Our People > Joe Luc Barnes

Joe Luc Barnes

Regional Editor and Journalist

Joe Luc Barnes is a British journalist and author who focuses on the countries of the former Soviet Union. He has a Master’s degree in Russian and East European Politics from the University of Oxford. His book, “Farewell to Russia: A Journey Through The Former USSR”, will be published by Elliott and Thompson in Spring 2026.

Articles

Banking

Halyk Bank Buys 49% Stake in Uzbekistan’s Click in Landmark Fintech Deal

Almaty - Kazakhstan’s Halyk Bank has announced it will acquire a 49% stake in Uzbek digital payments company Click for $176.4 million, marking one of the largest cross-border banking investments in Central Asia to date. The deal values Click at approximately $360 million, highlighting the growing importance of digital finance in the region’s rapidly evolving financial landscape. With over 20 million customers, Click is one of Uzbekistan’s most widely used payment providers. As part of the agreement, Click will also take a 49% stake in Tenge Bank, Halyk’s Uzbek subsidiary, for $60.76 million. The reciprocal structure of the deal is designed to foster tighter operational integration and shared technological infrastructure between the two institutions – a significant step toward regional financial harmonization. “This is a historic moment for Click. Partnering with Halyk Bank and expanding our capabilities through Tenge Bank represents a major step forward in delivering world-class digital financial services to millions of users,” said Ulugbek Rustamov, CEO of Click. “At the same time, the structure of the deal ensures Click retains its independence, continues to shape its strategic vision, and remains a proud national brand.” Strategic Push Toward Integration The announcement comes as both Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan continue efforts to modernize their financial systems and ease cross-border payments. Regional trade between the two nations has grown steadily in recent years, with bilateral trade turnover reaching $4.22 billion in 2024, up from $2.9 billion in 2020. Halyk Bank, already Kazakhstan’s dominant financial institution with a 29% market share and more than 10.9 million active retail clients, views the investment as a strategic step towards capturing Uzbekistan’s booming digital economy. Click, meanwhile, gains regulatory grounding via Tenge Bank and access to Halyk’s technology and ability to raise capital from its public listing on the London Stock Exchange. Uzbekistan, whose GDP grew by 7.2% in the first half of 2025, continues to open its financial sector to foreign capital – a key pillar of President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s economic reform program. Competing Power Structures? This fintech alliance also throws an intriguing light on Central Asia’s most influential business families. Halyk Bank is majority-owned by Timur Kulibayev and his wife Dinara, the daughter of former Kazakh president Nursultan Nazarbayev, widely viewed as Kazakhstan’s most powerful couple. Their expanding presence in Uzbekistan via Click and Tenge Bank may once have had the potential to ruffle feathers amongst Uzbekistan’s elite. The fact that the deal has been allowed to proceed this far is in itself an acknowledgement of the shared interests of regional powerbrokers. A Shift in Regional Strategy The deal represents a strategic reversal for Halyk Bank. In recent years, the bank has divested from its Kyrgyz and Tajik operations, selling 100% of its Kyrgyz subsidiary to oligarch Aidan Karibzhanov in 2024 and liquidating its Tajik entity in 2022. The Click acquisition signals a renewed focus on Uzbekistan, with the potential to make the country Halyk’s primary external growth market. This renewed push comes as Halyk cements its dominance in Kazakhstan, where it controls...

