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Regional Security

The Middle East’s New Rivalry Runs Through Central Asia

Eighty years after Winston Churchill described an Iron Curtain dividing Europe from Stettin to Trieste, another geopolitical rivalry is emerging across the Middle East, with the swing states of Central Asia and the South Caucasus poised to play a pivotal role. From Gwadar to the Golden Horn, the new Mecca Pact brings together Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. From Pune in India to Piraeus in Greece, the proposed India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor, or IMEC, represents a different vision of regional integration, linking India, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Israel, and Europe. At the heart of the struggle is the Turkey–Israel rivalry for regional leadership in the wake of the Iran war. But the contest will be shaped not only by the Middle East's principal players, but also by countries on its periphery, particularly in the South Caucasus and Central Asia. When Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan walked out of a regional summit in Baku as Israeli President Isaac Herzog began speaking on October 15, he was accompanied by representatives of Iran, Pakistan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the Palestinian Authority, and others opposed to Israel’s actions in Gaza. But none of the five Central Asian leaders followed him. Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev went further. On the sidelines of the summit, he held a bilateral meeting with Herzog, speaking about the “dynamic development” of Kazakhstan-Israel relations. The episode illustrated that the more Turkey plays the Israel card, the more difficult it becomes to maintain cohesion across the Turkic world. The Competition for Swing States At a Hudson Institute discussion in Washington on October 26, analysts examined competing regional alignments as the Middle East prepares for an era of reduced American engagement. [caption id="attachment_59471" align="alignnone" width="300"] From left, Ken Moriyasu, Chaim Martin, Soner Çağaptay, Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Michael Doran at a Hudson Institute event on Oct. 26. Image: Hudson Institute[/caption] Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, director of the Turkey Project at the Brookings Institution, said the Mecca Pact is “an early experiment” in managing a post-American region. “In the long run, whether it's a Democratic or Republican administration, the notion of reducing U.S. footprint in the region is a very dominant theme, and you only have to look at the American public to see that,” she noted. Soner Çağaptay, director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, suggested the pact could best be understood through the countries it excludes, both beginning with the letter "I." Israel and Iran are seen as “part of the regional problems, not the solutions,” he said, adding that the Mecca Pact envisions a broad coalition of countries establishing a new security architecture without either country at its center. India is the third "I," said Chaim Martin, Israel's minister of economic affairs to the United States. "That too is an ‘I’ that is specifically not in that pact," he said. Israel views India as a key strategic partner, with both democracies navigating complex regional environments. Erdogan's Azerbaijan Problem Despite the ambitions of the Mecca Pact,...

