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Reshuffle

Japarov and Tokayev’s High-Level Reshuffles Usher in a New Political Season

Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan recently witnessed high-level political developments that drew attention beyond their borders. In Kyrgyzstan, the national parliament self-dissolved, while Kazakhstan underwent a series of administrative reshuffles. Though both events were driven by reform-oriented policies, observers have offered sharply contrasting interpretations. In Kyrgyzstan, the initiative to dissolve the Jogorku Kenesh (parliament) was led by a group of 32 deputies headed by Speaker Nurlanbek Turgunbek uulu. They cited logistical and financial concerns over the proximity of the next parliamentary and presidential elections, scheduled for November 2026 and January 2027, respectively. Holding two major elections in such a short span, they argued, would pose political and economic challenges. As a result, early parliamentary elections will now take place on November 30, under revised electoral rules. The new system divides the country into 30 constituencies, each electing three deputies. Political parties may nominate only one candidate per district, and the overall number of deputies will remain at 90. However, the majority of seats are now expected to go to independents, reducing the dominance of political parties in the electoral process. Some Kazakh observers, long accustomed to viewing Kyrgyzstan as a “democratic island” in the region, interpreted these changes as a move toward greater political openness. Former diplomat and public figure Kazbek Beysembayev contrasted Kyrgyzstan’s reforms with Kazakhstan’s political trajectory, where authorities are reportedly planning to eliminate single-mandate districts in favor of a fully party-based electoral system. He warned this would further consolidate the ruling party’s dominance. “Such a move might be acceptable if laws on political party registration had first been liberalized. But that hasn’t happened,” Beysembayev argued. However, not all analysts share this optimistic view. Central Asia expert Arkady Dubnov sees the Kyrgyz move as a calculated maneuver by the ruling elite. He argues that a political duumvirate, composed of President Sadyr Japarov and State Committee for National Security (SCNS) chief Kamchybek Tashiev, has increasingly consolidated control. According to Dubnov, the early elections are designed to cement this grip on power. “By extending the gap between the parliamentary and presidential elections to 14 months, the authorities are creating space for a politically engineered campaign,” Dubnov explained. “This may pave the way for General Tashiev’s eventual rise to the presidency. His image as the real power broker, from resolving the border conflict with Tajikistan to renaming his hometown Jalal-Abad to Manas, has been solidified. President Japarov would likely retain influence within a reconfigured leadership structure.” In Kazakhstan, meanwhile, administrative reshuffles have continued, drawing significant attention, particularly the replacement of Foreign Minister Murat Nurtleu with seasoned diplomat Yermek Kosherbayev. The change followed speculation in early September that Nurtleu had been detained by the National Security Committee, a claim that proved false but nevertheless added intrigue to his removal from the Foreign Ministry. He has since been appointed presidential aide for international investment and trade cooperation. Political analyst Daniyar Ashimbayev acknowledged that this role is technically a demotion but argued it still reflects political trust. “Tokayev doesn’t typically reappoint officials who have committed serious...

Politics

Uzbekistan and Ukraine Pledge to Strengthen Ties During UN Assembly Meeting

Uzbekistan’s Foreign Minister Bakhtiyor Saidov met with his Ukrainian counterpart Andrii Sybiha on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, Saidov announced via his official Telegram channel. According to Saidov, the ministers discussed a broad range of issues, including trade, investment, education, cultural exchange, and multilateral cooperation within international organizations. “Our meeting reaffirmed the mutual commitment of Uzbekistan and Ukraine to deepen dialogue, strengthen partnership, and explore new opportunities that will benefit our peoples,” Saidov wrote. Sybiha also confirmed the outcome of the talks on X, stating: “I was sincerely glad to meet with Bakhtiyor Saidov at UNGA. We agreed to resume political dialogue and enhance bilateral and multilateral cooperation in areas of mutual interest. Ukraine is committed to developing relations with Uzbekistan and strengthening ties with Central Asia.” The meeting took place amid recent reports in Ukrainian media that 13 Uzbek citizens had been subjected to forced labor at a greenhouse in the Kyiv region. Following these reports, officials from Uzbekistan’s embassy in Ukraine visited the site and later confirmed that the case was under full consular control. In response, the embassy issued official notes to Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry and Prosecutor General’s Office, demanding legal protection for the affected citizens. The embassy stated that a criminal case had been opened, suspects were facing trial, and measures were being taken to repatriate the workers. It emphasized that consular and legal support was ongoing, and that the rights and interests of Uzbek nationals remained a top priority.

