Energy Infrastructure - The Times Of Central Asia

Viewing results 1 - 6 of 48

Oil Refining

Kazakhstan Plans Fourth Major Oil Refinery by 2033

Kazakhstan plans to commission a fourth major oil refinery by 2033 and choose its location by the end of 2026. Daulet Arykbayev, director of the Oil Transportation and Refining Department at Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy, announced the plans at the Kazakhstan International Oil and Gas Exhibition and Conference (KIOGE 2026) in Almaty. The new refinery is expected to process up to 10 million tons of oil per year. Potential sites are being assessed in Ulytau, Atyrau, Mangystau, and Turkestan regions. “We have decided to accelerate the implementation of the new refinery project. By the end of this year, the assessment of four potential regions will be completed, after which the optimal region for construction will be officially selected. The new plant will become the core of a modern petrochemical cluster,” Arykbayev said. In February 2026, the government set a target of increasing the country’s total oil-refining capacity to around 40 million tons per year by 2033. The previous industry plan envisaged construction of the fourth refinery between 2032 and 2040. At KIOGE, the Energy Ministry provided updated capacity figures. The capacity of the three major refineries is expected to rise to a combined 27.7 million tons per year. Including the recently expanded Caspi Bitum plant, Kazakhstan’s existing refining capacity would reach 29.2 million tons. The fourth refinery would add up to another 10 million tons, bringing the national total to around 39 million tons annually. Kazakhstan’s three largest refineries are in Atyrau in the west, Pavlodar in the northeast, and Shymkent in the south. The Shymkent refinery’s capacity is planned to double from 6 million to 12 million tons per year by 2030. The Pavlodar Petrochemical Plant is expected to expand from 5.5 million to 9 million tons by 2031, while the Atyrau refinery’s capacity is planned to rise from 5.5 million to 6.7 million tons by 2028. To supply the expanded Shymkent refinery, Kazakhstan plans to increase the capacity of the Kazakhstan-China oil pipeline system. The project includes five new pumping stations and a 189-kilometer parallel pipeline section. Capacity on the Kenkiyak-Atyrau pipeline is planned to increase to 15 million tons per year, while the Kenkiyak-Kumkol section is expected to reach 20 million tons. The government is also seeking foreign investors to help finance the fourth refinery.

Oil Production

Karachaganak Maintenance to Cut Kazakhstan’s Oil Output by Up to 450,000 Tons

Karachaganak, one of Kazakhstan’s three largest oil and gas fields, entered planned maintenance on September 7, a shutdown expected to reduce the country’s oil and gas condensate output by 400,000–450,000 metric tons before work ends on October 1. The interruption comes in a year when the government has already lowered its national production forecast following repeated disruptions to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), the main export route for Kazakhstan’s oil. In August, Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov said Kazakhstan had lowered its 2026 oil production target from 98 million to 96 million metric tons. He put production losses from attacks on CPC infrastructure in January, June, and July at about 3.5 million metric tons. CPC loadings rebounded by 22% in August after July’s disruptions, reaching around 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd). CPC exports are expected to fall to about 1.5 million bpd in September, partly because of the Karachaganak maintenance. More than 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports move through CPC. The July shutdown at the Black Sea terminal showed how quickly an export disruption can force production cuts at fields far inland. On July 22, Kazakhstan’s oil and gas condensate output fell by about 21%, while output at Tengiz dropped 56%, from roughly 925,000 to 406,000 bpd. Karachaganak also depends on Russian processing infrastructure. Raw gas from the field is sent to Russia’s Orenburg gas processing plant. In June, Karachaganak reduced production after an incident at the plant sharply curtailed its intake of gas from the field. Karachaganak Petroleum Operating B.V. (KPO), the field’s operator, is expanding its gas reinjection capacity. The process returns some of the produced gas to the reservoir, helping to maintain pressure and sustain oil and gas condensate output. A fifth gas reinjection compressor began operating in 2024. In June 2026, KPO announced that the KEP-1B project, which includes a sixth compressor, had begun reinjecting gas ahead of schedule. The Energy Ministry has said the two compressors would help maintain Karachaganak’s liquid hydrocarbon production at around 11–12 million metric tons a year. Following the expansion of Tengiz, Kazakhstan had expected national oil production to approach 100 million metric tons a year. Its production capacity has increased, but the events of 2026 have exposed the limits of the infrastructure used to move that oil to market. In May, Akkenzhenov said there was no full-scale alternative to CPC. Some oil can be rerouted across the Caspian into the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline or east to China, but these routes cannot absorb CPC-scale volumes. CPC can carry up to 72.5 million metric tons a year from Kazakhstan. Whether or not the maintenance reduction was already incorporated into the revised forecast, Kazakhstan has little room for further disruption to the export and processing infrastructure on which its production depends.

