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Sanctions

Opinion: Bishkek Between Sanctions and Africa: The Quiet Architecture of Proxy Sovereignty

The official visit of Togo’s head of government, Faure Gnassingbé, to Kyrgyzstan on April 28–30 should not be read as an isolated diplomatic event. It is taking place inside an unusually dense cluster of activity: the SCO Council of Defence Ministers, the presence of China’s defence minister, the fifth meeting of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) digital and ICT ministers, and a parallel SCO Forum on Artificial Intelligence. Bishkek, in other words, was not simply hosting an African leader. It was presenting itself — intentionally or not — as a Eurasian platform where security, digital governance, AI, transport, tourism, and external partnerships intersect. This geometry deserves attention. Bishkek as a Digital Interface Over the past several years, Kyrgyzstan has worked to reposition itself — not only as a mountainous transit country, but as a provider of digital state capacity: e-government tools, secure documents, digital identification, fintech infrastructure, and special financial regimes such as the proposed Tamchy special financial and investment territory, which combines Kyrgyz sovereignty with elements of English law and international arbitration. For many African countries, this offer can be attractive. Governments across the continent are looking for administrative modernization, digital sovereignty, and alternatives to legacy Western-controlled infrastructure. For Bishkek, such partnerships offer something equally valuable: visibility, geopolitical relevance, and an opportunity to export state technology beyond Central Asia. Togo is a particularly interesting test case. Lomé is one of West Africa’s important maritime and logistical hubs, with access not only to the Gulf of Guinea but, indirectly, to the Sahel region — Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger — where Russia has expanded its security footprint. If Kyrgyz digital infrastructure were to enter this corridor, it would not be a minor technical export. It would connect a Central Asian jurisdiction to one of Africa’s most strategically sensitive zones. It must be said honestly: this remains a hypothesis. Public information about specific Kyrgyz digital products being offered to Togo remains limited. But the political signal is difficult to ignore: Bishkek is not approaching this visit as a routine bilateral courtesy. The Russia Question There is a more sensitive layer to this picture. Kyrgyzstan is a close partner of Russia. Russia, in turn, is under heavy Western sanctions and is searching for alternative financial, commercial, and logistical routes. This creates a natural suspicion that Kyrgyz digital and financial infrastructure could — directly or indirectly — become useful to Russian-linked actors. This does not mean every Kyrgyz initiative abroad is directed from Moscow. That reading is too simplistic. A more precise framing is this: Kyrgyzstan may be becoming part of a distributed sanctions-era infrastructure in which Russian, Chinese, Central Asian, and Global South interests increasingly overlap. In this sense, Bishkek may not be a “front office” for Russia alone. It may be emerging as a Eurasian adapter — a jurisdiction through which larger actors can interact with sensitive markets under a less toxic, more flexible brand. A7A5 and the Closing Window The crypto-financial dimension makes this issue urgent. A7A5, a ruble-pegged stablecoin issued...

1 month ago

Gold

Kyrgyz Jewelers to Receive Discounted Gold as Government Expands Industry Support

Kyrgyzstan’s Cabinet of Ministers has approved a package of support measures for the jewelry industry, implementing a directive from President Sadyr Japarov aimed at improving producers’ access to raw materials. Earlier, Japarov instructed the government to ensure that jewelers could obtain raw materials from the State Fund of Precious Metals and Precious Stones on more favorable terms. Under the new resolution, Kyrgyz jewelry manufacturers will be able to purchase domestically produced gold from the state at a 2% discount to the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) fixing price. The State Fund will supply precious metals to jewelers in raw form, without the right of resale. To purchase gold, companies must either sign a direct contract with the fund or acquire the metal through a commodity exchange. Jewelers will also be granted deferred payment terms of up to 180 days. Transactions will be conducted at market prices in the national currency, the som. Access to gold scrap and refined bullion will be limited to companies operating under a special tax regime, with confirmed production capacity and compliance with requirements for accounting and the targeted use of raw materials. In addition, the government has approved a preferential lending mechanism for the jewelry sector. Authorities will subsidize interest rates on loans issued by state-owned banks, with approximately $11.5 million allocated to the program. The maximum loan amount will be $1 million, with a term of up to 60 months. The interest rate is set at 6% per annum, with a possible payment deferral of up to 180 days. Funds may be used for production modernization, equipment purchases, and the upgrading of manufacturing facilities. Eligible borrowers include legal entities and individual entrepreneurs registered with the State Tax Service. “The implementation of these initiatives will create a sustainable foundation for the development of the jewelry industry and increase its contribution to the national economy,” the Ministry of Economy and Commerce said in a statement, adding that the measures are expected to reduce costs, expand production, and create jobs. Stalbek Akmatov, head of the Kyrgyz Jewelers Association, told The Times of Central Asia that the industry had been advocating for such measures for many years. According to him, local producers were previously forced to purchase domestic gold at prices about 5% above London market levels, making imports from Russia and Turkey more common, despite higher logistics costs. “Now the situation will change, and the industry has real prospects for development,” Akmatov said.

