Our People > Joe Luc Barnes

Joe Luc Barnes

Regional Editor and Journalist

Joe Luc Barnes is a British journalist and author who focuses on the countries of the former Soviet Union. He has a Master’s degree in Russian and East European Politics from the University of Oxford. His book, “Farewell to Russia: A Journey Through The Former USSR”, will be published by Elliott and Thompson in Spring 2026.

Articles

trans-Afghan railway

Icy Relations Between Pakistan and Afghanistan Threaten Central Asian Trade Plans

On November 25, the Afghan authorities accused Pakistan of a new round of airstrikes in eastern Afghanistan. The bombing killed nine children and a woman, injuring several others. The attacks are the latest escalation in rapidly worsening tensions between Islamabad and the Taliban-led government in Kabul, with key border crossings currently closed, and Afghan refugees being expelled from Pakistan. At the heart of the crisis is Pakistan’s claim that Kabul is providing support to the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (Pakistani Taliban, or TPP), a militant group seeking to topple Pakistan’s government and impose its strict interpretation of Islamic law. The fallout may ripple beyond bilateral relations, with significant consequences for Central Asian trade, particularly the Pakistan-Afghanistan-Uzbekistan plan for a Trans-Afghan railway. The planned 647-kilometer line is set to connect the northern Afghan city of Mazar-e-Sharif with Peshawar in Pakistan. When combined with existing infrastructure, this will mean that trains can travel from southern Uzbekistan all the way to the Pakistani ports of Gwadar and Karachi, granting landlocked Uzbekistan and Afghanistan a long-sought gateway to the Indian Ocean. But mounting instability, along with Islamabad’s willingness to shut borders as leverage, may now place the project in serious jeopardy. “The moment a state weaponizes geography, every financier in Tashkent, Moscow, or Beijing prices in risk, delays commitments, and quietly explores alternative alignments,” Anant Mishra, Marie Skłodowska-Curie Research Fellow at the International Centre for Policing and Security at the University of South Wales, told The Times of Central Asia. So, what are the prospects for salvaging the Trans-Afghan railway? How can Pakistan and Afghanistan de-escalate? And what does this turmoil mean for Central Asia’s wider economic ambitions? A sudden frost On July 17, Uzbekistan’s Transport Minister Ilkhom Makhkamov, Pakistan’s Railway Minister Muhammad Hanif Abbasi, and Afghanistan’s acting Public Works Minister Mohammad Esa Thani signed an agreement to conduct a feasibility study for the proposed railway. Many hoped the railway would presage a new era of fraternal relations between Central and South Asia. “Civil society, the intelligentsia, media, and business community of Pakistan have been loudly calling for intimate trade relations with the Central Asian Republics,” Khadim Hussain, Research Director at the Centre for Regional Policy and Dialogue (CRPD), Islamabad, told TCA. For Uzbekistan, which has aggressively pursued diversification of trade routes to reduce reliance on transit through Iran and Kazakhstan, the project promised a cheaper, faster corridor to global markets. According to Nargiza Umarova, Head of the Center for Strategic Connectivity at the Institute for Advanced International Studies, University of World Economy and Diplomacy in Tashkent, the trans-Afghan is one of two high-priority transport projects, along with the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway – work on which began in April 2025. But the ink had barely dried on the July accord when tensions between Afghanistan’s Taliban government and Islamabad began escalating, throwing the ambitious railway into doubt. [caption id="attachment_40211" align="aligncenter" width="1600"] Uzbek passenger and freight trains parked in Andijan; image: TCA, Joe Luc Barnes[/caption] In early October, Pakistan launched an airstrike in Kabul targeting the leader of the...