Nuclear Energy

Uzbekistan Plans Joint Venture to Oversee Nuclear Power Plant

Uzbekistan has proposed creating a joint engineering venture with a foreign partner to provide independent technical oversight of its first nuclear power plant. The venture would review the plant’s design and equipment and monitor construction quality at the site in the Jizzakh region. Uzbekistan’s Atomic Energy Agency (Uzatom) set out the proposal in a September 4 report. The agency has not named potential foreign participants or said when the venture could be established. Construction formally began on June 4 with the first concrete pour for the plant’s first small modular reactor unit. Foundation work is now underway. The project calls for two VVER-1000 reactors and two small modular RITM-200N reactors at a single site. Uzbekistan describes this configuration as an integrated nuclear power plant. Uzatom says design work and construction of external utility networks will continue through the end of 2026. In 2027, authorities plan to order major equipment with lengthy manufacturing lead times. From June 22 to 26, the International Atomic Energy Agency conducted a Phase 2 Integrated Nuclear Infrastructure Review follow-up mission in Uzbekistan. The IAEA said Uzbekistan had made “significant progress” since its 2021 review, while identifying further work needed to improve the nuclear regulator and complete feasibility studies. The final mission report is expected to be published by the agency. Uzatom says the project’s environmental impact assessment has been approved and the necessary permits and licenses have been obtained for the siting and construction of the small modular units. Licensing for the larger VVER reactors is due to continue in 2027. More than 30 companies in Uzbekistan are being considered to supply cables and construction materials for the plant. Uzatom estimates that locally produced goods could account for around 21%, while authorities intend to raise the share above 30%. A specialized 200-hectare industrial zone has been proposed in the Forish district, around 25 kilometers from the nuclear power plant. It could support production in 15 sectors and create up to 2,000 jobs. Domestic firms are also expected to handle much of the work on the site’s utility and transport connections. A new town planned nearby would eventually house up to 33,000 people. At the peak of construction, the project will require more than 10,000 workers and specialists. Authorities plan for local personnel to account for 65%–70% of the workforce. Since 2023, 216 students have graduated from the Tashkent branch of Russia’s National Research Nuclear University MEPhI. Of these, 83 are continuing their studies at universities in China, Hungary, France, Italy, and South Korea. Four universities in Uzbekistan are training around 100 more specialists. Uzatom also plans to use the proposed engineering venture to transfer technical and project-management expertise to local specialists.