Middle Corridor

Azerbaijan–Kazakhstan Ties Could Reorient Central Asian Integration

The five Central Asian presidents met with Azerbaijan’s Ilham Aliyev in Avaza on October 8 for the Consultative Meeting of the Heads of State of Central Asia and the Republic of Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan’s participation brings a principal outlet for Central Asian trade into the six governments’ economic deliberations. Within their consultative format, the states can coordinate industrial projects with the transport services through which regional producers reach foreign markets. If Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan connect cross-Caspian transport more closely to industrial cooperation, the corridor could become an organizing axis for regional integration. The Case for Trans-Caspian Integration Closer Azerbaijan–Kazakhstan cooperation would make cross-Caspian transport more dependable if trains reach Kazakhstani ports in time for Caspian sailings and cargo arriving at Azerbaijani terminals connects with onward services through Georgia. A 2023 assessment by the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), also called the World Bank, identified trade among Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Europe as a driver of corridor demand, giving regional exporters a place alongside China–Europe transit traffic. Onward connections from the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan (CKU) railway now under construction could run through Turkmenistan and across the Caspian to Azerbaijan, providing an alternative to routes through Iran. Conflict involving Iran strengthens Azerbaijan’s position as the more dependable western outlet for Europe-bound exports. Greater predictability could offset the cost of a Caspian crossing by reducing the stocks firms must hold against delays and the losses caused by interrupted deliveries. Extending the operating coordination developed with Kazakhstan to these southern connections could make Azerbaijan commercially preferable for Central Asian exporters serving European markets. Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan occupy the principal positions in this prospective reorientation. Together, they represent approximately one-third of the six countries’ population but account for more than three-fifths of their nominal GDP. Yet bilateral merchandise trade amounted to only $470.7 million in 2025. Their combined economic weight is thus disproportionate to the commerce presently linking them. The infrastructure and institutions connecting industrial investment to markets across the Caspian could give the two countries a basis for organizing wider regional integration, provided firms sustain commercial relationships through those connections. The Bilateral Basis for Regional Integration Export commitments depend on the cost and timing of the complete transport service. At Avaza, Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev attached “particular importance” to developing the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), also known as the Middle Corridor. His Azerbaijani counterpart, Ilham Aliyev, advocated joint investment, manufacturing, and entry into foreign markets. For firms undertaking joint production, the commercial viability of Aliyev’s proposal would depend on transport coordinated from departure to delivery. Kazakhstan is developing the Middle Corridor along with the eastern branch of the International North–South Transport Corridor, which links Russia and Iran through Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. At Avaza, Turkmenistan’s President Serdar Berdimuhamedov supported the development of North–South corridors in addition to East–West routes. Tokayev also highlighted the continuing importance to Kazakhstan of the North–South route in cooperation with Russia. Kazakhstan’s multi-vector approach thus extends to transport infrastructure: the Middle Corridor strengthens westward access without displacing the commercial connections maintained...

Energy Infrastructure

AIIB Signs $1.1 Million in Grant Agreements for Caspian Green Energy Projects

The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and Azerbaijan have signed two grant agreements totaling $1.1 million. The funds will support preparations for a submarine electricity cable between Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, as well as preliminary planning for offshore wind infrastructure in the Caspian Sea. Most of the funding, $1 million, is earmarked for the first phase of a feasibility study for the Caspian Green Energy Corridor. The grants are being administered by AIIB through the Multilateral Cooperation Center for Development Finance. The project envisages laying an approximately 400-kilometer submarine power cable. Uzbekistan is also expected to be connected via overland transmission lines. Experts will assess the technical feasibility of transmitting electricity across the Caspian Sea, as well as the scheme's economic viability and environmental impact. The Asian Development Bank will provide another $1 million for the study, bringing its total funding to $2 million. A separate $100,000 grant will support preliminary planning for shore-based infrastructure for Azerbaijan's offshore wind industry. This includes port facilities and vessels, as well as connections between future wind farms and the power grid. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Azerbaijan agreed to develop the energy corridor in November 2024 at the COP29 climate conference in Baku. In March 2026, the Mazhilis, formerly the lower house of Kazakhstan's parliament, approved an agreement on a strategic partnership among the three countries in the production and transmission of green energy. Kazakhstan formally ratified the agreement in April. The corridor would enable exports of renewable electricity from Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to Azerbaijan, with the possibility of further deliveries to Europe. Regional cooperation plans also cover the production and export of green hydrogen and ammonia using renewable energy. Azerbaijan's Energy Minister Parviz Shahbazov said the agreements would help develop offshore wind energy and expand opportunities to export electricity from the Caspian region and Central Asia. AIIB Chief Investment Officer Konstantin Limitovskiy stressed the importance of preparatory studies in attracting investment to regional energy infrastructure. AIIB's 12th Annual Meeting will take place in Baku, Azerbaijan, on July 14–15, 2027.

