Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) - The Times Of Central Asia

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Investments

Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan Emerge as Top Investment Destinations in Eurasian Region

A new report from the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) highlights a significant shift in investment flows within the Eurasian region, with Central Asia, particularly Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, emerging as the primary recipients of foreign direct investment (FDI). Titled Investment Cooperation in the Eurasian Region Based on EDB Monitoring of Mutual Investments, the report provides a detailed analysis of mutual FDI trends across former Soviet republics (excluding the Baltic states) and Mongolia. Despite a global downturn in FDI, investment activity across the Eurasian region continues to grow. As of the first half of 2025, mutual FDI between member countries reached a record $48.4 billion, with private businesses driving the majority of the growth. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan Take the Lead Kazakhstan has become a central player in regional investment. The country’s outbound investments total $3.25 billion, while inbound investments stand at $9.4 billion, accounting for 19.5% of all mutual FDI in the region. Notably, Kazakhstan’s investment in neighboring Uzbekistan rose by 60% over the past 18 months, driven primarily by construction projects. Uzbekistan is now the largest recipient of FDI in the Eurasian region, attracting over $10.7 billion in inbound investment, 22.3% of the regional total. The country also doubled its outbound investment in 2025 compared with the previous year, reaching $396 million. Uzbek companies invested heavily in manufacturing, which made up 85% of their foreign investment activity. Russia remains Uzbekistan’s largest investor, accounting for 90% of the total. Intra-Regional Investment on the Rise Intra-regional investment in Central Asia reached $1.3 billion in the first half of 2025, a 42% increase compared to 2023 and nearly triple the volume recorded in 2016. Kazakhstan remains the largest regional capital exporter, while Uzbekistan continues to lead as the main recipient. Roughly 80% of these intra-regional investments are concentrated in the construction, manufacturing, and financial sectors. Other Central Asian Economies Also Attract Investment Kyrgyzstan recorded $2.4 billion in incoming FDI, up 21% from 2023. The increase was largely driven by investments in manufacturing and energy. Tajikistan also saw modest growth, with mutual FDI from Eurasian countries reaching $530 million by mid-2025, up 3% compared to 2023. Russian investment continues to dominate, comprising 93% of the total and focusing on energy, telecommunications, and financial services.

Macroeconomic review

EDB Forecasts Strong Economic Growth in 2026 for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan

On December 18, the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) published its Macroeconomic Outlook for 2026-2028, reviewing recent economic developments and offering projections for its seven member states: Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. According to the report, aggregate GDP growth across the EDB region is forecast to reach 2.3% in 2026. Kyrgyzstan (9.3%), Tajikistan (8.1%), Uzbekistan (6.8%), and Kazakhstan (5.5%) are expected to remain the region’s fastest-growing economies. After two years of rapid expansion, the region’s GDP growth is set to moderate to 1.9% in 2025, down from 4.5% in 2024, mainly due to a slowdown in Russia’s economy. Although lower oil prices are expected to reduce export revenues for energy exporters such as Kazakhstan and Russia, the impact on overall growth will be limited. Meanwhile, net oil importers, including Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, will benefit from improved terms of trade and reduced inflationary pressure. High global gold prices will support foreign exchange earnings for key regional exporters, including Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. The report also notes a gradual decline in the U.S. dollar’s share in central bank reserves across the region, though its role in international settlements remains stable. Kazakhstan Kazakhstan’s economy is projected to grow by 5.5% in 2026, supported by the implementation of the National Infrastructure Plan and the state program “Order for Investment,” which are expected to cushion the effects of lower oil prices. Growth in non-commodity exports will also play a stabilizing role. Inflation is forecast to decline to 9.7% by the end of 2026, after peaking early in the year due to a value-added tax (VAT) increase. The average tenge exchange rate is expected to be KZT 535 per U.S. dollar, underpinned by a high base interest rate and rising export revenues. Kyrgyzstan Kyrgyzstan is forecast to lead the region in GDP growth at 9.3% in 2026, driven by higher investment in transport, energy, water infrastructure, and housing construction. Inflation is expected to ease to 8.3%, although further declines will be constrained by higher tariffs and excise taxes. The average exchange rate is projected at KGS 89.2 per U.S. dollar, supported by robust remittance inflows and high global gold prices, gold being the country’s main export commodity. Tajikistan Tajikistan is projected to maintain high GDP growth of 8.1% in 2026, fueled by capacity expansion in the energy and manufacturing sectors, along with rising prices for gold and non-ferrous metals. Inflation is expected to reach 4.5% by year-end. The somoni is expected to remain stable, with an average exchange rate of TJS 9.8 per U.S. dollar, supported by growth in exports and remittances. Uzbekistan Uzbekistan’s economy is forecast to expand by 6.8% in 2026, sustained by strong investment activity and favorable gold prices. Inflation is projected to decline to 6.7%, helped by tight monetary policy and a stable exchange rate. The average soum exchange rate is expected to be UZS 12,800 per U.S. dollar, supported by high remittances and increased metal exports.