Oil Refining

After CPC Disruptions, Kazakhstan Wants to Refine More Oil at Home

Kazakhstan wants to more than double its oil refining capacity and sell more petrol and diesel to neighboring countries. The case for reducing its reliance on crude exports has gained urgency. Disruptions to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) this year have already forced the country to cut its 2026 oil production forecast by 2 million tonnes. Kazakhstan produced 99.6 million tonnes of oil in 2025 but refined only 18.4 million tonnes. Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov said at a briefing on August 25 that refining capacity is planned to increase to 40 million tonnes. “We want to bring this ratio, as in other developed countries that are also producers, to one to two or one to three,” Akkenzhenov said. According to him, Kazakhstan eventually expects to supply neighboring countries with motor fuel and expand its export potential. This does not mean abandoning crude oil exports: even after refining capacity reaches 40 million tonnes, a significant share of production will continue to be exported. Astana is instead seeking to shift the balance toward finished products. The oil refining industry development concept runs through 2040. According to the Energy Ministry, Kazakhstan’s refineries processed 18.4 million tonnes of oil in 2025 and produced 15.47 million tonnes of petroleum products. The concept adopted in 2025 envisaged refining rising to 39.2 million tonnes a year by 2040. The government has since accelerated the timetable, targeting 40 million tonnes of annual capacity by 2033. Average refining depth at the country’s three main refineries reached 90% in 2025 and is targeted to rise to 94%. To achieve this, Kazakhstan is preparing to build a fourth major refinery with capacity of up to 10 million tonnes a year. Possible locations include the Mangystau, Atyrau and Turkestan regions, as well as Ulytau, with the authorities expecting to select a site by the end of the year. The new plant could begin operating by 2033, with the Energy Ministry expecting its launch to fully cover domestic demand for jet fuel and allow Kazakhstan to expand exports of K5-standard petroleum products, broadly equivalent to Europe’s Euro 5 standard. Problems with the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, Kazakhstan’s main route for getting oil to the global market, have strengthened the case for diversifying the way Kazakhstan uses and exports its oil. The pipeline runs through Russia to a Black Sea terminal near Novorossiysk, meaning disruptions there can quickly affect production in Kazakhstan. On August 25, Akkenzhenov said the country’s oil production forecast for 2026 had been cut from 98 million to 96 million tonnes. He estimated production losses resulting from attacks on CPC infrastructure at around 3.5 million tonnes. The authorities are trying to compensate for part of the lost volumes by rescheduling major maintenance at large oil fields. Astana is also looking for additional routes to global markets. Akkenzhenov identified Baku-Supsa, the pipeline running from Azerbaijan to Georgia’s Black Sea coast, as one option, saying it could carry around 5 million tonnes a year. The route has seen only limited use since 2022, although...

Power Grid

August 14 Blackout: Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan Continue to Dispute Its Cause

The blame game over Central Asia’s August 14 blackout continues. Kazakhstan’s Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov says the large-scale blackout began with the shutdown of two generating units at the Toktogul Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP) in Kyrgyzstan. Bishkek does not dispute that the failure occurred but rejects the claim that it was the direct cause of the subsequent outages across several countries. Akkenzhenov identified the events in Kyrgyzstan as the starting point of the emergency. According to him, the initial disturbance occurred on August 14 at 2:37 p.m. Kazakhstan time, or 3:37 p.m. in Kyrgyzstan, when generating units No. 1 and No. 2 at the Toktogul HPP went offline. The loss of generation altered operating conditions in Central Asia’s interconnected power system and led to a redistribution of power flows in southern Kazakhstan. A government commission in Kazakhstan is expected to make the final determination. Kazakhstan’s grid operator KEGOC had earlier provided a more detailed chronology. At 2:37 p.m., three 500 kV transmission lines tripped, separating southern Kazakhstan and the Central Asian grid from the rest of Kazakhstan’s power system. About 2,810 MW of consumer load was temporarily cut off. KEGOC later said that immediately beforehand, two generating units at the Toktogul HPP, with a combined capacity of about 600 MW, had gone offline. The resulting changes in power flows overloaded Kazakhstan’s North–East–South transmission corridor, triggering emergency protection systems. Akkenzhenov said the protection systems had worked effectively and praised KEGOC’s response. Kazakhstan’s power system was restored in approximately 2.5 hours. Kyrgyzstan acknowledges that the two units went offline. The country’s Energy Ministry described the incident as the “initial disturbance” in the interconnected power system, but stressed that the first event in an emergency sequence cannot automatically be considered the cause of all subsequent outages. According to its account, by 3:55 p.m. Kyrgyzstan time — 2:55 p.m. in Kazakhstan — the frequency in the interconnected power system had returned to the normal 50 Hz. At that point, Kyrgyzstan was also supplying neighboring power systems with about 250 MW. Bishkek maintains that the outage affecting the Almaty power hub occurred after normal frequency had already been restored. Kyrgyz energy officials therefore consider it premature to directly attribute all subsequent events to the failure at the Toktogul HPP. The disagreement, therefore, is less about what happened first than about the causal link between the initial failure and the chain of outages that followed. Why the Regional Grid Is Vulnerable The vulnerability is rooted in the architecture of the region’s power system itself. During the Soviet period, its power plants and high-voltage transmission lines were designed to operate as a single interconnected system rather than around today’s national borders. Energy ties weakened after the collapse of the Soviet Union, but in recent years the countries have again expanded parallel operation of their power systems. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan are connected through the Integrated Power System of Central Asia. Cross-border power flows are coordinated by the Energia Coordinating Dispatch Center in Tashkent. Hydropower in Kyrgyzstan and...