12 months ago

State Visit

Steppe Diplomacy: Mongolia Deepens Central Asia Ties

Late on July 20th, the President of Mongolia, Ukhnaagiin Khürelsükh, touched down in Bishkek as part of a two-day state visit to Kyrgyzstan. It forms part of Khürelsükh’s wider Central Asian tour, with the President set to fly to Dushanbe following his sojourn in the Kyrgyz capital. The trip builds on Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov’s 2023 visit to Ulaanbaatar, where he oversaw the opening of Kyrgyzstan’s first embassy in Mongolia and toured the Genghis Khan Museum in the capital. A warm greeting Khürelsükh was welcomed by Japarov on the red carpet at Manas International Airport, where traditional dances, music, and even a ceremonial eagle were laid on. The pair greeted each other like old friends before the motorcade swept along the empty roads towards the city. Like Japarov, Khürelsükh has been president since 2021, although, unlike his Kyrgyz counterpart, his role is largely ceremonial. Indeed, current Mongolian politics offers a hint of nostalgia to those in Kyrgyzstan with fond memories of the pre-Japarov era. In June, the Mongolian Prime Minister was forced to resign after losing a vote of confidence in the country’s parliament. This followed months of protests after press reports covering his son’s extravagant spending. The second day of the visit afforded Japarov the chance to play to statesman-like host and welcome a new visitor to the Presidential Palace – the Yntymak Ordo – which is still less than a year old. With temperatures hitting 37°C (98° Fahrenheit) in the Kyrgyz capital, the Mongolian leader arrived at the palace in a blacked-out Mercedes, flanked by a horse-mounted honor guard. The besuited leaders then stood in the baking sunshine to receive a military salute from Kyrgyzstan’s army. A burgeoning friendship Perhaps the scale of the pomp masks the limits of what can be achieved bilaterally. Iskander Sharsheyev, an independent Kyrgyz economist, was keen to stress to The Times of Central Asia that the leaders did achieve some breakthroughs in terms of agriculture: “Veterinary certificates were signed... This provides a new market for Kyrgyz producers. Kyrgyzstan and Mongolia signed a memorandum of cooperation in the field of wool processing, including cashmere. Mongolia is one of the world leaders in cashmere production, and the transfer of technology and training of specialists can dramatically improve the Kyrgyz textile sector.” However, real announcements were thin on the ground and the language of diplomacy was heavy with blandishments: “We strive to develop mutually beneficial cooperation in all areas, especially in the trade and economic sphere,” said Khürelsükh, while Japarov noted that “comprehensive cooperation with Mongolia is one of the priority areas of the development of Kyrgyzstan's foreign policy.” The question is whether there is any substance behind this. Economically, the numbers are hardly going to move the dial. In the first five months of this year, Kyrgyzstan exported $3.1 million worth of goods to Mongolia, much of it confectioneries. Mongolian exports in the other direction are even lower. While officials are trumpeting the rate of growth, which tripled in 2024, it’s worth having a...

12 months ago

Middle Corridor

How Can Britain Benefit From the Middle Corridor?

On July 2nd, a roundtable held at the House of Lords, the upper chamber of the British parliament, brought together diplomats, trade envoys, logistics professionals, and academics to promote the Middle Corridor – the overland route connecting China to Europe via Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey. The session aimed to highlight the strategic and economic case for British involvement in the corridor. However, in a crowded political landscape, the pitch struggled to gain airtime. On the same day, British economic minister Rachel Reeves shed tears in parliament’s lower chamber, sparking fears of political instability, and, a few miles away, the Wimbledon tennis season had just begun. In short, Westminster and the British media were elsewhere. Nonetheless, speakers made their case for the corridor’s importance to China-Europe freight. The Middle Corridor has gained attention as an alternative to the Northern Corridor – a rail network that runs from China through Kazakhstan, Russia, and Belarus, all members of the Eurasian Economic Union (a shared customs zone). The Northern route could, in theory, deliver goods from China to Europe in as little as ten days. But its viability has been damaged by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions regime that followed. Since then, cargo traffic along the Middle Corridor has surged. “Before the war in Ukraine, 99% of goods travelled along the northern corridor, and just 1% along the Middle Corridor,” said Dr Chris Brooks, Global Director of Risk, Quality and Compliance at Bertling Logistics. “Now it’s about 90% along the Middle Corridor.” In raw numbers, the increase has been stark. Back in 2021, cargo volume transported through the Middle Corridor was around 800,000 tonnes; that stood at 4.5 million tonnes at the end of 2024. “It is never going to be an alternative to the maritime route,” Brooks said, estimating that even with major investment, capacity would top out at around 16,000 tonnes per month, which is dwarfed by maritime trade between China and Europe, which totals around 800,000 tonnes a month. However, he did call the route a “strategic insurance policy,” citing its neutrality, flexibility, and compliance with Western sanctions. For automotive, electric, and fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) with short shelf lives, the route will prove particularly useful. “Whether you're going through the Red Sea or around the Cape of Good Hope, maritime typically takes anything between 35 and 52 days. The Northern Russian corridor is 10 to 20 days. The Middle Corridor can actually do similar.” But Brooks added that infrastructure and the weather remain limiting factors, meaning that lead times are anything between 14 and 45 days, with some shipments taking up to two months. “We have as many as 400 trucks queuing up… not because of customs – they’re just queuing to get onto the ferry from Baku to Kazakhstan… Drivers are waiting anything from one week to one month,” he said, adding his concerns that the corridor also has limited capacity to move large cargo. [caption id="attachment_33653" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Image: middlecorridor.com[/caption] Many speakers...

