U.S.-Kazakhstan Relations - The Times Of Central Asia

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U.S.-Kazakhstan Relations

Rubio and Kosherbayev Discuss CPC Ahead of Tokayev’s U.S. Visit

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio held a telephone conversation with Kazakhstan’s Foreign Minister Yermek Kosherbayev on 29 July. The discussion focused on the situation surrounding the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, energy cooperation, critical minerals, trade and investment ties, and current international issues. According to the U.S. Department of State, Rubio and Kosherbayev discussed the importance of energy security, including the “reliable and uninterrupted” export of Kazakhstan-origin oil through the CPC system. Rubio also thanked Kazakhstan for supporting President Donald Trump’s peace initiatives and expressed interest in deepening bilateral economic cooperation. Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the two ministers discussed in detail the situation surrounding the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, cooperation in the energy, transport and logistics sectors, supplies of critical minerals, efforts to attract U.S. investment, and coordination in international organisations. The ministry said the conversation also covered preparations for President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s forthcoming visit to the United States for the G20 summit. The telephone call took place shortly after Kazakhstan resumed crude oil exports through the CPC system. The pipeline carries the vast majority of crude exports from the Tengiz oilfield, whose largest shareholders include the U.S. companies Chevron and ExxonMobil. Kazakhstan’s Foreign Ministry said the two ministers reaffirmed their commitment to maintaining regular political dialogue. The conversation followed President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s meeting with U.S. Senator Steve Daines on 8 July, when the two sides discussed expanding trade and economic cooperation, attracting investment and strengthening cooperation in the energy sector. On 28 July, The Times of Central Asia reported that Kazakhstan had resumed oil exports through the CPC system after a week-long disruption at the consortium’s Black Sea marine terminal near Novorossiysk. The interruption more than halved oil production at Tengiz and again highlighted Kazakhstan’s dependence on its principal oil export route.

U.S. Tariffs

U.S. Imposes 12.5% Tariff on Kazakhstan Over Third-Country Import Controls

Kazakhstan is the only Central Asian economy included in a new U.S. tariff action covering 60 trading partners. An additional tariff of 12.5% has been imposed on a range of Kazakh goods, excluding products listed in the annexes to the final decision. The rate applies to goods entered for consumption in the United States from July 24, 2026. Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Trade and Integration said about 95% of the country’s exports to the United States would remain outside the measure because of the exemptions. It also said the new tariff replaces an expired temporary 10% surcharge and will not be added to it. Kazakhstan already prohibits forced labor in domestic employment under Article 7 of its Labor Code. The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) did not allege that Kazakh exporters use forced labor. Its finding concerned a separate gap: Kazakhstan lacks a customs prohibition capable of excluding foreign goods produced wholly or partly with forced labor. The investigation was launched in March under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, a mechanism that allows Washington to respond to foreign practices it considers discriminatory or restrictive to U.S. commerce. In June, USTR concluded that the policies of all 60 economies under review warranted action. The final decision followed more than 1,600 written comments and testimony from over 100 witnesses. Most of the economies were divided into two rate groups, while the European Union, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and Switzerland received special treatment linked to existing most-favored-nation tariffs. This was not a Kazakhstan-specific finding. USTR identified the same deficiency in 53 other economies, including Australia, Japan, Norway, Singapore, and South Korea. Together, the 60 economies under investigation accounted for 99.4% of U.S. imports. A 10% tariff was imposed on countries that had introduced at least a partial ban on imports associated with forced labor or made corresponding commitments to Washington. Kazakhstan was placed in the 12.5% category alongside Australia, Israel, New Zealand, Norway, Singapore, the United Arab Emirates, and several other U.S. trading partners, as well as China and Russia. The immediate cost to Kazakhstan will depend largely on the scope of the exemptions. Washington exempted raw materials where tariffs could leave the U.S. market without sufficient domestic supply, products whose higher cost could cause wider economic disruption, and goods that the United States cannot produce in sufficient quantities or obtain elsewhere. The 12.5% rate therefore does not mean that all Kazakh exports will become more expensive in the American market. The structure of bilateral trade further limits the likely damage. Kazakhstan’s exports to the United States are concentrated in commodities, particularly oil, uranium, metals, and semi-processed materials. Many serve U.S. energy and industrial needs. The Kazakh government’s estimate that about 95% of exports remain exempt indicates that the largest trade flows should avoid the additional tariff, although the U.S. notice does not provide a Kazakhstan-specific calculation. According to U.S. figures, goods trade between the two countries reached $5 billion in 2025. U.S. imports from Kazakhstan rose by 73%...

