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Bulgarian Spy Ring Sentenced: Questions Linger Over Possible Unprosecuted Crimes and Future Threats

On March 7, 2025, six Bulgarian nationals living in the UK were convicted under the Official Secrets Act 1911 for espionage and the Identity Documents Act 2010 for possessing false identity documents. Following an investigation by the Metropolitan Police Counter Terrorism Command, the Crown Prosecution Service secured sentencing on May 12. Prosecutor Alison Morgan KC argued that lengthy sentences were justified for several defendants, stating that their actions had put lives at risk and compromised national security. Ultimately, Orlin Roussev (47) received ten years and eight months, Biser Dzhambazov (44) ten years and two months, Ivan Stoyanov (33) five years and three weeks, Katrin Ivanova (33) nine years and eight months, Vanya Gaberova (30) six years and eight months, and Tihomir Ivanchev (39) eight years. While these sentences address their espionage activities, concerns remain over additional fraudulent schemes undertaken by the group. Central to their operations was their use of stolen identities to create companies and bank accounts designed to implicate victims in criminal activities and tarnish their reputations. During the investigation and subsequent raids in early 2023, law enforcement seized as stated in court documents “91 bank and other financial institution cards in 17 different names; 75 passport or identity documents, including those in 55 names other than those legitimately used”. The investigation revealed that the spy ring was allegedly organized at a higher level by fugitive Jan Marsalek who reportedly held a diplomatic passport from Uzbekistan. The spy ring was mercenary in nature, serving a private and public sector clientele to target individuals, organizations, and governments from the UK, Russia, Kazakhstan, the U.S., and Europe with a blend of espionage and fraudulent schemes. A recent report by The Telegraph reveals that Marsalek’s network of spies was far larger than this group of six, with a spy network extending to the UK, U.S., Germany, Austria, Israel, Italy, Switzerland, France, Croatia, Hong Kong, and Turkey. The Bulgarian spy ring’s activities can be traced back as far back as 2015, with Roussev reportedly in contact with Marsalek during this period. By 2016, Roussev, Dzhambazov, and Ivanova were seen participating in a Brexit-related event at the UK Parliament, part of their apparent effort to gain deeper access to information and influential networks. During the three-month-long trial, jurors examined messages and transactions dating back to 2019. While the case primarily focused on espionage, it is possible that broader charges, as well as those extending further back in time, were not fully addressed in court. The sentencing of the Bulgarian spy ring marks a significant step in addressing espionage activities in the UK, but it leaves critical questions unanswered about the full extent of their crimes. Beyond espionage, the group readily achieved identity theft, document forgery, and disinformation campaigns designed to frame individuals, manipulate public opinion, and exploit geopolitical tensions. Their calculated efforts to harm Bellingcat’s investigative journalist Christo Grozev and implicate innocent individuals in fraudulent schemes highlight the broader dangers posed by such operations. The use of front companies like Truth on the...

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Victory Day in Central Asia: Honoring Sacrifice Amid Shifting Narratives

