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The Trump Factor: Why Central Asia Has Remained Silent on Iran’s Protests

The wave of protests that erupted in Iran in late December and spread to at least 27 of the country’s 31 provinces has become the largest since 2022, when mass demonstrations followed the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in the custody of Iran’s morality police. The unrest has raised new concerns across the region about political stability, energy markets, and the risk of external intervention. Rights monitors say protests have been reported in hundreds of locations nationwide, with death and detention tolls still contested. Human rights groups and independent monitoring organizations estimate that dozens of people have been killed and more than 2,000 detained, while Iranian officials have offered varying accounts and blamed violence on what they describe as “rioters.” In Kazakhstan, observers are drawing comparisons to the country’s own January 2022 unrest, officially labeled an attempted coup that ended in a violent crackdown. But beyond the parallels with Kazakhstan’s ‘Qantar’ events, analysts are focusing on the wider implications, particularly the potential impact of Iran’s domestic turmoil on global oil markets. For Kazakhstan, the stakes are heightened by the country’s reliance on hydrocarbon exports and the sensitivity of global energy markets to supply shocks. Any sharp change in Iranian output, even if temporary, could place downward pressure on prices and complicate budget planning for oil-dependent economies across Central Asia. Kazakh financial analyst Rasul Rysmambetov has voiced concern that unrest in Iran could trigger a surge in oil production aimed at funding social spending, a move that could drive down global oil prices and harm Kazakhstan’s oil-dependent economy. “Iran could add half a million barrels a day within six months and cause oil prices to collapse, but it would not do so casually. The Middle East is very sensitive and knows how to negotiate. Still, if the protests persist, Tehran might ramp up production to finance social needs. [This would be] painful for Kazakhstan. If Venezuela is a bear cub, then Iran is a grizzly bear in the bushes with its oil,” Rysmambetov warned on his Telegram channel. While political unrest typically raises oil prices by increasing supply risk, analysts note that Iran’s response could be atypical. Faced with fiscal pressure, Tehran may opt to increase production to stabilize revenues, a move that would push prices lower despite heightened instability. Iran’s chronic social issues, exacerbated by inflation and the collapse of the national currency, have fueled public discontent for more than a decade. While the Iranian authorities acknowledge the severity of the economic crisis and have conceded that some demands are legitimate, they have also warned of further hardships. On January 5, the judiciary announced that no leniency would be shown toward those detained during the protests. Russian experts, meanwhile, have framed the unrest in geopolitical terms. Irina Fedorova of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Oriental Studies cited renewed sanctions, critical shortages of water and electricity, and foreign interference as the root causes. However, she dismissed the likelihood of regime change, pointing to disunity among opposition factions. “The difference...

Kazakhstan Oil Output Projected to Reach 100 Million Tons Annually

Kazakhstan is projected to reach an annual oil production level of 100 million tons in the coming years and sustain that output over the long term, according to Askat Khasenov, Chairman of the Board of the national oil and gas company KazMunayGas (KMG). The Ministry of Energy initially forecast oil production at 96.2 million tons for 2025, later adjusting the estimate to 96 million tons. In 2024, Kazakhstan produced 87 million tons of oil, with growth driven by the Tengiz expansion and the development of the Karachaganak and Kashagan projects in western Kazakhstan and the Caspian shelf. In November 2024, the ministry announced plans to surpass 100 million tons annually starting in 2026. KMG believes this level can be maintained for the foreseeable future. “The government officially plans to produce more than 100 million tons of oil per year, and I believe this plateau will last for a long time. New geological projects will allow us to maintain this level in the long term,” Khasenov said during Kazakhstan Energy Week 2025 in Astana. “Our company is actively developing exploration under a strategy focused on the sustainable replenishment of the country’s mineral resource base. Currently, KMG’s portfolio includes 13 exploration projects, implemented both independently and in partnership with international companies such as Eni, Lukoil, CNOOC, Sinopec, and Tatneft. Our goal is to achieve an increase in reserves of up to 200 million tons of oil in the short term.” Khasenov also noted that KMG is conducting geological studies in underexplored regions of Kazakhstan, with eight new projects already initiated. The overall potential of ongoing exploration is estimated at 800 million tons of oil equivalent. In parallel, the company is applying enhanced oil recovery techniques to sustain production at mature fields. Another strategic priority for KMG is oil refining. The company aims to fully meet domestic demand for gasoline, diesel, and other fuels while expanding its petrochemical footprint to produce polymers and carbamide, boosting Kazakhstan’s non-resource exports. Temirlan Urkumbaev, Director of the Department of Petrochemistry and Technical Regulation at the Ministry of Energy, emphasized that petrochemicals are becoming a cornerstone of economic diversification. “Petrochemistry is not just about new sources of revenue. It brings new jobs, export income, and sustainable development. For Kazakhstan, the transition from a raw-material model to deep processing is a strategic necessity,” Urkumbaev said. The ministry has developed a 2024-2030 Roadmap for the petrochemical industry, which includes six major projects worth approximately $15 billion and expected to create more than 19,000 jobs. Among these is a polyethylene plant with an annual capacity of 1.25 million tons, scheduled to begin operations in 2029. The facility will produce over 20 grades of polyethylene, including premium types, and is projected to account for around 1% of the global market. Other planned projects include the production of butadiene, carbamide, and alkylate. In 2022, Kazakhstan launched one of the world’s largest polypropylene plants KPI Inc. with an annual capacity of 500,000 tons. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, the Kazakh...

