Regional Security - The Times Of Central Asia

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Trade Routes

Iranian Foreign Minister to Visit Turkmenistan, Seeking Closer Ties

Foreign Minister Seyyed Abbas Araghchi is leading a diplomatic and economic delegation on a visit to Turkmenistan this week, according to Iranian state media. Araghchi will travel to Ashgabat on Monday for talks with Turkmen officials on “areas of mutual interest,” reported the Islamic Republic News Agency, or IRNA. The report didn’t specify the areas, but Iran has been working to develop its relationships in Central Asia as it faces pressure because of conflict in the Middle East, Western sanctions, and disruption to its trade routes. On October 26, Araghchi and Turkmen counterpart Rashid Meredov spoke by phone about “continuing diplomatic consultations and political efforts to de-escalate tensions and establish lasting stability and security in the region,” Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said. Turkmenistan has a policy of permanent neutrality under which it commits to staying out of military alliances, promoting peaceful relations and not getting involved in other countries’ affairs. In July, it issued an unusually sharp statement after an attack on an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea that the Iranian government blamed on Ukraine. The Turkmen government described the attack as unacceptable. The Caspian Sea is critical to Turkmenistan’s efforts to expand its role as a transit point on the Middle Corridor, a trade network linking China and Central Asia to Europe via rail and maritime links. The country’s main port is Turkmenbashi. Iran has a long border with Turkmenistan and is also a Caspian Sea littoral state, with its northern port of Amirabad. The sea is an alternative route for some of Iran’s regional trade, including with Russia to the north. Iran also offers Central Asia a southern route for goods to reach the Persian Gulf and beyond, though that route has been disrupted by blockades, restrictions and attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. In another area of collaboration, Iran imports electricity from Turkmenistan to offset shortages in northern Iranian provinces, and the two countries recently discussed expanding and extending the arrangement. They have also worked together on energy swap deals under which Iran would provide natural gas to other countries, including Azerbaijan and Iraq, and receive similar amounts of gas from Turkmenistan in return.

Organization of Turkic States (OTS)

Tokayev Proposes Russian Role in OTS as Aliyev Skips Ankara Summit

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has proposed inviting Russia to cooperate with the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) or granting it observer status. He made the proposal on October 30 at the summit in Ankara, where Türkiye assumed the organization's rotating chairmanship from Azerbaijan. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev did not attend, despite a personal invitation from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The participants adopted the Ankara Declaration and appointed Uzbekistan's Mirvokhid Azimov as the new OTS secretary-general. Azerbaijan was represented by Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov. Has Russia Expressed Interest in the OTS? Tokayev proposed two options for Russia's participation: cooperation through the "OTS+" format or observer status. "To enhance the standing of our Organization, it would be a right and fair decision to respond positively to Russia's intention and invite it to join this format or participate in OTS activities as an observer," the Kazakh president said. Tokayev referred to Moscow's intentions, although Russia itself has made no public announcement of plans to participate in the OTS. The Kazakh president justified the initiative by citing Russia's historical ties with Turkic peoples, its Turkic-speaking population, and the "Altai – Cradle of Turkic Civilization" project. The OTS comprises Türkiye, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan. Turkmenistan participates as an observer. Russia is not a member, but its population includes Tatars, Bashkirs, Yakuts, and other Turkic peoples. The proposed arrangements differ. OTS+ provides a framework for cooperation with external partners, while observer status allows more regular participation in the organization's activities without the decision-making rights of full members. In the same speech, Tokayev stressed once again that the OTS should not become a military alliance. Among its members, Türkiye belongs to NATO, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), and Uzbekistan maintains a policy of nonparticipation in military blocs. Aliyev's Absence: Scheduling Conflict or Political Signal? Erdoğan had invited Aliyev to the summit during a telephone conversation on October 21. The Azerbaijani president, however, remained in Baku. Citing sources, an Azerbaijani news agency report attributed his absence to a previously scheduled appearance at an awards ceremony for finalists in an international FIFA U-15 football tournament. Public disagreements have emerged between the two allies in recent months. In Türkiye, critics have raised objections to restrictions on religious clothing in Azerbaijani schools. Baku regarded the criticism as interference in its domestic affairs and barred more than 30 Turkish citizens from entering the country. Another source of disagreement is Azerbaijan's relationship with Israel. Ankara strongly criticizes the Israeli government's actions, while Baku continues to cooperate with Israel in the energy and defense sectors. Azerbaijani political analyst Ilgar Velizade told Daily Europe Online that Turkish efforts to ease tensions had not resolved the disagreements. He cited the dismissal of Erdoğan adviser Oktay Saral following remarks critical of Azerbaijan. In Velizade's assessment, Baku may have regarded the move as a temporary concession ahead of the summit. The analyst also emphasized that Azerbaijan does not intend to change its relationship with Israel because of Türkiye's position....