1 month ago

Sergio Gor

U.S. Envoy Gor Meets Rahmon in Tajikistan for Trade, Security Talks

Tajik President Emomali Rahmon met Special Envoy of the President of the United States for South and Central Asia Sergio Gor in Dushanbe on April 28 for talks focused on trade, investment, security, and the next stage of cooperation under the C5+1 framework. Gor also met Tajik Foreign Minister Sirojiddin Muhriddin during the visit. “Just landed in Tajikistan!” Gor wrote on X. “Excellent meeting with Foreign Minister Sirojiddin Muhriddin in Dushanbe on deepening U.S.-Tajikistan ties. Excited to build a stronger partnership that delivers greater security and prosperity for both our countries.” The U.S. Embassy in Dushanbe said Gor’s meetings would continue over the next few days. According to the Tajik president’s press service, the meeting with President Rahmon covered the current state of bilateral relations and prospects for expanding cooperation. Particular attention was given to agreements reached through the C5+1 dialogue, which brings together the United States and the five Central Asian states. Rahmon said Tajikistan is interested in expanding ties with Washington in areas of mutual interest, noting that the United States is among Tajikistan’s top five investment partners. The sides discussed the use of the Trade and Investment Framework Agreement, known as TIFA, as a tool for developing practical cooperation. The talks pointed to several sectors where Dushanbe hopes to attract greater U.S. involvement. These include hydropower, mining, mineral processing, light industry, food production, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals. Tajikistan has long promoted its hydropower potential as a basis for regional energy trade and industrial development, while mining and processing are increasingly tied to wider U.S. interest in critical minerals and supply-chain diversification. Digital cooperation also featured, with the two sides identifying artificial intelligence, digital infrastructure, and the wider digitalization of the economy as promising areas for cooperation. They also discussed the creation of joint ventures to process agricultural products for export and attract investment. The Tajik Foreign Ministry said Muhriddin and Gor discussed political, economic, investment, humanitarian, and security cooperation. It said they also exchanged views on the regional situation, emphasizing stability and the prevention of humanitarian risks. “Particular attention was paid to the need for coordinated efforts in addressing modern challenges and threats, including terrorism, extremism, and drug trafficking,” the ministry said. Security remains a central part of Tajikistan’s relationship with Washington. Tajikistan shares a long border with Afghanistan, where narcotics trafficking, militant activity, and cross-border violence have repeatedly tested Dushanbe’s security forces. Earlier this month, Tajikistan said its security forces killed two alleged drug smugglers from Afghanistan who crossed into the Farkhor district of the Khatlon region. The State Committee for National Security said the group was trying to smuggle 25 kilograms of hashish. The Afghan border has also become a concern for foreign investors. In late 2025, several Chinese workers were killed in attacks launched from Afghan territory, prompting China to urge Tajikistan to strengthen protection for Chinese citizens and businesses. The attacks sharpened attention on Tajikistan’s ability to secure border areas where foreign-backed infrastructure and mining projects are expanding. Cooperation has also extended into health....

