Regional Security - The Times Of Central Asia

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CSTO

CSTO to Strengthen Tajik-Afghan Border in 2025

The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) will begin implementing a program to reinforce the Tajik-Afghan border in 2025, CSTO Secretary General Imangali Tasmagambetov announced during a meeting in Moscow on Thursday, according to Interfax. Tasmagambetov explained that the program outlines concrete measures to enhance security along the southern boundary of the CSTO’s area of responsibility. This announcement was made during a meeting reviewing the CSTO secretariat’s and joint staff’s activities in 2024, as well as outlining objectives for 2025. The meeting was attended by Andrei Serdyukov, head of the CSTO joint staff. In 2024, the CSTO finalized and signed agreements related to equipping its collective forces with modern weapons and military equipment. The organization also conducted joint operational and combat training exercises and actively collaborated with international organizations. As it looks ahead to 2025, the CSTO is drafting an action plan to focus on key priorities, including securing the Tajik-Afghan border, which has long been a source of concern for member states. The organization includes six member countries: Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, though in December 2024, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that his country’s relations with the CSTO have passed the “point of no return.” The Shamsiddin Shokhin section of the Tajik-Afghan border, spanning more than 100 kilometers, has been particularly problematic for years. This area has witnessed numerous security incidents, including hostage-taking and attacks on Tajik citizens and military personnel. The CSTO’s planned measures aim to address these challenges and bolster the security of this vulnerable region. By strengthening border security, the organization is seeking to reduce the risks posed by cross-border threats, including illegal trafficking and extremist activity.

Afghanistan

Afghanistan as Part of Central Asia: Expectations, Reality, Challenges, and Threats

Afghanistan has increasingly been regarded in expert and journalistic circles as part of Central Asia, which is justifiable from a physical-geographical perspective. However, given current regional realities, it is still premature to classify the country as part of Central Asia in terms of being internationally recognized as such. The outcome of the 19th-century rivalry between the British and Russian Empires for influence in Central Asia, known as the "Great Game," not only established the modern southern borders of the region but also set Afghanistan and its northern neighbors on entirely different social and historical paths. The countries differ in value systems, ideologies, public consciousness, and, of course, economic development. At the same time, experts from the Russian Institute for Central Asian Studies note that "In the early 21st century, approaches to analyzing regional realities shifted towards geo-economics. The spatial dimension of Central Asia began to be seen as a zone for pipeline transit." This perspective is hard to argue against — Afghanistan’s current geopolitical interests and challenges are largely tied to the economic interests of countries at the regional level. This includes India, Iran, China, the UAE, Pakistan, Russia, Turkey, and the Central Asian states, for whom Afghanistan's prospects are evident. Chiefly, these prospects concern its transit potential as a territory connecting various parts of Asia. Four out of the six logistics corridors under the Asian Development Bank’s Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Program (CAREC) pass through Afghanistan into Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. Other relevant projects include the "China–Pakistan Economic Corridor" under the "One Belt One Road" initiative, the "Trans-Afghan Corridor," and the TAPI Gas Pipeline. However, Afghanistan's current situation, particularly given the stagnant Afghan-Pakistani conflict, casts doubt on the feasibility of these and other major projects involving Afghanistan. As previously stated by TCA, the future of these large-scale projects involving Central Asian countries, as well as regional stability, a fundamental condition for steady economic development, depends directly on whether an understanding is reached between these two nations. Thus, a geo-economic approach to redefining Central Asia’s new boundaries still requires a different reality. Meanwhile, within Central Asia itself, there is little enthusiasm for political rapprochement with Taliban-ruled Afghanistan. The primary focus is on trade/economic and humanitarian cooperation, with no broader agenda, particularly at a regional level. Tajikistan’s position is significant here, as its authorities continue to view the Taliban as a threat and tread cautiously in building relations with them. What Prevents Central Asian Countries from Accelerating Relations with Afghanistan? The answers lie not only in different developmental trajectories and scenarios. First and foremost, Afghanistan is still associated with "uncertainty" and numerous risks, particularly in terms of security. According to many assessments, the Afghan-Pakistani zone will, in the long term, remain a source of terrorist and religious-extremist threats to Central Asia. These conclusions are based on a retrospective analysis of escalating tensions, current processes in Afghanistan, and the geopolitical confrontation of global powers in the area. For example, the Soviet invasion in 1979 fostered the consolidation of the Afghan mujahideen,...