Kazakhstan Plans to Export Up to a Third of Its Fuel Production by 2040

The government of Kazakhstan has approved a long-term development strategy for the oil refining industry for the period 2025-2040, significantly increasing its forecast for petroleum product exports. The new plan triples previous export projections, aiming for exports to account for 30% of total production by 2040. According to the strategy, key priorities include expanding refining capacity and boosting exports to China, India, and neighboring Central Asian countries. By comparison, in May 2024, the Ministry of Energy had presented a separate draft strategy looking toward 2050, which proposed limiting fuel exports to 10%, and only in cases where domestic supply exceeded demand. Refinery Modernization and Capacity Goals The new strategy builds on recent progress. Following the modernization of Kazakhstan’s three largest refineries, Atyrau, Pavlodar, and Shymkent, total oil processing capacity reached 17 million tons per year. The plan envisions boosting this figure to 39 million tons annually by 2040. “The refining depth has already reached 89%, and the motor fuel produced now meets Euro-4 standards and higher. These improvements have allowed us to meet 90-95% of domestic demand and created favorable conditions for the export of high value-added products,” the Ministry of Energy stated. The strategy calls for expanding existing facilities and constructing a new petrochemical complex to raise refining depth to 94%. This will ensure full domestic fuel coverage amid projected annual demand growth of 1.5-2%, driven by urbanization and industrial development. A major focus will be the advancement of Kazakhstan’s oil and gas chemical industry, including the production of polymers, fertilizers, and other high-value products. Up to $5 billion is expected to be invested in this sector. “The strategy is designed to attract foreign investment, particularly given the country’s reserves of 30 billion barrels of oil. In the context of the global energy transition, this will position Kazakhstan as a regional leader in hydrocarbon processing and enhance economic resilience to global commodity price fluctuations,” the ministry emphasized. Implementation is scheduled to begin in 2025 with pilot projects for refinery digitization. Current Production and Export Landscape In 2024, Kazakhstan’s refineries produced 13 million tons of petroleum products, 1% more than in 2023, according to national oil and gas company KazMunayGas. This included 4.3 million tons each of gasoline and other fuels, and 4.4 million tons of diesel. Kazakhstan also imported 1.2 million tons of fuel from Russia. Prior to the reintroduction of export restrictions in 2024, the country exported 13,500 tons of motor fuel. Similar bans were in place in 2021, 2023, and 2024, meaning Kazakhstan’s fuel exports effectively occurred only in 2020 (nearly 120,000 tons) and 2022 (1,800 tons). As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kazakhstan is planning to invest $15 billion in its oil and gas chemical sector as part of six major projects aimed at strengthening downstream capacity and export potential.

