Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) - The Times Of Central Asia

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Growth Forecasts

Why Central Asia Growth Forecasts Differ So Sharply

How fast can Central Asia continue to grow? The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) give markedly different answers. The contrast is sharpest in Kyrgyzstan, where the EDB expects another year of double-digit growth, while the IMF sees a much more pronounced slowdown. Both institutions are looking at the same countries and have access to broadly the same set of macroeconomic data. Their forecasts, however, reflect different assessments of how much of Central Asia’s recent momentum can be sustained. The EDB expects strong investment to keep growth high, while the IMF is more cautious about how long the recent pace of expansion can continue. The EDB is itself a regional development institution. It was established by Russia and Kazakhstan in 2006, with Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan later becoming shareholders. Uzbekistan joined the bank in 2025. The EDB is headquartered in Almaty. The comparison covers the four Central Asian states that are EDB members; Turkmenistan is not included. Its latest forecast for Central Asia is optimistic. In 2026, the EDB expects growth of 10.2% in Kyrgyzstan, 8.3% in Tajikistan, 7.9% in Uzbekistan, and 5.5% in Kazakhstan. The region’s economy as a whole is expected to grow by more than 6.5%, with its combined GDP exceeding $600 billion for the first time. The IMF gives lower figures. Its latest available country projections put 2026 growth at 4.6% for Kazakhstan, 6.8% for Uzbekistan, 6.1% for Kyrgyzstan, and 6.0% for Tajikistan. These projections were published at different times rather than as a single set of four country forecasts. The largest gap is in Kyrgyzstan, where the forecasts differ by 4.1 percentage points, but there are nevertheless modest percentage point gaps between the forecasts for Tajikistan (2.3), Uzbekistan (1.1), and Kazakhstan (0.9). These differences are large enough to raise the question: why the difference in expectations? Part of the answer lies in how the institutions assess the effect of a more uncertain global economy. The IMF expects the world economy to grow by 3% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. Its July update said the conflict in the Middle East was weighing particularly heavily on energy importers and warned that renewed conflict or financial-market disruption could weaken the outlook. For the four countries, this means different things. Kazakhstan exports oil and benefits from high prices, although it also depends on the condition of export routes and external demand. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan import a significant share of their fuel, while their economies are closely linked to migrant remittances. Uzbekistan has a larger domestic market and its own resource base. Kazakhstan illustrates the logic of the IMF forecast particularly well. Its GDP grew by 6.5% in 2025, one of its strongest performances in recent years. The Fund does not expect that surge to be repeated. Oil production is expected to stabilize after last year’s increase, with growth slowing to 4.6% in 2026, according to the IMF forecast. This does not mean that the Fund attributes everything to oil. Domestic demand remains strong,...

Transport Corridors

EDB Says Uzbekistan Is Becoming a Eurasian Transport Hub

Uzbekistan is becoming a crossroads of Eurasian transport corridors, Alexei Skatin, deputy chairman of the Management Board of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), said at the Tashkent International Investment Forum on June 18. Skatin made the remarks during a panel session titled Transforming the Railway Sector and Developing New Logistics Corridors in Central Asia: Investment Opportunities and Regional Connectivity. According to Skatin, three key railway corridors will pass through the country: the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, which is already under construction; the Trans-Afghan railway; and the planned Tashkent-Samarkand high-speed rail line. The China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan corridor is expected to provide a direct container link between Uzbekistan and China, with further connections to Turkmenistan, the South Caucasus, Turkey, and the Gulf states. According to EDB estimates, the corridor could increase container traffic through Uzbekistan fivefold, from 100,000 to 500,000 TEU. The Trans-Afghan railway corridor is expected to provide direct access to Pakistani ports, reducing the distance for Uzbek cargo shipments by at least 1,000 kilometers. The Tashkent-Samarkand high-speed rail line, described by the EDB as the first dedicated high-speed rail project in Central Asia, is expected to free up the existing line for freight and container traffic. The completion of the Darbaza-Maktaaral railway in Kazakhstan and the creation of a new border crossing are expected to integrate Uzbekistan into the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, also known as the Middle Corridor. “Uzbekistan is transforming from a landlocked country into a crossroads of East-West and North-South routes. It is the combination of these routes that makes it a point of intersection, not just a transit point,” Skatin said. He added that transport corridor development is impossible without the simultaneous expansion of warehousing infrastructure, dry ports, and container terminals. According to EDB estimates, demand for warehousing in Uzbekistan could grow more than sevenfold, while current availability remains low. “A transport corridor only works when goods move along it. That is why we consider warehouses, dry ports, and terminals together with transport routes, not separately. Warehouses are not an add-on to corridors; they are a condition for corridors to generate revenue,” Skatin said. The EDB says it is the leading multilateral development bank in non-sovereign financing in Central Asia. The bank sees its role as unlocking the investment potential of transport corridors and related infrastructure, including warehouses, dry ports, and terminals in Uzbekistan. According to EDB estimates, freight traffic in Central Asia will grow by 50% by 2030, reaching 95 million metric tons compared with 2024, while container traffic is expected to grow by 67% to 1.7 million TEU.