1 month ago

Social protection

How Kazakhstan Is Using Big Data to Reshape Its Social Protection System

Kazakhstan is accelerating its transition to a digital model of social protection, integrating government databases and introducing algorithmic oversight to improve the targeting of welfare payments and reduce corruption risks. In spring 2026, the merger of databases between the Ministry of Labor and tax authorities was completed, marking a key stage of the reform. Authorities view this process not only as a technological upgrade but as a shift in the principles governing interaction between the state and citizens. Historically, the country’s system of distributing social benefits has faced challenges related to the misuse of funds. In 2020, the Supreme Audit Chamber identified violations in the implementation of the “Enbek” employment program, resulting in significant budget losses. In subsequent years, auditors continued to record similar cases. A report for 2023-2024 noted that targeted social assistance was being received by citizens who concealed their actual incomes. According to anti-corruption authorities, approximately $50 billion has been allocated to social support over the past five years, of which around $6.5 billion was used inefficiently. The lack of transparent oversight enabled abuses, including fictitious employment schemes and payments to so-called “ghost recipients.” A turning point came with the introduction of digital oversight. Since 2024, Kazakhstan has been integrating databases and automating processes. According to official reports, the implementation of digital tools helped prevent financial violations amounting to approximately $45 billion in 2025 alone. At the core of the system is the transition to the international ISO 20022 standard, enabling real-time data processing. Since 2026, algorithms have been automatically assessing citizens’ eligibility for social benefits without the involvement of officials, significantly reducing opportunities for fraudulent claims. One example is a grant program for low-income citizens to start businesses, with grants of up to approximately $3,800. Funds are now transferred directly to suppliers, while transactions are monitored by tax authorities. If inconsistencies are detected, payments are automatically canceled. Similar mechanisms are being applied in subsidized employment programs. The system is also integrated with the “Social Wallet” project and the digital tenge platform. Payments are programmed through smart contracts, restricting their use to predefined purposes such as purchasing food, medicines, or paying utility bills. In addition, algorithms track changes in the income of unemployment benefit recipients. If commercial activity is detected, payments are automatically terminated. Despite these advances, experts warn of potential risks. International experience shows that such systems can both improve efficiency and lead to errors. In Denmark, algorithms are used to provide proactive support, automatically offering benefits when life circumstances change. In Australia, however, a similar system wrongly accused citizens of welfare fraud, triggering lawsuits and a political crisis. Analysts note that the effectiveness of digital systems depends on their design: they perform better when focused on identifying those in need, rather than solely detecting violations.

1 month ago

Afghanistan

A View from Afghanistan: Silk Seven Plus a New Framework for Regional Integration

In recent years, regional integration has increasingly become a key instrument in countries’ economic and foreign policy strategies. This is particularly relevant for Central Asia, a landlocked region facing structural constraints in accessing global markets. In this context, the Silk Seven Plus (S7+) initiative, recently introduced by the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy, has drawn attention. The concept is currently being promoted in Washington. According to its authors, the initiative has received “overwhelming bipartisan support from leading members of the House of Representatives and the Senate.” S7+ is positioned as a multi-stage framework for regional coordination centered on the countries of Central Asia, with plans for gradual expansion, first to Afghanistan and Azerbaijan, and potentially later to Pakistan. The initiative appears to propose a new model of cooperation focused on developing transport connectivity, facilitating trade, and coordinating economic policy among countries in Central and South Asia, as well as neighboring regions. Unlike traditional integration formats, S7+ is designed as a flexible, network-based framework rather than a rigid institutional structure. It functions more as a platform for practical cooperation, including the development of transit routes, the digitization of customs procedures, the reduction of logistics costs, and the expansion of trade and investment flows. This approach allows countries to participate voluntarily and at varying levels of engagement. Within this model, Central Asia is viewed as a key region for the formation of new economic linkages. Strengthening transport connectivity, diversifying trade routes, and reducing dependence on a limited number of corridors could enhance the resilience of regional economies and support deeper integration into global supply chains. Afghanistan holds particular significance within the S7+ framework. Geographically, it lies at the crossroads of Central Asia, South Asia, and the Middle East, positioning it as a potential transit bridge. The development of routes through Afghanistan could shorten transport distances and improve regional logistics efficiency. In practice, however, this potential faces significant constraints. Key challenges include underdeveloped infrastructure, institutional limitations, and a lack of international recognition. These factors restrict Afghanistan’s ability to fully participate in multilateral initiatives and limit its access to investment and financial resources. At the same time, the flexibility of the S7+ format may create opportunities for Afghanistan’s gradual involvement. Unlike formal organizations, the initiative allows participation on a project-by-project basis without requiring full institutional integration. This aligns with the country’s current model of external engagement, where practical cooperation continues despite the absence of formal recognition. A comparison between S7+ and traditional regional formats highlights key differences. Existing frameworks, such as regional cooperation programs, typically rely on formal agreements and institutional mechanisms. In contrast, S7+ emphasizes flexibility, pragmatism, and the implementation of specific projects, potentially reducing political sensitivities and prioritizing economic interests. In a broader geopolitical context, interpretations of the initiative vary. For some external actors, it may signal the emergence of alternative transport routes and reduced dependence on established corridors. For others, it represents a complementary element within existing economic strategies. In any case, S7+ reflects intensifying competition over the development...

