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Interview: President of COP29 Calls for Caspian Summit to Tackle Environmental Crisis

Mukhtar Babayev, Azerbaijan’s presidential representative on climate issues and president of the UN Climate Change Conference (COP29), spoke to The Times of Central Asia about the urgent need for a summit of Caspian states to address the region’s worsening ecological crisis. TCA: Central Asia and the South Caucasus are among the regions most vulnerable to the climate crisis. In your view, what are the most serious threats facing the region today, and why? Babayev: You’re right to group Central Asia and the South Caucasus together, as both regions border the Caspian Sea, a shared ecosystem facing severe climate pressures. The most pressing issue is water scarcity, which has worsened in recent years. This stems from climate change and has contributed to widespread desertification across Central Asia, the Caucasus, and surrounding areas like the Caspian Sea, the Aral Sea, and Iran’s Lake Urmia. These processes are interconnected, but the drying of the Caspian Sea is one of the central challenges. At the recent Nevsky International Environmental Congress, Azerbaijan proposed a summit to address this crisis. The Aral Sea offers a stark precedent; its desiccation triggered not only environmental degradation but also social upheaval, including mass migration. Our focus now must be on mitigation and adaptation. Experts widely agree that the Caspian’s water level will continue to drop over the next 15–20 years. The impact is especially acute in Kazakhstan’s Atyrau and Aktau regions, affecting agriculture, infrastructure, offshore energy operations, and ports. The Caspian has now fallen below the lowest level recorded since the 19th century. While the situation cannot be reversed quickly, coordinated action is essential, especially measures to protect biodiversity and boost the water flow from key rivers such as the Kura, Ural, Terek, Samur, and Volga, which have seen significant declines. TCA: How is climate change affecting transboundary water resources? Is there a risk of regional competition over water shortages, and what strategies could Central Asian countries adopt? Babayev: It’s natural for states to prioritize national interests, but this underscores the need for regional coordination. A summit of the five Caspian littoral states could align strategies — particularly around restoring river inflows to the Caspian. A unified political approach could avert emerging tensions over water use. [caption id="attachment_32521" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] Image: TCA[/caption] TCA: Are there adequate mechanisms for coordinating climate strategies between Central Asia and the South Caucasus? Can a supranational climate agenda, akin to the EU or ASEAN, be developed? Babayev: The global landscape is evolving rapidly, with new technologies and scientific advances offering better tools for decision-making. Artificial intelligence, for instance, can improve forecasting and scenario modeling. Azerbaijan has integrated AI into state programs and is fostering regional cooperation in climate science. Building shared scientific capacity is the first step toward a common agenda. TCA: Given the region’s hydrocarbon wealth, how realistic is a long-term decarbonization of the energy sector? Babayev: Decarbonization must go hand in hand with biodiversity protection. While oil and gas operations will persist, Azerbaijan is actively investing in renewables. We’ve signed agreements with...

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Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan Stand Out at COP29