Caspian Pipeline Consortium

Caspian Pipeline Attack After Zelenskyy-Tokayev Meeting Puts Kazakhstan in Delicate Position

A recent drone strike on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) office in Novorossiysk has raised concerns in Kazakhstan, whose oil exports rely heavily on the pipeline route. The attack, which killed two people and damaged nearby infrastructure, occurred just one day after Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in New York. While there is no official indication that the CPC was a deliberate target, the incident has prompted debate over the implications for Kazakhstan’s economic security and diplomatic neutrality amid the ongoing war. According to CPC, the attack struck its administrative office in central Novorossiysk during the workday. The building sustained damage in addition to nearby residential blocks and a hotel. Two CPC employees were wounded and evacuated; the office’s operations were suspended. The consortium also said others in the building, not employed by CPC, suffered serious injuries. Authorities in the Krasnodar region confirmed two deaths and seven injuries from the strike, declaring a state of emergency in the city. Russian media reported extensive damage to residential buildings and a hotel near the CPC office. In response, Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy issued a statement assuring that pipeline operations would continue as normal. The ministry said oil intake from Kazakh shippers remains unaffected, and the transportation and loading of oil via the CPC marine terminal is proceeding without restrictions. The ministry added that it is coordinating with CPC shareholders and monitoring developments in real time. Notably, the attack followed just 12 hours after Tokayev’s meeting with Zelenskyy in New York. According to the Kazakh presidential press service, Zelenskyy expressed his view of the war’s trajectory while Tokayev emphasized the importance of sustained diplomacy. Ukraine’s version, via its presidential press service, was more expansive: Zelenskyy thanked Tokayev for support on sovereignty, insisted on a leaders’ summit, and said Kazakhstan’s mediation role was welcome. In a later interview, Zelenskyy even floated the possibility of meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin on neutral territory such as Kazakhstan. When asked about that proposal after the Novorossiysk attack, Tokayev stated firmly that Kazakhstan does not see itself as a mediator in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. He reiterated that both sides should engage directly, while supporting continued talks. “Talks must continue,” he said. Kazakh political analyst Daniyar Ashimbayev noted that Tokayev’s extended commentary suggested he may feel less enthusiastic about a repeat meeting with Zelenskyy. Oil expert Olzhas Baidildinov stated that around 80 percent of Kazakhstan’s oil exports transit via the CPC; he therefore warned the strike directly threatens Astana’s interests. Baidildinov also suggested that Kazakhstan may need to consider a range of policy responses to ensure the security of its oil export routes, including enhanced monitoring of trade and transit channels. He noted that international companies operating in Kazakhstan, particularly those using the CPC pipeline, could be indirectly affected by any future disruptions. Kazakhstan’s Foreign Ministry has not issued a public statement on the incident. Meanwhile, diplomatic engagement continues at various levels. During his visit to New York, Tokayev also met with Chevron CEO Michael...