Regional Security

The Middle East’s New Rivalry Runs Through Central Asia

Eighty years after Winston Churchill described an Iron Curtain dividing Europe from Stettin to Trieste, another geopolitical rivalry is emerging across the Middle East, with the swing states of Central Asia and the South Caucasus poised to play a pivotal role. From Gwadar to the Golden Horn, the new Mecca Pact brings together Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. From Pune in India to Piraeus in Greece, the proposed India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor, or IMEC, represents a different vision of regional integration, linking India, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Israel, and Europe. At the heart of the struggle is the Turkey–Israel rivalry for regional leadership in the wake of the Iran war. But the contest will be shaped not only by the Middle East's principal players, but also by countries on its periphery, particularly in the South Caucasus and Central Asia. When Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan walked out of a regional summit in Baku as Israeli President Isaac Herzog began speaking on October 15, he was accompanied by representatives of Iran, Pakistan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the Palestinian Authority, and others opposed to Israel’s actions in Gaza. But none of the five Central Asian leaders followed him. Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev went further. On the sidelines of the summit, he held a bilateral meeting with Herzog, speaking about the “dynamic development” of Kazakhstan-Israel relations. The episode illustrated that the more Turkey plays the Israel card, the more difficult it becomes to maintain cohesion across the Turkic world. The Competition for Swing States At a Hudson Institute discussion in Washington on October 26, analysts examined competing regional alignments as the Middle East prepares for an era of reduced American engagement. [caption id="attachment_59471" align="alignnone" width="300"] From left, Ken Moriyasu, Chaim Martin, Soner Çağaptay, Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Michael Doran at a Hudson Institute event on Oct. 26. Image: Hudson Institute[/caption] Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, director of the Turkey Project at the Brookings Institution, said the Mecca Pact is “an early experiment” in managing a post-American region. “In the long run, whether it's a Democratic or Republican administration, the notion of reducing U.S. footprint in the region is a very dominant theme, and you only have to look at the American public to see that,” she noted. Soner Çağaptay, director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, suggested the pact could best be understood through the countries it excludes, both beginning with the letter "I." Israel and Iran are seen as “part of the regional problems, not the solutions,” he said, adding that the Mecca Pact envisions a broad coalition of countries establishing a new security architecture without either country at its center. India is the third "I," said Chaim Martin, Israel's minister of economic affairs to the United States. "That too is an ‘I’ that is specifically not in that pact," he said. Israel views India as a key strategic partner, with both democracies navigating complex regional environments. Erdogan's Azerbaijan Problem Despite the ambitions of the Mecca Pact,...

