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Kazakhstan Awaits Results of Nuclear Referendum; Exit Polls Indicate a “Yes” Vote

Kazakhstan is awaiting the official results of a referendum on whether to build its first nuclear power plant, though exit polls showed “yes” voters were in the majority, according to state-run media reports. The project could ease chronic energy shortages and reduce reliance on coal-fired facilities but is fraught with concerns about costs, transparency, and the legacy of the human and environmental cost of Soviet nuclear weapons testing decades ago. Led by President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Kazakhstan’s political establishment has backed the idea of peaceful nuclear power as a way to move the country forward and the referendum appears aimed partly at giving people a sense of agency after the trauma of Soviet testing at Semipalatinsk. But some opponents allege that authorities restricted their efforts to organize a “no” campaign with detentions and other pressure designed to lock in an expected vote in favor. Officials results had not been announced as of early Monday morning. Voting at polling stations in Kazakhstan ended at 8 p.m. on Sunday and turnout among eligible voters was 63.87%, according to the Central Election Commission. The highest turnout was in the Kyzylorda region (82.48%) and the lowest turnout was in the city of Almaty (25.39%). Turnout in Astana, Kazakhstan’s capital, was 50.81%. “The precinct referendum commissions have begun counting the votes. The counting process at each polling station must not exceed twelve hours from the start of the count,” the commission said. Additionally, more than 7,358 Kazakh citizens voted at polling stations abroad, including in Asia, South America, Europe, and the United States, according to Roman Vassilenko, Kazakhstan’s Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs. He noted at a briefing on Sunday night that the referendum had been monitored by observers from regional organizations, including the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the Organization of Turkic States, and the Astana-based Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia. The heads of the observer missions said the referendum was “open, free, and legitimate, with no violations detected at any polling stations,” Vassilenko said. Kazakhstan also invited observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, but the OSCE declined to send a delegation “due to heavy workload,” reported the state-run Kazinform news agency. The OSCE sent a mission to observe a 2022 referendum on constitutional changes in Kazakhstan and concluded that it took place “in an environment short of genuine political pluralism.” One critic of the rules surrounding the nuclear referendum is Tamara Yeslyamova, editor-in-chief of the Uralskaya Nedelya, a newspaper that has sparred with the government over the years. A judge issued her with a fine for 110,760 tenge ($230) after she conducted video interviews about the referendum on nuclear power with half a dozen people on the street, the newspaper reported. It said the judge concluded that the interviews amounted to a public opinion survey; the law says such a poll can only be done by a state-sanctioned entity.

Kazakhstanis Will Be Able to Vote in 61 Countries in the Nuclear Power Referendum

Speaking at a briefing, Secretary of the Central Election Commission of Kazakhstan Mukhtar Erman said that 76 polling stations in 61 countries abroad will be opened for citizens to participate in the referendum on constructing nuclear power plants. However, the polling station in Lebanon will not open due to the current situation there. “Just today, we held consultations with the Foreign Ministry, and we received information from our colleagues that one polling station in Lebanon will not be opened because, you know, there are full-scale hostilities in that country. The situation there is tough; we cannot risk our voters' and fellow citizens' lives and health. That is why there are currently 76 polling stations and 61 countries,” Erman said, noting that all procedures relating to voting abroad — opening of polling stations, counting of votes, and transfer of information — will be carried out in strict accordance with Kazakhstan's current legislation. Earlier, The Times of Central Asia reported that 177 international observers from 30 countries and four international organizations will monitor the referendum on NPP in Kazakhstan. In addition, on the day of the referendum, 200 foreign journalists from 37 countries will be on the ground to ensure the transparency and objectivity of the referendum. The idea of holding the referendum, which will be held on October 6, 2024, emerged against the backdrop of regular problems with energy supply and the need to modernize infrastructure. An active debate has accompanied the move.

Observers From 30 Countries Will Follow the Referendum on NPP in Kazakhstan

The secretary of the Central Referendum Commission, Mukhtar Erman, has announced that 177 international observers will monitor the referendum on constructing a nuclear power plant (NPP) in Kazakhstan. Erman specified that observers represent 30 countries and four international organizations. Major international organizations invited by Kazakhstan include the OSCE, SCO, CIS, and Organization of Turkic States; however, the OSCE will not participate due to its high workload. Deputy Foreign Minister Roman Vassilenko added that 200 foreign journalists from 37 countries, including international media representatives, will work on the day of the referendum. According to Vassilenko, this will ensure transparency and objectivity. The idea of holding the referendum, which will be held on October 6, 2024, emerged against the backdrop of regular problems with energy supply and the need to modernize infrastructure. An active debate has characterized the build-up to the referendum, a project supported by the authorities as a solution to combat energy shortages and carbon dioxide emissions, whilst some quarters of the population remain concerned about environmental risks and Kazakhstan's historical connection to nuclear testing.