Kazakhstan Reaffirms OPEC+ Commitment While Seeking to Renegotiate Investor Contracts

Kazakhstan has confirmed it will remain a part of the OPEC+ agreement on oil production cuts, despite persistently exceeding its allocated quotas. Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov made the announcement at a press conference on Tuesday, while also revealing that the government is initiating negotiations to revise production sharing agreements (PSAs) with foreign investors operating in the country’s largest oil and gas fields. The OPEC+ agreement, an alliance between OPEC members and non-OPEC oil-producing countries, including Kazakhstan, aims to coordinate output to stabilize global energy markets. Under the current deal, signed in December 2023, member states voluntarily committed to cutting combined oil production by 2.17 million barrels per day through the end of 2026. However, Kazakhstan has consistently exceeded its quota in recent months. According to the Ministry of Energy, oil exports in June 2025 reached 1.86 million barrels per day, 80,000 more than in May and nearly 500,000 barrels above the country’s voluntary limit. The surge is primarily attributed to the expansion of the Tengiz oil field, one of Kazakhstan’s largest energy projects. The $49 billion Future Growth Project is already operational and is expected to boost annual output by 12 million tons, or roughly 260,000 barrels per day, an increase of nearly 40%. Acknowledging the challenges of meeting OPEC+ targets, Bektenov emphasized Kazakhstan’s continued commitment to the deal: “We are not considering withdrawing from the OPEC+ agreement, as we believe it is useful and contributes to stability in the oil market,” Bektenov stated. “We will strive to fulfill our obligations, but with national interests in mind.” At the same time, Bektenov underscored the government’s limited control over production levels at key fields such as Tengiz, Karachaganak, and Kashagan, where foreign investors hold substantial stakes. “We cannot demand that our partners reduce production, as they have made significant investments and are counting on a return,” he said. To address this issue, Kazakhstan has begun discussions with investors to revise existing PSAs, aiming to secure a greater share of national revenues from energy production. “There is a view that the country’s interests are not fully reflected in the existing agreements. We are starting a dialogue on new agreements for a new period,” Bektenov said. “At the same time, we will act carefully to maintain the investment climate.” This dual strategy, upholding international commitments while seeking more favorable terms, illustrates Kazakhstan’s intent to balance global cooperation with national economic priorities. PSAs for the country’s three main oil fields are due to expire in the coming decades: Tengiz in 2033, Karachaganak in 2037, and Kashagan in 2041. Together, these fields account for approximately two-thirds of Kazakhstan’s total oil output, 67 million out of 90 million tons annually. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev instructed the government in January to begin seeking revisions to the PSA terms well ahead of their expiration.

Slippery Slope: How Volatile Oil Prices Threaten Kazakhstan’s Energy Giant

With global oil markets in flux and prices dipping below $70 per barrel, Kazakhstan’s state oil company faces mounting financial strain. If KazMunayGas (KMG) fails to adapt, it risks edging toward a fiscal cliff. Yet, political constraints, exacerbated by the ongoing specter of potential social unrest, have hindered the company’s ability to implement reforms. OPEC+ Fuels Market Uncertainty The global oil market is entering a new period of turbulence reminiscent of the pandemic era. Despite prolonged efforts by OPEC+ to manage output and stabilize prices, the alliance’s fragile consensus unraveled this April, when Saudi Arabia and Russia led an unexpected increase in production, undermining earlier commitments and tipping the market into oversupply. Meanwhile, U.S. shale producers have continued to expand their output and export aggressively, squeezing traditional suppliers out of lucrative Asian markets. A decelerating Chinese economy, the world’s largest oil importer, adds further downward pressure. As a result, Brent crude fell below $70 per barrel in early May and briefly traded under $65. For Kazakhstan, where oil exports are a key source of budgetary and foreign exchange income, this trend spells trouble, and KMG is particularly exposed. The “Black Hole” in KMG’s Finances Public data shows that KMG’s production costs vary from $40 to $70 per barrel, depending on the field. However, factoring in transportation, taxes, and social obligations, the real breakeven point nears $90 per barrel. Aging infrastructure in the Mangistau region, reliant on constant technical upkeep and subsidies, only adds to the burden. KMG’s debt load compounds the challenge. At the end of 2024, its total debt exceeded 4 trillion tenge ($7.87 billion). With export revenues dwindling, debt servicing is becoming untenable. Even short-term dips to $60-65 per barrel could have systemic consequences, stalling new investments, triggering layoffs, and slashing social spending. A key drain is OzenMunayGas (OMG), KMG’s subsidiary in Zhanaozen, where production costs reportedly hit $90 per barrel. “OzenMunayGas exemplifies how populism, inflated promises, and stagnant reforms can turn a major asset into a financial sinkhole,” Arman Bataev, a former internal auditor at KMG has stated. On his Telegram channel, Finmentor.kz, Bataev warned that a $90 production cost versus Brent at $59 is “not a temporary hardship but a dead end.” OMG required 30 billion KZT in financial aid last year, and Bataev predicts it may require 60-70 billion KZT in 2025. KMG Downplays Risks KazMunayGas officials maintain that the company is “prepared for all scenarios” and holds “sufficient reserves.” At a May press briefing, Deputy Chairman Aset Magauov emphasized that 70% of KMG’s output is sold domestically, insulating it somewhat from global price volatility. “Analysts expect prices to average $65 per barrel this year, but forecasts are inherently uncertain,” Magauov said. “We have contingency plans and cost-optimization measures ready. We are equipped to handle price fluctuations.” Magauov also noted that domestic oil prices are lower than export prices, and products like gasoline and diesel, refined at KMG’s three facilities, are now sold at market rates following the end of state price controls. He added...

