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Afghanistan Advances TAPI Gas Pipeline Construction as Kazakhstan Explores Participation

Afghanistan has made significant progress in constructing the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline. According to Ariana News, citing the Herat provincial governor’s office, approximately six kilometers of pipeline have already been laid since work began last month. Herat Governor Maulana Islam Jar assured project representatives of his full support, stating that TAPI will play a crucial role in strengthening the economy and promoting regional stability. Afghanistan's section of the pipeline is expected to take approximately two years to complete and represents a significant milestone for the broader project. TAPI is designed to connect Central Asia’s vast gas reserves with the rapidly growing energy markets of South Asia. During a recent meeting, TAPI’s general director in Afghanistan, Abdullah Yoof, updated Governor Jar on construction progress and outlined further plans for the project, including job creation and infrastructure development in Herat province. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan is actively exploring the possibility of joining the TAPI pipeline. The country’s Ministry of Energy has confirmed ongoing negotiations between the national gas company, QazaqGaz, and Turkmengaz, which owns an 85% stake in TAPI Pipeline Company Limited. However, officials have refrained from disclosing details, citing the confidentiality of the discussions. Kazakhstan’s interest in the project was first officially announced by Deputy Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhanov. Speaking at the Kazakhstan-Afghanistan Business Forum in October 2024, he highlighted that participation in TAPI could provide Kazakhstan with access to new markets, including Pakistan and India while attracting additional investment to the country’s gas sector. The TAPI pipeline, spanning over 1,800 kilometers, will traverse: Turkmenistan – 214 kilometers Afghanistan – 774 kilometers Pakistan – 826 kilometers The pipeline will terminate in India, providing a crucial energy link between Central and South Asia.

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UNHCR Again Urges Tajikistan to Stop Deporting Afghan Refugees

The UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has called on Tajikistan to immediately halt the deportation of Afghan refugees, following reports that dozens were forcibly returned to Afghanistan last month. According to UNHCR, at least 80 Afghan refugees were deported from Tajikistan in December 2024, despite many holding valid refugee documents. The agency warned that such actions violate international protection standards and could put deportees at risk. By the end of 2024, around 9,000 Afghan refugees were residing in Tajikistan. UNHCR has expressed concern that further deportations could endanger many more lives. Regional Context and Increasing Deportations Tajikistan is not the only country tightening its stance on Afghan refugees. Iran and Pakistan have also intensified deportations in recent months. Reports indicate that Iran has expelled 586,000 undocumented Afghans since the start of the current solar year. Meanwhile, the Taliban’s Ministry of Refugees and Repatriation stated that nearly 12,000 Afghan migrants have returned from Pakistan, Iran, and Turkey in the past three weeks. The rise in deportations has added pressure on Afghan refugees, many of whom are already struggling due to Afghanistan’s worsening humanitarian crisis. UNHCR has reiterated its appeal for international cooperation, urging host countries to balance national security concerns with humanitarian obligations. Previously, Mosawer Bahadori, head of Afghanistan’s Migration Committee (Aryana) in Tajikistan, urged Tajik authorities to respect refugee rights and uphold their international commitments in protecting displaced Afghans.

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Uzbekistan Extends Agreement on Hairaton-Mazar-e-Sharif Railway with Afghanistan

Uzbekistan has reached an agreement with Afghanistan's Taliban interim government to extend the contract for operating and maintaining the Hairaton-Mazar-e-Sharif railway. Uzbekistan’s Minister of Transport, Ilhom Mahkamov, met with Mohammad Ishaq Sahibzada, Afghanistan’s Deputy Minister of Public Works for Railways, during talks held in Tashkent from January 21 to 23. Uzbekistan's Ministry of Transport agreement has confirmed the agreement. The meetings, chaired by Mahkamov, focused on accelerating the construction of the Trans-Afghan Railway project and planning the next stages of work. Both sides emphasized the importance of enhancing regional connectivity and ensuring the smooth operation of the existing railway infrastructure. Under the extended agreement, Sogdiana Trans LLC, a subsidiary of Uzbekistan Railways Joint Stock Company, will continue managing the Hairaton-Mazar-e-Sharif railway. This railway, constructed in 2010 for $129 million, has been operated by Sogdiana Trans since its completion. In August 2024, the Naibabad railway station — part of the Hairaton-Naibabad-Mazar-e-Sharif railway line — was reopened after restoration. The work was carried out by Sogdiana Trans in collaboration with the Termez Regional Railway Hub under a contract with the Afghan Railways Administration. Despite a 2022 proposal from Afghan authorities to transfer the railway’s management to local companies to reduce operational costs, the plan wasn't implemented. In 2024, the Hairaton-Mazar-e-Sharif railway facilitated the transport of 4,200 containers of goods between Afghanistan and China, according to the Afghan Ministry of Public Works. The Hairaton-Mazar-e-Sharif railway forms a critical part of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan-Afghanistan railway corridor. The corridor’s capacity is expected to expand significantly following the completion of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway. Currently, neither Kyrgyzstan nor Uzbekistan has a direct rail connection to China, with Central Asia’s rail access to China limited to a route through Kazakhstan. Construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway officially began on December 27, 2024. The 523-kilometer route will run from Kashgar (China) through Torugart, Makmal, and Jalal-Abad (Kyrgyzstan), before reaching Andijan (Uzbekistan). Once operational, the railway is expected to handle up to 15 million tons of cargo annually, creating a vital new trade link across the region. This agreement between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan secures the continued operation of the Hairaton-Mazar-e-Sharif railway and reinforces Uzbekistan’s commitment to regional cooperation and infrastructure development. These efforts aim to boost trade, connectivity, and economic opportunities across Central and South Asia.

