Power Shortage - The Times Of Central Asia

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Power Grid

Central Asia Electricity Demand Surges in Summer Power Reckoning

At 5:22 p.m. on July 20, after days of extreme heat, Uzbekistan's electricity system hit its highest load on record. Air conditioners were running on overdrive across the country as demand reached 14.2 gigawatts. Over the full day, consumers used 301.9 million kWh, almost 11% more than the previous year's summer peak. The pressure was visible elsewhere. In Kyrgyzstan, electricity consumption jumped 18% year-on-year on July 19. Parts of Bishkek and the Chui Region lost power for periods of up to two hours as operators tried to stop overloaded equipment from failing. In Almaty, where temperatures reached 40°C, 35 repair crews were deployed as record demand triggered faults across parts of the city's electricity network. Central Asia has spent years preparing for power shortages during freezing winters. July demonstrated that 40°C-plus summer days can now pose a different version of the same problem. The Demand Problem Governments across Central Asia have largely approached energy shortages from the supply side: more generation, new plants, stronger transmission, and greater investment. The summer peak exposed another weakness, however: demand is rising faster than many networks can comfortably absorb it. The pressure comes from new apartment blocks, shopping centers, construction sites, cooling systems, and the rapid spread of air conditioning. In Tashkent, Almaty, Bishkek, and other expanding cities, hotter summers also intensify the urban heat-island effect as concrete and glass retain heat and increase cooling demand. Much of the region's electricity infrastructure was built for a different pattern of consumption. That makes demand-side management increasingly important alongside new generation. Building another plant increases the amount of electricity available, but does little by itself to control when households and businesses consume it. Efficiency standards, more responsive tariffs, modern metering, and investment in distribution networks will become more important as peak demand rises. Four Systems, Shared Pressure Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan are not facing identical problems, but July highlighted a common vulnerability: electricity systems are being asked to meet demand patterns for which they were not originally designed. Kazakhstan is pursuing major long-term additions to generation. In May 2026, it signed a $16.5 billion agreement with Russia's Rosatom for its first nuclear power plant near Lake Balkhash. Construction is expected to begin in 2027, with the first reactor scheduled for commissioning in early 2034. For a coal-heavy system facing rising demand, the baseload argument is clear. But new capacity will take years to arrive. Tariff reform and modernization of existing infrastructure remain politically sensitive, especially if households are asked to pay more before improvements in reliability become visible. Uzbekistan is racing to add capacity, especially solar, in response to a rapidly growing population and dwindling gas reserves. Solar can reduce daytime strain and free gas for other uses, but it does not resolve the evening peak. Cooling demand can remain high after sunset, when solar output falls. Without sufficient storage, flexible backup generation, and stronger transmission and distribution networks, rapid additions of renewable capacity can coexist with local shortages and outages. Uzbekistan's July records underline the...

Oil Production

Oil Eclipse: Power Cuts Expose Fragility of Western Kazakhstan’s CPC-Linked Energy System