U.S.-Kazakhstan Relations

U.S. Business Push in Central Asia Moves From Dialogue to Deals

The pace of U.S. commercial engagement in Central Asia has quickened in recent weeks, with business delegations, export-finance officials, and sector-specific agreements appearing across the region. In June, a U.S. business delegation discussed investment opportunities in Turkmenistan, while Assistant Secretary of Commerce and Director General of the U.S. and Foreign Commercial Service David L. Fogel used the Astana Mining and Metallurgy Congress to press for practical cooperation in critical minerals. That same month, the Tashkent International Investment Forum drew John Jovanovic, president and chairman of the Export-Import Bank of the United States, and Ben Black, chief executive officer of the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation. Kazakhstan and U.S. companies signed artificial intelligence agreements worth $10 billion, Uzbekistan agreed to reduce tariffs on a range of U.S. goods, and Kyrgyzstan’s Civil Aviation Agency held talks with U.S. Ambassador Leslie Viguerie on aviation cooperation. Taken together, these moves suggest a change in tone. Washington’s regional agenda is increasingly being expressed through commercial missions, project finance, technology partnerships, and trade mechanisms rather than broad diplomatic declarations. The shift from diplomacy to deals is becoming visible in several capitals at once. [caption id="attachment_51210" align="aligncenter" width="1280"] Image: The Republic of Kazakhstan – the United States of America roundtable[/caption] Against that background, a roundtable titled “The Republic of Kazakhstan - the United States of America” was held in Astana on June 30. It was organized by Atameken National Chamber of Entrepreneurs, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, and the Chamber of Commerce of Kazakhstan. The U.S. delegation was led by Khush Choksy, senior vice president for international member relations at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, who oversees programs in the Middle East, Türkiye, and Central Asia. The Kazakh delegation was led by Ambassador Yerzhan Kazykhan, Kazakhstan’s presidential representative for negotiations with the United States. For Choksy, the visit continued a longer push by the U.S. Chamber. He visited Kazakhstan in 2023 and 2025, and has repeatedly described the country as a strong platform for American business. Yet trade remains modest compared with the political ambition attached to the relationship. According to Kazakh government data, bilateral trade between Kazakhstan and the U.S. reached $3.19 billion in 2025, while USTR estimates U.S. goods trade with Kazakhstan at $5 billion. U.S. goods trade with Uzbekistan, the region’s most populous country, was just over $1 billion in 2025. The figures underline the gap between strategic interest and commercial scale. The reasons for this are not limited to distance. Disrupted logistics, sanctions risks linked to Russia’s war in Ukraine, and instability in parts of the Middle East have complicated long-distance trade. The Jackson-Vanik amendment, adopted in 1974, also remains formally applicable to Kazakhstan despite repeated efforts in Washington to repeal it and grant the country permanent normal trade relations status. The Astana roundtable brought together government agencies, companies, international corporations, financial institutions, and policy experts. Participants discussed investment cooperation, energy, digital transformation, infrastructure, innovation, transport, and logistics. B2B meetings were also held, along with meetings between U.S. companies and Kazakh ministries and...