CSTO

CSTO in No Hurry to Help Tajikistan

The authorities in Tajikistan have been ringing the alarm bells over events in neighboring Afghanistan for more than three decades. The Tajik government did so again after violence broke out along a small section of the Tajik-Afghan border in the last months of 2025, and specifically called on the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) for assistance. The CSTO has responded, but the promised aid has yet to arrive as Tajikistan continues to seek stronger border defenses. The Perennial Border Problem There had been unrest in Afghanistan since the late 1970s, long before Tajikistan became independent in late 1991, and the instability along Tajikistan’s approximately 1,360-kilometer border with Afghanistan has continued ever since. Most of the border area is mountainous and sparsely inhabited, making it ideal for narcotics and weapons smuggling. Weapons smuggling was a huge problem during Tajikistan’s 1992-1997 civil war, when weapons were being brought back and forth across the Afghan frontier to fuel civil conflicts in both countries. From the first day of Tajikistan’s independence until June 2005, Russian border guards helped keep watch on Tajikistan’s Afghan frontier. At least several hundred Russian and Tajik border guards, and Tajik and Afghan smugglers and militants have been killed along the Tajik-Afghan border in the last 35 years. Many countries worried about Tajikistan’s border problems with Afghanistan. Neighbors such as China, the other Central Asian states, and not so far away, Russia did not want narcotics or militants from Afghanistan reaching their countries. In the mid- and late-1990s, the Taliban push through Afghanistan to the Central Asian border increased these neighbors’ concerns. After the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks in New York and Washington, the United States and its allies used facilities in Central Asia to support troops in Afghanistan. All these countries, and more, contributed to Tajikistan’s border defenses in some way, either by simply donating housing materials or winter uniforms, or providing security monitoring equipment and weaponry. It has never been enough to totally stem the border problems, but the security aid Tajikistan received is far more than the country could ever have allocated for that purpose from its state coffers. Emomali Rahmon was Tajikistan’s president in the late 1990s when the Taliban first seized power in Afghanistan. Rahmon viewed the Taliban as a threat, and Tajikistan’s policies toward the Afghan militant group reflected that. Rahmon’s opinion of the Taliban did not change when they regained power in 2021, and despite the other Central Asian states establishing a dialogue and trade ties with the Taliban, Tajikistan has been slow to engage the returned rulers of Afghanistan. In June 2024, Rahmon’s eldest son and heir apparent, Rustam Emomali, told a meeting of the CSTO’s Parliamentary Assembly Council that “Afghanistan has once again become a breeding ground for terrorism.” Emomali said more than 1,000 radical madrassahs had been established in Afghanistan, some in areas close to Tajikistan’s border, and that these religious schools were also preparing suicide bombers. A Turbulent End to 2025 In late August 2025, Tajik border guards...

Regional Security

The Taliban’s Road Reaches China, but the Border is Closed

After several years of slow progress, the road connecting Afghanistan to China is finally ready. On October 4, Taliban officials inaugurated the 121-kilometer road through Afghanistan’s remote and arid northeastern Wakhan Corridor. China, however, has not been too keen on the project, and, according to one report, when the Taliban reached the Chinese border, the way was barred, with Chinese border guards ordering the Taliban to leave the area. The Hard Road The Wakhan Corridor was part of ancient trade routes through Asia, but was clearly only used by hardy merchants. The area is one of the most isolated regions on the planet. Nearly all of it is 4,000 meters or more above sea level, mostly bare stone mountains with some grass and a few trees and bushes growing on hillsides and in the valleys. The Wakhan Corridor officially appeared on maps as part of Afghanistan at the end of the 19th century. It was a buffer zone agreed to by representatives of the British and Russian empires. Today, the far eastern section of the Wakhan Corridor is the only place where Afghanistan directly borders China. That 74-kilometer border was easy to ignore due to the remoteness of the area, but not long after the Chinese revolution in 1949, officials in Beijing still ordered it closed. The harsh climate and rugged mountains make most of the corridor virtually unhabitable, but that did not stop some from believing a modern trade route could be opened through Wakhan that would connect Afghanistan to China. Dirt roads reached a few of the larger settlements in the western part of the corridor, villages of, at most, several hundred people. The Taliban just finished building a gravel road and four bridges that finally make it all the way to the Chinese border. By itself, this is far from sufficient to qualify as a legitimate trade route. There is no infrastructure to serve traffic through the region, no petrol stations, no accommodation, no places to buy food or drink, and temperatures are well below freezing for at least half the year. China’s Big Objection The bigger obstacle is that China has no strong interest in opening this route, and in fact, would prefer the Afghan border to remain closed. The East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) is still present in Afghanistan. ETIM is comprised mainly of ethnic Uyghurs from China’s western Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, the same Chinese region that borders Afghanistan. ETIM’s goal is to topple Chinese rule in Xinjiang. ETIM fighters have been in Afghanistan for at least 25 years, and were allies of the Taliban during the years foreign troops were in Afghanistan. The Islamic State of Khorasan Province is active in northern Afghanistan, and that group has also made specific threats against the Chinese government. The Taliban have promised that they will not allow any group to use Afghan territory to plot or carry out attacks on neighboring countries. However, the Wakhan Corridor is part of Afghanistan’s Badakhshan Province, and the Taliban have...