1 year ago

Digital Development

The Battle for Control Over Central Asia’s Digital Future

Central Asia is digitalizing quickly. Governments across the region have invested in smart cities, 5G, and AI-powered platforms. Kazakhstan ranks 24th in the world in global e-government indexes, and in Tashkent and Bishkek, young, tech-savvy populations are pushing for innovation. But such progress is not without risks. A new report from the German Marshall Fund (GMF), a Washington-based think tank, outlines how Central Asia is becoming ever more reliant on Chinese and Russian technology. These two countries, the report argues, are using digital tools not just to supply infrastructure but to shape how governments in the region manage data, surveillance, and speech. Beijing and Moscow’s tech exports act as snares, tying customers into their own economies. “Central Asian governments are aware of these challenges,” Dylan Welch, the author of the report and a China analyst at the GMF, told The Times of Central Asia. But he notes that it can be difficult to convince policymakers to prioritize the dangers of such overexposure. “For the national leaders, their imperative is to deliver economic growth because they have these young, dynamic populations that need jobs… if they don't deliver on that, then they're in for a long period of instability at home,” he said. This makes Chinese and Russian offers to develop their digital industries extremely tempting. An Entrenched Presence The report coincides with a flurry of Russian and Chinese engagement in the region. Over the weekend, Kazakhstan announced that between them, Beijing and Moscow will be responsible for delivering a new generation of nuclear reactors to the country, currently leaving French and Korean alternatives out in the cold. Then came this week’s visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to Astana for a summit with the five Central Asian leaders. On the digital front, one notable announcement from this summit included a plan to develop an Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Center in Kyrgyzstan. China has used the term “Digital Silk Road” to describe its investments in Central Asia, and it has built much of the physical infrastructure behind the region’s digitization drive. For its part, Russia has exported its software, legal models and surveillance practices. Taken together, these systems are helping local governments tighten control over digital life. “This strategic integration makes it more difficult for regional states to diversify in the future, even though many continue to pursue multi-vector foreign policies aimed at balancing global partnerships,” Yunis Sharifli, Non-Resident Fellow at the China-Global South Project, told TCA. Where the Vulnerabilities Lie The report uses a “technology stack” framework to explain the problem. This framework looks at five layers: network infrastructure, data storage, consumer devices, digital platforms, and government policies. Across these layers, it argues, Central Asia is exposed to Chinese and Russian influence. Take Kazakhstan. It may be the most advanced digital economy in the region, but most of its internet traffic still passes through Russia. Telecom firms across the region are also required to install a Russian-made surveillance technology known as SORM (System for Operative Investigative Activities), which can intercept internet...