1 month ago

Water Scarcity

Opinion: As Water Runs Short, Uzbekistan Faces New Migration Pressure

In the 21st century, Uzbekistan is no longer just confronting an ecological crisis - it is on the verge of socio-political transformations driven by water. As agricultural lands are being degraded and river flows are decreasing, the country is now facing what experts describe as a “slow-onset disaster”: internal climate migration. The roots of this crisis go back to the tragedy of the Aral Sea, once the world’s fourth-largest lake, which has shrunk to roughly 10% of its original area since the 1960s largely due to Soviet-era irrigation projects. The human toll has been enormous: not only is agriculture in decline, but the lives of the people living in the Aral Sea region have been profoundly altered. Each year, storms lift an estimated 15 million to 75 million tons of sand, dust, and salt from the dried Aral seabed, spreading it across Uzbekistan and the wider region. Now, another challenge is looming - the water supply. In 2018, 79,942 internally displaced people were reported in Uzbekistan. The dwindling water supply and the threat to agro-ecosystems are creating a new generation of climate migrants. The number of climate-related displacements is expected to reach 200,000 in the coming years. The Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers, Uzbekistan’s hydrological lifelines, are under growing strain from climate change, inefficient irrigation, and transboundary water-distribution pressures. Experts warn that the country's water deficit could reach 7 billion cubic meters by 2030, and 15 billion cubic meters by 2050. The World Bank predicts that Uzbekistan's economy could shrink by 10% by 2050 if no meaningful action is taken to adapt to climate change. Now, another new factor threatens to accelerate this trend. The Taliban government in Afghanistan is building the Qosh Tepa Canal, a 285-kilometer irrigation project that will divert water from the Amu Darya River. According to Rieks Bosch, an international expert on natural resources and economics, the canal will divert 20% of the Amu Darya's water, which will exacerbate water shortages in some parts of Uzbekistan and negatively affect agriculture. "In any case, Uzbekistan will definitely suffer," he said. Analyses show that up to 250,000 people could lose their jobs in agriculture as a result of water shortages. The most vulnerable regions - Bukhara, Khorezm, Karakalpakstan, Surkhandarya, and Kashkadarya - are located mainly in rural areas and depend on agriculture and livestock. With almost half of Uzbekistan’s population living outside urban centers, the loss of agricultural viability is not just an economic problem; it is the disruption of a way of life. “Water scarcity, air pollution, biodiversity loss, and a sharp decline in agricultural productivity are constantly increasing,” President Shavkat Mirziyoyev said at COP 28, acknowledging that these problems are “reaching their “critical peak.” Yet policy responses are still lagging behind the pace of environmental change. Uzbekistan’s climate migration problem cannot be solved by managing water resources alone. This requires a new strategic framework – a “Water-Migration-Security” strategy that combines regional cooperation, innovative water-saving technologies in agriculture, and proactive adaptation measures for the communities most at...

