New Uzbekistan - The Times Of Central Asia

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Population

Uzbekistan Population Growth: 20 Years To Use a Window of Opportunity

Uzbekistan has a limited window of opportunity to turn its rapidly growing young population into a driver of long-term economic growth, according to a new study on demographic trends and human capital development in the country. The report, produced as part of a broader regional study on Central Asia, analyzes the prospects of young people up to the age of 24, as well as the impact that a range of investments in their well-being could have on national development through 2050. Approximately 60% of Uzbekistan’s population is under the age of 30. As this generation enters the workforce, the country is expected to gain the largest labor force in its history. Researchers argue that this creates the conditions for a “demographic dividend,” a period during which a high proportion of working-age citizens can accelerate economic growth and boost productivity. However, the report warns that such an outcome is far from guaranteed. Uzbekistan’s demographic opening is also a labor-market test. UNDP has estimated that around 700,000 young people enter the country’s job market each year, while warning that many graduates still lack practical, market-relevant skills. That makes education, vocational training, and job creation central to whether population growth becomes an economic advantage or a source of pressure. “Uzbekistan risks missing the opportunity for accelerated economic growth due to underdeveloped human capital,” the authors state. One indicator of the challenge is Uzbekistan’s score of 0.6 in the World Bank’s Human Capital Index. This suggests that children born in the country today are likely to realize only 60% of their potential future productivity compared with what would be possible with full access to quality education and good health outcomes. The UN has framed the issue in similar terms, saying targeted investments in early childhood, including health, nutrition, early learning, and social protection, could help close Uzbekistan’s human-capital gap and generate additional economic returns by 2050. Uzbekistan’s population is projected to grow from approximately 38 million people in 2025 to more than 40 million by 2030 and reach around 52 million by 2050. In 2024, the country was home to 11.3 million children under the age of 15, 23.9 million working-age adults, and 2.2 million people aged 65 and older. By 2050, the working-age population is expected to exceed 33 million, while the number of elderly citizens is projected to triple to more than 6 million. Researchers note that Uzbekistan is currently in what demographers describe as the “early-dividend” phase, during which fertility rates gradually decline while the share of working-age citizens continues to rise. The average number of children per woman has fallen from more than four in the early 1990s to approximately 3.45 in 2025 and is expected to decline further to 2.55 by mid-century. The report’s authors argue that the next two decades will be critical for Uzbekistan’s future economic trajectory. They recommend increased investment in education, healthcare, nutrition, child protection, social protection, water supply, sanitation infrastructure, and labor market development. According to the study, investments in human capital during the...

Uzbekistan AI adoption Trails Global Average, Microsoft Report Finds

Only 7.2% of people aged 15 to 64 in Uzbekistan used generative artificial intelligence tools during the first quarter of 2026, according to Microsoft’s latest Global AI Diffusion Report. The figure places Uzbekistan below the global average, as the share of generative AI users worldwide rose from 16.3% in the second half of 2025 to 17.8% in the first quarter of 2026. It also highlights a persistent gap in Central Asia between governments’ digital ambitions and current levels of public uptake. Among Central Asian countries, Kazakhstan recorded the region’s highest adoption rate at 15.9%, followed by Kyrgyzstan at 9.5%. Uzbekistan ranked third, ahead of Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, both at 6.1%. However, the report also showed that Uzbekistan is not standing still. Its AI user share rose from 5.7% in the first half of 2025 to 7.2% in the first quarter of 2026, while Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan were all listed among the fastest-growing economies for AI adoption since June 2025. The report identified the United Arab Emirates as the global leader in generative AI usage, with 70.1% of the working-age population using such technologies. Singapore ranked second at 63.4%, while Norway, Ireland and France also placed among the top five. Microsoft researchers said the global spread of AI technologies remains uneven because of differences in internet access, electricity reliability, digital infrastructure and levels of digital literacy. For Uzbekistan, the findings point to a familiar problem: public adoption is still catching up with the country’s digital ambitions. At the GSMA M360 Eurasia summit in Samarkand in May, Digital Technologies Minister Sherzod Shermatov said Uzbekistan was promoting mass education among young people through the “5 Million AI Leaders” program, while GSMA data projected that more than 40% of mobile connections in Uzbekistan could use 5G by 2030. The comparison with Kazakhstan remains instructive. TCA has previously reported that Kazakhstan is already testing AI-linked systems in state administration, including the KEDEN customs platform, which has cut declaration processing times to under one minute, and Smart Cargo, a planned single digital window for logistics services. Microsoft’s figures suggest that Kazakhstan’s more advanced public uptake is beginning to match its state-backed digital push, while Uzbekistan is still building the skills and infrastructure needed to broaden AI use.

