Air Routes - The Times Of Central Asia

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Middle Powers

Which Central Asian States Qualify as Middle Powers in 2025?

As global power shifts toward multipolarity, Central Asia’s states are emerging as active regional players. This article assesses which of the five republics—Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan—qualify as middle powers in 2025, based on economic strength, diplomatic reach, strategic capacity, and governance. Kazakhstan stands as the region’s only consolidated middle power, balancing fiscal stability, institutional reform, and multi-vector diplomacy. Uzbekistan is a rising aspirant, propelled by reforms but still reliant on external financing and centralized authority. The remaining states remain constrained by dependence and limited institutional depth. Together, they reflect a region increasingly capable of shaping, rather than merely absorbing, global and regional change. A comparative analysis of five Central Asian republics shows how far each has advanced toward this status. 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This article assesses which of the five republics—Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan—qualify as middle powers in 2025, based on economic strength, diplomatic reach, strategic capacity, and governance. Kazakhstan stands as the region’s only consolidated middle power, balancing fiscal stability, institutional reform, and multi-vector diplomacy. Uzbekistan is a rising aspirant, propelled by reforms but still reliant on external financing and centralized authority. The remaining states remain constrained by dependence and limited institutional depth. Together, they reflect a region increasingly capable of shaping, rather than merely absorbing, global and regional change. A comparative analysis of five Central Asian republics shows how far each has advanced toward this status. Economic Power Economic autonomy is a defining attribute of middle-power capability, enabling states to project influence, sustain policy independence, and finance external engagement. In Central Asia, dependence on Official Development Assistance (ODA) and remittances often reflects constrained fiscal capacity and limited domestic capital formation, while diversified, resilient economies underpin strategic autonomy. Key indicators—GDP per capita, credit ratings, debt sustainability, and export diversification—illuminate the region’s economic hierarchy. Kazakhstan stands as Central Asia’s only consolidated economic middle power. Resource-backed growth, a prudent fiscal regime, and a sovereign wealth fund (the National Fund of Kazakhstan) have anchored macroeconomic stability. With a “BBB” credit rating or equivalent from major agencies, Kazakhstan demonstrates sound debt management and policy credibility. Ongoing diversification efforts under the new economic policies—from renewables to financial modernization—aim to reduce hydrocarbon dependence and deepen integration into global supply chains. Its role as a trans-Caspian logistics hub enhances both strategic and commercial influence. Uzbekistan, by contrast, is an emerging frontier market propelled by post-2017 reforms in currency liberalization, taxation, and state-enterprise restructuring. Rapid GDP growth and expanding private-sector activity mark its trajectory toward fiscal autonomy, though continued ODA inflows averaging around $1.1 billion to 1.3 billion annually, primarily from the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the World Bank, and bilateral partners such as Japan, the United States, and the European Union, highlight its residual dependence on external concessional financing. To achieve genuine middle power status, Uzbekistan must roughly double its real economic output over the next decade, a scale of growth aligned with the shift...

Aviation

What’s Holding Back Kazakhstan’s Air Transport Market?

