Infrastructure Development - The Times Of Central Asia

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Middle Powers

Which Central Asian States Qualify as Middle Powers in 2025?

As global power shifts toward multipolarity, Central Asia’s states are emerging as active regional players. This article assesses which of the five republics—Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan—qualify as middle powers in 2025, based on economic strength, diplomatic reach, strategic capacity, and governance. Kazakhstan stands as the region’s only consolidated middle power, balancing fiscal stability, institutional reform, and multi-vector diplomacy. Uzbekistan is a rising aspirant, propelled by reforms but still reliant on external financing and centralized authority. The remaining states remain constrained by dependence and limited institutional depth. Together, they reflect a region increasingly capable of shaping, rather than merely absorbing, global and regional change. A comparative analysis of five Central Asian republics shows how far each has advanced toward this status. 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This article assesses which of the five republics—Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan—qualify as middle powers in 2025, based on economic strength, diplomatic reach, strategic capacity, and governance. Kazakhstan stands as the region’s only consolidated middle power, balancing fiscal stability, institutional reform, and multi-vector diplomacy. Uzbekistan is a rising aspirant, propelled by reforms but still reliant on external financing and centralized authority. The remaining states remain constrained by dependence and limited institutional depth. Together, they reflect a region increasingly capable of shaping, rather than merely absorbing, global and regional change. A comparative analysis of five Central Asian republics shows how far each has advanced toward this status. Economic Power Economic autonomy is a defining attribute of middle-power capability, enabling states to project influence, sustain policy independence, and finance external engagement. In Central Asia, dependence on Official Development Assistance (ODA) and remittances often reflects constrained fiscal capacity and limited domestic capital formation, while diversified, resilient economies underpin strategic autonomy. Key indicators—GDP per capita, credit ratings, debt sustainability, and export diversification—illuminate the region’s economic hierarchy. Kazakhstan stands as Central Asia’s only consolidated economic middle power. Resource-backed growth, a prudent fiscal regime, and a sovereign wealth fund (the National Fund of Kazakhstan) have anchored macroeconomic stability. With a “BBB” credit rating or equivalent from major agencies, Kazakhstan demonstrates sound debt management and policy credibility. Ongoing diversification efforts under the new economic policies—from renewables to financial modernization—aim to reduce hydrocarbon dependence and deepen integration into global supply chains. Its role as a trans-Caspian logistics hub enhances both strategic and commercial influence. Uzbekistan, by contrast, is an emerging frontier market propelled by post-2017 reforms in currency liberalization, taxation, and state-enterprise restructuring. Rapid GDP growth and expanding private-sector activity mark its trajectory toward fiscal autonomy, though continued ODA inflows averaging around $1.1 billion to 1.3 billion annually, primarily from the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the World Bank, and bilateral partners such as Japan, the United States, and the European Union, highlight its residual dependence on external concessional financing. To achieve genuine middle power status, Uzbekistan must roughly double its real economic output over the next decade, a scale of growth aligned with the shift...

Infrastructure Development

Manas Rising: Jalal-Abad Renaming Crowns Central Position in Kyrgyz Development Plans

On September 18, the President of Kyrgyzstan, Sadyr Japarov, signed into law the renaming of the country’s third-largest city, Jalal-Abad. From September 28, it will be known as Manas. This decision marks an escalation in the attention lavished on the city over the past half-decade, with a surge of infrastructure and construction projects. Indeed, rumors abound that the renaming may be just the beginning, perhaps laying the groundwork to shift the capital south. Rapid Development Jalal-Abad lies nestled in the Fergana Valley in Kyrgyzstan’s south, not far from the Uzbek border. Locals describe it as a politically active city and region, one that has nurtured many ambitious southern politicians. These include former President Kurmanbek Bakiev, perennial oppositionist Omurbek Tekebayev, now ambassador to Germany, and Kamchybek Tashiyev, the powerful head of the security services, widely known by their Russian acronym, the GKNB. It is the influence of Tashiyev that has led many to suspect Jalal-Abad has been the focus of special attention. Tashiyev hails from the village of Barpy, nearby in the Jalal-Abad region. In much the same way that Tajikistan’s president Emomali Rahmon has beautified his home village of Danghara, making it a provincial capital, and Uzbekistan’s Shavkat Mirziyoyev has steered investment such as the new BYD factory to his home region of Jizzakh, so too do Kyrgyz leaders seek to channel resources to their native provinces. “One thing you notice immediately is the amount of construction here,” a local resident, Saeed, told The Times of Central Asia. “You can see as you travel around the city, so much land is being prepared for new buildings.” In 2023, the city was singled out by President Sadyr Japarov as Kyrgyzstan’s future “second economic hub”. Two billion som ($22.9 million) were allocated to improve its infrastructure. One of the first steps was demolishing a large prison in the city center to make way for redevelopment. Other projects underway include a new regional airport, being built by China State Construction Engineering Corporation, around 20 kilometers from the city center. There has been an emphasis on public services, including a recently opened children’s hospital and a planned seven-storey, 280-bed medical facility. But Saeed is more excited about cultural projects. “We’ve also got a new Barcelona football academy here,” he said. “Even Bishkek doesn't have a Barcelona academy!” The city is also set to be one of the main hubs of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, which will bring goods directly from China’s Xinjiang Province without passing through Kazakhstan. Another local commentator, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that the Chinese presence in the city has also grown markedly in recent years. “It’s not only construction workers. Before, we didn't have so many Chinese restaurants. Now, Jalal-Abad has genuinely popular Chinese restaurants. In the past, the Kyrgyz generally despised Chinese cuisine; it was too foreign. But nowadays, you see government workers and other businessmen visiting these restaurants alongside the Chinese and trying their food.” The grandest project of all has been the new city administration building....