GSMA Summit

Uzbekistan AI and 5G Push in Focus at GSMA M360 Eurasia

Policymakers, telecom executives, investors and technology leaders gathered in Samarkand on May 20-21 for GSMA M360 Eurasia 2026, a regional summit focused on digital transformation, artificial intelligence, connectivity and the future of telecommunications across Eurasia. The event brought together government representatives and industry figures to discuss how countries in Central Asia and neighboring regions can translate expanding mobile connectivity into long-term economic growth. Questions surrounding 5G deployment, AI infrastructure, education, startup ecosystems and digital skills featured prominently throughout the discussions. In an interview with The Times of Central Asia, Tair Ismailov, Strategic Engagement Director at the GSMA, discussed what governments should realistically expect from 5G, the challenges of building AI ecosystems and why education may ultimately determine whether countries benefit from rapid technological change. His comments come as Uzbekistan expands investment in telecommunications, data infrastructure and AI education while positioning itself as one of Central Asia’s fastest-growing digital economies. Why 5G May Matter More to Industry Than Consumers For many governments, 5G deployment has become a symbol of technological progress. Yet Ismailov said the economic benefits differ significantly depending on how countries adopt the technology. “Each country has its own path,” he said. “There are countries that have been pioneers in 5G, for example the U.S., South Korea and China, because they have ecosystems of equipment that they need to produce and drive.” Other countries, he argued, may benefit from moving later. “Sometimes it’s better for developing countries not to be in the avant-garde, but rather to follow examples and learn from existing cases,” he said. According to Ismailov, one of 5G’s most immediate functions is helping networks manage growing internet demand. Digital consumption patterns have changed dramatically over the last decade, he noted. “Back in the day, we never streamed videos, now we take it for granted,” Ismailov said. “Average internet consumption in the region is around 17GB per month per user. These are big numbers.” As traffic increases, networks require greater efficiency and capacity. “For networks simply to cope with this traffic, they need to be more productive, and 5G brings this productivity,” he explained. However, he suggested that the technology’s most significant economic impact may emerge outside consumer markets. “If you look at China and other markets, the biggest 5G benefits are granted to the B2B sector,” Ismailov said. “Businesses benefit from low latency and higher speeds.” Consumers may not immediately notice improvements, he added, but industries relying on automation, logistics, manufacturing or cloud services could see larger gains. “On the consumer side, you might not notice it,” he said, “but when you don’t have it, you start noticing it.” [caption id="attachment_49335" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] Image: TCA/Sadokat Jalolova[/caption] Building AI Requires More Than Data Generation As artificial intelligence expands globally, governments have begun viewing data as a strategic resource. Asked whether Uzbekistan has enough high-quality and accessible data to build a meaningful AI ecosystem, Ismailov argued that generating information is no longer the primary challenge. “I don’t think the question is generating data,” he said. “The question is...