The Geopolitical Battle for Kazakhstan’s First Nuclear Power Plant

Nuclear power plants currently operate in only 32 countries in the world. Kazakhstan seems poised to join their ranks in the near future; but what does this shift mean for the energy-rich Central Asian nation? Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Kazakhstan has been a strong advocate for nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament. Astana not only eliminated its nuclear arsenal, which was one of the largest in the world at the time, but also closed the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site, where the Soviet Union conducted more than 450 nuclear tests over 40 years. Thousands of people in Kazakhstan experienced birth defects and cancer linked to nuclear testing. This history makes the construction of a nuclear power plant in the former Soviet republic a particularly sensitive issue. Nevertheless, a majority of the population in Kazakhstan is expected to support building a nuclear facility in the national referendum scheduled for October 6. But what comes after the vote? If the citizens of Kazakhstan approve the government’s plans to go nuclear, the country might get its first nuclear power plant no earlier than 2035. In the meantime, Astana will have to find a strategic partner to participate in the development of the facility. Building and operation a nuclear power plant requires advanced technology, engineering expertise, and rigorous safety standards – areas where Kazakhstan currently lacks experience. “As a result, the country will likely need to rely on international partners to design, build, and possibly even operate its first nuclear power plant,” said James Walker, CEO and Head of Reactor Development at NANO Nuclear Energy, in an interview with The Times of Central Asia. Although most policymakers in Kazakhstan would like Western companies to build a nuclear power plant in Ulken, on the western shore of Lake Balkhash, at this point the Russian State Nuclear Energy Corporation Rosatom seems to have the best chance of playing a key role in the project. In Walker’s view, Russia has a long history of cooperation with Kazakhstan in the nuclear sector and could be a logical partner, especially given its extensive experience in building and operating nuclear power plants in other countries. “Rosatom has been actively involved in Kazakhstan’s nuclear sector for years, including uranium mining and nuclear fuel cycle activities. This established presence, coupled with Russia’s geopolitical influence in Central Asia, makes Rosatom a strong contender,” stressed the CEO of NANO Nuclear Energy, pointing out that Chinese corporations are also very interested in the potential construction of the first Kazakh nuclear power plant. Indeed, according to reports, the China National Nuclear Corporation offered to build a 1.2 GW nuclear power plant unit in Kazakhstan for $2.8 billion, with the construction taking five years. Another candidate for the project is South Korea’s Korea Electric Power Corporation. The largest electric utility in the East Asian nation reportedly proposed building a water-cooled power reactor –using water as a coolant to transfer heat away from the core. Walker, however, argues that while South Korea has a competitive edge...

From Test Sites to Power Plants: Kazakhstan’s Journey Towards a Nuclear Referendum

The history of nuclear power in Kazakhstan has many chapters: the arms race, the suffering of people due to test sites, the highest achievements in the name of science, and the service of the nuclear industry for the benefit of society are closely intertwined here. On the eve of the referendum on Kazakhstan's first atomic power plant, it is necessary to revisit these pages in history.   A dark past Construction of the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site began in the Kazakh Soviet Socialist Republic in 1947. The test site is located on the border of the Semipalatinsk (now Abay), Pavlodar, and Karaganda regions, 130 kilometers northwest of Semipalatinsk (now Semey), on the left bank of the Irtysh River. On its territory is the previously closed city of Kurchatov, renamed as such in honor of Soviet-era physicist, Igor Kurchatov. The first nuclear weapons test held in the Soviet Union was conducted at this site on August 29, 1949. The power of the bomb totaled 22 kilotons. From 1949 to 1989, at least 468 nuclear tests were conducted at the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site. The long-term operation of this site and its negative impact on residents' health and the surrounding environment help to explain the fear of nuclear energy in Kazakhstan. Two million people were affected across 300 square kilometers; with all agriculture banned, a vast swathe of land still remains off-limits. Pregnancies are still screened for possible termination, with 6% of babies born “polygon” (the name for the "closed zone".) [caption id="attachment_23475" align="aligncenter" width="1200"] Polygon baby, National Museum of Kazakhstan, Astana; image: TCA, Stephen M. Bland[/caption]   Shutdowns and shortages On August 29, 1991, Kazakhstan's first president, Nursultan Nazarbayev, closed the Semipalatinsk test site. Prior to this, citizens had held rallies protesting against nuclear testing and its development. By 1994, Kazakhstan had voluntarily relinquished its part of the USSR's nuclear arsenal. On May 15, 1992, the National Nuclear Center in the city of Kurchatov was established based on the complex of the former Semipalatinsk test site. The Center deals with eliminating the consequences of nuclear tests and also conducts active and multidisciplinary scientific activities on the remaining research reactors in Kurchatov. Scientific research occurs internationally and touches upon safety technologies, the space program, and more. In 1957, the Institute of Nuclear Physics of the Kazakh SSR Academy of Sciences was founded near Almaty (then Alma-Ata), where the VVR-K reactor, which is still operating today, was launched in 1967. The reactor was shut down in the late 1980s after the Chernobyl disaster and the earthquake in Spitak (Armenia); it was restarted in 1997, and the complex underwent safety and seismic reinforcement modernization. The Institute owns eight experimental facilities: the VVR-K research reactor, a "Критический стенд" lit. "critical stand," and six charged particle gas pedal complexes. In 1972, a unique fast neutron reactor BN-350 was launched in Aktau (then Shevchenko) at the Mangistau Atomic Energy Combine (MAEC). The reactor provided the Mangistau Peninsula with electricity and heat, and supported the operation of desalination plants...