Bilateral Cooperation

Cholpon-Ata to Host ‘Day of German Economy in Kyrgyzstan’

On August 26, Kyrgyzstan will host one of its most prominent international business events of the year, the Day of German Economy in Kyrgyzstan, alongside the 4th meeting of the Kyrgyz-German Business Council. The events are organized by the National Investment Agency under the President of the Kyrgyz Republic. According to the agency, the forum will take place at two venues in the resort city of Cholpon-Ata: the Rukh Ordo Cultural Center and the No. 2 State Residence of the President of the Kyrgyz Republic. The event is expected to bring together high-level participants, including government officials, business leaders, industry associations, and investors from both Germany and Kyrgyzstan. Welcoming remarks will be delivered by Adylbek Kasymaliyev, Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers of Kyrgyzstan, and Professor Reinhold Krämmel, Honorary Consul of Kyrgyzstan in Munich and Deputy Co-Chairman of the Kyrgyz-German Business Council. The forum will feature two thematic panel sessions: "Energy Projects for German-Kyrgyz Economic Cooperation" - focusing on opportunities in green energy and infrastructure development. "Export Potential and Logistics in the Transition Period: Opportunities of the Middle Corridor" - examining evolving trade routes and modern logistical challenges. In addition, Kasymaliyev will attend the meeting of the Kyrgyz-German Business Council. Discussions will center on the theme: “Kyrgyz-German Trade, Economic and Investment Cooperation: Finance as an Integral Part of the Partnership.” The primary aim of the event is to deepen economic dialogue, enhance trade and investment relations, and strengthen the strategic partnership between Kyrgyzstan and Germany.

Construction

Kyrgyzstan Tops EAEU in Construction Growth Despite Labor Woes

Kyrgyzstan recorded the highest growth in construction activity among member states of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) during the first half of 2025, according to data published by the Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC). Infrastructure Boom Drives Expansion Between January and May 2025, construction volumes in Kyrgyzstan nearly doubled compared to the same period in 2024. Last year, the sector had already grown by 38% year-on-year. Armenia followed with a growth rate of 29%, while Kazakhstan, Belarus, and Russia posted more modest increases of 15.4%, 12.3%, and 5.5% respectively. Across the EAEU, construction grew by an average of 6.8%. The primary drivers of Kyrgyzstan’s construction boom include extensive state and private investment in housing, infrastructure, and industrial development. The government has focused on building hydroelectric power plants, residential complexes, and administrative buildings. Notably, the state mortgage program offers housing loans at 4-8% interest rates, well below market levels. From January to April 2025, the Cabinet of Ministers allocated nearly $500 million toward housing projects, supplemented by $77 million in equity financing. To help stabilize construction costs, the government also classified cement as a socially significant good, subject to price controls. According to The Times of Central Asia, investment in housing, infrastructure, and social facilities rose by 62% year-on-year during the first four months of 2025, reaching approximately $800 million, the highest figure in recent years. The construction sector contributed an estimated 3% to Kyrgyzstan’s GDP growth in the first half of the year. Quality and Labor Concerns Persist Despite these achievements, concerns are growing over construction quality and labor shortages. Residents in major cities report poorly planned developments that lack supporting infrastructure, including roads and essential utilities such as water and electricity. Speaking to The Times of Central Asia, construction auditor Bakhtiar Kasymaliyev highlighted critical challenges in project execution. “We have serious problems with quality and professionalism,” he said. “There is a shortage of skilled concrete workers and bricklayers. They are in high demand. As a temporary solution, companies are bringing in labor from Pakistan, India, and Egypt, but most of them are unskilled. To improve quality, we need to attract qualified specialists from abroad.” According to Kasymaliyev, the labor shortage is already impacting project timelines and structural integrity, raising red flags amid the sector’s rapid expansion.