New Uzbekistan

Opinion: The Reform Paradox for Uzbekistan: Global Capital, Political Control

In mid-May, Uzbekistan is preparing to take a major step onto the global financial stage – one that reflects its broader, decade-long push to open its economy to international investors. The country's National Investment Fund (UzNIF), a $2.4 billion vehicle holding minority stakes in 13 strategic state-owned enterprises, is preparing to list 30% of its capital on the London and Tashkent stock exchanges — the first time such a state-backed investment vehicle is being listed on international equity markets. For President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, the move signals that Uzbekistan wants to be seen as an investable, reforming, and globally connected state. But the planned listing also captures the central paradox of Uzbekistan's current trajectory: the country is opening economically while remaining politically closed. Foreign investors are being invited in. State assets are being partially exposed to market discipline. Capital markets are being developed. Yet the political system remains tightly managed, with limited opposition, weak institutional pluralism, and few independent channels for releasing social pressure. That is why Uzbekistan's stability should not be read only as a strength. It should also be read as a system test: can controlled modernization keep producing legitimacy without creating political mechanisms for absorbing the expectations it generates? Mirziyoyev as a Controlled Modernizer Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s political style is not that of a frontline strongman constantly mobilizing society against enemies. His approach is administrative, developmental, and transactional: reform from above, personnel control, investment attraction, infrastructure, market opening, and the redistribution of economic flows. In this sense, Mirziyoyev is best understood not as a liberal reformer in the Western sense, but as a controlled modernizer. The reform agenda is real. Uzbekistan has moved to attract foreign capital, open selected state assets, improve its business image, and position itself as a more predictable investment destination. The UzNIF listing fits this broader effort: it is designed to deepen capital markets, signal openness to international investors, and show that the state is willing to place parts of its economic architecture under market scrutiny. But the political architecture remains tightly managed. Freedom House continues to rate Uzbekistan as "Not Free" — 12 points out of 100 in its 2026 report — citing the concentration of power in the executive branch, the absence of a genuine parliamentary opposition, and severe restrictions on independent journalists and human rights defenders. This is the central tension: Uzbekistan is reforming economically, but not politically. [caption id="attachment_48249" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] Tashkent has opened up to investment over the past decade. Image: Joe Luc Barnes[/caption] Growth as Legitimacy For now, the model works because growth provides legitimacy. The World Bank expects Uzbekistan's economy to grow by around 6.4% in 2026, following 7.7% growth in 2025 – supported by domestic demand, private consumption, and continued investment. Public debt remains comparatively moderate at around 28% of GDP, and the country benefits from the perception that it is one of the more dynamic economies in the region. This gives the ruling system room to maneuver. The reform narrative allows the leadership to present itself as forward-looking without opening the...

Innovation

INMerge Tashkent Showcases Rise of Uzbekistan as Regional Innovation Hub

On April 30, investors, founders and corporate leaders gathered in Uzbekistan’s capital, Tashkent, for the latest incarnation of the INMerge Innovation Summit. The traveling series followed an earlier session in Istanbul and will lead into the main summit scheduled for October 8-9 in Baku. In Tashkent, discussions centered on a question that continues to define Uzbekistan’s digital trajectory: how to turn rapid growth into a sustainable, interconnected ecosystem capable of competing beyond national borders. Two core discussions framed the agenda. The first focused on how companies are building digital ecosystems around everyday user needs. The second addressed a more structural issue: whether capital alone is enough to build what some participants called a “Digital Silk Road,” or whether deeper foundations are required. A Rising Regional Star The series of summits has been organized by PASHA Holding, an Azerbaijani conglomerate owned by the ruling Aliyev and Pashayev families. For Tughra Musayeva, Head of Innovations at PASHA Financial Holding and Managing Partner at INMerge Ventures, Uzbekistan stands out as a "rising star of the region". “It’s rich in human talent and capital, and increased political support for innovation and tech infrastructure is already showing results," she told The Times of Central Asia on the sidelines of the event. "In the coming years, we’re going to see many interesting startups and projects emerging from Uzbekistan.” Musayeva challenged a common assumption about emerging tech markets – that they remain dependent on foreign expertise. In her view, Tashkent already has most of the elements needed to sustain growth internally. “What we see right now is a very self-sufficient platform. There is infrastructure and the right actors are in place. The next step is about scaling, especially across borders,” she said, pointing to her ambition to increase cross-border collaboration between Central Asia and the Caucasus. A similar emphasis on connectivity came from her colleague Ulviyya Mehraliyeva, innovation events manager at PASHA Financial Holding and a member of the INMerge team. For her, the Tashkent gathering was part of a broader effort to link ecosystems that often develop in isolation. “What differentiates us is our focus on connecting ideas, people, ecosystems, and talent with opportunities," she told TCA. “We believe Tashkent has huge potential. There has been significant investment and development in the startup ecosystem.” To her, the city is already emerging as a regional hub, but she cautioned that Uzbekistan still has a lot to learn from outside. “It’s both building your own ecosystem while also learning from others. This is a stage of development. Every region goes through it,” she said. “We believe that collaboration between countries like Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan will only strengthen that.” [caption id="attachment_48170" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] Image: TCA[/caption] The View from the Ground Practitioners working within Uzbekistan’s tech sector were more circumspect. Dalerkhon Nodirov, CEO of IT Park Ventures, offered a more measured view of the country’s technological independence, particularly in the field of artificial intelligence. “We don’t yet have our own AI models,” he said. “At this stage, we still depend...