Pax Silica

Kazakhstan’s Pax Silica Accession Bodes Well for Foreign Investment

Kazakhstan’s accession to Pax Silica is more than a diplomatic ribbon-cutting. It is an investment signal. By joining an initiative supported by the United States and built around trusted supply chains for the new artificial intelligence economy, Kazakhstan has placed itself inside one of the most important emerging conversations in global industry about who will supply the minerals, energy, computing infrastructure, data centers, talent and manufacturing capacity behind the AI boom. Kazakhstan’s official readout was explicit about that ambition. Pax Silica, it said, brings partner countries together around artificial intelligence, critical minerals, semiconductors, data centers, energy infrastructure, high-tech manufacturing, research and talent development. Kazakhstan became the first country from its region to join, with Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Development Zhaslan Madiyev signing the accession declaration and the AI Opportunity Partnership statement in Washington on June 25. “Behind every AI solution are energy, critical minerals, computing capacity, data centers, semiconductors, engineering talent, and secure supply chains,” Madiyev said. Pax Silica is a supply-chain coalition whereby each participant brings a piece of the AI industrial base such as chips, energy, minerals, capital, cloud infrastructure, advanced manufacturing, regulatory alignment or technical talent. Reuters has described the initiative as a U.S.-led effort to secure the supply chains behind artificial intelligence, from energy and critical minerals to high-end manufacturing and AI models. Kazakhstan’s inclusion demonstrates that the country is being viewed as a potentially significant node in the physical infrastructure of the AI economy. Why Kazakhstan Fits the Pax Silica Map Kazakhstan has existing relevance in the AI supply chain as well as the capability to expand that role. That helps explain why Kazakhstan, rather than another regional state, became the first Central Asian node to plug into Pax Silica’s trusted supply-chain architecture. The U.S. International Trade Administration says Kazakhstan has substantial reserves of rare earth elements, copper, lithium, tungsten, tantalum and other materials essential for modern technologies and the energy transition. It also notes that the country’s policy focus is shifting from raw-material exports toward value-added processing and downstream production. With regard to the energy feedstock needed to power AI data centers, Kazakhstan has been the world’s leading uranium producer since 2009 and produced about 40% of global output in 2025. Nuclear energy is returning to the strategic conversation as governments and companies look for firm, low-carbon electricity. Kazakhstan also has a proven record as a resource partner for the U.S. and the West. U.S. energy majors helped build Kazakhstan’s modern oil sector, with Chevron beginning production from a $48 billion expansion of the Tengiz oilfield in 2025. In aerospace, Kazakhstan’s Ust-Kamenogorsk Titanium and Magnesium Plant supplies major global manufacturers, including Boeing and Airbus, and officials say titanium from Kazakhstan accounts for roughly one-fifth of the global aerospace titanium market. A New Layer in U.S.-Kazakhstan Alignment Pax Silica also follows a warming trend in U.S.-Kazakhstan relations under the Trump administration. Tokayev has already framed Kazakhstan as an active participant in several U.S.-backed initiatives, including the Abraham Accords, the...

AMM 2026

U.S. Investors Show Growing Interest in Kazakhstan’s Mining Sector

U.S. investors are showing growing interest in Kazakhstan’s critical minerals sector, with attention increasingly focused not only on extraction but also on processing, metallurgy and broader supply-chain development, according to Nicole Rodgers, president of the U.S.-based Alliance for Mineral Security, an industry group representing companies involved in mining, processing and the use of strategic minerals. Rodgers spoke during the panel session “Investment Climate in Mining and Metallurgy” at the Astana Mining & Metallurgy Congress, AMM 2026, where she emphasized that predictability and regulatory consistency are among the most important conditions for attracting global capital. “In our view, Kazakhstan is moving in the right direction, including by harmonizing regulations with international standards, developing early-stage geological exploration, building industrial clusters and moving toward more sophisticated investment structures,” Rodgers said. “At the same time, American investors are interested not only in extraction, but in participating across the entire value chain.” She pointed to an agreement between U.S.-based Cove Capital and Kazakhstan’s national mining company Tau-Ken Samruk on the joint development of the Severny Katpar and Verkhne Kairakty tungsten deposits in the Karaganda region of central Kazakhstan. Under the deal, the investment package includes plans to build two processing plants and a metallurgical facility, with a total projected value of $1.1 billion. Interest from Washington has also been reinforced at the political level. Speaking at the C5+1 Critical Minerals Dialogue in June, U.S. Special Envoy for South and Central Asia Sergio Gor said Washington intended to play an active role in developing Central Asia’s mining sectors. “Interest in Kazakhstan from American investors is high, but for that interest to materialize in practice, infrastructure, energy capacity and skilled personnel are critical,” Rodgers added. While foreign interest is rising, industry representatives said Kazakhstan’s ability to convert that interest into long-term investment will depend on the consistency of its legal and regulatory framework. Nikolai Radostovets, executive director of the Republican Association of Mining and Metallurgical Enterprises, said amendments to Kazakhstan’s Subsoil Code, adopted in 2018, should now be aligned with changes in environmental, water and land legislation introduced in recent years. Ruslan Baimishev, president of the Kazakhstan Mining Chamber, also highlighted the importance of legislative stability, particularly in tax policy, saying investors require consistency in government decisions. World Bank Senior Mining Specialist Remy Pelon said many countries are reforming their mining sectors to meet growing demand for minerals needed for the global energy transition. At the same time, Pelon warned against overcorrection. “Governments must create conditions for the efficient use of mineral resources in the interests of national development, but it is equally important to preserve a balance between industrial policy, openness to new market players and competitiveness,” he said. “That balance is especially important for countries aiming not only to extract raw materials, but also to develop processing, local manufacturing and technological expertise.” Kazakh officials used the forum to underscore recent legal measures designed to improve investor protections. Arman Khassenov, deputy chairman of the Committee for the Protection of Investors’ Rights under the Prosecutor General’s Office,...