Kyrgyzstan Elections

Kyrgyz Parliament Votes to Dissolve; Preparations for Early Elections Begin

Deputies in Kyrgyzstan’s parliament voted on September 25 to dissolve parliament, paving the way for early elections that will be conducted under a revised electoral format later this year. Deputies voted 84-0 in favor of dissolving parliament. Five other deputies abstained from voting, and one MP was absent from the session. Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov now has five days to name the date for snap parliamentary elections, though speaker of parliament Nurlanbek Turgunbek uulu said he expects the date will be November 30. The move was expected as a group of deputies started collecting signatures earlier in September to introduce a motion on dissolving parliament. The chairman of Kyrgyzstan’s Central Election Commission (CEC), Tynchtykbek Shaynazarov, said in an interview on September 2 that the CEC is ready to conduct parliamentary elections this year, “if [parliament] takes the decision to dissolve itself.” Shaynazarov explained the reason for advancing elections by one year. “According to the law, and plans, the elections for deputies to the Jogorku Kenesh (Kyrgyzstan’s parliament) will take place in November 2026.” However, Shaynazarov said, “According to the constitutional regulations, the next presidential election is set for January 2027. If we have (parliamentary) elections… in November 2026, the CEC must release an official tally (of votes) within 20 days.” Shaynazarov continued, “Then there will be those who are dissatisfied with the elections and will file a lawsuit. Thus, the campaign for the election of deputies may drag on until December.” Shaynazarov pointed out this would overlap with campaigning for the presidential election. Member of Parliament Janar Akayev agreed the proximity of the two elections according to the current schedule could negatively impact the work of the CEC. Akayev also noted that Japarov signed a new law on procedures for electing parliamentary deputies in June this year. That law changed the mixed system of electing deputies Kyrgyzstan used in 2021, whereby 36 MPs were elected in single-mandate districts and 54 by party lists. In the next elections, all 90 deputies will be chosen in single-mandate districts. “Since current MPs support the transition to a new system, new elections should be held,” Akayev said. Kyrgyzstan’s early parliamentary elections, in 1995, 2000, and 2005, were conducted via single-mandate districts. Election by party lists was first used in the 2007 snap elections, and continued to be used in the 2010, 2015, and 2020 elections. The new regulations for parliamentary elections have negative and positive aspects. The non-refundable fee to seek a seat in parliament favors the wealthy. The fee for independent candidates to run remains at 100,000 Kyrgyz som (about $1,115), which is still a high price in a country where the average monthly salary is just a bit over 41,000 som. Political parties can still participate in elections but must pay 9 million som (almost $103,000). Currently six parties have seats in parliament, but 21 parties fielded candidates in the 2021 elections. The prohibitively high cost of registering will make it difficult for many people who aspire to a seat in parliament...

Politics

From Reform to Deals: Central Asia Steps Onto the Global Stage at UNGA-80

Ecology, global instability, and the need for UN reform dominated the speeches of all five Central Asian presidents at the 80th session of the UN General Assembly. Presenting a united front while emphasizing national priorities, the leaders made clear that Central Asia intends to play a pivotal role in shaping the global future. UN Reform Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev was the first among the CIS leaders to address the assembly, speaking of a growing crisis of trust in multilateral institutions and calling for sweeping reforms. Tokayev emphasized the need to expand the UN Security Council, arguing that major powers from Asia, Africa, and Latin America must receive rotational representation, and that the influence of middle powers should be strengthened. “We need to create a new group of like-minded states that will professionally and decisively advance concrete proposals for reforming the UN so that it better responds to today’s challenges and tomorrow’s tasks,” he said, proposing Kazakhstan as a platform for these discussions. Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev echoed these concerns, highlighting the weakening of international institutions and the proliferation of global conflicts. He endorsed UN Secretary-General António Guterres’ UN-80 initiative and voiced support for the Pact for the Future, which sets out commitments to strengthen multilateral cooperation and address global challenges through 2045, the UN’s centenary. Mirziyoyev also advocated for an expanded Security Council to better represent developing countries. In his address, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov called for a more just and representative Security Council, underscoring Africa’s right to greater participation. He also announced Kyrgyzstan’s candidacy for a non-permanent seat on the Security Council for 2027-2028, noting that his country has never before held such a position. Tajik President Emomali Rahmon warned of growing instability, uncertainty, and complexity in world affairs. Rahmon stressed the UN’s role as a platform for dialogue and cooperation and called for equal partnerships between large and small states to restore adherence to international law. Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedov argued that the current global situation requires a "decisive shift toward coordinated interaction among states and international organizations to maintain peace and security.” He proposed declaring 2028 the Year of International Law to strengthen the legal foundations of global cooperation. Ecology and Finance On environmental issues, the Central Asian leaders focused on national and regional concerns. Tokayev addressed the ongoing shallowing of the Caspian Sea, while both he and Mirziyoyev raised the issue of the Aral Sea crisis, often described as "one of the world’s worst environmental disasters." Rahmon highlighted the rapid disappearance of glaciers, a point supported by Japarov, given the critical dependence of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan on mountain water resources. Berdimuhamedov, meanwhile, proposed establishing a regional center for combating desertification in Central Asia. Other initiatives included the proposed Caspian Environmental Forum in 2026 and continued advancement of the Caspian Environmental Initiative, originally introduced by Ashgabat. Financial concerns were also prominent. Rahmon called for reforms to international financial mechanisms, citing the continued suffering of vulnerable developing countries from the impacts of economic crises, poverty, disease, natural disasters,...