7 months ago

Transport

Metro Expansion Key to Almaty Infrastructure Plans

Next year, Almaty plans another incremental step in the development of its public transport infrastructure with the opening of a new station at Kalkaman. This should see the tentacles of the transport system shift towards the west of the city. In the future, there are also plans to extend the metro north to Alatau, where the government’s “smart city” is being developed. Investment in public transport is welcome, particularly with vocal complaints from residents about ever-increasing traffic problems and their contribution to the city’s winter smog. “The expansion of the metro is considered one of the key tools for improving the environmental situation in Almaty,” a spokesperson for the Almaty mayor’s office (or Akimat), told The Times of Central Asia. “Increasing the share of passenger transportation via the subway reduces the use of cars, decreases traffic congestion, lowers emissions, and contributes to improved air quality.” The ambitious new metro project is in addition to over 600 new buses expected to be added to the Almaty Bus fleet this year. But despite these schemes, the traffic problem shows little sign of abating. It begs the question: has the city got public transport priorities right? [caption id="attachment_39565" align="aligncenter" width="1600"] New-look trolleybuses and electro-buses can be seen as part of Almaty’s modern fleet; image: TCA, Joe Luc Barnes[/caption] The rise of the automobile “Traffic jams in Almaty began in the early 2000s, when the economic situation improved and people started buying cars,” Dauren Alimbekov, a high-profile blogger on Almaty transport, told The Times of Central Asia. He adds that the privatisation of other forms of public transport exacerbated this problem. The tram network was suspended in 2015 after two high-profile accidents, with the tracks being dismantled in 2017. Its disappearance coincided almost exactly with the arrival of ride-hailing services such as Yandex Go! in July 2016. By 2023, over 200,000 residents were moonlighting as Yandex Go! drivers to earn extra money. “In recent decades, the city has been planned with cars in mind, with major thoroughfares such as Al-Farabi almost totally lacking in convenient pedestrian crossings,” said Alimbekov. This influx of drivers has created problems. Private cars are a major contributor to air pollution in the city. On some days earlier this year, Almaty recorded the worst pollution in the world. [caption id="attachment_39564" align="aligncenter" width="1600"] A lack of dedicated bus lanes slows journey times and prevents more people from using public transport; image: TCA, Joe Luc Barnes[/caption] Public transport That is not to say that there is no public transport in the city. Indeed, the Almaty Metro is the only metro system in Central Asia to have opened since the collapse of communism. Trains began running in 2011, but they only travelled between an initial five stations. Two more opened in 2015, which saw a spike in passenger numbers. Today, there are eleven stations, although most of these remain along Abay Avenue, giving it little practical value to most residents. The metro system does not connect to either of the city’s main train...

8 months ago

Made in Kazakhstan: Building an AI for a Nation

On a cold November morning at Al-Farabi University in Almaty, students gathered in a drafty lecture hall, many still wrapped in their coats. The setting was more reminiscent of a forgotten Soviet-era classroom than a venue for cutting-edge technology. But amid the peeling paint and rickety seats, some of the country’s most ambitious young researchers had come to discuss Kazakhstan’s latest steps into the world of artificial intelligence. The star billing came from the Institute of Smart Systems and Artificial Intelligence (ISSAI) at Nazarbayev University in Astana. Last year, the institute released KazLLM, its first Large Language Model (LLM), to much fanfare, inspired by a philosophy of building AI systems that understand the country’s language and culture rather than borrowing second-hand from Silicon Valley. But can Kazakhstan keep pace in the global AI race? And despite the government’s efforts to back local products, can it convince the population to use them over Western alternatives? Recent developments The Institute’s founder, Doctor Huseyin Atakan Varol, was keen to stress that steps have been taken to develop Kazakhstan’s native AI ecosystem over the past twelve months. “Since the release of KazLLM last year, we have witnessed what I would describe as a ‘Cambrian explosion’ of generative AI development,” he told The Times of Central Asia. “The KazLLM project enabled us to create the team and amass the know-how to build a new generation of multilingual and multimodal models tailored to Kazakhstan’s needs.” Among these, he lists Oylan, a multimodal language–audio-vision model; MangiSoz, a multilingual speech and text translation engine; TilSync, a real-time subtitle and translation engine; and Beynele, a text-to-image generation model. All these models have been fine-tuned to better reflect Kazakh culture and linguistic norms. “In short, we are building AI made in Kazakhstan, by Kazakhstani youth, for Kazakhstan –models that understand the language, culture, and needs of the people,” said Amina Baikenova, ISSAI’s Acting Deputy Director of Product and External Affairs, in an interview with TCA. [caption id="attachment_39061" align="aligncenter" width="1600"] The old lecture hall at Al-Farabi University, Almaty; image: TCA, Joe Luc Barnes[/caption] Much of this progress stems from the enthusiasm of a generation of students, whom Kazakhstan has invested heavily in training. Indeed, the country has become a magnet for young researchers from across Central Asia. “After completing my bachelor’s degree in Kyrgyzstan, I was looking for opportunities to build my research career. That’s why I moved to Kazakhstan,” said Adam Erik, an ISSAI student from Bishkek. “Kazakhstan has become a scientific center of Central Asia.” Erik believes strongly in building local language models. “There is a thing called bias in data sets,” he said. “Models from the U.S., China, or Europe are incredible, but they’re trained mostly on Western culture and literature. Local solutions are still necessary.” These sentiments reflect a common frustration among researchers: even the best global AI systems stumble when asked about Kazakh idioms, rural social norms, or local history. The data used to train the world’s most powerful models rarely includes more than a sliver...