Regional Security

China Seeks Closer Intelligence Cooperation with Tajikistan

China has called for closer intelligence cooperation with Tajikistan and stronger protection for Chinese citizens and businesses. Premier Li Qiang raised both issues during October 19 talks with President Emomali Rahmon in Dushanbe, following attacks that disrupted Chinese projects near the Afghan border. According to China’s Foreign Ministry, Li urged the two countries to “strengthen intelligence exchange and sharing” and deepen law enforcement cooperation. He also called for “strong measures” to protect Chinese nationals and enterprises in Tajikistan. Li placed those requests alongside proposals for closer economic ties, including cooperation in infrastructure and minerals. The Chinese account did not announce a new intelligence-sharing agreement or explain how the proposed cooperation would operate. Security concerns have already affected work on a major road connecting Tajikistan with China. Chinese specialists returned under armed protection to the Kalai-Khumb–Vanj section of the Dushanbe–Kulma highway earlier this year after construction stopped following the November 2025 killings. Tajikistan’s Transport Ministry said the specialists returned in April. Radio Ozodi subsequently described Tajik special forces guarding Chinese workers in Darvaz in late May. The project is funded by a $230 million Chinese grant and is being carried out by China Road and Bridge Corporation. The road runs through difficult mountain terrain toward the Kulma Pass on the Chinese frontier. Its reconstruction is intended to shorten journeys and improve year-round access. For workers on sections close to the Afghan border, however, returning to construction also required protection from armed attacks. On November 26, 2025, an assault on a company camp in Tajikistan’s Khatlon region killed three Chinese workers. Tajikistan’s Foreign Ministry said the attack came from Afghanistan and involved a drone carrying explosives. Four days later, gunmen targeted China Road and Bridge Corporation employees in Darvaz district. Two Chinese nationals were killed. Tajik border officials said the perpetrators came from Afghanistan, but did not publicly identify the organization responsible. Beijing subsequently pressed Dushanbe to protect its citizens. Rahmon convened senior security officials and ordered measures to prevent further attacks. Taliban officials announced two arrests in December 2025 in connection with the killings, but did not publicly identify the suspects. China’s economic connections with Tajikistan have continued to expand. On October 17, state-owned Tajiktelecom and China Mobile International launched a direct fiber-optic link through the Pamirs. The connection has an initial capacity of up to one terabit per second and provides an additional route to international communications networks. The Tajik section extends for 1,010 kilometers, including 435 kilometers through Gorno-Badakhshan, joining China’s network at the Kulma Pass. Together with the highway, the cable illustrates the importance of eastern Tajikistan to the countries’ cross-border infrastructure. For Tajikistan, the immediate issue is protecting the people building and operating these connections. Li’s request brings the protection of those workers into discussions about closer intelligence cooperation at the highest level.