EDB - The Times Of Central Asia

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Central Asia’s Population Surpasses 80 Million, With Rapid Growth Expected to Continue

The population of Central Asia has reached a historic milestone, exceeding 80 million people as of December 2024. Projections indicate this figure could surpass 100 million by 2050, highlighting the region’s rapid demographic growth and the challenges it brings for sustainable development. Rapid Population Growth According to the Eurasian Development Bank’s (EDB) macroeconomic forecast, Central Asia’s population has grown by nearly one and a half times over the past 24 years, increasing by approximately one million people annually. Tajikistan and Uzbekistan lead the region in demographic growth. Tajikistan’s population reached 10 million at the beginning of 2024, marking an 80% increase since 1991. Uzbekistan, the region’s most populous country, has maintained an annual growth rate of 1.1–1.2%, with its population now exceeding 36.7 million. The region as a whole has a youthful demographic profile, with an average age of 26.2 years. Diverging Population Estimates PopulationPyramid.net estimates Central Asia’s 2024 population at over 82 million. The discrepancy with other sources likely arises from differing methodologies and data collection techniques. Despite this, all sources agree that the population has surpassed the 80 million mark. Future Projections and Challenges Central Asia’s population is expected to exceed 100 million by 2050. However, rapid demographic growth presents serious challenges for the region. Key concerns include: • Sustainable Economic Development: Ensuring that economic growth keeps pace with population increases. • Job Creation: Addressing the needs of a growing labor force. • Quality of Life: Improving access to education, healthcare, and essential services. Managing these issues will be a top priority for state policies in the coming decades, as governments seek to balance population growth with sustainable development.

Finance Investment Projects EDB Infrastructure Development Economic Growth Infrastructure Banking

EDB Supports Construction of Strategic Highway in Kyrgyzstan

The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) has pledged up to $200,000 for a preliminary feasibility study for the Bishkek - Kuntuu - Belogorka - Suusamyr highway. This alternative route aims to connect Kyrgyzstan’s capital, Bishkek, with the southern and western regions of the country. An agreement for technical assistance was signed on December 5 between the EDB and Kyrgyzstan’s Cabinet of Ministers. Strategic Importance The proposed highway is expected to have significant strategic, economic, and social benefits for Kyrgyzstan. Beyond improving transport infrastructure, it will facilitate access to mineral deposits and create new employment opportunities both during construction and operation. Nikolai Podguzov, Chairman of the EDB Management Board, emphasized the project’s importance: “This initiative is part of the Eurasian Transport Framework, a key investment mega-project. It aims to strengthen transport connectivity among Kyrgyzstan’s economic centers while increasing the transit potential of Kyrgyz highways and attracting greater interest in road transportation through Kyrgyzstan from neighboring countries.” Alleviating Traffic and Economic Growth Deputy Minister of Transport and Communications Bekzhan Rysmendeev highlighted the project’s role in addressing existing infrastructure challenges. “The Bishkek—Osh highway, Kyrgyzstan’s main arterial road, currently handles 5,000 to 18,000 vehicles per day and is struggling to accommodate the growing traffic flow,” he explained. The new highway is set to reduce the travel distance by 164 kilometers compared to the existing route, providing an alternative pathway to southern regions and improving access to mining areas. “This public-private partnership project will ease congestion on the Bishkek—Osh route, contribute to economic and social development, and foster international and domestic tourism and trade,” Rysmendeev added. Regional Connectivity As part of the EDB’s broader mission to invest in Eurasia, this project aligns with the bank’s goals of enhancing regional connectivity and economic development. The EDB, a multilateral development institution, includes Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan as its member countries.