For the countries of Central Asia, Victory Day holds a deep significance. Although debates over the nature of the May 9 commemorations have intensified in recent years, the importance of the holiday remains unchallenged. A War That Touched Every Family Attitudes toward the celebration marking the defeat of Nazi Germany are largely shaped by each nation's level of participation in the war effort. Kazakhstan mobilized over 1.2 million people, nearly 20% of its pre-war population of 6.5 million. Of these, more than 600,000 perished at the front, with an additional 300,000 dying in the rear due to malnutrition, forced labor, and inadequate medical care. With a similar sized population, Uzbekistan sent approximately 1.95 million people to the front - or one in every three residents. Around 400,000 Uzbeks did not return home. Over 500 Kazakhstani and more than 300 Uzbekistani soldiers were awarded the title Hero of the Soviet Union. [caption id="attachment_31602" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] Eternal flame and Crying Mother Monument, Tashkent; image: TCA, Stephen M. Bland[/caption] Kyrgyzstan, home to just 1.5 million people at the time, sent over 363,000 to the front. Approximately 100,000 perished, and 73 received the Hero of the Soviet Union medal. Tajikistan mobilized more than 300,000 troops, with over 100,000 never returning. Fifty-five Tajiks received Hero of the Soviet Union honors. Turkmenistan, with a population of 1.3 million, sent around 200,000 soldiers and officers; 16 received Hero status. Central Asian soldiers played vital roles in major battles, including the defense of Moscow. They helped liberate territories across the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. The region also contributed 20-30% of its horse population, then a central component of local economies, for military use. The war profoundly reshaped Central Asia. Thousands of Soviet enterprises were relocated to the region, fueling industrialization. Millions of refugees from Nazi-occupied zones found sanctuary in Central Asian republics. Many children were taken in by local families and raised as their own. Today, many in Central Asia feel that outsiders fail to grasp the weight of Victory Day. While countries like the UK, U.S., Italy, and France recorded wartime deaths of 380,000, 417,000, 479,000, and 665,000 respectively, the USSR suffered over 26 million losses. German losses are estimated at 8.4 million. Celebrating Amid Controversy Recent years have brought a shift in how Victory Day is perceived in Central Asia. Symbols such as the Guards ribbon, criticized for echoing imperial Russian motifs, have sparked debate. Some argue that the holiday reflects colonial oppression, as the peoples of Soviet Asia were conscripted into a foreign war. These debates have grown louder since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, with some now viewing the May 9 celebrations as a tool of Russian influence in the region. Nonetheless, Central Asian leaders have rejected efforts to "cancel" Victory Day, reaffirming its deep personal and national resonance. Efforts to distinguish the celebration from Russian state narratives are evident. Many events now emphasize patriotism rather than Soviet nostalgia. On May 7, Kazakhstan held its first military parade in Astana in seven years,...

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Victory Day Diplomacy: Central Asia’s Balancing Act and Putin’s Diminished Spotlight

Every year, Moscow’s Red Square transforms into a stage for one of Russia's most celebrated traditions: Victory Day, an event which marks the Soviet Union’s triumph over Nazi Germany in World War II. Yet, as tanks roll through the cobblestone streets and military bands echo under the Kremlin walls, the occasion feels more heavily laden with geopolitical undertones than historical reminiscence these days. Against the backdrop of ongoing conflicts and shifting alliances, the presence of Central Asian leaders at this year’s event speaks to the region’s delicate relationship with the Russian Federation. But the question remains: amidst the pomp and circumstance, is there much for Vladimir Putin to celebrate? Central Asia’s Careful Balancing Act The attendance of Central Asian leaders at the Victory Day parade is a striking show of diplomatic choreography. On the surface, their presence will underscore the shared historical legacy of the Soviet era, when the sacrifices of the Central Asian republics contributed to the Allied victory in the Second World War. However, a more pragmatic lens reveals a balancing act that defines the region’s foreign policy. The region finds itself at the crossroads of global powers vying for influence in Central Asia. While Moscow leans on historical ties and cultural commonalities to retain its sway, Beijing’s economic clout continues to reshape the region’s trade networks and infrastructure projects. Meanwhile, as the inaugural EU-Central Asia Summit attests to, the European Union is eager to expand its reach, whilst hungry for Rare Earth Elements in which the region is rich, the U.S. is waiting in the wings. For Central Asian leaders, participating in Victory Day celebrations signals a nod to Russia’s historic role but also keeps the door open for economic and security cooperation. Amidst the shifting architecture of global politics, their diplomatic strategy remains one of pragmatism, seeking benefits from multiple partners while avoiding any over-alignment. What Does Russia Gain from the Optics? The presence of 29 leaders from across the globe – including Chinese President Xi Jinping - offers Moscow valuable optics at a time when its international relationships face significant strain. Last year, only nine attended. Isolated by Western sanctions over the invasion of Ukraine and with much of the world’s media painting Russia as cut off from the global stage, the impression of a united front with Central Asia helps the Kremlin portray the opposite. Victory Day, therefore, becomes a geopolitical tool, with the attendance of Central Asian leaders enabling Putin to send a message of shared unity within Russia’s historical sphere of influence. It tells both domestic and international audiences that Moscow retains significant allies, reinforcing the image of resilience despite ongoing challenges. How Much Does Moscow Truly Celebrate? The Victory Day parade is an event that is watched by an estimated three-quarters of the Russian public, drumming up patriotism as the state seeks to become the custodian of collective memory. Behind the spectacle, however, signs of disquiet are proving hard to ignore. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has disrupted trade and migration flows...