1 month ago

TCA Interviews

Kazakhstan’s Ruslan Kurbanov on Reaching the World Fencing Elite

Ruslan Kurbanov is a Kazakhstani épée fencer, a Master of Sport of International Class in Kazakhstan, a World Cup medalist, a two-time World Championships bronze medalist, and a two-time Olympian. He began his journey in a children’s fencing club in Ust-Kamenogorsk and has since risen to fourth in the world rankings. Today, he competes on the biggest stages, where a single touch can decide the outcome of a bout and the pressure from the stands can be overwhelming. In an interview with The Times of Central Asia, he explains how he handles that pressure, maintains focus amid crowd noise, and stays in control when everything is at stake. TCA: Congratulations, you’ve already won two World Cup medals this year, gold and silver. That’s an impressive result. Ruslan: Thank you. I’m pleased with these medals because, in reality, very few athletes can deliver consistent results across two consecutive competitions. TCA: How did you manage it? Ruslan: With experience, you gradually learn more about your body and how to prepare for competitions. You also become more familiar with the fencing world, you get to know many athletes, understand their strengths and weaknesses, study them, and prepare accordingly. Over time, you mature as an athlete and become more consistent. You develop a clear understanding of the level of results you are capable of. [caption id="attachment_47744" align="aligncenter" width="300"] @kazfencing.kz[/caption] TCA: You won silver in Astana. Do home conditions give you an advantage? Ruslan: There are two sides to that. On the one hand, the advantages are obvious: you’re at home, with familiar food, climate, and time zone, all of which help you prepare in a comfortable environment. On the other hand, there is pressure. When you compete at home, people expect you to deliver your best result. TCA: So winning a medal was a must? Ruslan: Of course. But I also had another goal. This was the first World Cup event held in Kazakhstan, and I understood that many local spectators would attend, perhaps seeing fencing for the first time. First impressions are crucial. People either fall in love with the sport or they don’t. For me, it was important to present fencing at its best, dynamic, exciting, and worthy. Maybe “present” is too strong a word, but I wanted people, especially children, to feel inspired, to have that spark. When kids see victories and the emotions athletes experience afterward, they start thinking, “I want that too,” and they come into the sport. TCA: Do you think you managed to inspire them? Ruslan: I hope so. After the final, when I stepped off the piste, many children came up to me, and parents asked for photos and autographs. It’s very rewarding to see that it resonated with someone and may have stayed with them. TCA: You were ranked seventh in the world? Ruslan: Now I’m fourth. After the tournament in Astana, I moved up to fourth place. TCA: In the final, you lost only to Ukraine’s Roman Svichkar. Do they have a particularly strong...