Finance Banking Economy Currency money National Bank EDB

EDB Forecasts Strengthening of the Tenge in 2025

The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) has projected a strengthening of Kazakhstan’s national currency, the tenge, in 2025. This forecast was presented by Aigul Berdigulova, a senior analyst at the EDB’s Country Analysis Center, during the bank’s macroeconomic outlook for the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) member states. Exchange Rate Outlook The tenge’s exchange rate has been under significant pressure, depreciating from 495 KZT per U.S. dollar in mid-November to 523.58 KZT by December 5, according to Kazakhstan’s National Bank. Exchange offices have reported rates as high as 525 KZT per dollar. The National Bank attributes this decline to external factors, such as fluctuating global commodity prices - critical to Kazakhstan’s export economy - and the weakening of the Russian ruble, a key trade partner’s currency. Internal factors, including heightened demand for foreign currency, have further contributed to the tenge’s volatility. To stabilize the market, the National Bank intervened with $1.2 million from the National Fund in November. Despite these challenges, EDB analysts anticipate a rebound in 2024 and beyond. “We believe the current volatility in Kazakhstan’s currency market is temporary,” said Berdigulova. She emphasized that the National Bank and government are employing timely measures, including mandatory sales of 50% of foreign currency earnings by quasi-governmental entities and increased transfers from the National Fund. The EDB forecasts the average annual exchange rate in Kazakhstan to reach 486 KZT per dollar in 2025, a slight depreciation from the projected 466 KZT per dollar in 2024. By 2026-2027, the tenge is expected to stabilize at around 497 KZT per dollar. Inflation and Monetary Policy High inflation remains a concern. The EDB predicts inflation in Kazakhstan will decline to 7.3% by the end of 2025, hindered by rising tariffs for housing and utilities. To manage inflation, the National Bank is likely to maintain a high prime rate, above 15%, through the first quarter of 2025. However, as inflationary pressures ease, the rate may decrease to 11.25% by late 2025. External Influences and Oil Revenues Marina Sobolevskaya, head of the EDB’s Country Analysis Center, acknowledged that the Russian ruble's depreciation would continue to impact the tenge, with the ruble expected to weaken from 92.5 per dollar in 2024 to 104 per dollar in 2025 and 107 per dollar by 2027. On the other hand, Kazakhstan’s currency could gain support from increased oil production, particularly from expanded operations at the Tengiz oil field. Higher exports and foreign currency inflows could mitigate currency fluctuations in the domestic market. Short-Term Recovery The possibility of a short-term recovery for the tenge was also suggested by Murat Temirkhanov, an advisor at Halyk Finance. He attributed recent volatility to a surge in demand for dollars, driven by sanctions-induced ruble depreciation. Temirkhanov argued that the tenge-dollar exchange rate’s sensitivity to the ruble is overstated, given the relatively small share of ruble settlements in Kazakhstan’s foreign trade. Halyk Finance estimates the tenge’s current exchange rate of 525 KZT per dollar is above its fundamental value, which should be closer to 505 KZT per dollar....

Finance Politics ABD water saving EDB Drinking Water Access to Clean Water Water Management Water Conservation

Ecological Limit: Five Year Countdown to Water Scarcity in Central Asia

Combating climate change requires collective action by all or a sufficient majority of the world's players supporting global initiatives. Otherwise, it may soon be too late to take any action. To address the issue, the Eurasian Development Bank, the CAREC Think Tank, and the Asian Development Bank organized a two-day forum entitled “The Climate Challenge: Thinking Beyond Borders for Collective Action,” in Almaty, Kazakhstan. Focusing on means of achieving genuine regional cooperation on Asian climate action, the eighth CAREC Think Tank Development Forum was attended by policymakers, experts, and opinion leaders from more than 30 countries. The extensive two-day dialog, consisting of eight sessions, opened with a discussion on the effectiveness of current global initiatives related to climate change: the Paris Agreement, the Global Environment Facility, and the Green Climate Fund. Attention then turned to deepening cooperation among as many stakeholders as possible through multilateral platforms such as the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Asia's role in the global fight against climate change, and the difficult balancing act between economic growth and decarbonization efforts were discussed at length. Simply put, the rapid growth of the Asian economy is inevitably accompanied by an increasing consumption of energy, the generation of which leads to increased emissions and pollution. Climate damage due to human impact can be halted and even reversed. However, because this can only be achieved with technological intervention, it poses problems for developing economies unable to afford advanced technologies. Hence, establishing a framework and mechanisms for global technology transfer were key to discussions. Water and finance were also high on the agenda and the subject of a paper presented by Arman Ahunbaev, Head of the Center for Infrastructure and Industrial Research of the Eurasian Development Bank on “Ways to close the investment gap in the drinking water supply and wastewater sector in Central Asia." Ahunbaev reported that 10 million people, or 14% of the population in Central Asia, do not have access to safe drinking water and warned that without intervention, the situation would reach the point of no return in the coming years. To prevent this from happening, he stressed the urgent need for solutions to four problems. The first problem is a twofold increase in the volume of water intake for municipal and domestic needs, based on past figures which showed a growth from 4.2 cubic kilometers in 1994 to 8.6 cubic kilometers in 2020. The second problem is the severe deterioration of water supply infrastructure and treatment equipment, and the third, technological and commercial water losses in distribution networks. The fourth problem is related to the demographic boom and, consequently, the rapid urbanization of Central Asia's population. Cities are expanding and their infrastructure needs to develop accordingly. According to experts, in 2023, urbanization in Central Asian countries will reach 49%, and by 2050, 61%. By 2030, the urban population will exceed that in rural areas. Ahunbaev noted the need for improvement in financing the water supply and sanitation sector in Central Asia since according to rough...