1 year ago

soccer

Uzbekistan Qualify for the FIFA World Cup

On June 5, history was made in Uzbekistan as the national football team qualified for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. A nervy 0-0 draw against the United Arab Emirates in Abu Dhabi was enough to secure them a place at next year’s tournament in North America. It marks the first time that the 34-year-old nation will appear in the final stages of the competition. They become only the third nation from the former USSR, after Russia and Ukraine, and the first from Central Asia, to do so. A Night of Nerves The final hurdle was not an easy one. The Uzbeks faced an intimidating atmosphere even before kick-off, with long airport screening processes meaning over 100 fans were detained for between 7-9 hours at Sharjah airport. Then there was the weather, even at 8pm, the Al Nahyan Stadium in Abu Dhabi sweltered in 31-degree heat. Nevertheless, the team was helped by an Uzbek away support that did not cease all match. The away section was full well before kick-off, and the chants of “Oz-Bek-Is-Ton!”, accompanied by the pounding of drums, could be heard around the stadium. The Uzbeks, with just one loss in their nine-match qualifying campaign, have built their play around a solid defense. In six out of their nine qualifying matches, they did not concede a goal. The team’s star player, Manchester City’s Abdukodir Khusanov, has been the lynchpin of that formidable rearguard, but this is not a side of individuals. The whole team worked tenaciously for each other, and even when their protection was breached, the impressive Uktir Yusupov was on hand to make a few smart saves. Towards the end, the Uzbek fans and coaching staff were screaming at the referee to blow the final whistle after he added ten minutes of additional time. But when time was finally up, well-earned and long-awaited joy was plain to see on every face. Several players broke out sobbing. Celebrations The elation was shared not only by the players. The Uzbek media present in the stadium were seen jumping around the press box in delirium. Back home in Uzbekistan, where half the country had stayed up to watch the match, there was similar joy. “The feeling is indescribable. We’ve been waiting for this day for thirty-four years!” said Diyor Mirpolatov, a 19-year-old student from Tashkent told The Times of Central Asia. Xojiakbar Xamdamov, a graphic designer from Andijan, also could not hide his relief at finally making the tournament. “The failure had even become part of Uzbek pop culture,” he said. “It gets mentioned by standup comedians, in movies, on talk shows… now I think everything will change.” Mirpolotov says that he plans to go to the United States for the tournament: “I’m also going to apply as a volunteer for the World Cup, so I can get more access to matches.” His dream is to see his country play against Portugal. “It would be amazing for Cristiano Ronaldo to play against Uzbekistan,” he said. Xamadov is more circumspect. “Uzbekistan is one of those countries from...

1 year ago

Syr Darya River

Strained Currents: Managing the Syr Darya’s Waters

On both banks of the Syr Darya, apartments are springing up. The embankment itself is undergoing extensive renovation. Trucks crawl along, their weight pounding the freshly lain asphalt into shape. Its acrid whiff rankles in the nose for some distance. Kyzylorda’s new Akim, Nurzhan Akhatov, appointed in August 2024, is determined to make the most of his short term in office, explains Kanat Utegenov, founder of LLP ECO GUARD, an ecological laboratory. This makes the new landscaping important. “There is a lot of construction… it is visually noticeable to the population,” he told The Times of Central Asia. “Unfortunately, the economics of it have not necessarily been calculated.” Utegenov cites a new stadium on the left bank of the river as an example of one of these potential white elephant projects. Worse still, all this landscaping is dependent on one critical factor which is only partly under the control of the Akim, and only partly under the control of Kazakhstan. That issue is water. [caption id="attachment_32630" align="aligncenter" width="1600"] The low-running Syr Darya passing through Kyzylorda, Kazakhstan; image: TCA, Joe Luc Barnes[/caption] In late April, the view that a ritzy new apartment buys you is one of sad, sandy banks. Wading birds plod methodically through the mud, looking for worms. The dirty grey river does not so much flow but keeps up a ponderous momentum, inching its way northwest. Some of this water will reach the North Aral Sea, which is being propped up on life support by the Kokaral Dam. Utegenov attributes the low water level as being partly due to climatic change. “Winter has become milder and almost snowless,” he said, adding that it’s not unusual to see a low river in spring. “This is when the rice is planted; all the water goes to the irrigation canals.” Governments across the region are doubling down on rice production, says Bulat Yessekin, an expert on environmental and water policy in Central Asia. However, he points out that growing rice is incredibly inefficient in this part of the world. “If we take into account the full irrigation cycle, five tons (5,000 liters) of water are used to cultivate just one kilo of rice,” he told TCA. However, Kazakhstan’s government is keen to trumpet successes. The use of laser leveling technology in rice fields has helped save over 200 billion liters of water by distributing it more evenly. According to Kazakh state media, this has meant that the yield from each hectare of rice crop has increased by around 60-70%. This has done little to convince Yessekin, who believes this is little more than a sticking plaster. “There was no such need for technology before as there was enough water. Now, such technology has become necessary because otherwise, they will simply not be able to grow the crop. In countries with much greater precipitation, such as Thailand or India, you can grow it, but here there are no prospects for rice. Sooner or later people need to move to other crops.” Yessekin...