8 months ago

Identity

Petropavl – A City of Two Tales

No one seems to like the name Petropavl. The city, situated in northern Kazakhstan in a peninsula of territory that juts into Russian Siberia, has long lived between two worlds. From monuments to manhole covers, there have long been conflicting stories about who belongs here. In the Russian telling, the city was founded as a fortress on “empty steppe” in 1752 by Tsarist troops, named for Saints Peter and Paul – in Russian, Petropavlovsk. For over a century, it remained a frontier post that guarded the empire’s edge before the push into Central Asia in the mid-nineteenth century. Yet for Kazakhs, this place was never empty: long before the Cossacks came, nomadic Kazakhs from the Middle Zhuz grazed their herds here along the Ishim River, calling the place Qyzyljar – “the red ridge”. [caption id="attachment_38326" align="aligncenter" width="1600"] Manhole covers imprinted with Qyzyljar; image: TCA, Joe Luc Barnes[/caption] Since independence, Kazakhstan has restored the names of thousands of cities, towns, and villages across the country in order to give the land a more Kazakh stamp. But Qyzyljar has not returned. Instead, the authorities’ immediate solution has been to Kazakh-ify the Russian name, leaving us with Petropavl. It’s a fudge that satisfies no one, and the official name is rarely heard on the city streets. In this overwhelmingly Russian-speaking city, most continue to call it “Petropavlovsk,” or even “Piter,” echoing Saint Petersburg’s nickname. Ethnic Russians Ethnic Russians now make up just under half the population of the North Kazakhstan region. In individual cities such as Petropavl, the proportion is far higher, although official information is hard to come by. The boundaries of Kazakhstan’s provinces, or oblasts, were gerrymandered in 1997 to soften perceptions of Russian dominance, but a mere walk around the city makes it clear that about two-thirds of the population is not Kazakh. These numbers and the region’s proximity to Russia have long made it a focus of uneasy attention. When Moscow annexed Crimea in 2014, President Vladimir Putin remarked that Kazakhstan had “never had statehood” before Nursultan Nazarbayev, and Dmitri Medvedev called it an “artificial state” in 2022 (although he subsequently claimed to have been hacked). Other Russian lawmakers have called northern Kazakhstan “a gift from Russia,” while nationalist commentators as far back as Solzhenitsyn have called for Northern Kazakhstan to be “reunited” with Russia. Dr. Petr Oskolkov, affiliated researcher at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, was part of a team that undertook research on the ethnic Russian population in Kazakhstan in 2020-21, and believes that these fears are overblown. “Initially, there was a lack of public trust in the prospects of Kazakhstani statehood, especially among Russian-speakers. Nowadays, these doubts are absent,” he told The Times of Central Asia. “Moreover, the overall level of the identification with Kazakhstan, and the quality of life, have both grown significantly since the 1990s, so the idea [of separatism] has lost its main appeal.” [caption id="attachment_38320" align="aligncenter" width="1200"] Soviet mosaic; image: TCA, Joe Luc Barnes[/caption] Nevertheless, doom-mongers in Astana worry that Petropavlovsk...

