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Demographics

Kazakhstan’s Demographic Shift Puts Labor Market Under Strain

Kazakhstan’s population surpassed 20.5 million in the spring of 2026, but the country’s rapid demographic growth is increasingly being accompanied by structural economic imbalances. Kazakhstan is simultaneously facing the effects of declining birth rates, population aging, and a widening gap between the education system and labor market needs. Economists warn that the country is entering a phase in which the large generation born during the baby boom of the 2000s is placing growing pressure on the labor market, even as the share of the working-age population gradually declines. According to Kazakhstan’s Bureau of National Statistics, the number of births peaked in 2021, when 446,500 children were born. By 2025, this figure had fallen to 335,000, the lowest level in the past five years. The total fertility rate also declined to 2.57 children per woman, marking the lowest level since 2009. The decline in births has occurred despite a growing number of women of reproductive age. By early 2026, their number had reached a record 4.79 million. Analysts note that the drop in the overall birth rate to 16.43 births per 1,000 people, the lowest level in more than two decades, points to changing household behavioral patterns. In Kazakhstan’s largest cities, including Almaty and Astana, families are increasingly postponing childbirth because of high housing costs and rising debt burdens. The average age of motherhood has approached 30 years, reaching 29.9. High inflation is adding further pressure on households. Annual inflation remained in double digits in early 2026, which, combined with mortgage expenses, has made raising large families significantly less affordable for the urban middle class. Kazakhstan’s demographic dynamics are also becoming increasingly uneven. In the southern and western regions, fertility rates remain above the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. However, in northern regions, fertility has declined to between 1.63 and 1.75, approaching levels more typical of Eastern European countries. Population growth is still supported by rising life expectancy and relatively low mortality, around 6.64 deaths per 1,000 people over the past four years. Nevertheless, demographers warn that the current increase in population masks a gradual future decline in the labor force. One of the key risks is the shrinking share of the working-age population. Over the past decade, it has fallen from 64% to 57.7%, increasing pressure on employed citizens to finance pension and social welfare systems. Experts warn that a decline in the number of contributors paying mandatory social contributions creates long-term risks for Kazakhstan’s Unified Accumulative Pension Fund and the Social Health Insurance Fund. At the same time, an aging population is increasing state healthcare expenditures. Businesses are already facing labor shortages in some industrial and agricultural regions. In the North Kazakhstan Region, employers have reported shortages in agriculture, manufacturing, and other key sectors. Kazakhstan adds more than 350,000 new labor market entrants each year, thanks to the generation born in the early 2000s. However, instead of entering industry or agriculture, many young people are increasingly choosing jobs in the urban service economy, including taxi services, delivery...

11 hours ago

TCA Interviews

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister on Kazakhstan, Trade, and War

