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Kyrgyzstan Reports Price Increases for Consumer Goods

According to the National Statistical Committee of Kyrgyzstan, prices for meat, alcoholic beverages, and tobacco products have risen significantly. The largest price increases were observed in Bishkek and the Issyk-Kul region. “Prices for alcoholic beverages and tobacco products, food products, and tariffs for services rendered to the population have increased. At the same time, prices for food products and non-alcoholic beverages decreased,” Deputy Chairman of the Statistical Committee Baktybek Shokenov told a press conference in Bishkek. He said prices fell for fresh fruits and vegetables, cereals, raw milk, eggs, and vegetable oil in the first eight months of 2024. On the contrary, prices for meat, fish, potatoes, salt, rice, cottage cheese, flour of the highest grade, pasteurized milk, sugar, and butter increased significantly. Kyrgyz people have recently complained about a sharp rise in meat prices. Some reports say they have risen by 100 KGS ($1.2) per kilo in six months. The main reason for the sharp rise in meat prices is increased exports; because Kyrgyz meat prices abroad are higher than domestic prices, domestic prices are also rising. Most meat products are exported to neighboring Uzbekistan. Today, a kilogram of beef costs about 650-680 KGS ($8) in the bazaar, although half a year ago, it cost 550-600 KGS ($6-6.5).

ADB: Central Asia’s Economic Growth and Decreasing Inflation in 2024

The Asian Development Bank has published its latest report, “Asian Development Outlook (ADO) July 2024: Steady Growth, Slowing Inflation,” in which it has increased its forecast for economic growth in Central Asia from 4.3% to 4.5% in 2024. In the first quarter (Q1) of 2024, the Kyrgyz Republic is expected to have grown at a rate of 8.8% thanks to robust service and construction industry output supported by both foreign and domestic investment. Other regional economies have also experienced solid economic activity. As a result of a notable increase in exports, which included gold sales, Tajikistan maintained its robust economic trajectory in Q1 2024, with an 8.2% growth rate. Net gas exports and government investment, meanwhile, are Turkmenistan’s primary sources of growth. The first quarter of 2024 also saw 6.2% growth in Uzbekistan, due to a spike in fixed capital investment. The growth prospects of Kazakhstan, however, the largest economy in the region, remain unchanged. With the main growth drivers being construction, manufacturing, and services, GDP expanded by 3.7% in Q1 2024. This year, manufacturing and construction will continue to be the primary forces behind economic expansion. Strong building growth will be supported by government assistance to victims and restoration of damaged infrastructure following the worst floods in thirty years. Mining is also anticipated to contribute significantly to Kazakhstan’s medium-term growth following the Tengiz oil field expansion project's completion in Q2 2025. The ADB has also lowered inflation forecasts for 2024 and 2025. In May 2024, the Kyrgyz Republic experienced a decrease in inflation from 11.3% to 4.6%, primarily due to fluctuations in the prices of essential commodities. Other regional economies are also experiencing a reduction in inflationary pressures. A steady exchange rate and relatively restrictive monetary policy decreased Kazakhstan's inflation rate to 9.0% from 18.5% from 2023 to January–May 2024. Inflation in Tajikistan for the first four months of 2024 was 3.8%. Inflation in Uzbekistan has also dropped from 11.4% in the previous year to 9.2% in the first five months of 2024.