Investment Projects

EDB Establishes Investment Bridge Between Gulf Capital and Central Asian Projects

The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), headquartered in Almaty, has opened a representative office in Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM), the United Arab Emirates’ international financial center, marking a strategic move to connect Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) investors with high-potential projects across Central Asia. According to the Bank, the new platform will offer GCC investors structured investment opportunities backed by EDB analytics, regional expertise, and strong ties with the governments of its member states, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Through this initiative, investors will gain access to infrastructure and sustainable development projects with optimized risk-return profiles. At the launch ceremony, EDB Management Board Chairman Nikolai Podguzov underscored the strategic significance of the move. “We are creating an ‘investment highway’ between Gulf capital and opportunities in Central Asia. Our new office in Abu Dhabi reinforces our role as a regional bridge, combining local knowledge with tailored financial instruments. Investors gain access to proven projects with favorable risk-return dynamics, while Central Asian economies unlock new development funding.” A centerpiece of the new platform is a specialized credit fund dedicated to financing infrastructure development in Central Asia. Registered under ADGM jurisdiction, the fund will focus on debt financing for EDB’s infrastructure portfolio. The Bank highlighted ADGM’s regulatory advantages, noting that the fund will offer Middle Eastern and global investors a secure and efficient entry point into the region’s development landscape. EDB will serve as both a structuring partner and co-investor, providing access to a diversified project pipeline. Priority Sectors for Investment Transport and Logistics: The development of the North-South Corridor could boost transit volumes through Central Asia by up to 40%, significantly reducing shipping distances between the Gulf and key Eurasian markets. Water Sector and Agribusiness: The irrigation equipment market in Central Asia is valued at approximately $426 million annually, while the broader water supply sector is worth up to $2 billion. Renewable Energy: The sector continues to attract major players such as the UAE’s Masdar, which has established a growing footprint across Central Asia. Strengthening Gulf-Central Asia Economic Ties In recent years, the Gulf states have become major trading partners and investors in Central Asia. According to EDB data, trade between the Gulf and Central Asia reached $3.3 billion in 2024, a 4.2-fold increase since 2020. Imports from the Gulf made up 80% of the total trade turnover. Top Central Asian trading partners with the Gulf in 2024 were: Turkmenistan - $2 billion (61%) Uzbekistan - $740 million (23%) Kazakhstan - $302 million (9%) The highest trade growth rates were recorded in: Turkmenistan - up 9.9 times Kyrgyzstan - up 9.5 times Uzbekistan - up 8.1 times The UAE accounted for 97% of all Gulf-Central Asia trade. For Turkmenistan, Gulf trade represented around 10% of total foreign commerce, while Kyrgyzstan’s share stood at approximately 1%, with even lower figures across other regional states. The EDB projects continued growth in trade, citing an unrealized potential of $4.9 billion, including $4.4 billion in potential Gulf exports (motor vehicles, electronics, jewelry) and $500...

Economic Growth

Kyrgyzstan Reports Strong Economic Growth and Budget Surplus

Kyrgyzstan's consolidated budget for 2025 is expected to exceed $12.5 billion, marking the first time it will cross the historic threshold of one trillion soms. The announcement was made by Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers Adylbek Kasymaliev during a government meeting on December 8. Kasymaliev stated that while the 2025 state budget was initially approved at the equivalent of $8 billion, it had expanded by $4.3 billion by year-end, leaving the country with a budget surplus of more than $110 million. According to the Statistics Department of the Eurasian Economic Commission, Kyrgyzstan was the only member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) to post a budget surplus in the first nine months of 2025. The surplus totaled $1 billion, with revenues reaching $4.9 billion and expenditures at $3.9 billion. By comparison, the surplus in the same period of 2024 was $0.5 billion. Citing International Monetary Fund data, Kasymaliev noted that Kyrgyzstan ranked among the top three countries globally in terms of real GDP growth in 2024. The national economy grew by 10% in the first ten months of 2025, with all major sectors showing expansion. The construction sector led with a remarkable 42.8% growth rate. GDP per capita for 2025, initially projected at $2,616, is now expected to reach $2,770 by the end of the year. Kyrgyzstan’s international reserves also saw a significant increase. As of the end of October 2025, reserves stood at $7.955 billion, up by $3.02 billion compared to October 2024, according to the National Bank. The National Statistics Committee earlier reported that Kyrgyzstan’s GDP grew by 11.5% in 2024. Services accounted for the largest share of GDP at 52.3%, followed by goods-producing industries at 33.3%, industry at 17%, construction at 7.7%, and agriculture at 8.6%. The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) forecasts record-high economic growth for Kyrgyzstan in 2025, driven by robust investment activity. From January to October, fixed capital investment rose by 18.9%, with state budget funds and company resources accounting for 31% and 23% of that total, respectively.