Kazakhstan’s aviation industry has posted steady growth in recent years. Over the past four years, passenger and cargo traffic have risen by more than 36% and 23% respectively, with an actively expanding route network. The state’s aviation development strategy prioritizes infrastructure upgrades, improved safety standards, and expanded international cooperation. Yet, despite these advances, several systemic barriers continue to prevent Kazakhstan from realizing its potential as a Central Asian aviation hub. These challenges were discussed at the New Silk Way International Transport and Logistics Business Forum and the annual TransLogistica Kazakhstan 2025 exhibition. Experts agree that Kazakhstan’s air transport market ranks among the fastest-growing globally, driven in part by geopolitical shifts that have boosted the volume of Chinese and European transit flights through its airspace. Industry Trends and Infrastructure Expansion A major airport modernization effort is underway, targeting key cities such as Astana, Almaty, Aktobe, Shymkent, and Karaganda. Renovations have already been completed in Aktau, Pavlodar, and Balkhash, while new terminals have opened in Almaty, Kyzylorda, and Shymkent. New airports are under construction in Kenderli, Zaisan, Katon-Karagai, and Arkalyk. Total investment in infrastructure has exceeded $2.9 billion. According to the Civil Aviation Committee, in 2025, Kazakh airlines transported a record 15 million passengers and 171,000 tons of cargo. Transit flights accounted for 414 million aircraft-kilometers. Deputy Chairman Sarsen Zharylgasov has stated that the country now operates 56 domestic routes, up 9% year-on-year, and maintains air links with 30 countries. International Routes and Regional Competition In 2025, 33 new international routes were launched, connecting Kazakhstan to cities including Budapest, Munich, Cairo, Shanghai, Phuket, and Delhi. Currently, 140 international routes operate under the Open Skies policy, which has applied to 15 airports since 2019. Looking ahead to 2026, new routes are planned to major global hubs, such as Singapore, Tokyo, Rome, Vienna, and New York. The long-anticipated direct U.S. flight hinges on a successful completion of the FAA's CAT-1 audit, following Kazakhstan’s passage of the preliminary technical assessment in August 2024. The 2022 air transport agreement between the U.S. and Kazakhstan remains a key step toward this goal. Air Astana plans to operate the route using a Boeing 787 Dreamliner, though delivery has been delayed to Q2 2026 due to production backlogs. Meanwhile, Uzbekistan is ramping up its own ambitions. During President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s 2025 visit to the US, Tashkent signed a deal with Boeing for 22 Dreamliners. Analysts suggest this could intensify regional competition and enhance Uzbekistan’s appeal as a transit hub. Airport Bottlenecks and Tariff Issues Despite progress in large cities, many regional airports remain hampered by chronic underinvestment and outdated tariff policies. According to Zharylgasov, tariffs at several airports have not been updated in over two decades. “We are working to completely deregulate tariffs, but the Agency for the Protection and Development of Competition does not yet support us,” he noted. Eliminating state control over airport tariffs could introduce market-based pricing, attract investors, and improve profitability, particularly for regional hubs. Digitalization Drives Efficiency Digital transformation is another key priority. Kazakhstan...

Air Routes

Qazaq Air Launches Direct Flights from Astana to Bishkek and Samarkand

Qazaq Air, operating under its new joint venture brand Vietjet Qazaqstan, is expanding its international network with the launch of two new routes from Astana to Bishkek and Samarkand. Direct flights on the Astana-Samarkand-Astana route will begin on November 7, operating twice weekly on Fridays and Sundays. The Astana-Bishkek-Astana route will launch on November 10, with flights every Monday and Thursday. The airline announced that this expansion aligns with President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s regional integration initiative, which aims to strengthen ties among Central Asian countries through increased cooperation in tourism, trade, education, and cultural exchange. “These new routes between Astana, Samarkand, and Bishkek offer greater convenience for passengers and support the development of business, tourism, and cultural connectivity across our region,” said Adilbek Umraliev, Chairman of the Board of Qazaq Air. “They also open new opportunities for travelers, entrepreneurs, and students by linking cities rich in both historical heritage and future potential.” With its hub at Astana International Airport, Qazaq Air operates an extensive network of domestic flights and is now expanding further into regional markets. In May 2025, Qazaq Air and Vietnam’s Vietjet formally launched Vietjet Qazaqstan, a strategic partnership designed to bolster connectivity within Central Asia and beyond.