8 months ago

Energy

Kazakhstan’s Two Futures on Display at Energy and Digital Forums in Astana

As the temperatures in Astana dipped below zero this week, the capital played host to two international gatherings that offered sharply contrasting visions of Kazakhstan’s future. On one bank of the Ishim River, industry veterans and government officials gathered for Kazakhstan Energy Week in the cavernous halls of the Independence Palace. Just across town, the Astana Digital Bridge forum drew swarms of young entrepreneurs and tech enthusiasts to the gleaming Expo Center. The Old Guard Assembles Energy Week opened at 10 a.m. sharp on Thursday, October 2nd. Beneath gold-and-jade ceilings, chandeliers clinging to them like stalactites, padded white leather chairs were lined up neatly on stage. They were filled by some of the oil industries leading lights; dark suits were de rigueur. Over lunch, a string quartet performed Gardel’s Por Una Cabeza, while the final evening saw delegates invited to see Verdi’s Rigoletto at Astana’s ostentatious opera house. The format was carefully stage managed. Executives delivered their speeches like lecturers at a school assembly, with the audience listening politely. Questions from the floor were not invited. There was a certain quiet bullishness amongst those present – the air of an industry that had been written off, but far from ready to concede relevance. Oil and gas continue to provide 35% of GDP and 75% of exports, despite talk of an energy transition. “We expected a tailing off in demand on a global level, and this has not happened,” said Richard Howe, Executive Vice President of Shell’s Exploration and Production division during a panel of energy executives. Beside him, Askhat Khassenov, Chairman of the Board at KazMunayGas, was a little more smug – “It looks like oil and gas are going to be around for a lot longer than some had anticipated,” he said. Nevertheless, regular attendees at Kazakhstan’s annual energy shindig noted that the event was notably quieter than in previous years. Russians were absent, and Europeans few and far between. Delegations from neighboring Central Asian and Middle Eastern states padded out the numbers, perhaps reflecting countries in a similar situation. The audience skewed heavily male and middle-aged. While a side event titled “Women in Oil” took place in a nearby hall, the real worry was generational. Both Howe of Shell and Bakhodirjon Sidikov of Uzbekneftegas admitted that talent – or the lack of it – was their biggest challenge. Concerns about the lack of top scientists have also been taken up at the highest level. “Today, 90% of university graduates have bachelor's degrees. Meanwhile, the proportion of PhD holders is less than 1%,” President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said earlier this week. “Therefore, it is necessary to increase the number of grants for doctoral studies, with preference given to technical specialties.” If the message of Energy Week was that Kazakhstan’s present still runs on oil and gas, it was also clear the sector is worried about who will run it tomorrow. [caption id="attachment_37005" align="aligncenter" width="355"] Image: Joe Luc Barnes, TCA[/caption] New Kazakhstan For the future talent, you only had to drive...

9 months ago

Kazakhstan Football

Almaty Gears Up to Host Real Madrid’s Galácticos

Football fans across Kazakhstan are preparing for arguably the biggest sporting occasion in the country’s history on Tuesday. Kairat Almaty play their first ever home Champions League game against the mighty Real Madrid at the Almaty Central Stadium. The arrival of Madrid’s Galácticos has electrified the city, with fans camping outside the Intercontinental Hotel in Almaty just to catch a glimpse of the visiting superstars. Kairat lost their first match 4-1 to Sporting Lisbon, a scoreline that the management felt didn’t do justice to a spirited performance. “The team lost focus for about five minutes, conceding three goals, but never gave up and scored a goal in the Champions League – the first in our club’s history. That experience is valuable,” Kairat Boranbaev, the club’s president, told The Times of Central Asia at the club’s training complex this week. “We understand that the Champions League has the 36 best teams in Europe, so the level is extremely high. We don’t stress about the result; the team gains huge experience.” Boranbaev said, proudly adding that six Kairat academy products played in the match. [caption id="attachment_36737" align="aligncenter" width="1600"] Kairat Almaty President, Kairat Boranbaev; image: TCA, Joe Luc Barnes[/caption] A Ten-Year Journey The fifty-nine-year-old president and business magnate is not surprised his club has reached the higher echelons of European football. “This strategic work was built more than ten years ago, and we have been moving toward it all these years. I think it’s a natural result, a systematic effort by our club.” Boranbaev says that when he took over the club’s presidency in 2012, the facilities were well below par. Kairat is traditionally Kazakhstan’s most storied club, their famed black-and-yellow jerseys representing all-Kazakhstan in the Soviet Top League in the communist years. But they had fallen on hard times in the independence era, even splitting into two rival clubs for a time. “When we arrived, there was only one burned-down base from Soviet times,” Boranbaev told TCA. “We started developing, learning what football really is. Today, all the infrastructure is established, youth player development is in place, and the coaching staff training is organized. That’s why the results we’ve achieved today are the outcome of years of stable, professional management.” [caption id="attachment_36738" align="aligncenter" width="1600"] Kairat Almaty's third qualifying round tie against Slovan Bratislava; image: TCA, Joe Luc Barnes[/caption] Nurturing Youth Kairat differs from other Kazakh teams in the emphasis they place on their academy. While clubs such as FK Astana and Aktobe often import talent rather than investing in grassroots football, Kairat aims to develop its own. The club’s most famous academy product is seventeen-year-old Dastan Satpaev, who will move to London side Chelsea upon turning eighteen. But during TCA’s tour of the stadium complex, we bump into the club’s newest teenage star, Sherhan Kalmurza, the eighteen-year-old goalkeeper who has been catapulted into the first XI due to injuries to other senior players. “He’s become famous,” booms Boranbaev. “He now has 40,000 Instagram followers after just two games!” Kairat’s president notes that...

