Fuel Prices Surge in Tajikistan Amid Middle East Conflict

Fuel prices at gas stations in Dushanbe have risen sharply since early March, increasing on average by 8-9%. The increase has been driven by domestic factors as well as adverse developments in the global energy market. The most widely used AI-92 gasoline has risen in price from $1.05 to $1.13 per liter. Diesel has followed a similar trend, increasing from $1.14 to $1.24 per liter. Prices for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) have risen more modestly, by about 6%, to $0.62 per liter. Prices also vary by location, with drivers noting that fuel in central Dushanbe is traditionally more expensive than in outlying areas. Suppliers attribute the increases to higher prices from producers, but the situation largely depends on external supply chains. Russia remains the primary source of petroleum products for Tajikistan. In 2025, the country imported more than 1.2 million tonnes of fuel and LPG from Russia, accounting for over 70% of total imports. Supplies also come from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan, though their share is significantly smaller. According to official statistics, Tajikistan imported more than 325,000 metric tons of petroleum products in the first quarter of this year, valued at over $251 million, or approximately $772 per metric ton. Compared with the same period last year, import volumes increased by 11.4%, while their total value rose by 8.6%. Experts say external factors are the main driver of rising prices. They point to international media reports that the conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran has triggered a chain reaction in the fuel market, affecting the supply chain from crude oil to refining and retail prices. A key factor has been disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil supplies pass. At the same time, price trends have varied significantly across countries. Al Jazeera reported that fuel prices rose by nearly 70% in Cambodia, 50% in Vietnam, 35% in Nigeria, 33% in Laos, and 28% in Canada. In Central Asia, however, price increases have been more moderate, ranging from 2% to 5% in March and April. In Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, prices have remained largely stable, which analysts attribute to pricing policies by Russian producers and the availability of domestic fuel supplies.

Central Asia Avoids Fuel Shock as Global Pressures Build

Central Asia has so far avoided the immediate fuel shocks spreading across much of the world following the U.S. and Israel’s war with Iran. There are no lines at gas stations, no visible shortages, and no signs of panic buying. But that stability sits within a rapidly tightening global market, where disruptions in Asia and policy responses in Europe are reshaping fuel flows in ways the region will struggle to avoid. Across Southeast Asia, governments are already taking precautionary steps. Some state agencies and private firms are shifting parts of their workforce to remote work to reduce fuel consumption and prepare for potential price spikes and logistics disruptions, while Thailand is preparing contingency measures, including possible fuel rationing. China, one of Asia’s largest suppliers of refined fuels, has moved to restrict exports of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in an effort to prevent domestic shortages linked to the war. The move is expected to tighten supplies across Asia, especially for countries that rely on Chinese fuel imports. China supplied about one-third of Australia’s jet fuel last year, highlighting the wider regional impact, and roughly half of the Philippines’ and Bangladesh’s in 2024. Vietnam has already warned airlines to prepare for flight reductions in April due to the risk of shortages caused by these export restrictions. Indonesia is also imposing limits on fuel sales.  Fuel-related pressures have begun to emerge in Europe as well. Poland has introduced tax measures aimed at reducing fuel prices, with the government saying this will lower prices for consumers. Slovenia, meanwhile, has introduced significant restrictions on fuel consumption. Under new rules, private motorists are limited to purchasing a maximum of 50 liters per day, while businesses and farmers may purchase up to 200 liters daily. The combined effect of war-driven energy shocks and renewed tariff barriers is raising global costs and adding pressure across trade, transport, and inflation. Against this backdrop, Central Asia’s apparent stability is misleading. It is highly unlikely that import-dependent states such as Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan will be as well protected as Kazakhstan, which may benefit in the short term from higher crude prices. Starting April 1, Russia is banning gasoline exports in an effort to stabilize its own domestic market. Russia is a key fuel supplier to Central Asia. However, according to assurances from the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation, the temporary export ban will not affect supplies to Uzbekistan. Deliveries under intergovernmental agreements are expected to continue, ensuring that at least part of the region’s supply remains uninterrupted. In Kyrgyzstan, despite recent developments, fuel prices and supplies remain relatively stable. The government is considering lowering taxes or temporarily waiving excise duties for fuel importers should the crisis continue. Information from Turkmenistan is difficult to verify independently. Despite reports of fuel shortages at gas stations last year, official media are now indicating a significant increase in domestic gasoline production. The production plan for January-February 2026 was reportedly fulfilled at 122.7%, according to Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers Guvancha...