IMF: Uzbekistan’s Foreign Debt to Decrease by 10% in 2029

 According to a new  report issued by the International Monetary Fund,  in recent years and against uncertainties from the pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine, Uzbekistan's rapid growth in economy is set to continue in tandem with a significant decline in poverty. Despite a slowdown in the development of trade partners and the removal of the fiscal stimulus in 2023, a strong economic growth is predicted for this year and supported in the medium term, by the completion of budgetary consolidation, ongoing structural reforms, and continuing capital inflows, demonstrates the government’s commitment to promoting market-oriented reforms to further Uzbekistan’s economic development. Challenges still remain, however, in the large state footprint in the economy and last year’s expansionary fiscal policy, which the authorities determined to persevere in their reform efforts, must address to advance sustainable and inclusive growth. The monetary policy which has reduced inflation must continue until it reaches the Central Bank of Uzbekistan's target. Sustaining a high real policy rate, tight fiscal and macro-prudential policies, and supportive structural reforms would gradually reduce inflation to the target by the end of 2027 and the CBU should stand ready to increase its policy rate if the energy price reform leads to broader price pressures and raises inflation expectations. The government should continue efforts to accelerate the restructuring and privatization of state enterprises, eliminate preferences for state-owned enterprises and unbundle large enterprises to increase competition and improve the business environment. The authorities are accelerating efforts for WTO accession and undertaking measures to bolster external competitiveness and export diversification; opening markets and reducing monopolies would boost growth and help reduce inflation. According to the IMF’s analysis, it will reach 60.1% of GDP at the end of 2024, and the country's total external debt is expected to decrease to 51% of GDP by 2029. Similarly, from 33% of GDP at the end of 2024, government-guaranteed external debt is likely to decline to 27% by 2029. Several factors contribute to these positive statistics. The government of Uzbekistan aims to limit the budget deficit to 3% of GDP by introducing annual limits on the budget deficit and new debts. In addition, the 2023 public debt law limits state-guaranteed debt to 60% of GDP, with proposals for debt reduction if it reaches 50%. As stated in the report, the authorities emphasized their commitment to maintaining a moderate level of debt and noted that the government’s goal of reducing and maintaining the medium-term fiscal deficit at 3% of GDP would send purchasing power parity and external borrowing as a share of GDP downwards

Uzbekistan’s Consumer Confidence Index Falls to Record Low

Based on Freedom Finance's research, Spot has reported that the consumer confidence index in Uzbekistan fell to a record low in May. The indicator reached 126.8 points in May, decreasing by 3.4 points during the month. The decline was recorded in all five sub-indices, with the most substantial decline in economic dynamics in the last year. The assessment of changes in the economic situation decreased by 117.5 points (-7.8). In March, 58% of Uzbeks had noted that the financial crisis had improved in the last twelve months; but in April, this figure decreased to 53.5%, and in May, to 48%. Just a third of respondents living in Tashkent assessed the economic dynamics positively. In Namangan, the percentage of positive responses decreased from 58.3% to 46.1%, while in five other areas it decreased by between 7 and 9%. The sub-index of changes in citizens' financial situation also decreased by 128.4 points (-2.9). Inflation is increasing in Uzbekistan. During the past year, prices have increased significantly—by 48.5% - breaking the record set in October of last year. The share of citizens who noted increased housing and communal services tariffs rose from 21.4% to 44.1% over two months. Conversely, only 13.2% of participants expect inflation to accelerate next month, and 28% over the course of the year. Expectations of devaluation also decreased: 63.4% expected a substantial weakening of the som against the dollar during the year, and 43.5% in the monthly range. Freedom Finance analyst Daniyor Orazboev told Spot that the decline in consumer confidence was caused by a “sharp acceleration of inflation due to administrative decisions in Uzbekistan.”

EBRD predicts growth of Kazakhstan economy in 2017

ASTANA (TCA) — The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) on November 7 said it is expecting the economy of Kazakhstan to grow by 3.8 per cent in 2017 and by 3.5 per cent the following year. The increased crude oil production, favourable oil prices, a recovery in real incomes growth as well as stronger activity in construction, agriculture and transportation sectors have all contributed to strong GDP growth. Continue reading

Government reviews Kazakhstan’s development plan until 2022

ASTANA (TCA) — The Government of Kazakhstan on August 29 reviewed the forecast and main priorities of the country’s social and economic development for the period 2018-2022, the official website of the Prime Minister of Kazakhstan reports. Continue reading