Avaza Summit

Avaza Summit Highlights East–West and North–South Trade Routes

On October 8, the presidents of five Central Asian states and Azerbaijan gathered in Avaza, on Turkmenistan's Caspian coast, to discuss closer economic and political cooperation. Hosted by Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedov, the annual Consultative Meeting included Azerbaijan as a full participant for the first time, extending the forum across the Caspian to the South Caucasus. The six leaders adopted a joint statement recognizing East–West and North–South transport corridors as priorities for regional development. The summit highlighted the region's growing importance in Eurasian trade and international supply chains. Beyond expanding transport networks, the leaders proposed closer industrial cooperation and cross-border investment, seeking to capitalize on their geographic advantages while preserving flexibility in their international economic relationships. Transport Corridors in Multiple Directions Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedov said, "I believe it is now important to intensify negotiations and practical steps toward establishing transport and logistics connectivity along the East–West and North–South routes." He added, "The Central Asia–Caspian Sea–South Caucasus–Europe corridor should play a key role here." He also emphasized that cooperation among Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan as Caspian states could help integrate the wider Central Asian region and other countries into these transport networks. Turkmenistan remained prepared to make its Caspian infrastructure available for mutually beneficial projects. Its port at Turkmenbashi and rail connections toward Iran give it a practical role in both East–West and North–South trade. The Turkmen president's emphasis on North–South connectivity also reflects ongoing transport cooperation with Russia. In May 2026, Turkmenistan reported that Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Iran were working on an agreement to improve freight movement along the corridor's eastern branch. Turkmen officials also outlined preferential railway tariffs and container services linking Turkmenbashi with Russia's Olya port. Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev also highlighted growing demand for the Middle Corridor, while emphasizing the continued importance of the North–South route. "For Kazakhstan, the North–South route in cooperation with Russia remains particularly relevant," Tokayev said. The statement is consistent with Kazakhstan's longstanding multivector foreign policy, which seeks to maintain established trade connections while expanding access to alternative transport routes. Kazakhstan, Central Asia's largest economy, occupies a strategic position at the intersection of major East–West and North–South transport routes. For the region’s landlocked economies, a wider choice of reliable routes can improve access to markets and reduce dependence on individual transit connections. Expanding the Middle Corridor Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev emphasized investments on both shores of the Caspian, noting that transit cargo volumes along the Middle Corridor increased by more than 10% in 2025 and by almost 20% during the first eight months of 2026. Azerbaijan has invested in ports, railways, highways and other infrastructure to facilitate trade between Central Asia and international markets. It also serves as a transit route for Kazakh and Turkmen oil exports, giving the country a growing role in connecting Central Asian producers with markets to the west. Tokayev proposed exploring the integration of the Middle Corridor with the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), a planned transport link through Armenia connecting mainland Azerbaijan...

Regional Trade

Central Asia and Azerbaijan Discuss Trade Expansion at Turkmenistan Summit

The leaders of Central Asia and Azerbaijan met in Turkmenistan on October 8, with expanding trade between their countries high on the agenda. Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev called for trade among the six countries to rise to at least $20 billion, up from approximately $13 billion in 2025. The eighth Consultative Meeting of the Heads of State of Central Asia and Azerbaijan was held in the resort of Avaza, with Azerbaijan participating as a full member of the grouping for the first time. According to Tokayev, trade between the six countries accounted for just 8% of their combined trade turnover last year. He proposed that governments develop a joint action plan to increase that share. Other leaders put forward proposals for closer economic ties. Uzbekistan's President Shavkat Mirziyoyev called for greater cooperation in manufacturing and a Central Asia-Azerbaijan Business Forum in 2027, while Kyrgyzstan's President Sadyr Japarov proposed creating a shared e-commerce platform to make regional products more accessible. One problem is the insufficient integration of national markets. Even where countries share a border, trade is hampered by logistical constraints and differences in business operating conditions. Tokayev proposed bringing existing and planned cross-border trade and logistics complexes and industrial centers into a single network. The idea is to enable businesses from different countries to sell finished products to one another and produce them jointly. However, Kazakhstan's major transport projects are not designed solely for its neighbors. Astana is investing in railways and highways to increase freight transit between China, Central Asia, and Europe. The projects include the Moyynty–Kyzylzhar, Darbaza–Maktaaral, and Bakhty–Ayagoz railway lines, as well as the Aral–Caspian highway project. The Middle Corridor holds a particularly important place in these plans, running from China through Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, and Georgia to Europe. It allows freight to bypass Russian territory and is viewed as an alternative to traditional northern routes. Kazakhstan is now proposing to explore linking the Middle Corridor with the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), a transport project through Armenia intended to connect mainland Azerbaijan with Nakhchivan. Plans for the route were outlined during talks in Washington in August 2025, and Armenia and the United States signed a framework agreement in June 2026. The route is to remain under Armenian sovereignty and jurisdiction. Astana has already established a technical group to assess its potential participation in TRIPP. For now, Tokayev is proposing that the integration of the two transport initiatives be discussed only at the expert level. At the Avaza summit, Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedov emphasized the importance of developing North–South transport corridors alongside East–West routes. Turkmenistan also supports the eastern branch of the International North–South Transport Corridor, which connects Russia with Iran through Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. However, an increase in freight traffic through Central Asia does not in itself mean that trade among its countries will grow. For that to happen, local producers need access to neighboring markets. The summit also addressed cooperation over shared water resources, with Tokayev proposing a regional framework...