The 29th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29), held in Baku from November 11–22, 2024, has underscored the critical role of Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan in advancing Caspian Sea regional energy transitions. Both countries leveraged their positions along the Middle Corridor to present ambitious renewable and nuclear energy strategies. Azerbaijan: Renewables and the Middle Corridor Azerbaijan, the host and chair of COP29, has positioned itself as a renewable energy connector between Central Asia and Europe. Its energy strategy reflects a pragmatic approach to transitioning from hydrocarbons, which accounted for 88% of government revenues in 2023, to a diversified portfolio incorporating solar, wind, and hydropower. Azerbaijan has prioritized key renewable energy projects to align with its goal of achieving a 30% renewable share in its electricity mix by 2030. Among these is the operational Garadagh Solar Power Plant, a 230-megawatt (MW) facility developed by the UAE's Masdar, which generates 500 million kilowatt-hours (kWh) annually. Complementing this is the planned Alat Solar Project, a 400-MW solar installation expected to be operational by 2027. These projects aim to bolster domestic electricity supply and expand Azerbaijan’s capacity to export renewable energy. The Caspian Offshore Wind Initiative, backed by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), seeks to harness the Caspian Sea’s favorable wind conditions. A 1-gigawatt (GW) wind farm is under preliminary study, with construction anticipated to begin by 2026. This project could transform Azerbaijan into a renewable energy hub for the Middle Corridor, particularly as Europe reduces its dependency on Russian energy. Kazakhstan: Nuclear Ambitions and Renewable Diversification Kazakhstan’s energy strategy focuses on nuclear power and renewables, driven by the need to reduce coal dependency, which still accounts for two thirds of its electricity generation. The government’s approval of its first nuclear power plant, following a nationwide referendum in October 2024, is central to this strategy. The planned nuclear reactor, located near Lake Balkhash, will generate 1.2-GW of electricity, replacing approximately 20% of coal-fired generation. This initiative complements Kazakhstan’s status as the world’s largest uranium producer, supplying over 40% of global demand and generating $3.6 billion in export revenues in 2023. Potential consortium members for the project include South Korea’s KEPCO, France’s Orano and EDF, China’s CNNC, and Russia's Rosatom, although economic-sanctions issues complicate Russia’s involvement in the nuclear sector. Kazakhstan is simultaneously scaling up renewable energy projects, with several key initiatives underway. The Zhanatas Wind Farm, operational since 2022, produces 100-MW of power, and the Shelek Solar Park, a 200-MW solar facility near Almaty, is expected to come online in late 2025. Together, these projects aim to increase renewables to 15% of Kazakhstan’s electricity mix by 2030, quintupling the level from 2023. The Trans-Caspian Electricity Cable Project At the COP29 conference, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, along with Uzbekistan, announced an ambitious trans-Caspian electricity cable project through an underwater transmission system. This infrastructure initiative, estimated to cost $2.5 billion, seeks to establish an electricity corridor linking Central Asia with European markets, representing a significant step in regional energy integration. The project...

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Caspian Sea Water Decline Requires Urgent Action, Says UNEP Chief

By the end of this century, the water levels of the Caspian Sea could drop by up to 18 meters, a decline that would devastate ecosystems and species, threaten livelihoods, and jeopardize food security and regional stability. Inger Andersen, Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations and Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), highlighted this concern during the event, “Caspian Sea Water Decline in Light of Climate Change” at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, on November 18. According to Andersen, the Caspian Sea, the largest enclosed body of water on Earth, “is under siege from the triple planetary crisis: the crisis of climate change, the crisis of nature, land and biodiversity loss, and the crisis of pollution and waste.” Andersen warned that without urgent action, this environmental and human crisis may result in as many as five million people being displaced from the Caspian basin by the middle of the century. [caption id="attachment_25708" align="aligncenter" width="722"] Inger Andersun; image: UNEP[/caption] The UNEP chief mentioned the impacts of the Caspian crisis: declining fisheries, salinization threatening agriculture, and the critically endangered Caspian seal — a species found nowhere else on Earth — facing extinction. Andersen emphasized the critical importance of the Tehran Convention — “the cornerstone for regional cooperation on the Caspian Sea.” The Framework Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment of the Caspian Sea (Tehran Convention) was signed by the five Caspian littoral states — Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkmenistan — in 2003 and entered into force in August 2006 after being ratified by all five governments. [caption id="attachment_25706" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] Aktau, Kazakhstan; image: TCA, Ola Fiedorczuk[/caption] The Tehran Convention “provides a platform to align our efforts, to unite science and policy, and to prioritize sustainable development across this unique region. As the interim Secretariat of the Tehran Convention, UNEP is proud to support these vital efforts and remains firm in its commitment to providing technical expertise, fostering collaboration, and supporting innovative financing mechanisms to address this urgent challenge,” said Andersen, emphasizing that robust monitoring and predictive models are essential to understanding and managing the drivers of Caspian water level changes. “Science must inform every decision we take, whether on climate adaptation, biodiversity protection or pollution control,” Andersen stated, calling for regional cooperation to be strengthened. “The challenges the Caspian faces transcend borders. Solutions must do the same. Through trans-boundary collaboration, we can craft integrated solutions that safeguard ecosystems, support livelihoods, and promote equitable economic growth,” she stated. The Times of Central Asia earlier reported that the abundant floodwater in April-May 2024 raised Kazakhstan’s Caspian Sea water level by over a meter. On July 1, Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation announced that the water level in the northeastern part of the Caspian Sea had risen by 119 cm since the beginning of 2024. The COP29 summit has been widely criticized for its "theatrics," "slow progress," and handing out the "red carpet" treatment to fossil fuel bosses.