As Kyiv works to rebuild ties across Central Asia, Kazakhstan has become one of Ukraine’s most important regional interlocutors. The relationship has been shaped by war, trade disruption, humanitarian support, and the search for new transport routes linking Asia and Europe. The Times of Central Asia has previously reported on Ukraine’s efforts to deepen engagement with Central Asia and on Astana and Kyiv’s attempts to restore trade ties. In an interview with TCA, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha discussed Kazakhstan’s role in this changing landscape, the prospects for economic cooperation, the Middle Corridor, post-war reconstruction, and the humanitarian and cultural ties connecting the two countries. TCA: Against the backdrop of shifts in global politics and Central Asia’s growing role, Ukraine has been deepening its dialogue with the region. How are these relations being translated into practical cooperation in politics, economics, and the humanitarian sphere? Foreign Minister Sybiha: Ukraine and Kazakhstan share a long-standing, traditionally friendly relationship, not only at a governmental level, but also between our peoples. My own family history is directly connected with Kazakhstan. My father worked in your wonderful country, in Kostanay. Many of his friends still live there. He often told me that he dreams of returning one day to see them again. Personally, I associate Kazakhstan with many warm memories, including your unique cuisine. I love qazy; it is an incredibly delicious dish. Kazakhstan possesses a rich and distinctive culture, language, and national identity. I greatly admire how all of this continues to develop in modern Kazakhstan, especially how young people are embracing traditions and striving to preserve and enrich them. This is a sign of a strong nation that knows its roots and therefore has a future. Kostanay is also linked to the story of our outstanding writer, Mykola Khvylovy, who lived and worked there for a period of time. You see how much connects our countries, even if we take just one city as an example. Unfortunately, there are tragic chapters as well. It was in Kostanay that our world-renowned orientalist, Slavic scholar, and one of the founders of the Ukrainian Academy of Sciences, Ahatanhel Krymsky, died in imprisonment. Those were terrible times, a painful past from which we must draw the right conclusions for the present and the future. Turning to politics and global issues, I would emphasize the following: all our efforts are aimed at achieving peace. This war cannot be ended solely on the battlefield; Ukraine understands this very realistically. The question is whether Moscow is finally prepared to understand it as well. It is time to end the war and move toward diplomacy. Today, Ukrainians are defending their homes and their children with weapons in their hands against unprovoked aggression. This is an existential struggle for the future of the next generations and for the right to remain Ukrainian. This struggle did not begin four and a half or even twelve years ago. Russia’s strategic objective is to complete what the Russian Empire began and what the Soviet Union...

12 hours ago

Industrial Production

Kyrgyzstan’s Industrial Output Rises as Employment Falls

Industrial production in Kyrgyzstan has increased more than six times over the past 15 years, although the sector’s share of the national economy has declined and employment in industry has fallen sharply, according to data from the National Statistical Committee. By the end of 2025, industry accounted for 17.7% of Kyrgyzstan’s GDP, compared to 20.7% in 2010. At the same time, industrial output increased by more than 530% over the same period. In 2010, the value of industrial production was estimated at around $1.4 billion, while by 2025 output had reached approximately $9.1 billion. The figures indicate significant industrial growth, although other sectors of the economy, particularly trade and services, have expanded even faster, analysts say. The sector has also experienced a sharp decline in employment. Around 268,000 people worked in industry in 2010, but by 2025 that number had fallen to 144,000. At the same time, the number of industrial enterprises increased from roughly 2,000 to 2,400, which statisticians say points to structural changes and rising productivity. Manufacturing remains the backbone of Kyrgyzstan’s industrial sector, accounting for nearly 80% of all industrial enterprises. The country’s main industrial segments include food processing, textile production, construction materials, and primary raw-material processing, including metallurgy. High-tech industries such as machinery manufacturing, electronics, and advanced chemical processing remain underdeveloped. Energy accounts for around 10.2% of industrial production, while mining contributes 9.2%. Economists note that much of Kyrgyzstan’s processing industry still produces goods with relatively low added value. The raw materials sector, particularly gold mining, continues to be one of the main drivers of industrial growth despite its comparatively modest share in the overall production structure. At the same time, energy development remains one of the biggest constraints on further industrialization. Despite active construction of solar and wind power plants, small hydropower stations, and implementation of the large Kambar-Ata-1 hydropower project, Kyrgyzstan continues to face electricity shortages during the winter season. The energy deficit limits the launch of energy-intensive industries and continues to restrain investment inflows into the industrial sector.

1 day ago

IPO

IPO as a Lifeline: Who Will Pay for Kazakhstan Railways’ Growing Debt?