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Drone Attacks Intensify Security Worries Over Moscow Anniversary Event

Concerns about the security of dignitaries are circulating ahead of Russia’s plans for May 9 celebrations in Moscow of the 80th anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany, an event that leaders from Central Asia are expected to attend as the Russo-Ukrainian war continues. The unease relates to Ukraine’s growing capacity in drone warfare, a dominant feature of the battlefield after years of war between Ukrainian troops and invading Russian forces. On Sunday, Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said air defense forces in the urban area of Podolsk, on the outskirts of Moscow, “repelled an attack” by four drones flying toward the capital. “According to preliminary data, there is no damage or casualties at the site of the fall of the debris. Emergency services specialists are working at the scene,” Sobyanin said on Telegram. Overnight, Ukrainian drones targeted Moscow again, disrupting operations at four of the city's airports. Sobyanin announced on Telegram that at least 19 Ukrainian drones were intercepted. Although no significant damage or injuries were immediately reported, debris from the intercepted drones landed on a major highway. On April 28, Russian President Vladimir Putin unilaterally declared a three-day ceasefire in the war with Ukraine from May 8 – 11 to coincide with the celebrations of victory in the Great Patriotic War, as the Soviet experience in World War II is called. But Ukraine rejected the proposal, saying it seems mainly designed to create a safe environment for its guests in Moscow and that a U.S-backed plan for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire would instead represent a serious step toward peace. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said Ukraine isn’t responsible for anyone’s safety on Russian territory on the day of the anniversary celebrations. Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council, has warned of massive retaliation if Ukraine strikes Moscow during the May 9 event, saying on Telegram that “in the event of a real provocation on Victory Day, no one can guarantee that May 10 will come in Kyiv.” An analyst who tracks drone technology, Russian military weapons development and related issues said Russia’s concern about the May 9 parade stems from Ukraine’s growing expertise in drones. “Ukrainian long-range drones can already strike across the entire [of] Russia's European (west of Urals) territory,” Samuel Bendett, a researcher at the Center for Naval Analyses, said on X. The city of Sevastopol in Russia-controlled Crimea won’t hold a Victory Day parade for security reasons, said city Gov. Mikhail Razvozhayev, according to Russia’s state-run news agency TASS. Sevastopol hasn’t held a parade in the last couple of years because of similar concerns. In 2014, Russian forces occupied and annexed the Ukrainian territory of Crimea, where Ukraine has conducted periodic attacks with drones and other weapons since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. The Kremlin says Chinese President Xi Jinping will visit Russia at Putin’s invitation on May 7-10 and will attend the Victory Day celebrations. Russian state media have reported that the leaders of the Commonwealth of Independent States, or CIS, will also attend....