1 year ago

Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov

L’Étranger: Paris Hosts the Reclusive Leader of Turkmenistan

Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, Turkmenistan’s longtime ruler, no longer holds the title of president; that has been passed, along with much of the public burden, to his son. He now reigns from the shadows as Hero-Arkadag (“Hero-Protector”), but he retains the ability to open doors. Nearly 14 years after his last official visit, Berdimuhamedov landed at Paris’ Orly airport last Monday. He was in France ostensibly to attend the Franco-Turkmen Economic Forum, but the visit also saw him ushered into the Élysée Palace for an audience with President Emmanuel Macron. Characteristically, his presence in Paris was kept quiet, receiving very little coverage even in the French media. “It was much less discussed than the near-concurrent visit of the Syrian leader, Ahmed Al-Charaa,” Michaël Levystone, co-founder of l'Observatoire de la Nouvelle Eurasie, a Paris think tank told The Times of Central Asia. “You have to understand that Turkmenistan is a country that is virtually unknown to the general public in France – and for good reason: it goes out of its way to remain extremely discreet!” Nevertheless, the visit marks a rare moment of high-level Western diplomacy with one of the world’s most opaque regimes, as well as an extremely uncommon public diplomatic appearance from Berdimuhamedov Senior since ceding formal power in 2022. The questions are why France? And why now? What Was Discussed The two readouts of the encounter were notably different. The Élysée offered a terse summary on its website, noting vaguely that the meeting “provided an opportunity to review the bilateral relationship between Turkmenistan and France as well as regional issues.” Macron then followed this up with an equally laconic post on X, noting that the two had “signed several agreements between Turkmenistan and France in the areas of energy transition, infrastructure, education, and culture. They demonstrate the strengthening of our cooperation. We also took stock of major regional and international crises, including Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine and the situation in the Middle East.” On the other hand, the state-run news service Turkmenistan Today provided what can only be described as a detailed travelogue, noting the many dignitaries who had the pleasure of meeting the Hero-Arkadag on his whistle-stop tour of the City of Lights. According to the Turkmens, the visit yielded a flurry of agreements. A memorandum of understanding was inked between state-owned Türkmengaz and French tech firm Kayrros SAS, while France’s Thales Alenia Space Group signed a framework deal to provide Ashgabat with a second communications satellite. There were further promises of joint work on green energy, education, and archaeological research. A Foot in the Door One French company in particular is responsible for much of the engagement between the two countries. As part of his trip to Paris, Berdimuhamedov met with construction magnate Martin Bouygues, CEO of the firm that bears his family’s name. [caption id="attachment_31644" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] The Presidential Palace and ministries complex, built by the French company Bouygues; image: TCA, Stephen M. Bland[/caption] “Bouygues has built numerous monumental buildings in Ashgabat since Turkmenistan's independence,” Levystone told...

1 year ago

Earthquake

Seismic Cities: Is Central Asia Prepared for a Major Earthquake?