Syria

Central Asia Leads in Repatriating Citizens from Syrian Camps

Central Asian governments are at the forefront of efforts to repatriate their citizens from camps in northeastern Syria, according to Khalid Koser, head of the Global Community Engagement and Resilience Fund (GCERF). In an interview with RIA Novosti, Koser highlighted that, unlike European nations, Central Asian states have taken responsibility for their nationals. GCERF is an international organization supporting local initiatives to prevent extremism and violence by fostering partnerships between governments, civil society, and the private sector. Koser noted that approximately 2,200 Central Asian citizens have been repatriated from these camps. Kazakhstan has brought back 754 individuals, Kyrgyzstan 533, Tajikistan 381, and Uzbekistan 531. By contrast, Koser criticized European nations for neglecting their citizens in the camps. “Tajikistan says, ‘These are our citizens, and we are responsible for them,’” Koser stated. “Meanwhile, Western Europe hopes the problem will disappear, leaving people to die in camps.” The head of GCERF also pointed out the challenges of repatriating men, many of whom were combatants. “The question now is how to handle those who fought, were involved in terrorism, and face difficulties reintegrating. Most will end up in prison, which could lead to further radicalization within the prison system,” Koser warned. The camps in northeastern Syria, managed by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the United States, house 65,000 to 70,000 people. Most of the residents are women and children from families of ISIS militants. While the camps are not officially prisons, movement is restricted, and Kurdish forces prevent residents from leaving. The Times of Central Asia has previously reviewed the repatriation operations undertaken by Central Asian countries, which continue to set a global example in addressing this humanitarian and security challenge.

Crime

Kyrgyzstan Cracks Down on Major Religious Extremist Organization

In Jalal-Abad, officers of Kyrgyzstan's State Committee for National Security (SCNS) neutralized one of the largest structural networks of the banned religious extremist organization Hizb ut-Tahrir. According to the SCNS press service, 22 active members of the organization were detained, including the leader (“masul”), five spiritual leaders (“nakibs”), and eight teachers (“mushrifs”) who taught extremist ideology to small groups of 3-5 students in clandestine settings. The SCNS reported that the detainees had been actively spreading destructive ideas, recruiting supporters, and distributing extremist materials for several years. During the operation, authorities discovered an underground printing house where extremist materials were being produced. A large cache of literature, as well as computers and copying equipment, was seized. The SCNS also noted that members of the network used drones to ensure the security of their meetings by detecting possible surveillance by law enforcement agencies. The detainees are currently being held in the SCNS detention center, and investigations are ongoing to identify additional members of the network and their activities. Hizb ut-Tahrir is an international religious extremist organization banned in Kyrgyzstan since 2003. Its goal is to establish a global Islamic caliphate by overthrowing secular governments. The organization is particularly active in Kyrgyzstan's southern regions, where it promotes extremist ideology and recruits new members. Kyrgyz authorities have been proactive in combating Hizb ut-Tahrir, regularly detaining its members and working to suppress its activities.