Electricity supply

Kazakhstan Targets End to Electricity Deficit by 2027

Just days after a major disruption hit power systems across Central Asia, Kazakhstan reaffirmed its plan to fully cover domestic electricity demand by the first quarter of 2027. By the end of next year, the Energy Ministry expects the country to have a surplus of about 1.3 billion kWh. That margin would still leave relatively little room for error because it is equivalent to only about 1% of the electricity Kazakhstan consumed in 2025, when demand grew by 3.8%. The August 14 outage affected parts of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan. Power was cut to some consumers in Almaty, Kazakhstan’s largest city, which has a population of about 2.4 million. The precise chain of events remains unclear. Kazakhstan’s national grid operator KEGOC said the disruption began when two hydrogenerators at Kyrgyzstan’s Toktogul Hydropower Plant shut down, sharply changing power flows and overloading Kazakhstan’s North-East-South transmission corridor. Kyrgyzstan’s Energy Ministry later acknowledged that the Toktogul shutdown was the initial disturbance but said it should not automatically be treated as the direct cause of the subsequent outages elsewhere in Central Asia. A special commission is investigating the incident, although public statements so far have not identified its chair. The outage exposed a risk in regional grid connections. Kazakhstan’s grid is connected to Russia and neighboring Central Asian systems. These links allow electricity to move across borders, but a sudden loss of generation or a major transmission failure can also affect several countries in quick succession. Kazakhstan has been a net electricity importer for several years. In 2025, the country generated 123.1 billion kWh and consumed 124.6 billion kWh. Electricity imports from Russia totaled 4.64 billion kWh, compared with exports of 2.16 billion kWh in the opposite direction. The net inflow from Russia fell from 3.41 billion kWh in 2024 to 2.48 billion kWh in 2025. Electricity consumption increased by 3.8% in 2025, while peak demand reached a record 17.724 GW on December 18. Kazakhstan is also seeking to attract energy-intensive industries and large data centers. Those expectations are reflected in longer-term development plans, which already include 7.8 GW of new and modernized coal-fired generation by 2030, with investment estimated at more than $15.5 billion. The authorities expect to close the remaining short-term deficit by rapidly commissioning new generating capacity. Around 2.6 GW is scheduled to come online in 2026. Four gas-fired power plants and expansion projects at two existing power stations account for part of that capacity, while ten new renewable energy facilities are also planned. The Energy Ministry says these projects should allow Kazakhstan to fully meet its electricity needs by the end of the first quarter of 2027. A further 845 MW is planned for 2027, of which 570 MW would come from renewable projects. By the end of that year, the ministry expects an electricity surplus of around 1.3 billion kWh. Renewable energy is expanding alongside Kazakhstan’s continued reliance on conventional generation. Thermal power plants accounted for 74.4% of electricity generation in 2025. Solar and wind facilities, along with biogas plants, provided 6.1%. The...