U.S.-Kazakhstan Relations

Kazakhstan Central Bank Chief Eyes Deeper U.S. Investment Links

Addressing senior executives from more than a dozen Fortune 100 companies active in Kazakhstan at a U.S. Chamber of Commerce-hosted event in Washington, D.C., on April 14, Timur Suleimenov, Governor of the National Bank of Kazakhstan, laid out the country’s economic outlook and later spoke with The Times of Central Asia on a range of related issues. He was accompanied by Erzhan Kazykhan, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s Special Representative for Negotiations with the United States, Deputy Foreign Minister Alibek Kuantyrov, and Kazakhstan’s Ambassador to the United States, Magzhan Ilyassov. [caption id="attachment_47306" align="aligncenter" width="1536"] Timur Suleimenov, Governor of the National Bank of Kazakhstan, with Javier Piedra[/caption] Kazakhstan’s U.S. Financial Stakes Amid Growth and Inflation Suleimenov offered a compelling case for Kazakhstan’s economy, citing steady growth, higher investment flows, and a deepening consumer market. Kazakhstan’s economy expanded 6.5% in 2025, marking a third straight year of growth above 5%. GDP per capita surpassed $15,000 – compared to approximately $3,162 in Uzbekistan and about $2,420 in Kyrgyzstan. Fixed-income investments rose 15% year-on-year, and foreign direct investment climbed to 20.5% (from 14.5%), broadening beyond oil. Suleimenov emphasized the Central Bank’s strong stewardship, citing a new tax and budget code to enhance fiscal discipline and monetary policy that supports investment, stressing that, “We will deal with inflation pressures and external shocks simultaneously while managing cryptocurrencies and private digital payments systems, which can weaken central bank control over money and policy transmission. The markets suggest that we have been doing an excellent job in a complex environment.” The government, Suleimenov said, is on track to consolidate the budget, with the deficit projected at 2.5% this year, 1.7% next year, and 0.9% by 2028, adding that this will strengthen fiscal-monetary coordination, and noting Kazakhstan’s debt-to-GDP ratio of 24% remains low compared with countries such as the United States (125%), Japan (230%), Italy (137%). As inflation declined to 11% in March 2026 from 11.7% the previous month, Suleimenov reassured TCA that officials regard it as transitory, saying that “inflation was driven by resilient domestic demand backed by fiscal and quasi-fiscal stimulation, external price pressures (Russian inflation, global food prices), increasing regulated prices (utilities and fuel), and tax reform (a VAT increase from 12% to 16%), with volatile and elevated inflation expectations. For these reasons, we responded with rate hikes and liquidity tightening, bringing inflation down to about 11%, with a further easing expected to single digits by the end of this year.” Suleimenov reaffirmed that “the United States is integral to Kazakhstan’s financial system and long-term asset strategy.” He noted that Kazakhstan manages approximately $190 billion in long-term assets, including some $75 billion in National Bank reserves, $60 billion in the National Fund, and $55 billion in the unified pension fund. Around one-third of these assets are invested in U.S. securities, while roughly $50 billion is managed by American firms, underscoring deep financial ties beyond industrial investment. TCA asked how U.S. sanctions and export controls affect Kazakhstan, a concern that was especially acute in the initial stages of the Russo-Ukrainian...