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Climate Crisis in Central Asia: Kyrgyz Geologist Spells Out Threat of Disappearing Glaciers

Kyrgyzstan's President Sadyr Japarov has warned at the COP29 climate summit in Baku that Kyrgyzstan’s glaciers have shrunk by 16% over the past 70 years, a trend that could accelerate if immediate action is not taken. Glaciers are a crucial source of drinking water for Kyrgyzstan and the broader Central Asian region. Japarov emphasized that the continued reduction in glacier size will lead to water scarcity and bring severe social, economic, and environmental consequences. “Our region is among the most vulnerable to global warming. By 2100, we may lose more than half of all glaciers,” he said, stressing the need for regional cooperation on green projects to mitigate the impacts of climate change. Kyrgyz glaciologists at the Institute of Geology have been monitoring the region’s glaciers since the early 1940s. Senior researcher Ilya Mezgin explained the alarming rate of glacier loss. “If you look at maps from 1943, two-kilometer glaciers were visible on the Chatkal Ridge in western Kyrgyzstan. Today, they’ve disappeared entirely from satellite images,” Mezgin told The Times of Central Asia. The melting has worsened over time. In 1985, Kyrgyzstan had 8,200 glaciers. That number has since dropped to just 6,500. Glaciers at lower altitudes are melting the fastest, while larger glaciers are expected to last until 2100. Mezgin noted that western glaciers in the Talas region are particularly at risk of disappearing. The mountains of the Tian Shan are composed in the main of crystalline and sedimentary rocks of the Paleozoic Era (i.e., about 540–250 million years ago). growth of the Tian Shan continued until 250 million years ago, when a large continental plate, known as Tarim, collided with Asia. The State Agency for Geology of Kyrgyzstan has suggested that glaciers can both retreat and regrow over time. However, the current trend is one of significant retreat.

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Saudi Arabia to Build Electricity Storage Systems in Uzbekistan

Saudi company ACWA Power has signed an agreement with Uzbekistan to construct electricity storage systems with a total capacity of 2,000 MWh. The agreement was formalized during the COP-29 climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan. Under the agreement, ACWA Power will collaborate with Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Energy to develop energy storage systems across the country. The implementation will be based on a comprehensive analysis of the national grid’s condition. The project will begin with feasibility studies to determine the most suitable regions for phased deployment. The initiative is estimated to cost $1.1 billion and is expected to create over 1,000 jobs during its lifetime. Uzbekistan has ambitious plans to expand its energy storage capacity to 4.2 GW by 2030. The first energy storage system in the country is slated for launch in early 2025 in the Fergana region. Deputy Energy Minister Umid Mamadaminov recently noted that Uzbekistan needs to build 10 GW of backup capacity by 2030 to support the integration of renewable energy sources. He emphasized that the country’s minimum reserve should equal 50% of its solar and wind power capacity.

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Bishkek Secures Multi-Million Dollar Grants at COP29 Conference in Baku

Boobek Azhikeev, the head of Kyrgyzstan’s Ministry of Emergency Situations, held several meetings with representatives of international institutions during the COP29 conference in Baku. Protocols and memorandums were signed, and a joint action plan for 2025-27 was developed. “I would like to highlight our meeting with the regional director of the Green Climate Fund, where we discussed a $25 million grant,” stated Kyrgyz EMERCOM spokeswoman Elnura Muktarova. “These funds are intended to support Kyrgyzstan’s Hydrometeorological and Forestry Services, as well as the Training and Research Center of the Ministry of Emergency Situations. We anticipate beginning these projects next year.” Azhikeev also negotiated with FETNet, a Finnish company that will provide advanced training for the Hydrometeorological Service. FETNet has offered to train Kyrgyz specialists in Finland and will present cutting-edge technologies to improve the accuracy and timeliness of weather forecasts. In addition, the Ministry of Emergency Situations announced that it had reached an agreement with the Asian Development Bank (ADB) to secure $60 million for strengthening the banks of the Kara-Darya, Chu, and Yassy rivers. This funding aims to reduce flood risks and enhance the ecological situation in the region. Of the total, 40% will be provided as a grant, while the remainder will be offered as a loan. During a meeting with representatives from the Financial Service under the Government of South Korea, discussions centered on financing Kyrgyzstan’s Forest Service. The South Korean representatives pledged support in the form of laboratory equipment, high-quality seeds, and digital mapping tools to combat pasture degradation and enhance forestry management. Kyrgyz Ministry of Emergency Situations officials also met with Turkish EMERCOM representatives and the Turkish Cooperation and Coordination Agency (TIKA) to discuss joint efforts in responding to emergency situations.