Production at the Tengiz oil field in Kazakhstan is set to resume, according to the Ministry of Energy, which has been monitoring the situation since January 18. The restart does not, however, represent a full return to pre-shutdown production levels. While the disruption had no immediate impact on global oil prices, which continued to decline at the time of the outage, it triggered widespread electricity restrictions across western Kazakhstan. On January 21, Brent crude futures fell by 79 cents (1.22%) to $64.13 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate dropped by 64 cents (1.06%) to $59.72 per barrel, Reuters reported. By then, production at Tengiz had already been suspended for three days, with sources indicating that the downtime would continue for another seven to ten days. From January 20, local authorities in Atyrau and Mangistau regions reported systemic electricity supply restrictions, including altered street-lighting schedules in Atyrau to conserve power, amid reduced gas deliveries to regional generators. The Ministry of Energy did not publicly respond to this until January 22, when, in a statement, it confirmed that gas turbine units at Tengiz were shut down on January 18. At the direction of Minister Erlan Akkenzhenov, his deputy was dispatched to oversee the situation on the ground. A special commission was established to investigate the incident, including representatives from the State Energy Supervision and Control Committee, the Atyrau Region Akimat’s Energy Department, KEGOC JSC, and Tengizchevroil LLP. No official explanation for the shutdown has yet been provided. However, some Kazakh energy experts have publicly speculated about a possible link to recent Ukrainian drone attacks on the infrastructure of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which plays a vital role in exporting Kazakh oil. Oil and gas analyst Olzhas Baidildinov drew a connection between the attacks and cascading effects on domestic energy supply: “They hit the CPC; exports declined, followed by oil production. Gas production declined along with oil. Gas is essential for electricity generation in western Kazakhstan,” he said. Baidildinov added that imported gas and electricity from Russia helped prevent more severe outages, though the energy crunch underscores longstanding vulnerabilities in Kazakhstan’s infrastructure. Baidildinov also referred to recent criticism from President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, who at the 5th session of the National Kurultai voiced dissatisfaction with the energy sector, signaling potential personnel changes. On January 26, the Ministry of Energy announced that production at Tengiz would restart “in the near future,” and, at 4 a.m., the second-generation plant resumed operations, initiating raw material flows from the Royal field. “The current flow to the ZVP is 2,500 tons per day. Specialists are systematically increasing the supply of multiphase flow (oil and gas) to reach design capacity. At Tengiz, all technical and human resources have been mobilized to inspect energy facilities and power distribution systems,” the ministry stated. Officials emphasized that restoration efforts are under constant oversight. “TCO remains committed to ensuring reliable production and will increase volumes in stages, as infrastructure readiness and safety have been confirmed.” While the ministry has yet to publicly acknowledge...

Electricity supply

Uzbekistan Announces New Electricity Rationing Amid Power Shortages

Uzbekistan has announced a new electricity rationing schedule as power shortages strain the national grid. The Ministry of Energy said temporary evening outages would help stabilize supply while repairs and emergency measures continue. The outages, which began this week, are concentrated during peak hours between 5:00 p.m. and 9:00 p.m. and are expected to last until mid-January. Causes of the Shortfall The crisis stems from a major failure at the Syrdarya thermal power plant, one of the country’s largest. A newly installed Mitsubishi gas turbine suffered a mechanical fault in late November, forcing the station to shut down part of its capacity. A replacement 114-ton rotor was delivered by air on December 8, and engineers expect to finish installation and testing in four weeks. Seasonal factors have also reduced the available power supply. With winter’s shorter daylight hours, output from solar stations has dropped significantly, increasing the load on the grid. An unexpected gas supply disruption has further strained generation: Energy Minister Jurabek Mirzamakhmudov revealed that an accident in a neighboring country’s network cut Uzbekistan’s gas intake by about 6 million cubic meters per day. Natural gas fuels a large share of the country’s power plants, so this drop in fuel supply, combined with cloudy weather, has constrained electricity production. “Because of rain, there was neither wind nor sun,” Mirzamakhmudov said. These factors combined have left the grid struggling to meet peak demand in early December. Peak-Hour Outages to Balance Demand Officials have emphasized that rolling blackouts will be kept brief and targeted; each outage is not expected to last more than about two hours, and consumers will be notified in advance whenever possible. By shedding some load at peak times, the grid can avoid more dangerous unplanned breakdowns and ensure critical facilities remain powered. Residents have also been urged to use electricity sparingly and to monitor official announcements, rather than panic if an interruption occurs. The Energy Ministry has stressed that rumors of any nationwide “blackout” are unfounded, and any power cuts will be localized and limited in scope, not a return to the wide-ranging outages seen in the past. Citizens have been cautioned against spreading unverified information on social media and encouraged to rely on updates from authorities. Winter Energy Challenges and Reforms Winter months have historically tested Uzbekistan’s energy infrastructure. In previous years, electricity deficits forced scheduled outages – commonly known as rolling blackouts – across the country. However, officials note that the situation has improved markedly due to new power projects and efficiency measures. According to Energy Ministry data, the volume of electricity consumption that had to be curtailed through such restrictions fell from about 4 billion kWh in 2013 to just 357 million kWh in 2024. Even during the Central Asian energy crisis of winter 2022, Uzbekistan’s forced power cuts totaled around 2 billion kWh, a figure that has since sharply declined as new capacity comes online. Uzbekistan has been racing to expand its electricity generation to meet growing demand and reduce chronic winter shortages....