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Kazakhstan Boosts Rail Transit of Grain and Coal Through Russia

Kazakhstan has significantly increased the volume of grain and coal transported via rail through Russia, particularly along the eastern route of the North-South transport corridor. According to Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (KTZ), the country’s national railway operator, container traffic along this corridor rose by 63% in the first quarter of 2025, surpassing 1,000 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU). The North-South corridor links Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Iran, with an annual cargo capacity of 10 million tons. Its eastern route, which passes through Kazakhstan, is emerging as a vital artery for regional trade. Grain and Container Exports on the Rise Between September 2024 and April 2025, Kazakhstan exported over 650,000 tons of grain through Russian and Baltic Sea ports. Meanwhile, containerized freight between China and Russia via Kazakhstan increased by 30% year-on-year during the first quarter of 2025, exceeding 132,000 TEU. Coal Shipments Surge Coal transit volumes saw a particularly dramatic rise. From January to March 2025, Kazakhstan exported 2.3 million tons of coal through Russian territory, an increase of 44.5% compared to the same period in 2024. Of this total, 1.3 million tons were shipped through Baltic Sea ports, while another 900,000 tons were exported via Azov and Black Sea ports, a fivefold increase over last year. At an April 28 meeting in Almaty, representatives from KTZ and Russian Railways reaffirmed their commitment to expanding cooperation. The two sides agreed to increase shipments of Kazakh coal to Russian ports and continue developing strategic joint initiatives. In November 2024, KTZ and Russian Railways signed a landmark agreement to modernize railway infrastructure at nine key border stations. The deal includes plans to increase capacity and implement a unified digital system to streamline transportation and cross-border logistics.

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How Tokayev’s Kazakhstan Bridges Global Powers

Amid the ongoing reshaping of the global order, Kazakhstan is seeking to enhance its role as an emerging middle power. Preserving strong relations with all key geopolitical actors, strengthening its position as a de facto leader in Central Asia, and developing closer ties with other influential states on the world stage appear to be Astana’s top foreign policy priorities. The largest Central Asian state is one of the few countries that maintains good relations with geopolitical rivals such as China and the United States, as well as Russia and the European Union. At the same time, Astana is actively developing closer ties with the Turkey-led Organization of Turkic States, while firmly upholding its longstanding commitment to international law. It is, therefore, no surprise that, during the recently held EU- Central Asia summit in Samarkand, Kazakhstan, along with Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, backed two UN resolution from the 1980s that reject the unilaterally-declared independence of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus and deem all secessionist actions there legally invalid. Such a policy perfectly aligns with Kazakhstan President’s Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s 2022 statement, in which he affirmed Astana’s non-recognition of Taiwan, Kosovo, South Ossetia, or Abkhazia, and the entities he described as quasi-states, namely Luhansk and Donetsk. “In general, it has been calculated that if the right of nations to self-determination is actually realized throughout the globe, then instead of the 193 states that are now members of the UN, more than 500 or 600 states will emerge on Earth. Of course, it will be chaos,” Tokayev stressed. In other words, Kazakhstan upholds the principle of territorial integrity for all UN-member states, a stance similar to China’s policy. Despite their history of often supporting the right to self-determination over the principle of territorial integrity, Russia and the West do not seem to oppose Tokayev’s approach. As a result, the President of Kazakhstan remains one of the few world leaders who can attend the May 9 Victory Day parade in Moscow, regularly meet with EU officials, and participate in China-led initiatives. As the first Central Asian leader to speak with newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump in December 2024, Tokayev is also signaling his intention to deepen relations with the United States. All these actions demonstrate that, for Kazakhstan under Tokayev, the well-known multi-vector foreign policy remains without an alternative at this point. Although it is Nursultan Nazarbayev, Kazakhstan’s first president, who initiated this approach, it is Tokayev who has been actively implementing it since he came to power in 2019. That, however, does not mean that "multivectorism" has become Astana’s official ideology. It is rather a tool the energy-rich nation’s policymakers are using to improve their country’s position in the international arena. Nowhere is that more obvious than at the Astana International Forum – an annual summit taking place in Kazakhstan’s capital – where leaders from diverse countries, often with differing goals and values, come together to discuss global challenges, foster dialogue, and seek common ground. The fact that this year Astana will host...