Air Routes

Astana Expands International Air Routes with China and Uzbekistan

Kazakhstan is expanding its international air connectivity, with new routes and increased flight frequencies to China and Uzbekistan following the Central Asia-China Civil Aviation Cooperation Working Group Conference (C5+1). According to the Ministry of Transport, Kazakhstan and China signed a Memorandum of Understanding to enhance bilateral air traffic and broaden the route network. The agreement includes adding a new Chinese destination, Kulja, to the Kazakh airline network and discussing future flights to Kashgar. Kulja (also known as Yining) lies in the Ili Kazakh Autonomous Prefecture of China’s Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, about 100 kilometers from the Kazakh border. Kashgar (Kashi), also in Xinjiang, is located approximately 455 kilometers from the border. While launch dates for flights to these cities have not yet been announced, the total number of flights between Kazakhstan and China is set to increase to 124 per week starting in 2025. SCAT Airlines has already opened three new routes this year: Shymkent-Shanghai (since May, two flights per week) Shymkent-Xi’an (since July, two flights per week) Shymkent-Ürümqi (since July, two flights per week) In addition, China Eastern Airlines began operating flights from Almaty to Guangzhou in July, with three flights per week. On August 13, a COMAC C909 aircraft flew from Urumqi to Karaganda and back, marking the first landing of the Chinese-made aircraft in Kazakhstan. During the same conference, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan’s aviation authorities also reached agreements to boost bilateral air traffic. Designated airlines may now operate up to 42 weekly flights on the Almaty-Tashkent and Astana-Tashkent routes, and up to 14 flights on other routes between the two countries. The list of permissible destinations has also been expanded. In July, Uzbekistan’s My Freighter (operating as Centrum Air) launched twice-weekly flights between Aktau and Nukus. FlyArystan began flying between began flying between Atyrau and Tashkent three times a week on July 15. “These steps are aimed at improving transport accessibility, strengthening business and cultural ties, and unlocking the tourism potential of both countries,” the Ministry of Transport stated. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and other regional partners established the Eurasian Civil Aviation Conference in 2024 as a joint regulatory body to address rising passenger and cargo demand amid the decline of Russian aviation dominance.”

Air Routes

Kazakhstan to Launch New Flights to 15 Foreign Cities

Kazakhstan will open 15 new international air routes this year, operated both by domestic carriers and by new foreign low-cost airlines entering the market. The announcement was made by Minister of Transport Marat Karabaev during a government session in the Senate, the upper house of Kazakhstan’s parliament. “The new destinations include cities such as Munich, Budapest, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and others,” Karabaev stated. Most of these routes will be serviced by Kazakh airlines Air Astana and SCAT. Karabaev also highlighted the entry of five new low-cost carriers from India, Thailand, and South Korea, following the implementation of Kazakhstan’s open skies regime. The additional eleven destinations are Cairo, Da Nang, Abu Dhabi, Hurghada, Busan, Osh, Mumbai, Kulja, Rome, Gazipaşa, and Samarkand. The incoming low-cost carriers include SpiceJet (India), Thai AirAsia X (Thailand), Eastar Jet and T’Way Air (South Korea), and Air Arabia Abu Dhabi (UAE). The open skies regime eliminates all restrictions on the number of flights operated by foreign carriers on international routes not served by domestic airlines. It currently applies to 15 airports across Kazakhstan: Astana, Almaty, Shymkent, Aktau, Aktobe, Karaganda, Ust-Kamenogorsk, Pavlodar, Kokshetau, Taraz, Petropavlovsk, Semey, Turkestan, Kostanay, and Uralsk. Introduced in 2022, the policy has been extended through the end of 2027. Karabaev noted that the increased presence of low-cost airlines is fostering greater competition within the domestic aviation market. He also addressed the development plans of VietJet Kazakhstan, formerly known as Qazaq Air. The airline, now under the ownership of Vietnam’s SOVICO Group, aims to expand its operations beyond Vietnam by launching additional routes between Kazakhstan and neighboring Russia. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, SOVICO Group is also considering the acquisition or management of an airport in Kazakhstan. Currently, VietJet Kazakhstan operates 14 domestic routes, four of which receive state subsidies, and four international destinations. The airline has reportedly been offered an option to manage an airport in the Kyzylorda region.