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Strategic Partnership

Kazakhstan, Russia Sign Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Declaration

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a declaration in Moscow on November 12, 2025, elevating their countries’ relationship to what they have dubbed a “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership and Alliance.” The document was signed at the Kremlin during Tokayev’s working visit to Russia at Putin’s invitation. Ahead of the trip, Tokayev wrote in Rossiyskaya Gazeta that the new declaration “will open a new era in bilateral relations, confirming an unprecedented level of mutual trust and joint readiness for closer work in all areas.” Putin described Kazakhstan as one of Russia’s closest allies and said the agreement “outlines measures to enhance regional partnerships and border cooperation.” Expanding Economic Cooperation During the Moscow visit, both leaders highlighted growing economic links and gas supplies. Tokayev told Russian media that bilateral trade had reached almost $30 billion in 2024 and continued to rise through 2025. Putin noted that Russia remained Kazakhstan’s largest trading and investment partner, while Tokayev said he wanted to increase joint projects in energy, manufacturing, and transport. Energy cooperation featured prominently. The two presidents discussed boosting Russian gas supplies to Kazakhstan’s northern and eastern regions and reaffirmed plans to build Kazakhstan’s first nuclear power plant in cooperation with Russia’s state company Rosatom. They also pledged to coordinate policies in the oil and electricity sectors and maintain stable operations of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which carries Kazakh crude to the Black Sea via Russia. Education and technology links were also addressed; Tokayev pointed to new Russian university branches opening in Kazakhstan as evidence that bilateral cooperation extends beyond energy and trade into culture and science. A Long Tradition of Partnership Kazakhstan and Russia share a 7,600-kilometer border and economic and security ties through the Eurasian Economic Union and the Collective Security Treaty Organization. Their cooperation spans space exploration at the Baikonur Cosmodrome, industrial projects, and joint infrastructure development across Central Asia. Tokayev’s government has framed the alliance as a natural evolution of their longstanding partnership. “Despite the complex international situation, interaction and cooperation are actively developing for the benefit of our people,” Tokayev stated. Balancing Major Powers While reinforcing ties with Moscow, Tokayev has also been extremely active in his diplomatic outreach with other world powers. Just days before his Russia trip, Tokayev and his Central Asian counterparts met U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House in a C5+1 summit marking ten years of U.S.-Central Asia cooperation. At that meeting, he welcomed what he called a new stage of engagement between Central Asia and the United States and oversaw new investment deals. Earlier in 2025, Tokayev met Chinese President Xi Jinping in Astana during a China-Central Asia summit, where both sides praised record trade volumes and agreed to deepen collaboration in energy, logistics, and technology. Kazakhstan’s leadership views these parallel partnerships as part of its long-standing multi-vector foreign policy - a strategy designed to maintain balanced relations with Russia, China, the U.S., and Europe - diversifying alliances and avoiding dependence on any single power. Cautious Neutrality on Global...