Nuclear Energy

From Gas to Gigawatts: Uzbekistan Powers Ahead with Dual Nuclear Deal

Uzbekistan has confirmed it will be building a large nuclear power plant (NPP) with two 1000-megawatt (MW) reactors as the country prepares for a sharp increase in electricity consumption in the coming years. Uzbekistan’s state atomic energy company, Uzatom, posted on September 26 that a new agreement calls for both a large and small NPP to be constructed at the same site in Uzbekistan. The revised plan for NPPs in Uzbekistan combines agreements the country signed with the Russian state nuclear company Rosatom in 2018 and 2024. Uzbek Prime Minister Abdullo Aripov and his Russian counterpart at the time, Dmitri Medvedev, signed a deal in September 2018 for a large NPP with two VVER-1200 reactors. However, in late May 2024, during Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Uzbekistan, a new agreement was signed for six small reactors, each with a capacity of 55 MW. Preparation work for six RITM-200N reactors started shortly after in the Farish district of Jizzakh Province. In June 2025, Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development said the agreement was restructured. The latest official agreement, signed September 26, 2025, commits to building an integrated NPP with two large VVER-1000 reactors and two small modular RITM-200N units. The Farish facility will be the first to house both a large and a small NPP at the same site. Speaking on the sidelines of the World Nuclear Week conference in Moscow on September 25, Uzatom director Azim Akhmedkhadjaev said, “We are the first in Central Asia to create an innovative solution for the future… (a) project combining advanced small modular reactor technology with time-tested solutions from large-scale nuclear energy.” The new agreement calls for the construction of two VVER-1000 units instead of the original VVER-1200 models. There was no explanation for the change in the type of reactors for the Uzbek facility. Uzbek Deputy Prime Minister Jamshid Khodjaev was also at the conference in Moscow. Hojayev noted Uzbekistan is seeking to increase renewable energy sources so that by 2030, these sources will produce more than 40% of Uzbekistan’s energy. Khodjaev pointed to solar and wind projects in explaining why the small NPPs are necessary. “Large blocks (reactors) provide stable baseload generation, while small blocks cover peak loads and balance the erratic operation of solar and wind farms,” according to Khodjaev. Essentially, the smaller reactors will help ensure a constant flow of electricity into the domestic grid when there is insufficient wind or sun to keep wind farms and solar power stations operating at full capacity. As Much as Possible and More Khodjaev has said that when both the large and small NPPs are operational in 2035, it will add some 15-billion-kilowatt hours (kWh) to Uzbekistan’s power grid. Electricity production in Uzbekistan has risen from some 59 billion kWh in 2016 to about 81.5 billion kWh in 2024. A relatively small percentage of that is exported to neighbors. A recent agreement with Kazakhstan calls for sending some 900 million kWh of Uzbek electricity to its northern neighbor between March and December 2026....