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CSTO to Strengthen Tajik-Afghan Border in 2025

The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) will begin implementing a program to reinforce the Tajik-Afghan border in 2025, CSTO Secretary General Imangali Tasmagambetov announced during a meeting in Moscow on Thursday, according to Interfax. Tasmagambetov explained that the program outlines concrete measures to enhance security along the southern boundary of the CSTO’s area of responsibility. This announcement was made during a meeting reviewing the CSTO secretariat’s and joint staff’s activities in 2024, as well as outlining objectives for 2025. The meeting was attended by Andrei Serdyukov, head of the CSTO joint staff. In 2024, the CSTO finalized and signed agreements related to equipping its collective forces with modern weapons and military equipment. The organization also conducted joint operational and combat training exercises and actively collaborated with international organizations. As it looks ahead to 2025, the CSTO is drafting an action plan to focus on key priorities, including securing the Tajik-Afghan border, which has long been a source of concern for member states. The organization includes six member countries: Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, though in December 2024, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that his country’s relations with the CSTO have passed the “point of no return.” The Shamsiddin Shokhin section of the Tajik-Afghan border, spanning more than 100 kilometers, has been particularly problematic for years. This area has witnessed numerous security incidents, including hostage-taking and attacks on Tajik citizens and military personnel. The CSTO’s planned measures aim to address these challenges and bolster the security of this vulnerable region. By strengthening border security, the organization is seeking to reduce the risks posed by cross-border threats, including illegal trafficking and extremist activity.

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Afghanistan as Part of Central Asia: Expectations, Reality, Challenges, and Threats

Afghanistan has increasingly been regarded in expert and journalistic circles as part of Central Asia, which is justifiable from a physical-geographical perspective. However, given current regional realities, it is still premature to classify the country as part of Central Asia in terms of being internationally recognized as such. The outcome of the 19th-century rivalry between the British and Russian Empires for influence in Central Asia, known as the "Great Game," not only established the modern southern borders of the region but also set Afghanistan and its northern neighbors on entirely different social and historical paths. The countries differ in value systems, ideologies, public consciousness, and, of course, economic development. At the same time, experts from the Russian Institute for Central Asian Studies note that "In the early 21st century, approaches to analyzing regional realities shifted towards geo-economics. The spatial dimension of Central Asia began to be seen as a zone for pipeline transit." This perspective is hard to argue against — Afghanistan’s current geopolitical interests and challenges are largely tied to the economic interests of countries at the regional level. This includes India, Iran, China, the UAE, Pakistan, Russia, Turkey, and the Central Asian states, for whom Afghanistan's prospects are evident. Chiefly, these prospects concern its transit potential as a territory connecting various parts of Asia. Four out of the six logistics corridors under the Asian Development Bank’s Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Program (CAREC) pass through Afghanistan into Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. Other relevant projects include the "China–Pakistan Economic Corridor" under the "One Belt One Road" initiative, the "Trans-Afghan Corridor," and the TAPI Gas Pipeline. However, Afghanistan's current situation, particularly given the stagnant Afghan-Pakistani conflict, casts doubt on the feasibility of these and other major projects involving Afghanistan. As previously stated by TCA, the future of these large-scale projects involving Central Asian countries, as well as regional stability, a fundamental condition for steady economic development, depends directly on whether an understanding is reached between these two nations. Thus, a geo-economic approach to redefining Central Asia’s new boundaries still requires a different reality. Meanwhile, within Central Asia itself, there is little enthusiasm for political rapprochement with Taliban-ruled Afghanistan. The primary focus is on trade/economic and humanitarian cooperation, with no broader agenda, particularly at a regional level. Tajikistan’s position is significant here, as its authorities continue to view the Taliban as a threat and tread cautiously in building relations with them. What Prevents Central Asian Countries from Accelerating Relations with Afghanistan? The answers lie not only in different developmental trajectories and scenarios. First and foremost, Afghanistan is still associated with "uncertainty" and numerous risks, particularly in terms of security. According to many assessments, the Afghan-Pakistani zone will, in the long term, remain a source of terrorist and religious-extremist threats to Central Asia. These conclusions are based on a retrospective analysis of escalating tensions, current processes in Afghanistan, and the geopolitical confrontation of global powers in the area. For example, the Soviet invasion in 1979 fostered the consolidation of the Afghan mujahideen,...

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First Kilometers of TAPI Gas Pipeline Completed in Afghanistan

The first three kilometers of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline have been successfully laid in Afghanistan, according to Mohammed Murad Amanov, the executive director of TAPI Pipeline Company Ltd. Amanov stated that the construction is progressing rapidly, raising hopes for the timely completion of the project. Deputy Governor of Herat Province, Nakibullah Ayub, visited the construction site and confirmed that local authorities are fully prepared to support the project's swift advancement. So far, 3.4 kilometers of the pipeline route in Afghanistan have been prepared, aligning with the established schedule. The Afghan section of the TAPI pipeline, which spans 821 kilometers, officially began construction in September 2024. To date, technical surveys have been completed on 153 kilometers of the route, and the initial three kilometers of pipeline were laid within four months. TAPI is a landmark regional energy project that aims to transport natural gas from Turkmenistan’s Galkynysh gas fields to consumers in Pakistan and India, passing through Afghanistan. The project is expected to enhance economic stability in the region and attract significant foreign investment. Economic experts have highlighted the strategic importance of the TAPI pipeline for Afghanistan. Analyst Mohammad Asif Stanekzai remarked that the project could boost Afghanistan’s economic credibility and pave the way for increased foreign capital inflows. Additionally, Afghanistan is projected to earn approximately $400 million annually in transit fees. Last week, Afghanistan’s Acting Minister of Mines and Petroleum, Hidayatullah Badri, held discussions in Kabul with Mohammed Murad Amanov about the progress of the TAPI pipeline and strategies to expedite the remaining work.