Eurasian Development Bank (EDB)

EDB to Provide Tajikistan With $18.5 Million for Road Construction in Gorno-Badakhshan

The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) will finance the construction of a section of the Labidjar-Kalaikhumb highway in Tajikistan in a project aimed at improving transport connections with the country’s remote Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region (GBAO) and increasing access to mountainous areas. The financing agreement was signed by the EDB’s country director for Tajikistan, Vladimir Yakunin, and Tajik Finance Minister Fayziddin Kakhhorzoda. Under the agreement, the bank will provide Tajikistan with concessional financing totaling $18.5 million. Of that amount, $17 million will be issued as a loan, while an additional $1.5 million will be allocated as a targeted grant. The funds will be used for the construction and reconstruction of the first section of the Labidjar-Kalaikhumb road. The project includes the construction of ten kilometers of roadway and three bridges. Project developers say the new infrastructure will improve cargo transport safety, enhance access to remote mountain regions, and create additional opportunities for business development and trade. The project is also expected to strengthen transport links between Tajikistan’s centrally administered districts and the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region. “The project will become part of a broader effort to modernize Tajikistan’s transport infrastructure and will contribute to the country’s socio-economic development, the expansion of interregional ties, and increased population mobility,” Yakunin said. He added that support for infrastructure projects remains one of the bank’s key strategic priorities. The Eurasian Development Bank has operated across the Eurasian region for nearly two decades. The institution finances projects in transport, digital infrastructure, agriculture, industry, and green energy. According to the bank, by the end of 2025, its portfolio included 326 projects with a combined investment volume of approximately $19.6 billion. A significant share of those projects is linked to the development of transport corridors and deeper economic integration among participating countries. The EDB also states that its activities are guided by the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals and ESG principles.

Trade

EDB: Central Asian Trade Has Doubled in Five Years

Mutual trade between Central Asian countries reached $12.3 billion in 2025, nearly doubling compared to 2020, according to analysts at the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB). The figure underlines how Central Asia is increasingly emerging as a more interconnected regional market after years of relatively limited internal trade links following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Kazakhstan remains the largest participant in regional trade, accounting for 54% of all intraregional exports, valued at $6.6 billion. The country's key export commodities to the region include grain products (18%), ferrous metals (13%), crude oil and petroleum products (8%), sunflower oil (7%), and beverages (3%). The primary destination for these exports is Uzbekistan, while Kyrgyzstan recorded the fastest growth in imports from Kazakhstan, with volumes nearly tripling to $1.7 billion. Uzbekistan ranks second, accounting for 26% of regional exports, worth $3.2 billion. The largest increase in Uzbek exports was recorded in trade with Kazakhstan, where shipments grew 2.1 times. Uzbekistan’s main export products include motor vehicles and auto parts (14%), fruit and vegetables (11%), plastic products (5%), fertilizers (4%), and clothing (3%). Between them, the two largest Central Asian economies represent nearly $10 billion of exports to their neighbours, representing almost 80% of regional trade. Turkmenistan's share of exports – primarily natural gas – rose to 11%, while Kyrgyzstan's $0.9 billion of exports (half of which was unprocessed precious metals and coal) represented 7%. Tajikistan was the smallest contributor, accounting for just 3% of intraregional exports – principally zinc, lead and copper. According to EDB analysts, the rapid expansion of trade has been driven by strengthening bilateral economic cooperation among Central Asian states and efforts to simplify trade procedures. The bank said the pace of growth demonstrates that Central Asia is gradually emerging as an increasingly integrated regional market with strengthening internal economic ties. That said, analysts stressed that the current level of trade still represents only a fraction of the region’s broader economic potential. Further reductions in trade barriers, improved transport connectivity, and deeper industrial cooperation could significantly accelerate intraregional trade turnover, the report said. EDB analysts estimate that trade between Central Asian countries could increase by an additional $4 billion by 2029.