Avaza Summit

Central Asia and Azerbaijan Head to Avaza for First Formal Summit

On Thursday, Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedov is due to receive Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Sadyr Japarov, Emomali Rahmon, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, and Ilham Aliyev in a place built to impress visitors. Thursday’s meeting will be the first formal consultative summit since Azerbaijan joined the format as a full participant in November 2025. The six presidents have already met once in the new configuration, at an informal gathering in Cholpon Ata on July 31, where they signed a declaration covering closer cooperation on transport, energy, trade, and security. Construction of Avaza began in late 2007, as Turkmenistan sought to create a national showcase on its Caspian coast. The resort’s hotels and sanatoria sit among parks and entertainment complexes, while eleven road and foot bridges span a seven-kilometer artificial canal. According to official figures, its hotels and recreation facilities can accommodate more than 10,000 vacationers. State institutions send employees there for summer holidays, echoing the Soviet tradition of workplace-organized vacations. These holidays help fill a resort where the seasonal rhythms differ sharply from everyday life in neighboring Turkmenbashi. Officially, Avaza is a district of Turkmenbashi, a city of around 90,000 residents located 580 kilometers west of Ashgabat across the Karakum Desert. The working city's economy is built around oil refining, the port, and transport. The Turkmenbashi International Seaport traces its history to 1896 and was rebuilt on a large scale before reopening in its current form in 2018. The Turkmenbashi refinery complex was founded in 1943 and remains one of the country's main oil-processing centers. The city itself was known as Krasnovodsk until 1993, when it was renamed Turkmenbashi after the title used by then-President Saparmurat Niyazov. The sea that was supposed to be Avaza's main attraction is now retreating from it. In 2024, one visitor told RFE/RL that the shoreline was 25-30 meters farther away than when his family had swum there three years earlier. A correspondent found hotels creating new beach areas farther out, while dredging was underway near the port. By September 2026, shallower water was forcing some ferries to carry lighter loads and pushing ports around the sea into costly dredging and berth work. The effects are already visible along the coast where the leaders will meet. [caption id="attachment_57713" align="aligncenter" width="1774"] The Avaza resort on Turkmenistan’s Caspian coast, where the five Central Asian presidents and Azerbaijan’s Ilham Aliyev are due to meet on October 8.[/caption] Turkmenistan is also hosting Caspian-focused meetings around the leaders' gathering, while the October 8 agenda includes climate, water, trade, energy, transport, and regional security. At the November 2025 summit in Tashkent, the five Central Asian presidents unanimously approved Azerbaijan’s admission as a full participant, extending the grouping across the Caspian into the South Caucasus. Aliyev has been careful to mark the change. At the informal meeting in Cholpon Ata on July 31, he said: "I previously participated as a guest of honor, but today I am taking part as a full member of the team." The format dates to 2018 and was deliberately light on bureaucracy....