The recent 7.7-magnitude earthquake in Myanmar, which claimed over 3,500 lives and caused structural failures more than 1,000 kilometers away in Bangkok, has once again highlighted the precariousness of life in seismically active regions. “Earthquakes happen on geological faults, which are often sited at the edges of mountain ranges.” Richard Walker, Professor of Tectonics at the University of Oxford told The Times of Central Asia. “Sadly, the edges of mountain ranges are often the best places to live, due to the presence of water and of land for farming.” All Central Asian capitals, except for Kazakhstan’s relocated capital Astana, are located on such terrain. This has historically made them vulnerable. The 1948 earthquake in Ashgabat destroyed almost the entire city; Tashkent suffered a similarly destructive event in 1966, and Almaty was wracked by twin blows in 1887 and 1911. Although no such catastrophic event has occurred in the last half century, the earth beneath the region continues to rumble restlessly. Two quakes in early 2024 left the residents of Almaty unnerved. Last week, on April 14, a 5.9 magnitude earthquake in Tajikistan caused the death of a young boy and damage to around thirty homes near the Chinese border. Though moderate, these tremors serve to remind residents of the active tectonics of the region and raise questions about the structural readiness of buildings and infrastructure should a stronger event occur. Botched Building After the 2023 earthquake on the Turkey-Syria border, which killed over 53,000 people in Turkey alone, authorities launched investigations into over a hundred individuals linked to the construction of buildings that did not withstand the tremors. Such stories were familiar to people who grew up in the Soviet Union. In the 1988 Spitak earthquake in Armenia, tens of thousands died in Leninakan (now Gyumri). Many of the casualties were put down to the collapse of identikit 9-storey tower blocks built in the Brezhnev era. These were designed to withstand a magnitude 7 earthquake; in the event, the 6.8 magnitude quake that struck Leninakan caused 72 out of 78 of these buildings to collapse. In a bitter irony, many older, pre-Soviet structures remained intact. One team of international inspectors blamed “very low construction standards and suspect joint details” in Leninakan for the scale of the disaster. Similar precast tower blocks to those that collapsed in Armenia can be seen across the former USSR. According to the Uzbek media, the Cabinet of Ministers estimated in 2023 that approximately 70% of private housing in the country failed to meet current earthquake resistance standards. “The 2023 earthquake in Turkey was a tragic reminder of the importance of strict compliance with building codes and continuous quality control of construction in seismic regions,” Daulet Sarsenbayev, director of the Kazakhstan’s National Scientific Center for Seismological Observations and Research, told TCA. “Such events provide valuable lessons for all countries, including Kazakhstan, in terms of the need to strengthen the regulatory framework, increase transparency in the construction industry, and invest in resilient infrastructure.” In response to the...

1 year ago

Oil and Gas

Gas Crunch in Uzbekistan: Industry Falters as Demand Surges

In the first two months of 2025, Uzbekistan's natural gas production declined by 4.2% compared to the same period in 2024, continuing a troubling trend that has seen output fall from 61.59 billion cubic meters in 2018 to 44.59 billion cubic meters in 2024. This persistent decrease raises concerns about the nation’s energy security and economic stability. Once among Central Asia’s energy success stories, Uzbekistan became a net importer of natural gas in 2023, a symbolic turning point for a country whose identity was long intertwined with hydrocarbon abundance. The extent of the strain was demonstrated in December 2024, when gas stations around the country were forced to close during a cold snap as heating systems across the country kicked into action. This led drivers of methane-powered cars, which are common in the country given that it costs about $15 to fill the tank as opposed to $40-50 in a gasoline-powered vehicle, into a desperate hunt for places to fill up. Kilometer-long queues formed, and drivers ferociously competed to be first to the pump. Such scenes have become a familiar sight in the Uzbek winter as gas production has fallen. “Uzbekistan’s gas production is already quite mature,” Anne-Sophie Corbeau of Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy told The Times of Central Asia. “The existing fields are entering a phase of decline. The reserve-to-production ratio was around 18 years based on 2020 data, and the situation is unlikely to be much better now.” Put simply, the country is running out of easy gas. Despite repeated efforts to locate new reserves, particularly in the under-explored Ustyurt region, exploration has so far failed to yield significant breakthroughs. Even if discoveries are made, the timeline to bring new fields online would mean little impact before 2030, at best. In parallel, demand for gas has remained stubbornly high. Corbeau noted that “the country’s energy mix and electricity generation are very dependent on natural gas. And Uzbekistan is one of the countries with the lowest wholesale gas prices in the world.” Those prices have long distorted both domestic consumption and investor interest, keeping demand high while choking off potential upstream capital. [caption id="attachment_30630" align="aligncenter" width="1209"] Image: Wholesale Gas Price Survey 2024 Edition. International Gas Union. https://www.datocms-assets.com/[/caption] This sentiment is echoed by Irina Mironova, Senior Energy Analyst at the New Energy Advancement Hub. “Domestic production is declining faster than consumption,” she said, “and domestic gas pricing is not market-based. It remains below the price of imported gas, which undermines the investment appeal of upstream projects for foreign investors.” The government has undertaken some measures to control demand over the past year, raising the tariffs for electricity and gas by 52.5% and 71% respectively, hitting consumers in the pocket in an attempt to alter the wasteful use of scant resources. On the supply side, the government has declared a bold ambition to raise production to 62 billion cubic meters annually under its Uzbekistan–2030 development strategy, but observers remain skeptical. “They’ve tried to facilitate exploration, especially in the...