Power Shortage

Kyrgyz Energy Minister Warns of Imminent Winter Power Shortages

Kyrgyzstan’s Energy Minister Taalaibek Ibraev has warned that the upcoming winter will be one of the most difficult in recent memory, with the country facing significant electricity shortages due to critically low water levels at the Toktogul Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP) reservoir. Toktogul is Kyrgyzstan’s largest energy facility, generating approximately 40% of the country’s electricity. According to Ibraev, the Toktogul reservoir currently holds 10.8 billion cubic meters of water, 1.6 billion cubic meters less than in 2024, when levels were already deemed critically low at 12.4 billion cubic meters. The “dead water level,” at which the turbines can no longer operate, is 6.5 billion cubic meters. Kyrgyzstan has struggled with persistent electricity deficits in recent years, particularly during winter when demand spikes as households depend heavily on electricity for heating. In 2024, national consumption reached 18.3 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 1.1 billion kWh over 2023. To cover the shortfall, Kyrgyzstan imported 3.6 billion kWh from Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Russia. Ibraev urged citizens to conserve electricity and stressed that Kyrgyzstan aims to overcome its energy crisis by 2028. A key pillar of this strategy is the construction of the Kambarata-1 HPP, which is set to become the largest hydroelectric facility in Central Asia. With a planned capacity of 1,860 megawatts and an average annual generation of 5.6 billion kWh, the project is expected to significantly enhance long-term energy security. In the short term, Kyrgyzstan is banking on regional cooperation. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan have all signed an agreement on coordinated water and energy management. Under the agreement, Kyrgyzstan will release water from Toktogul for irrigation needs in downstream Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, while receiving electricity supplies from both countries through spring 2026. The Toktogul HPP serves a dual purpose: generating electricity for domestic use and regulating water flows for agriculture in neighboring states. In winter, higher hydropower output to meet heating demand often lowers reservoir levels, threatening irrigation supplies in spring. The trilateral agreement is intended to reduce this risk by enabling Kyrgyzstan to conserve water while ensuring essential electricity imports during peak consumption periods.

Cryptocurrency

Kazakhstan Sets Sights on Becoming Central Asia’s Blockchain Hub

Kazakhstan is accelerating its efforts to become a regional leader in blockchain and cryptocurrency. Among its latest initiatives is a proposal by the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) to establish a state crypto reserve. National Strategy and Regulatory Evolution The NBK recently endorsed the idea of forming a national reserve of crypto assets. This was confirmed in an official response from NBK Chairman Timur Suleimenov to a parliamentary inquiry. The proposal includes creating the reserve through a subsidiary of the NBK focused on alternative investments. Mirroring practices in countries such as the United States, the reserve could be composed of confiscated crypto assets and cryptocurrencies mined with state involvement. Legislative amendments to support this move are expected. In January, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev underscored the urgency of developing Kazakhstan’s crypto infrastructure, citing a global shift toward digital assets. Tokayev emphasized the need for a comprehensive national strategy to meet emerging challenges. Currently, legal cryptocurrency transactions in Kazakhstan can only occur via exchanges operating under the Astana International Financial Center (AIFC). Registered participants include major platforms such as Binance and Bybit. Expanding Infrastructure and Innovation The government is also considering the creation of crypto banks, which would regulate the digital asset market, facilitate storage and transactions, and boost the financial ecosystem. These institutions are seen as critical to fostering IT sector growth and blockchain compliance jobs. There are also plans to establish a licensed national cryptocurrency exchange that would operate nationwide beyond the AIFC. In May, Kazakhstan announced the launch of a special CryptoCity zone to pilot cryptocurrency-based payments for goods and services. The following month, five banks, Halyk Bank, Forte, Freedom, RBK, and Altyn, joined a NBK pilot program to introduce crypto cards. These cards, linked to wallets on AIFC-registered exchanges, allow for the real-time conversion of crypto into tenge for payments and cash withdrawals, including at physical retail terminals. Mining: Prospects and Pressure Kazakhstan has had a complex relationship with cryptocurrency mining. Between mid-2021 and early 2022, the country ranked third globally in Bitcoin mining, driven by low energy costs and an influx of miners from China. At its peak in January 2022, Kazakhstan accounted for 13.22% of global mining power. However, the surge in mining led to severe energy shortages. While enthusiasm for mining has returned, President Tokayev called in March 2025 for renewed investment in digital mining infrastructure. First Deputy Minister of Digital Development Kanysh Tuleushin has championed state-regulated mining as a potential revenue source and a catalyst for modernizing the energy grid. He pointed to models such as the U.S., where miners help balance grid loads, and to Kazakhstan’s “70/30” initiative, which allocates 30% of newly modernized thermal power plant capacity to miners and 70% to the national grid. Tuleushin also emphasized the potential for repurposing associated petroleum gas to generate mining power, thereby reducing emissions and monetizing a previously wasted resource. He argued that legalizing crypto activity nationwide could transform Kazakhstan into Central Asia’s crypto leader, on par with emerging markets in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. Energy...