The planned IPO of Kazakhstan’s national railway operator, Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (KTZ), once presented by the authorities as one of the largest public offerings in Central Asia, is increasingly being viewed as an attempt to stabilize the company’s balance sheet amid rapidly rising debt. The share sale, expected in late 2026, may turn out to be less a growth story than a mechanism for refinancing the obligations of the state-owned carrier. During parliamentary hearings on April 24, company executives acknowledged that one of the key objectives of the IPO is to raise funds to service KTZ’s growing debt burden. According to official company and government data, KTZ’s nominal debt has risen sharply. It stood at about $5.7 billion in early 2024, and roughly $8 billion by 2025. By April 2026, it had reached 4.7 trillion tenge, or about $10.4 billion. The increase reflects heavy borrowing for rolling stock, infrastructure modernization, and the expansion of Kazakhstan’s transit capacity, including projects linked to the Middle Corridor. It also reflects the cost of maintaining below-market tariffs for socially important domestic freight. Kazakhstan’s Supreme Audit Chamber warned as early as 2024 about risks related to the company’s financial sustainability. However, the authorities and KTZ management argue that large-scale borrowing was necessary to prevent an infrastructure crisis. According to official estimates, borrowed funds include about $4.9 billion for renewing rolling stock, including locomotives and railcars, and about $2.3 billion for modernizing railway infrastructure. The currency structure of the debt represents an additional vulnerability. More than half of the company’s obligations are denominated in foreign currencies, making KTZ highly sensitive to fluctuations in the tenge. Any weakening of the national currency automatically increases debt servicing costs and reduces the operator’s profitability. Potential investors face another challenge: historically, KTZ has served not only as a commercial company but also as an instrument of state social policy. A substantial share of revenues from China-Europe transit freight is used to subsidize unprofitable domestic passenger transport and the transportation of socially important goods within Kazakhstan. This cross-subsidization mechanism limits the company’s ability to generate free cash flow. Grain transportation under regulated tariffs alone generated losses of approximately $95 million (44 billion tenge) for KTZ in 2024. In an effort to improve the company’s attractiveness ahead of the IPO, KTZ has initiated large-scale tariff increases for mainline railway services. Beginning in April 2026, transportation tariffs for coal, grain, and iron ore were doubled. However, the move risks adding to costs in Kazakhstan, where railway tariffs directly affect the cost of food, electricity, and industrial goods. Annual inflation stood at 12.2% in January 2026, adding to concerns that higher railway tariffs could feed into wider price pressures. Additional inflationary pressure may come from the expiration of the government’s moratorium on utility tariff increases, after which household utility bills in some regions could rise by 10-20%. Against this backdrop, analysts do not rule out a return to tighter state regulation of tariffs, a development that could once again limit the ability of natural...

1 day ago

Oil Prices

Opinion: Kazakhstan, Oil, the Iran War and Dutch Disease

In 1977, The Economist coined a new term for the (potential) negative consequences of a short-term boom in natural resources: “Dutch disease.” The phenomenon got its name from an analysis of the decline of the manufacturing sector in the Netherlands following the 1960s natural gas discoveries at Groningen, in the northeastern Netherlands. The theory was that a surge in the price of a natural resource like oil or gas would likely cause currency appreciation, making imports cheaper and other sectors, like manufacturing, less competitive. Whether the recent spike in oil prices will contribute to Dutch disease in oil-rich Kazakhstan will likely depend on the length of the Iran war’s effect on oil prices (which could last well beyond the end of the conflict itself) and the government’s stewardship of Kazakhstan’s economy. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev deserves credit for the government’s efforts to diversify the national economy. Investing in the nation’s manufacturing base, especially SMEs, educating the Kazakh workforce, and improving healthcare are all helping broaden the Kazakh economy and reduce the country’s dependence on oil. But oil is the main driver of Kazakhstan’s wealth, and while other sectors are increasing their share of Kazakhstan’s economy, oil and the wider extractive sector remain central to public finances, accounting for over 40% of government revenues. So, let’s do a deep dive on Kazakhstan’s oil. Most of Kazakhstan’s oil comes from the west of the country, including the Tengiz field near the Caspian Sea and the offshore Kashagan field in the northern Caspian. The Tengiz oil field is one of the deepest and largest oil fields in the world, while Kashagan, an offshore deposit, ranks as one of the largest global oil discoveries since the 1960s. Kazakhstan’s main export blend, CPC Blend, is a light, sweet crude, a desirable oil type that’s easy to refine into gasoline and diesel. Because the Iran war and restrictions around the Strait of Hormuz have disrupted tanker traffic and raised fears of supply shortages, global oil prices have climbed. And while high oil prices are generally a net positive for Kazakhstan, the current price - Brent crude was trading above $100 per barrel in mid-May 2026 - could present problems. In the short term, high oil prices tend to boost government revenues and budget surpluses. They can increase inflows to Kazakhstan’s National Fund, depending on production, tax receipts, transfers, and government withdrawal policy, and provide resources for government spending on infrastructure and social programs. They can also stimulate demand in related sectors, boosting Kazakhstan’s oil-related industries. And since oil exports typically make up more than half of the nation’s export revenues, high oil prices generally lead to a rise in Kazakhstan’s GDP. So far, so good. But high oil prices also carry risks. For one thing, they can strengthen the tenge and add to domestic demand, especially if higher revenues feed into faster government spending. Which is where Dutch disease comes in. As the stronger currency makes non-oil exports less competitive, capital and labor shift toward the energy...