Crime

Uzbekistan’s 2026 Reform Program Introduces Life Imprisonment for Pedophilia

President Shavkat Mirziyoyev has approved draft reform programs setting out priority measures for 2026, along with the State Program for implementing the “Uzbekistan-2030” Strategy during what has been declared the “Year of Community and Social Prosperity,” according to the presidential press service. The documents were presented to the president at a briefing that highlighted a new methodology drawing on advanced international experience. Officials stated that the drafts define the main policy directions and target indicators for the coming year, in line with the President’s Address to the public and the Parliament, the Oliy Majlis, and outline specific implementation mechanisms. A distinction was drawn between the reform programs and the State Program. The reform programs consolidate initiatives proposed by the president and identify the most urgent reforms for 2026. These include modernizing mahalla infrastructure in line with the concept of a “New Uzbekistan,” shifting the economy toward technology and innovation-driven growth while stimulating domestic demand, upgrading professional training systems and reshaping the labor market, ensuring environmental sustainability and rational water use, strengthening public administration and the judicial system, and reinforcing social cohesion. Officials emphasized a shift from “document development” to measurable results. Each initiative is accompanied by defined implementation mechanisms and key performance indicators to assess progress by the end of the year. Individual officials have been assigned personal responsibility and coordinating state bodies have been designated. The State Program structures the implementation of the Uzbekistan-2030 Strategy targets for 2026 and includes 337 specific measures. It included the preparation of 59 key legislative and regulatory drafts across sectors, along with 12 additional drafts related to major strategic reforms. Public consultation played a significant role in shaping the document. From January 23 to February 1, the draft State Program was published for public discussion. According to official data, more than 5 million users viewed the document online, and over 22,000 comments and proposals were submitted. More than 50 discussions were held at universities and state institutions, involving approximately 10,000 students, faculty members, and civil servants. Nearly 1,000 proposals were incorporated into the final draft. Among the approved initiatives are stricter penalties for violence against women and children, the introduction of life imprisonment for pedophilia, reforms to mortgage and electric vehicle lending mechanisms, an increase in the share of renewable energy to 30%, strengthened anti-corruption measures, and the introduction of juries in criminal proceedings. In a related regional context, discussions on criminal justice reform have also intensified elsewhere in Central Asia. In Kazakhstan, the Health Ministry previously proposed tightening procedures related to chemical castration for individuals convicted of sexual crimes against minors, reflecting a broader regional debate on the protection of vulnerable groups. The Uzbek government plans to allocate 250.5 trillion UZS (more than $20.4 billion) from budgetary sources and attract an additional $50.4 billion to finance the 2026 programs. The Ministry of Justice and the Chamber of Accounts will conduct ongoing monitoring, while the Cabinet of Ministers will review progress quarterly. Reports are to be submitted to the Legislative Chamber every six...