9 months ago

Infrastructure Development

Manas Rising: Jalal-Abad Renaming Crowns Central Position in Kyrgyz Development Plans

On September 18, the President of Kyrgyzstan, Sadyr Japarov, signed into law the renaming of the country’s third-largest city, Jalal-Abad. From September 28, it will be known as Manas. This decision marks an escalation in the attention lavished on the city over the past half-decade, with a surge of infrastructure and construction projects. Indeed, rumors abound that the renaming may be just the beginning, perhaps laying the groundwork to shift the capital south. Rapid Development Jalal-Abad lies nestled in the Fergana Valley in Kyrgyzstan’s south, not far from the Uzbek border. Locals describe it as a politically active city and region, one that has nurtured many ambitious southern politicians. These include former President Kurmanbek Bakiev, perennial oppositionist Omurbek Tekebayev, now ambassador to Germany, and Kamchybek Tashiyev, the powerful head of the security services, widely known by their Russian acronym, the GKNB. It is the influence of Tashiyev that has led many to suspect Jalal-Abad has been the focus of special attention. Tashiyev hails from the village of Barpy, nearby in the Jalal-Abad region. In much the same way that Tajikistan’s president Emomali Rahmon has beautified his home village of Danghara, making it a provincial capital, and Uzbekistan’s Shavkat Mirziyoyev has steered investment such as the new BYD factory to his home region of Jizzakh, so too do Kyrgyz leaders seek to channel resources to their native provinces. “One thing you notice immediately is the amount of construction here,” a local resident, Saeed, told The Times of Central Asia. “You can see as you travel around the city, so much land is being prepared for new buildings.” In 2023, the city was singled out by President Sadyr Japarov as Kyrgyzstan’s future “second economic hub”. Two billion som ($22.9 million) were allocated to improve its infrastructure. One of the first steps was demolishing a large prison in the city center to make way for redevelopment. Other projects underway include a new regional airport, being built by China State Construction Engineering Corporation, around 20 kilometers from the city center. There has been an emphasis on public services, including a recently opened children’s hospital and a planned seven-storey, 280-bed medical facility. But Saeed is more excited about cultural projects. “We’ve also got a new Barcelona football academy here,” he said. “Even Bishkek doesn't have a Barcelona academy!” The city is also set to be one of the main hubs of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, which will bring goods directly from China’s Xinjiang Province without passing through Kazakhstan. Another local commentator, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that the Chinese presence in the city has also grown markedly in recent years. “It’s not only construction workers. Before, we didn't have so many Chinese restaurants. Now, Jalal-Abad has genuinely popular Chinese restaurants. In the past, the Kyrgyz generally despised Chinese cuisine; it was too foreign. But nowadays, you see government workers and other businessmen visiting these restaurants alongside the Chinese and trying their food.” The grandest project of all has been the new city administration building....