Economic Growth

Why Strong Economic Growth in Central Asia Masks Underlying Risks

Central Asian countries are significantly outperforming the global average in GDP growth, largely due to differing economic models across the region. However, rapid expansion does not remove deep structural vulnerabilities. As early as March, data showed that the combined economies of Central Asian countries grew by nearly 7% in 2025 compared to the previous year. The World Bank estimates regional growth at 6.2%, while the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) places it at 6.6%. These calculations include Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan; Turkmenistan is excluded due to limited statistical transparency. By comparison, growth rates in advanced economies are much lower. The EDB expects around 1.6% growth in the U.S. and approximately 1.1% in the eurozone in 2026, while China’s economy is projected to expand by about 4.6%. Nevertheless, experts note that the region’s economic outlook remains complicated by high inflation, income inequality, and continued dependence on external factors. Investment activity and domestic demand have been the key drivers of growth, according to the EDB. Kazakhstan recorded its highest growth in 13 years (6.5%), with industry leading the expansion: mining grew by 9.4% and manufacturing by 6.4%. In 2026, the non-resource sector is expected to play a greater role. Kyrgyzstan has led the region in GDP growth for the third consecutive year: GDP grew by 11.1% in 2025 and by 9% in January 2026. In Uzbekistan, GDP increased by 7.7% in 2025 (up from 6.7% a year earlier), supported by investment, trade, services, and construction. Tajikistan’s GDP rose by 8.4% in 2025, matching the previous year’s performance. Growth continues to be driven by expanding industrial production and strong domestic demand. Early 2026 data suggest this momentum is holding. Uzbekistan’s Record In April, the World Bank highlighted Uzbekistan’s resilience to external challenges and strong growth dynamics. According to its updated report, the country’s 2025 GDP growth was revised upward by 1.5 percentage points to 7.7%. The outlook is 6.4% for 2026 and 6.7% for 2027. Key drivers include high global gold prices, investment inflows, expanded lending, and ongoing structural reforms. Rising household incomes have also played an important role, supported by remittances, which increased by 37% last year to reach $18.9 billion. By the end of 2025, Uzbekistan ranked among the fastest-growing economies in developing countries in Europe and Central Asia, alongside Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. The region as a whole is experiencing its highest growth rates in 14 years. At the same time, analysts point to persistent structural constraints, including a large public sector and the dominance of state-owned enterprises, which hinder private sector development. External risks, including geopolitical instability and potential disruptions in energy and fertilizer supplies, remain significant. In 2025, Uzbekistan’s GDP exceeded €133 billion, compared to approximately €56 billion nine years earlier. Over the same period, GDP per capita rose from about €1,750 to around €3,220, nearly doubling average income levels. Investment in fixed capital increased by more than 15% year-on-year in 2025, while export value grew by over 33%. Persistently high global gold prices played a major role: export...

Demographics

Central Asia’s Population Could Reach 96 Million by 2040, Raising Infrastructure Pressures

Central Asia’s population could grow to 96 million by 2040, a trend expected to stimulate economic expansion while placing significant strain on infrastructure, energy systems, and water resources across the region, according to Russia’s state news agency TASS. In an interview with TASS, Nikolai Podguzov, Chairman of the Management Board of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), said demographic growth would be one of the defining factors shaping Central Asia’s long-term development. “By 2040, according to our estimates, the population of Central Asia may reach 96 million. This should become a driver of economic growth, but at the same time such numbers will create enormous pressure on infrastructure,” he said. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Central Asia’s population exceeded 84 million in 2025, continuing a rapid upward trend after surpassing 80 million in 2024. Projections indicate that the population could exceed 100 million by 2050, underscoring the scale of demographic and economic transformation facing the region in the coming decades. Podguzov added that the region would require significant progress in energy efficiency, modern transport systems, and water management to ensure sustainable development. He described Central Asia as one of the regions of the world most vulnerable to climate change. According to EDB forecasts, water shortages are expected to intensify, with an annual deficit potentially reaching between 5 and 12 cubic kilometers by 2028. A substantial portion of water resources is already lost due to outdated irrigation and distribution systems. Podguzov said the bank is financing projects to modernize irrigation networks, introduce water-saving technologies, and implement digital water accounting mechanisms across the region. To address these challenges, the EDB has proposed a Eurasian Transport Framework, a network of transport corridors aimed at lowering logistics costs and accelerating trade flows. While existing routes predominantly run east to west, Podguzov emphasized the growing importance of north-south connections, including the potential Trans-Afghan corridor, which could provide access to markets in South Asia and the Persian Gulf. The bank projects that the combined economies of Central Asia’s five countries will reach approximately $600 billion in 2026, positioning the region among the fastest-growing globally. However, Podguzov stressed that demographic expansion, transport development, and water security are closely interconnected challenges that require coordinated policy responses.