State Visit

Tokayev in Moscow: Balancing Friendship and Strategy

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev begins a state visit to Russia in Moscow today, accompanied by a carefully calibrated message of diplomatic continuity. Ahead of his arrival, Tokayev published an article in Rossiyskaya Gazeta affirming Kazakhstan’s “eternal friendship” with Russia, a phrase that has become standard in bilateral rhetoric. While much of the piece reiterates familiar themes of cooperation in energy, trade, and culture, a few notable elements suggest deeper strategic positioning. From the outset, Tokayev appeared intent on striking a personal chord with Vladimir Putin. Mirroring the Russian president’s preference for historical framing, he wrote: “Our peoples have lived side by side for centuries, sharing joys and trials, and together creating a single cultural space in Eurasia. We are united by a common perception of traditional values, similar views on current issues of modern life, and joint work to ensure the well-being of our brotherly peoples.” The Kazakh leader also offered high praise for Putin’s leadership, describing bilateral ties as “mature and stable” and built on “deep trust, respect, and equality.” “All achievements in bilateral cooperation are inextricably linked to the energetic and productive efforts of President Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin,” Tokayev wrote. “In Kazakhstan, he enjoys unwavering respect as a statesman of global stature, and his name is on the lips of politicians and ordinary people in virtually every country in the world.” The visit’s key moment will be the signing of a Declaration elevating Kazakhstan-Russia ties to a “comprehensive strategic partnership and alliance”, a step Tokayev described as ushering in “a new era in bilateral relations.” More intriguing, however, was Tokayev’s commentary on Russia’s global standing, wherein Tokayev referenced recent high-level talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping, U.S. President Donald Trump, and leaders across Europe, Asia, and Africa. “Although many of them are at opposite ends of the geopolitical spectrum, they all recognize the exceptional role of Russia and its leader in resolving key issues in international relations. In other words, it is impossible to overcome the contradictions of the modern world without Moscow's participation,” he stated. While Tokayev has previously dismissed the idea of Kazakhstan acting as a mediator in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, his recent statements suggest Astana may be prepared to play a supporting role in future dialogue. “Kazakhstan is not a mediator in the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine and does not see itself as such,” he said last month. “In my opinion, both sides are capable of conducting dialogue on all contentious issues on a bilateral basis and at different levels. I have always believed and publicly stated that the ‘Ukrainian crisis’ is extremely complex and cannot be simplified.” Nonetheless, Tokayev offered practical insights into what a negotiation process would require, stressing the importance of expert-level preparation and dismissing the idea of hastily organized summits without a ceasefire or clear agenda as “unrealistic.” “If the leaders of Russia and Ukraine are willing to come to Kazakhstan, we will provide all the necessary services to ensure the success of the negotiations,” Tokayev added. He reaffirmed...

Freight transit

First Russian Freight Train Reaches Iran via Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan

A Russian freight train has arrived at the Aprin dry port near Tehran after transiting through Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, Iran’s ISNA news agency reported on November 8. The train carried 62 forty-foot containers loaded with paper, cellulose, and other paper products, according to Iranian officials. The cargo is destined for various regions in Iran and Iraq. The train crossed the Turkmenistan-Iran border at Incheh-Borun and reached Tehran in 12 days, marking a new phase in regional transit cooperation. Morteza Jafari, Deputy Director of Iranian Railways, said the arrival of the first Russian freight train is expected to enhance trade ties between Russia and Iran and lay the groundwork for regular rail services linking the two countries with Central Asia. He noted that Iran currently anticipates receiving one Russian container train every ten days, with plans to increase the frequency. Jafari emphasized Iran’s broader goal of becoming a regional hub for exports, imports, and transit by expanding coordination with neighboring and CIS countries. The new route underscores growing interest in enhancing rail connectivity across the Caspian region, where Iran is positioning itself as a key transit corridor. In August, Turkmenistan and Iran agreed to construct two additional railway lines at the Sarakhs border crossing to increase freight capacity. The decision followed discussions between Iranian Railways head Jabbar Ali Zakeri and Turkmenistan’s Minister of Railways Mammet Akmammedov during the UN Conference on Landlocked Developing Countries. Officials in both countries have stressed that expanded rail infrastructure will support faster, more reliable cargo movement across Central Asia and help integrate regional markets.

Russia

After U.S. Trip, Tokayev Heads to Moscow This Week at Putin’s Invitation

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev will travel to Russia for a state visit on Tuesday, a few days after joining other Central Asian leaders for a summit with U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House. Russian President Vladimir Putin invited Tokayev for the November 11-12 visit and the two leaders will discuss “the strategic partnership and allied relationship” between their two countries, the Kremlin said. "Kazakhstan is a special, privileged partner of Russia, a very important country and state for us,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday, in remarks that were reported by Russia’s state-run TASS news agency. Separately, Kazakhstan’s presidency quoted Tokayev as saying Russia is a leader in terms of the pace and volume of investment in the Central Asian country’s economy. While Russia and Kazakhstan share a long land border and have a close trade relationship, deals worth billions of dollars and involving American companies were announced at the U.S.-Central Asia summit in Washington, D.C. on November 6. The meeting reflected the efforts of Central Asian countries to balance their international relationships, particularly with Russia and China on the one hand, and rival Western countries on the other. At the White House meeting, Tokayev said Trump´s “wise and bold policy” should be supported worldwide and that the American president had boosted the role of the United States “as a pillar of international stability.” The early months of Trump’s second term in office were marked by conciliatory gestures by the United States toward Russia, alarming supporters of Ukraine, which is now in its fourth year of war with invading Russian forces. But the outreach faltered and U.S.-Russian tensions remain over Ukraine, nuclear arms and Western sanctions on Moscow.