10 months ago

Afghanistan

Rail, Water, and Helicopters – Uzbekistan’s “Limited Recognition” of the Taliban

Uzbekistan has spent the middle of September embroiled in an increasingly tetchy press battle over an unusual topic: helicopters. The Taliban, who run the de facto government in Kabul, have long claimed that several dozen military aircraft and helicopters currently residing in Uzbekistan are rightfully theirs. On September 11, a Taliban official announced publicly that Uzbekistan had agreed to hand them back. This was reported widely in the regional media, with the Uzbek foreign ministry slow off the mark in denying these claims. The dispute goes back to the fall of Kabul in August 2021, when a total of 57 aircraft were flown from Afghanistan to Uzbekistan and Tajikistan as Ashraf Ghani’s government collapsed. “The helicopters came from the Afghan territory to Uzbek territory illegally, so actually we had the right to confiscate them,” Islomkhon Gafarov, an Afghanistan expert at the Center for Progressive Reform, a Tashkent think tank, told the Times of Central Asia. However, Gafarov adds that the aircraft were the property of the U.S. military loaned to the previous government of Afghanistan, and therefore, Washington will have a say in their return. This has not stopped the Taliban from continuing to demand the helicopters back for use in “humanitarian operations,” in the words of Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi. Such wrangling is part of the daily diplomatic in-tray for Tashkent when dealing with a neighbor whose government has not been recognized by almost the entire world. “Afghanistan is our neighbor,” said Gafarov. “According to the geopolitical situation, we have to conduct a dialogue with this government. It’s true, Uzbekistan hasn’t recognized the Taliban government, but de facto, we work with them; we’ve had diplomatic relations with them since 2018.” Tashkent certainly has reasons to work with the Taliban. Helicopters are a mere sideshow compared to two far larger issues that will define their relations for years to come: rail and water. Railway On the positive side of the ledger, the Taliban have brought to Afghanistan a reasonable degree of stability - enough to start contemplating large-scale infrastructure projects. In July, an agreement was struck between Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Uzbekistan to conduct a feasibility study for a trans-Afghanistan railway, with 647 kilometers of new track being laid to link Uzbekistan with Pakistan’s Indian Ocean ports. This railway could bring significant benefits to Uzbekistan, one of only two double-landlocked countries in the world. Currently, sea-bound exports must travel via Turkmenistan to Iran. Other routes almost all rely on going via Kazakhstan. The China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, currently being constructed, should remove some of the need for sea-bound routes, but the Pakistan route would be faster. “The trans-Afghan route is the shortest way to the seaports of Karachi and Gwadar,” Gafarov told TCA. With a line from Termez, Uzbekistan, to Mazar-i-Sharif in Northern Afghanistan already operational, this only leaves two sections unbuilt - from Mazar to Kabul, and then from Kabul to Peshawar in Pakistan. The teams are still only at the feasibility stage right now, and have, with some chutzpah, predicted...

10 months ago

EAEU

Has Kyrgyzstan Benefited From Its Membership of the EAEU?