EDB Economy

EDB Identifies Key Risks for Tajikistan’s Economy

Analysts from the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) have presented a macroeconomic forecast for Tajikistan for 2024-2026. In it they identify the main short-term risks for the country's economy. According to the forecast, the critical risks for Tajikistan come from outside. "High interest rates in developed countries and structural problems in China's economy may lead to a slowdown in global economic growth and lower prices for raw materials," the report says. This could reduce the demand for goods exported by Tajikistan. Another consequence of this scenario will be a reduction in remittances coming into the country, mainly from oil-exporting countries. This would lead to a slowdown in household consumption growth and a decline in non-state investment, pushing GDP growth below the equilibrium level. In such a development, fiscal policy, assistance from international financial organizations, and lower prices for imported food and energy will support the economy. Despite these challenges, EDB analysts forecast high growth rates for Tajikistan's economy: 8.0% in 2024, 8.2% in 2025 and 7.8% in 2026. This growth is due to strong domestic demand, higher-than-expected prices for gold and base metals exported by Tajikistan, and favorable remittance dynamics due to rising wages in the region. Until the end of this year, according to EDB economists' estimates, the slowdown in demand growth in external markets will have a restraining effect on the economy. This will negatively affect real exports and the inflow of remittances and investments into the country. However, as the authors of the forecast note, the growth of prices for metals exported by Tajikistan, especially gold, will balance this negative impact.

EDB International investment Water Management International Cooperation UNDP

Kazakhstan, UNDP, and Eurasian Development Bank Unite in Water Management

On 28 June, the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation of Kazakhstan, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in Kazakhstan, and the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) signed a letter of intent to cooperate on joint development projects in multi-purpose water resources management. As reported by the EDB Media Centre, as part of the agreement, the EDB plans to allocate approximately US $5.3 million in technical assistance to implement several initiatives including water sector digitalization, the development of regional training centres for state-of-the-art irrigation technologies, piloting modern water-saving technologies, and developing a legal and institutional framework for the water sector. Kazakhstan is experiencing an increase in water-related disasters, as evidenced by recent severe floods and escalating water shortages caused by new infrastructure projects in neighbouring regions, and to mitigate future risks, must instigate improved irrigation and water management strategies. Nurzhan Nurzhigitov, Kazakhstan’s Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation, commented: “Our Ministry faces many important tasks, one of which is the modernization and improvement of the country’s water management system. For this purpose, a concept and its comprehensive plan outlining specific measures for the development of water infrastructure in Kazakhstan and other large-scale projects were developed and approved. We intend to actively cooperate with international organizations and financial institutions, adopt the best practices of other countries, and jointly implement large projects that will bring benefits for decades to come. Today’s agreement is another step in this direction.” Nikolay Podguzov, Chairman of the EDB Management Board, added: “We are on the verge of a water shortage in Central Asia – this is a complex regional challenge, but we are tackling it. This is the call we want to convey to all interested parties. We must act very quickly and together. We have only five years to get the region ready and avoid severe water shortages. To timely inform all interested parties, we have done significant work and will keep working to expand the network of partnerships.” “Globally, the water sector suffers from insufficient funding and investment,” highlighted Sukhrob Khojimatov, UNDP Resident Representative a.i. in Kazakhstan. “Today, less than 10% of global investment goes into water infrastructure. In this context, we are encouraged by this partnership, which we believe will help address complex issues in water management, strengthen climate resilience, and develop regional cooperation in Central Asia under the water agenda.”