Kazakhstan Signals Early Review of Oil Production Sharing Agreements

The question of revisiting Kazakhstan’s production-sharing agreements (PSAs) with foreign oil companies is once again gaining prominence both within the country and internationally. While the Ministry of Energy is formally responsible for managing these contracts, growing pressure is coming not only from civil society but also directly from President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, who has publicly questioned the long-standing terms of these deals since 2022. Confidential Terms, Public Scrutiny Recent revelations have further fueled this debate. The International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) recently detailed the ongoing arbitration dispute between Kazakhstan and the North Caspian Operating Company (NCOC), which manages the Kashagan field. The stakes are high: $160 billion is under contention. Yet what shocked the Kazakh public most was not the litigation itself, but that the state receives just 2% of the field’s profits, with a staggering 98% flowing to foreign stakeholders. Such findings offer context for why the Ministry of Energy is reluctant to release details of these 1990s-era agreements, originally negotiated with significant involvement from Kazakhstan’s first president, Nursultan Nazarbayev. In a recent court case, the ministry successfully blocked a lawsuit by Vadim Ni, founder of the Save the Caspian Sea movement, who demanded public disclosure of PSA terms affecting environmental interests in the Caspian. The ministry argued that Kazakhstan’s adherence to international confidentiality clauses is essential to avoid multibillion-dollar lawsuits and maintain its reputation as a stable investment destination. However, the ministry also emphasized that confidentiality does not shield violators from environmental penalties. Calls for transparency and revision have come from various quarters. Members of the Ak Zhol party and the Parasat Business Alliance have joined the chorus, urging the government to review the PSAs. In this context, President Tokayev’s consistent remarks suggest a coordinated state policy shift. A Change in Presidential Tone Tokayev first broached the subject in a 2022 interview with Russia 24, reflecting on the constraints Kazakhstan faced during the early years of independence. At the time, the country had no legal framework for foreign investment and had to rely on companies like Chevron to develop its energy sector. The president acknowledged the success of some ventures but also suggested the need for a “correction” to reflect current realities. Fast forward to 2023, and the government launched a $5 billion lawsuit against NCOC over alleged environmental violations. Although Kazakhstan has been temporarily barred from collecting the fines pending arbitration, the case marks a significant escalation. In April 2024, the Parasat Business Alliance held a public briefing demanding more local participation in procurement contracts tied to oil fields such as Karachaganak, Kashagan, and Tengiz. Kazakh companies reportedly receive less than 5% of $12 billion in annual procurements, a figure viewed as unacceptable by domestic businesses. By January 2025, Tokayev’s rhetoric had hardened. Speaking at an expanded government meeting, he instructed his cabinet to actively renegotiate PSA terms before their expiration. "The implementation of these agreements has helped Kazakhstan become a reliable global energy supplier,” he said, “but large investments require updated terms that benefit our nation.”...