On the sunlit shores of Lake Issyk-Kul this August, Kyrgyzstan played host to leaders from across the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). On August 14-15, officials from Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia descended on the resort town of Cholpon-Ata for a meeting of the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council, accompanied by ceremonies to mark a decade since Kyrgyzstan joined the Moscow-led economic bloc. The Kyrgyz government issued a commemorative stamp to celebrate the anniversary, while the guest of honor, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, arrived with pledges of deeper integration. Rosatom, Moscow’s nuclear agency, signed agreements to build Kyrgyzstan’s first wind farm near Issyk-Kul, while the union’s five governments also agreed to recognize each other’s digital documents, and talks continued on a long-awaited gas union. Mishustin also caused a stir on social media by addressing the Kyrgyz honor guard in their own language. The words “Salam Asker” (hello, soldiers) were enough to draw appreciation from a Kyrgyz society unused to hearing Russian politicians use any language but Russian in its former colonies. The flattery was all part of the choreography: in return, Kyrgyz government officials and state media fell in line to proclaim the benefits of EAEU membership. But have these benefits been worth it? Or has the EAEU merely tethered Bishkek to a partner whose grip is more suffocating than supportive? [caption id="attachment_35121" align="aligncenter" width="1600"] The Conference Hall at Cholpon-Ata, where the council meeting took place; image: Joe Luc Barnes[/caption] The Case for the Union Kyrgyz officials are keen to emphasize the upsides. In an interview with state mouthpiece Slovo.kg, former economic minister Arzybek Kozhoshev said that joining the bloc had eased conditions for Kyrgyz migrant laborers in Russia and Kazakhstan. “With the accession of the Kyrgyz Republic to the EAEU, the conditions of stay and work of citizens of the Kyrgyz Republic in other EAEU countries have changed significantly,” Kozhoshev said, highlighting simplified entry, no requirement to take a Russian language exam, equal access to health insurance, and even the right to draw pensions on par with local workers. For a country where remittances have accounted for around 25% GDP over the past decade, these measures are not insignificant. Kyrgyz drivers, once barred from operating commercial vehicles in Russia, now enjoy full rights. Digital labor platforms like Work Without Borders make it easier to find jobs, and migrant workers in Russia pay the same flat 13% tax as local workers. In short, for the hundreds of thousands of Kyrgyz toiling in Moscow, Novosibirsk, and Almaty, the EAEU has meant fewer hurdles and more predictability. It’s worth bearing in mind that other potential labor destinations, such as Korea, the United States, or the European Union, are not handing out hundreds of thousands of visas to Kyrgyz citizens every year. Kremlin officials have also stressed that Kyrgyzstan pays lower tariffs on Russian gas – only $150 per 1,000 cubic meters, due to its EAEU membership. That said, given Russia’s current oversupply of gas with the closure of the European market, this is not...

11 months ago

Middle Corridor

How Could the Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Accord Benefit Central Asia?

On August 8, Armenia and Azerbaijan signed a peace accord in Washington and committed to the construction of the Trump Route for Peace and Prosperity, a trade route that bisects Armenia, connecting the two parts of Azerbaijan. The deal may have far-reaching repercussions on the other side of the Caspian, potentially diversifying the Trans-Caspian Middle Corridor by allowing travel from Azerbaijan, through Armenia, and onwards to Turkey. The upbeat mood music may be premature, however. There remain numerous political hurdles to be jumped before any construction can commence, and the entry of the United States into a region where Russia, Iran, and Turkey all have interests could have unintended consequences. “It’s certainly an opportunity, but there are risks,” said Azerbaijani political analyst and non-resident fellow at the China-Global South Project, Yunis Sharifli. “The United States can be a stabilizing force, but it could go in the opposite direction. It can also create a spoiler.” The Problem Armenia and Azerbaijan have maintained ice-cold relations for almost their entire existence as independent states. For over three decades, they tussled over the status of Nagorno-Karabakh, a land which lies in the internationally recognized territory of Azerbaijan, but was, upon independence, populated mainly by Armenians. As well as costing thousands of lives and leading to hundreds of thousands of displaced persons, the enmity has also led to shuttered frontiers, which have choked trade across the South Caucasus. Armenia’s borders with both Azerbaijan and Turkey have been closed since 1993. While Armenia has been cut off from two of its four neighbors, Azerbaijan has also been severed in two, with the exclave of Nakhchivan, which borders Turkey, separated from the rest of the country by a sliver of Armenian territory, just 20 miles wide at its narrowest point. Conflicts in 2016, 2020, and 2023 saw Azerbaijan push Armenian troops from the region, with hundreds of thousands of Armenians fleeing Nagorno-Karabakh in fear of Azerbaijani reprisals. Since then, Baku has used its vast military superiority and geopolitical advantage to try to strongarm Armenia into accepting the construction of a corridor across its territory, threatening to use force on numerous occasions if Yerevan did not agree to its demands. The Solution Starting early this year, the United States began facilitating secretive negotiations between the pair, stepping into the vacuum left by Russia. The Kremlin has been sidelined from the process amid its deteriorating relations with both sides – many Armenians view Moscow as having betrayed them in the conflicts of 2020 and 2023, while Azeri-Russian relations have frayed significantly since the shooting down of Azerbaijan Airways Flight 8243 to Grozny earlier this year. The timing of the signing ceremony, on the anniversary of the Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008, was perhaps designed to reflect this shift in geopolitical alignment in the South Caucasus. Baku and Yerevan have signed up to a project which will see the construction of the corridor run by a U.S. private company, but under the laws of the Republic of Armenia. The...

11 months ago

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