Regional Influence

Opinion: Ex-U.S. Ambassador Warns Washington Has Ceded Information Space in Central Asia

Former U.S. Ambassador to Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, Daniel Rosenblum, has warned that Washington has “surrendered” its influence in Central Asia’s information sphere, allowing Russia and China to dominate the narrative. His remarks were reported by the Yale Daily News following a lecture at Yale University on September 15. Rosenblum, who served as U.S. ambassador to Uzbekistan from 2019 to 2022 and to Kazakhstan from 2022 to 2025, delivered a speech titled “Battling the Firehose of Falsehood: Confronting Russian Disinformation in Central Asia.” He described how Russian disinformation campaigns frequently portrayed U.S. diplomats as destabilizing actors. In one example from 2023, Russian outlets falsely claimed a NATO base had opened in Kazakhstan. “While it is easy to joke about such an absurd idea,” Rosenblum said, “the intent behind such Russian information operations is deadly serious.” Rosenblum noted that U.S. embassies attempted to counteract these narratives by highlighting tangible achievements, including COVID-19 health initiatives, agricultural partnerships, and academic exchange programs. However, he argued that much of this work has unraveled since 2023, citing the dismissal of over 1,300 State Department personnel, the elimination of USAID programs in the region, and recent cuts to Voice of America and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. “Eight months into the second Trump administration, it seems clear that the information war is over in Central Asia, not because the Russians won. We have simply surrendered,” he said. Rosenblum also emphasized China’s expanding influence through the Belt and Road Initiative, observing that Beijing “was doing a pretty good job of winning friends and influencing people” via infrastructure investment and cultural outreach. In a post-lecture interview, Rosenblum underscored that the challenge is now largely domestic. “The biggest challenge today is ourselves,” he said. “We have to decide as a country, do we want to be engaged in the world or not? If we cut ourselves off from the world, we will ultimately be less secure and less prosperous.” This concern was echoed in earlier analysis for The Times of Central Asia by Arman Amini, a term member of the Council on Foreign Relations and an Atlantic Council Millennium Fellow. “Over the past decade, China has steadily expanded its presence in Central Asia, not through military force, but by building roads, trade corridors, and digital infrastructure,” Amini noted. “As the United States scaled back its regional footprint following its withdrawal from Afghanistan, Beijing moved quickly to fill the void. Today, China has positioned itself as the region’s dominant external power, while the U.S. risks being left on the sidelines.” The lecture was attended by approximately 80 people in person and online. It was organized by the Central Asia Initiative of the MacMillan Center, the Edward J. and Dorothy Clarke Memorial Fund, and Asian Crossroads, a student group dedicated to raising awareness of Central Asia.