Irrigation

Kazakhstan to Modernize Irrigation Sector with $5.3 Million EDB Grant

Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), and the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) have launched a new joint initiative aimed at modernizing the country’s irrigation sector. Titled “Developing a Business Ecosystem for Sustainable Irrigation in Kazakhstan,” the project is supported by a $5.3 million grant from the EDB and implemented in partnership with UNDP. The agreement was signed by Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation Nurzhan Nurzhigitov, UNDP Resident Representative Katarzyna Wawiernia, and EDB Deputy Chairman Ruslan Dalenov. Boosting Climate Resilience and Water Efficiency The multi-year initiative focuses on strengthening Kazakhstan’s resilience to climate change by improving irrigation management. Key components include establishing a National Water Resources Information System, deploying forecasting and water distribution tools, creating regional centers for modern irrigation, training specialists, and promoting water-saving technologies nationwide. Nurzhigitov emphasized that the project aligns with Kazakhstan’s broader strategic goals for climate adaptation and water sector reform. “For us, participation in this project means achieving strategic goals to modernize the water sector and increase resilience to climate change. We are actively working to attract investment in the water sector, but all strategic decisions are and will be made exclusively in Kazakhstan. Transferring water resources or facilities to foreign countries has never been considered. Our goal is to modernize the water sector to protect the interests of our citizens and ensure security and sustainable development,” he stated. Expanding Water-Saving Irrigation Kazakhstan has steadily increased the use of water-efficient irrigation technologies such as drip and sprinkler systems to reduce agricultural water consumption. Since 2024, the government has raised subsidies for farmers adopting these technologies. Reimbursement rates for drilling underground water wells and installing modern systems have increased from 50% to 80%. As a result, the area equipped with water-saving irrigation expanded from 312,200 hectares in 2023 to 580,000 hectares in 2025, representing 30% of the country’s total irrigated farmland. By 2030, the government aims to extend modern irrigation systems to 1.3 million hectares, covering 70% of all irrigated land in Kazakhstan.

EDB and Tajikistan Expand Cooperation in AI and Digital Technologies

Tajikistan is accelerating the digitalization of its economy through new partnerships aimed at advancing AI and related technologies. The country’s Ministry of Industry and New Technologies has signed a memorandum of cooperation with the Eurasian Development Bank’s Digital Initiatives Fund (EDB DIF), focusing on AI and digital transformation. The agreement was formalized in Dushanbe during the AI Conf 2025 international conference. It outlines joint innovation projects, knowledge exchange, and capacity building in the field of AI. Key areas of cooperation include integrating AI into public administration, developing a multimodal large language model (LLM), and advancing initiatives in energy efficiency and cybersecurity. “An Artificial Intelligence Council has been established under the ministry to supervise major national projects,” said Dauren Rakhimzhanov, Managing Director of the EDB's Digital Initiatives Directorate. “Under the new memorandum, we will jointly develop AI technologies, exchange expertise, and expand the portfolio of digital projects in the Republic of Tajikistan.” The agreement also grants Tajikistan access to the EDB DIF’s financial and technical resources, including grant programs designed to support digital solutions with cross-border integration potential and technology sharing among member states. One of the first joint projects is the creation of the “Electronic Map of Dushanbe,” a digital platform that will underpin broader smart city development. The EDB signed a grant financing agreement for this project with the state unitary enterprise “Smart City” on September 24, 2025. Alexander Petrov, Director of the EDB Digital Initiatives Directorate, emphasized the importance of international collaboration in developing AI. “Strengthening cooperation in AI is essential, not only among EDB member states but also with global institutions,” Petrov said. “These projects facilitate knowledge exchange and contribute to building a resilient digital ecosystem.” According to Petrov, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and other countries in the region have already shown interest in joining similar initiatives. He noted that such programs represent a step toward deeper economic integration across the Eurasian region.