2 days ago

United Nations

Trump and Tokayev Secure a Historic $4.2 Billion Locomotive Deal

Washington, D.C. – The United States and Kazakhstan have finalized the largest locomotive agreement in history, a $4.2 billion deal that underscores American industrial strength and deepens ties between the two nations. The announcement came following a call between President Donald Trump and Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, which officials say directly helped bring the deal across the finish line. The U.S. Department of Commerce confirmed that Pennsylvania-based Wabtec will supply about 300 Evolution Series locomotives, in kit form, to Kazakhstan’s state railway over the next decade. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick emphasized the scale of the export package, writing on X that the deal is “more than just a huge success story. It’s about American innovation leading the world, supporting thousands of jobs in TX & PA, and strengthening the U.S.–Kazakhstan partnership.” For Trump, the Pennsylvania tie is notable — the state is both home to Wabtec and a perennial battleground in presidential politics. What Trump and Tokayev said President Trump celebrated the breakthrough personally on Truth Social: “I just concluded a wonderful call with the Highly Respected President of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Jomart Kemeluly Tokayev. They have signed the largest Railroad Equipment Purchase in History, $4 Billion Dollars Worth of United States Locomotives and Rail Equipment”. He continued: “Congratulations to President Tokayev on his great purchase. This Country, and the World, was built on reliable, beautiful Railroads. Now they will be coming back, FAST!” Earlier in September, Trump had told reporters he had a “great conversation” with Tokayev — a remark that signaled improving ties between Washington and Astana ahead of the deal. On Sept. 22, the Commerce Department formally confirmed the $4.2 billion agreement. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, in a separate statement on X, emphasized that the leaders’ engagement helped pave the way and argued the deal strengthens an enhanced strategic partnership while embedding American technology in Eurasian connectivity. President Tokayev, for his part, has emphasized transport and logistics as central to Kazakhstan’s role as a “link between Europe and Asia,” calling for expanded rail infrastructure and modern customs systems. In July, amid tariff tensions, he assured Trump in a letter that Kazakhstan was “ready for constructive dialogue” and was confident a compromise could be reached — a posture that laid groundwork for the closer economic cooperation reflected in this deal. Why It Matters: Unlocking Regional Corridors to the West The locomotives will reinforce capacity along the Trans-Caspian “Middle Corridor,” a trade route carrying goods from Central Asia through the South Caucasus and into Europe—an alternative to Russian and Iranian transit that governments have accelerated since 2022. A critical gap in that chain was addressed through U.S.-brokered diplomacy in August 2025, when President Trump hosted Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev at the White House. The two leaders signed a peace declaration after decades of conflict and committed to reopening transport links, most notably a 42-kilometer passage through Armenia’s Syunik province, commonly called the Zangezur corridor or the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP). By...

8 months ago