2 months ago

EU Sanctions

EU Sanctions Put Kyrgyzstan’s Transit Trade Under Scrutiny

The European Union has stepped up sanctions pressure on Kyrgyzstan by restricting supplies of sensitive technologies and imposing measures on the country’s financial institutions. The decision, adopted as part of the EU’s 20th sanctions package against Russia, reflects growing concerns in Brussels that the Central Asian republic may be used as a transit hub to circumvent restrictions. The move marks a shift in the EU’s approach, from diplomatic warnings to tighter controls on trade and financial channels in third countries. A key argument for Brussels has been trade data. According to European Commission materials, imports of sensitive goods from the EU to Kyrgyzstan surged by nearly 800% in 2025 compared to pre-war levels. Meanwhile, exports of similar goods from Kyrgyzstan to Russia rose by approximately 1,200%. European officials say this dynamic indicates a systemic pattern of re-exports. As a result, the EU has added Kyrgyzstan to its list of countries posing a “systematic and persistent” risk of sanctions circumvention, a designation previously applied only selectively. The restrictions primarily target dual-use goods. These include metalworking machinery and numerically controlled equipment, as well as a wide range of telecommunications devices, from routers and modems to data, voice, and image transmission equipment. According to the EU, these categories present the highest risk of being used by Russia’s defense-industrial complex. European exporters will face tougher checks to show that sensitive goods are not likely to be re-exported to Russia. This creates an additional administrative barrier and raises risks for businesses. For many companies, the effect is a ‘presumption of guilt’ regime around trade with Kyrgyzstan. The sanctions package also affects the country’s financial system. Keremet Bank and Capital Bank have been included in the restrictions, which are set to take effect in May 2026. Particular attention has been paid to the cryptocurrency sector. The EU has sanctioned TengriCoin, a Bishkek-registered entity linked to the Meer platform, which European regulators say facilitated trading in a stablecoin affiliated with Russia’s Promsvyazbank. This move signals the EU’s expanding sanctions policy into digital financial instruments increasingly used to bypass traditional restrictions. Additional measures affect the transport sector. Several Kyrgyz logistics companies have been restricted from accessing European infrastructure, including ports and transport networks. This is likely to increase shipping costs and complicate foreign trade operations, putting additional pressure on export-oriented businesses. Analysts also warn of a potential shortage of European industrial equipment on the Kyrgyz market. The risk of secondary sanctions may lead EU suppliers to withdraw even from legitimate transactions. The tightening of sanctions comes amid intensified foreign policy engagement by Kyrgyzstan. On the day the package was approved, President Sadyr Japarov reaffirmed a strategic partnership with Vladimir Putin during a visit to Moscow. At the same time, Bishkek is strengthening cooperation within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), preparing to host a summit and receive high-level delegations, including Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun. Kyrgyz authorities have previously criticized EU sanctions policy. Japarov has described it as unjustified and as pressure that hampers economic development. Despite a series...

2 months ago

Aviation

Varesh Airlines to Resume Some Tajikistan Flights during Uneasy Ceasefire

Iranian carrier Varesh Airlines says it will resume flights between the Iranian city of Mashhad and Dushanbe, Tajikistan´s capital, on Friday. The planned resumption reflects a partial easing of tensions during a ceasefire between Iran and the United States, though uncertainty remains over any plans for peace talks as well as the prospects for safe shipping in the contested Strait of Hormuz. Mashhad is a northeastern Iranian city near the border with Turkmenistan and a significant hub for trade with Central Asia, which has been disrupted by the Mideast fighting in the past weeks. The city is about 850 kilometers from Dushanbe. “Mashhad - Dushanbe - Mashhad flights will operate from Friday, April 24,” Varesh Airlines said on Instagram. It announced similar plans to reopen the route between Tehran and Muscat, Oman. The Iranian carrier also suspended flights during regional fighting last year. Somon Air, a Tajikistan-based carrier, had said it was increasing the frequency of flights between Dushanbe and Tehran starting early last year. But it also had to suspend Iran flights last month because of the war.

2 months ago

Credit Ratings

Kyrgyz Authorities Seek Review of Sovereign Credit Rating

Kyrgyzstan’s Minister of Economy and Commerce, Bakyt Sydykov, held talks with analysts in Washington on the sidelines of the Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group, where the country’s macroeconomic stability was discussed. According to Sydykov, Bishkek is seeking an upgrade to its sovereign credit rating as part of the implementation of the National Development Program through 2030. He noted that engagement with Moody’s is aimed at strengthening international investor confidence and forms part of an ongoing institutional dialogue. Sydykov said the country is meeting its obligations within the framework of cooperation with the agency and expects further constructive information exchange. He also recalled that last year Moody’s revised Kyrgyzstan’s outlook to “positive” while maintaining the rating at B3, which authorities interpreted as confirmation of ongoing reforms. The minister added that the country’s economy has grown at an annual rate of 9.5-11% over the past four years, driven by investment, domestic demand, and activity in construction, services, and industry. Following the meeting with Moody’s, Sydykov also held talks with representatives of U.S. businesses, presenting investment opportunities in logistics, transport infrastructure, and energy, including hydropower. According to the National Statistical Committee of Kyrgyzstan, investment in fixed capital increased by 25% year-on-year in the first quarter, reaching 77.3 billion KGS ($883.4 million). Domestic investment rose by 20%, while foreign investment increased by 50%. For comparative sovereign risk ratings on Central Asia see TCA's Central Asia Balance Sheet.

2 months ago

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