Economy

Central Asia Faces Devastating $9 Billion Annual Loss from Climate Crises

Central Asia faces a complex mix of development challenges, according to a study conducted by the Analytical Credit Rating Agency (ACRA). These include global issues such as climate change, rising inequality, and demographic shifts, alongside regional concerns like water crises, aging infrastructure, border conflicts, and lack of access to sea routes. The region’s challenges can be categorized into external and internal risks. Since gaining independence, Central Asia has been shaped by the influence of global powers. Trade, security, energy, and education ties with Russia remain strong, while China’s Belt and Road Initiative has led to significant investment in infrastructure. Western nations and multinational corporations are active primarily in the raw materials sector, particularly in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. While these international connections drive economic growth, they also heighten the region’s vulnerability to global shocks. For example, heavy reliance on remittances from migrant workers and low export diversification increase economic fragility. Climate change poses one of the most pressing threats to the region. Natural disasters—including floods, which affect about one million people annually, and earthquakes, impacting two million - result in $9 billion in annual GDP losses. Rising temperatures are expected to exacerbate issues such as water scarcity, droughts, heat waves, and the loss of agricultural land. Adopting sustainable development practices and green technologies could help mitigate these effects. Aging water and energy infrastructure is a major hurdle for the region. Energy insecurity, compounded by climate change, limits economic potential. Despite a rise in foreign investment from $1.5 billion in 2000 to $7.4 billion in 2023, the majority of funds are concentrated in raw materials, with only a small share allocated to infrastructure improvements. Transport development is equally critical. The lack of sea access places Central Asia at a 20% developmental disadvantage compared to coastal nations. Expanding roads, railways, and logistics hubs could significantly enhance regional and international trade. Territorial disputes, particularly around enclaves, remain a source of periodic clashes, with the Kyrgyz-Tajik border clashes of 2022 being a notable example. While these conflicts may not immediately affect economic stability, escalations could damage the region’s investment climate and trade prospects. A peace agreement signed later in 2022 has helped to stabilize the situation. Additionally, the situation in Afghanistan continues to present challenges, including terrorism, refugee flows, and border security concerns. These risks intensified following the regime change in Afghanistan in 2021, increasing the urgency for stronger border controls. Addressing these interconnected challenges will require coordinated efforts among all Central Asian nations. International organizations and major global partners must also play a role by supporting infrastructure and technological modernization. Such collaboration is essential to mitigating economic risks and fostering long-term development in the region.

Extremism

Central Asia Braces for Return of Radical Islamists Amid Syrian Turmoil

According to experts, the recent collapse of President Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria raises concerns about potential destabilization in Central Asia. This development may force regional governments to repatriate citizens who were lured by Islamist propaganda, while the future of the Astana format negotiations on Syria remains uncertain. The swift coup d'état in Syria saw opposition forces capture Damascus and much of the country within days. Bashar al-Assad fled to Moscow, leaving a chaotic landscape dominated by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, often described as a successor to ISIS and Al-Qaeda. The situation has plunged Syria into further instability. The Impact of Operation Zhusan Kazakhstan has firsthand experience dealing with the repercussions of Syria's instability. Between 2013 and 2017, hundreds of Kazakh citizens succumbed to Islamist propaganda, crossing borders illegally to join the conflict, often with their families. In response to the humanitarian crisis, Kazakhstan launched Operation Zhusan ("Wormwood") in January 2019 to repatriate citizens trapped in Syria. The operation, conducted in five stages and completed by February 2021, repatriated 607 citizens, 37 men, 157 women and 413 children (34 of whom were orphans). The government set up a rehabilitation center near Aktau on the Caspian Sea to provide treatment, restore documents, and offer vocational training for adults and education for children. All 37 repatriated men were detained and later convicted of terrorism-related activities, receiving sentences ranging between 6 and 14 years, whilst 18 women faced prosecution. Despite the operation’s success, many in Kazakhstan fear the returnees and their children might spread radical ideologies within the country. Lessons from the Region Other Central Asian countries have also grappled with the challenge of repatriating citizens from Syria. Bakhtiyor Babadjanov, an expert from the Institute for Strategic and Regional Studies under Uzbekistan’s president, detailed the experiences of Uzbek women lured to conflict zones. These women often found themselves deceived and abandoned in dire conditions, as described in an interview. "The 'happy caliphate' turned out to be a myth," Babadjanov explained, recounting stories of women and children abandoned without food or shelter during battles in Mosul. Survivors reported forced marriages, child abuse, and exploitation under the guise of religious duty. The Uncertain Future of the Astana Process Another significant connection between Central Asia and Syria has been the Astana process, a series of negotiations aimed at resolving the Syrian conflict. Since 2017, Kazakhstan has hosted 22 rounds of talks, including discussions on hostages, missing persons, and settlement efforts. However, the recent escalation in Syria casts doubt on the process. In late November and early December, armed opposition groups launched a large-scale offensive, capturing key cities, including Aleppo and Damascus. Despite this upheaval, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov insisted the Astana process remains relevant as a platform for dialogue and consultation, notwithstanding the fact that Assad is now in Moscow. Heightened Risks of Destabilization Experts in Kazakhstan and Central Asia have warned that the fall of Assad's regime could lead to prolonged anarchy, ethnic and religious conflicts, and a refugee crisis. Political scientist,...