Ecological Limit: Five Year Countdown to Water Scarcity in Central Asia

Photo: TCA, CAREC Think Tank

Combating climate change requires collective action by all or a sufficient majority of the world’s players supporting global initiatives. Otherwise, it may soon be too late to take any action.

To address the issue, the Eurasian Development Bank, the CAREC Think Tank, and the Asian Development Bank organized a two-day forum entitled The Climate Challenge: Thinking Beyond Borders for Collective Action,” in Almaty, Kazakhstan.

Focusing on means of achieving genuine regional cooperation on Asian climate action, the eighth CAREC Think Tank Development Forum was attended by policymakers, experts, and opinion leaders from more than 30 countries.

The extensive two-day dialog, consisting of eight sessions, opened with a discussion on the effectiveness of current global initiatives related to climate change: the Paris Agreement, the Global Environment Facility, and the Green Climate Fund. Attention then turned to deepening cooperation among as many stakeholders as possible through multilateral platforms such as the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Asia’s role in the global fight against climate change, and the difficult balancing act between economic growth and decarbonization efforts were discussed at length. Simply put, the rapid growth of the Asian economy is inevitably accompanied by an increasing consumption of energy, the generation of which leads to increased emissions and pollution.

Climate damage due to human impact can be halted and even reversed. However, because this can only be achieved with technological intervention, it poses problems for developing economies unable to afford advanced technologies. Hence, establishing a framework and mechanisms for global technology transfer were key to discussions.

Water and finance were also high on the agenda and the subject of a paper presented by Arman Ahunbaev, Head of the Center for Infrastructure and Industrial Research of the Eurasian Development Bank on “Ways to close the investment gap in the drinking water supply and wastewater sector in Central Asia.”

Ahunbaev reported that 10 million people, or 14% of the population in Central Asia, do not have access to safe drinking water and warned that without intervention, the situation would reach the point of no return in the coming years. To prevent this from happening, he stressed the urgent need for solutions to four problems.

The first problem is a twofold increase in the volume of water intake for municipal and domestic needs, based on past figures which showed a growth from 4.2 cubic kilometers in 1994 to 8.6 cubic kilometers in 2020.

The second problem is the severe deterioration of water supply infrastructure and treatment equipment, and the third, technological and commercial water losses in distribution networks.

The fourth problem is related to the demographic boom and, consequently, the rapid urbanization of Central Asia’s population. Cities are expanding and  their infrastructure needs to develop accordingly. According to experts, in 2023, urbanization in Central Asian countries will reach 49%, and by 2050, 61%. By 2030, the urban population will exceed that in rural areas.

Ahunbaev noted the need for improvement in financing the water supply and sanitation sector in Central Asia since according to rough estimates, the regional deficit in this area is around 12 billion dollars or 2 billion dollars annually.

He proposed strengthening public-private partnership as a potential solution, whereby the water sector would be reformed to allow expansion of ownership and management of its enterprises.

“It is necessary to improve legislation so that there would be an opportunity to attract, among other things, private capital. We see that the state’s budget is limited. Hence, the idea is to develop public-private partnerships and open the possibility of attracting private capital,” Akhunbayev explained.

The expert clarified that rather than transferring the sector’s enterprises and facilities entirely into private hands, his proposal would provide an opportunity for private investors to invest alongside the state, to help it fulfil its remit.

“But the state must retain its leading role,” stressed Ahunbayev. ” International experience only talks about this. But private capital can greatly help professional management.”

Another possible measure to correct the situation regarding the region’s water sector is to prioritize investments, optimize the volume of funds attracted, and free up a significant share of capital investments. The EDB also believes it  necessary to improve tariff policy, i.e., to raise tariffs, which in Central Asian countries today, are around five times lower than those in Europe.

“Tariff setting functions should be gradually transferred to the water supply and wastewater sector enterprises. But -should only be implemented-  under the supervision of local executive bodies or an independent regulator and with public participation,” added Ahunbayev.

To prevent possible water shortages, Central Asian countries need to make institutional and legal decisions regarding the creation of precise inter-sectoral coordination mechanisms, help restore project expertise, train engineering and technical personnel and the systematic instigation of water protection principles.

Ahunbayev closed by emphasizing the need for the immediate implementation of all of the above recommendations.  In addition to the demographic explosion, Central Asia is experiencing relatively rapid economic development, which in turn, leads to increasing water consumption. If we do not take care of it right now, it will be too late in five years’ time.

Andrei Matveev

Andrei Matveev

Andrei Matveev is a journalist from Kazakhstan.

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