Gas Supply

Russia Overtakes Central Asian Suppliers in China’s Gas Market

While Central Asian nations remain major suppliers of natural gas to China, newly released data indicates that Russia is rapidly expanding its market share and has now overtaken traditional exporters from the region. According to figures from China’s General Administration of Customs, as reported by Russian state media TASS, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan together supplied more than $7.9 billion worth of pipeline gas to China between January and September 2025. Turkmenistan, historically China’s leading gas supplier, exported $6.46 billion worth of pipeline gas during the nine-month period, representing a 12.7% decline year-on-year. Kazakhstan followed with gas exports totaling $854.7 million, while Uzbekistan supplied approximately $629.8 million. Russia, however, has emerged as the largest single supplier, exporting $7.29 billion worth of pipeline gas to China in the same period, an 18.9% increase compared to the previous year. In September alone, Russian gas exports reached $802.2 million, slightly exceeding August’s figures. The surge follows an agreement signed during President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Beijing in late August and early September, under which Russia committed to supplying 106 billion cubic meters of gas annually to China. In 2024, China’s total pipeline gas imports rose by 8.6% to $21.1 billion, with Russian imports growing by 25% to $8.03 billion. Russia’s growing footprint in the Chinese gas market aligns with its broader strategy to deepen energy cooperation across Eurasia. In February, Moscow announced plans to construct a new trunk pipeline to supply gas to northern and northeastern Kazakhstan. The pipeline, which will pass through Russia’s Tyumen region, is designed to transport 10 billion cubic meters of gas per year and will be supported by compressor stations generating 50 megawatts.

Labor migrants

Russia Announces ‘Deportation Regime’ for Migrant Laborers

It has been more than a month since the deadline for migrant laborers working in Russia to complete their registration documents or face expulsion. The anticipated mass deportations have not happened, but Russian State Duma Chairman, Vyacheslav Volodin, indicated on October 13 that could change soon. Volodin warned, “A new migration regime is now in effect… the deportation regime.” The Final Bell Several months ago, Russian officials announced the September 10 deadline for all migrant laborers to legalize their status to work and live in Russia. Russia’s Federal Migration Service created a list in the summer of 2024 of “controlled persons,” those who still did not have all the required documentation to remain in Russia. The list was posted on the service’s website in February 2025. Volodin said those on the list lacked one or more of the following: “documents or certificates required for obtaining migration status or citizenship, registration of a place of stay or residence.” Volodin said the list also included those who failed to complete mandatory procedures such as “annual medical examinations for [their] presence… as well as fingerprinting and photographing” or have failed to show that their “patent, work permits, or employment contract” was renewed. The Duma Chairman said some 35,000 “foreign citizens” had already been expelled between January and August of this year. September 10 arrived, and in the days that followed, there were no reports of Russian law enforcement rounding up migrants and sending them back to their homelands. However, it was clear the Russian government was not bluffing. In his remarks to the Duma, Volodin explained that as of September 1, there were still some 770,000 migrants on the register of controlled persons, and that one-third of them were women and children. If these people have not taken care of their requirements, Volodin said, “They need to leave our country, informing [us] of the date, place, and route of their departure.” The Dwindling Number of Central Asian Migrant Laborers in Russia There are several million foreign workers in Russia, and the largest group is those from Central Asia, though fewer of them work there than was previously the case. The terrorist attack on Moscow’s Crocus City Hall in March 2024 that left more than 140 people dead was blamed on citizens of Tajikistan. It sparked a wave of xenophobia in Russia aimed at Central Asians, and prompted a raft of new laws and regulations for migrant laborers. Uzbekistan’s citizens have long been the largest group of Central Asian migrant laborers working in Russia, numbering between 4 to 6 million, depending on the season, during 2016. Figures vary for how many Uzbek citizens are working in Russia now, but Uzbekistan’s Migration Agency said at the start of October that it was about 1.3 million, noting the figure fluctuates depending on the time of the year, and that during the warmer months of 2025, it was closer to 2 million. During his recent visit to Tajikistan for a CIS summit and a separate meeting with...