1 year ago

Education

Is Beijing’s Educational Diplomacy Turning the Dial on Central Asian Public Opinion?

OSH, KYRGYZSTAN – On the eastern bank of the Ak-Buura River, a mini-Chinatown is developing. At Osh’s old bus station, buses and taxis hawk their services to Kashgar, 300 kilometers away over the Pamir Mountains in China’s Xinjiang Province. Blue-plated SUVs stand by the roadside, sporting the 新 character that also symbolizes their origin in Xinjiang. At the Kelechek Bazaar, hordes of money changers shout the best rates for Dollars, Uzbek Som, and Chinese Yuan. Tucked away from the mêlée behind the Peking Hotel is the five-story Confucius Institute. “The Chinese language is in huge demand right now,” said Ali, a student who has moved to Osh from nearby Uzbekistan to study here. He believes the move will be good for his career. “It’s the best opportunity for anyone in this region,” he told The Times of Central Asia, before enthusing about his plans to study in China next year. [caption id="attachment_30054" align="aligncenter" width="1600"] The Confucius Institute in Osh, Kyrgyzstan; image: Joe Luc Barnes[/caption] “There’s a strong possibility that the younger generation will have a more positive view towards China,” Yunis Sharifli, a non-resident fellow at the China Global South Project told TCA. “This is good for China-Central Asia relations because we know that in the past, anti-China sentiments have hindered cooperation.” Chinese diplomats often refer to win-win diplomacy, where engagement between states can lead to positive outcomes for both sides. This is viewed with understandable cynicism by those who see Beijing’s diplomacy as entirely self-interested, but when it comes to education, even if we avoid the term win-win, the opportunities that it offers young Central Asians are hard to deny. In return, China hopes to create a network of influence and goodwill from people like Ali. Nevertheless, the jury is out on whether it is working. [caption id="attachment_30053" align="aligncenter" width="1600"] China-plated cars are an increasingly common sight in Kyrgyzstan; image: Joe Luc Barnes[/caption] Swelling numbers Given that numerous questions have been asked about the accuracy of China’s own population data, monitoring the number of foreign students in the country can be a fiendish task. The consensus is that the numbers are increasing. Chinese state media outlet Xinhua claimed that student numbers grew from 11,930 to 29,885 between 2010 and 2018, and have recovered since the pandemic. One recent report put the number of Kazakh students alone at “approaching 20,000”. These numbers are unlikely to dethrone Russia as the top destination for Central Asian students any time soon. Moscow claimed in 2023 that 168,000 Central Asians were studying in the country, with around a third of them being funded by the Russian government. However, Sharifli believes that Russia’s luster is beginning to wane. “Moscow State University has historically been very attractive for Central Asian people, particularly in the social science or the technical fields,” said Sharifli. “But since the war [in Ukraine] began there has been a lot of discrimination against Central Asians in Russia.” This was demonstrated in a recent account given to The Times of Central Asia by...

1 year ago

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