Kazakhstan: Smells like election spirit
ASTANA (TCA) — State power succession is becoming an even more relevant issue in Kazakhstan, and analysts say the country may have an early presidential election next spring. We are republishing this article on the issue, originally published by Eurasianet: A little over a year ago, the president of Kazakhstan was instructing the government to hike electricity, heat and water bills. It seemed like a politically awkward proposal, but speaking before lawmakers last September, Nursultan Nazarbayev brushed off concerns, saying the measure would “not be such a big deal.” “We have the cheapest electricity in the whole post-Soviet space,” he said, arguing that allowing utility prices to rise gradually would attract foreign investors. Nazarbayev has since changed his tune. In a recent meeting with top security officials, the president grumbled volubly about his own policy. “Public discussions about planned tariff [changes] are either not happening at all or just take place in a formal manner,” he fumed to the Security Council on November 7. This and other populist messaging from Nazarbayev has analysts scratching their chins and wondering whether important political developments are around the corner. Kazbek Beisebayev, a retired veteran diplomat, told Eurasianet that he believes the whiff of elections are in the air. He was particularly struck by the choice of the Security Council as a venue in which to discuss utility tariffs. “These are everyday problems and not something to be dealt with at the level of the Security Council,” Beisebayev said. The proliferation of consensus-seeking measures coming from the government – and Nazarbayev more specifically – suggest something is afoot. Beisebayev pointed to the planned increase from January of salaries for state employees, the hike to the minimum wage and the authorities’ efforts to tamp down food prices as other examples. “Usually such measures are taken before parliamentary and presidential elections. The government uses such policies to instill a good mood about the current government,” Beisebayev said. The consensus in some quarters is that early elections next year, possibly in spring, are likely. But it is not clear what the public might be asked to vote for. According to the current schedule, elections for parliament’s lower house, the Majlis, are due in 2021, while Nazarbayev’s current five-year term expires in 2020. Nazarbayev is the 10-ton elephant in the room of any political discussion in Kazakhstan. At the age of 78, the president, who has been ruling his country for more than a quarter-century, is reaching a degree of senescence that is sharpening ever-present thoughts of transition. Political analyst Aidos Sarym told Eurasianet that the nation’s leadership is eager to get a sense of what lies on the horizon. Economic growth is, as ever, heavily dependent on oil prices, which saw a strong recovery earlier this year, only to slump deeply again in recent weeks. Nazarbayev and his ruling Nur Otan party will always win crushing electoral victories, because they have all the levers of influence and machinery of public administration in their hands – what post-Soviet...