China

Opinion – The Quiet Competition: How the U.S. Is Losing Ground to China in Central Asia

Over the past decade, China has steadily expanded its presence in Central Asia, not through military force, but by building roads, trade corridors, and digital infrastructure. As the United States scaled back its regional footprint following its withdrawal from Afghanistan, Beijing moved quickly to fill the void. Today, China has positioned itself as the region's dominant external power, while the U.S. risks being left on the sidelines. At the heart of China’s strategy is the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which has provided over $1 trillion into infrastructure projects globally since its launch in 2013. This includes $704 billion in construction contracts and $470 billion in non-financial investments. In 2024 alone, BRI engagement reached $121.8 billion – $70.7 billion in construction and $51 billion in investments – and trade between China and the countries of Central Asia hit a record $95 billion, highlighting the depth of China's economic integration. This engagement has also created significant financial dependencies. Central Asian countries owe China roughly $15.7 billion, about 8% of the region's total external debt, and these loans are often opaque and carry terms that provide Beijing with outsized political leverage. Chinese firms are also laying fiber-optic networks and constructing electric vehicle corridors to link western China with its neighbors. In Tajikistan, for example, contractors are upgrading the Pamir Highway to support cross-border EV transport. Huawei and other Chinese tech giants are also expanding the region’s telecommunications infrastructure, raising serious concerns about surveillance, data sovereignty, and long-term digital dependency. China’s economic outreach is reinforced by high-level diplomacy. The China–Central Asia (C+C5) format has become the centerpiece of Beijing’s regional engagement. At the 2025 summit, leaders from across the region gathered to coordinate on connectivity, climate resilience, and trade facilitation. The regularity and substance of these summits stand in sharp contrast to the United States’ more sporadic diplomatic presence. The U.S. maintains the C5+1 platform and launched a promising Critical Minerals Dialogue in 2024. However, these initiatives have yet to match the scale or consistency of China's approach as U.S. infrastructure investment is limited, its commercial footprint is small, and diplomatic engagement is too infrequent to shift the region’s strategic trajectory. This matters. Central Asia is strategically located, resource-rich, and increasingly central to global supply chains and geopolitical competition. Kazakhstan alone supplies more than 40% of the world’s uranium. The region also serves as a testing ground for competing development models, and if the United States fails to become a more engaged and credible partner, China’s infrastructure-heavy, state-centric model may become the default. To remain competitive, Washington should recalibrate its approach in Central Asia. This includes pursuing bilateral deals that deliver real impact, such as deepening ties with Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan through targeted investment packages, trade agreements, and joint-sector initiatives. It also means securing access to critical minerals by expanding private-sector investment in mining, processing, and transport infrastructure aligned with U.S. supply chain needs. Offering digital infrastructure alternatives is equally essential; the United States must support secure, interoperable, and transparent technology networks that...

Infrastructure Development

EU and EBRD to Fund Irrigation Improvements in Kyrgyzstan

On March 17, European Commissioner for International Partnerships Jozef Síkela arrived in Kyrgyzstan, where he met with President Sadyr Japarov to discuss bilateral cooperation and sustainable development initiatives. During the meeting, Japarov emphasized the importance of strengthening trade, economic, and investment ties between Kyrgyzstan and the European Union (EU). “We highly appreciate the ongoing support of the European Union in carrying out democratic reforms and developing a stable and sustainable state in Kyrgyzstan,” Japarov stated. He also proposed expanding cooperation in areas such as green initiatives, early warning systems for natural disasters, low-carbon development, and the transition to renewable energy sources. Japarov highlighted Kyrgyzstan’s role in global environmental advocacy, recalling that the United Nations (UN) had declared 2023-2027 as the "Five Years of Action for the Development of Mountain Regions" at Kyrgyzstan’s initiative. He invited the EU to become a donor for the country’s roadmap for sustainable development in mountain regions, citing shared environmental challenges such as glacier preservation, ecosystem protection, and sustainable growth. EU and EBRD Commit to Infrastructure Development Commissioner Síkela reaffirmed the EU’s commitment to regional integration and connectivity between Central Asia and Europe, highlighting Kyrgyzstan’s renewable energy potential. “Kyrgyzstan has huge potential in the field of renewable energy, and the EU is ready to support projects that bring sustainable and long-term benefits to the region and realize this potential,” Síkela stated. Following their discussions, Japarov and Síkela oversaw the signing of a financial agreement between the Kyrgyz government, the EU, and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). The agreement launches a major irrigation improvement program in Kyrgyzstan, aimed at enhancing water management and sustainability. Financial Commitments and Infrastructure Projects A financial package of up to €37.96 million will support critical irrigation infrastructure upgrades in Kyrgyzstan’s Jalalabad and Naryn regions. This funding includes: €26.93 million in an EBRD sovereign loan €1.03 million in an EBRD grant €10 million in an EU grant The investment will finance improvements to water intakes, pumping stations, main canals, and distribution networks, with the goal of reducing water losses, cutting electricity consumption, and lowering CO₂ emissions. Additionally, the EBRD and EU will fund the reconstruction and automation of a section of the Western Great Chui Canal in northern Kyrgyzstan. A separate financial package of €23.8 million has been allocated under the EBRD’s Regional Integrated Water Resources Management Framework for Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, approved by the EBRD’s Board of Directors in 2024. This package consists of: €15.23 million in an EBRD sovereign loan €5 million in an EBRD grant €3.6 million in an EU grant These investments are expected to modernize Kyrgyzstan’s irrigation systems, enhance water resource management, and improve agricultural sustainability. The EU and EBRD’s latest financial commitments to Kyrgyzstan’s irrigation and water management infrastructure highlight growing cooperation between Europe and Central Asia. These projects aim to increase agricultural productivity, enhance climate resilience, and promote sustainable development in the region.