Regional Security - The Times Of Central Asia

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CAREC Afghanistan TAPI CASA-1000 EU-Central Asia Summit Regional Security

Afghanistan and Central Asia: Pragmatism Instead of Illusions

“When the winds of change blow, some build walls, others build windmills.” — Chinese proverb Afghanistan remains one of the most complex and controversial spots on the map of Eurasia. After the Taliban came to power in 2021, it seemed the countries of Central Asia were faced with a choice: to distance themselves from the new regime or cautiously engage with it. However, it appears they have chosen a third path - pragmatic cooperation free from political intentions. Today, a window of opportunity is opening for the Central Asian states to reconsider their relationship with Afghanistan, not as a buffer zone or a source of instability, but as a potential element of a new regional architecture. At the same time, these countries are in no hurry to establish close political ties with Kabul. They avoid making declarations about "integrating" Afghanistan into Central Asia as a geopolitical region. Instead, the focus is on practical, rather than political or ideological, cooperation in areas such as transportation, trade, energy, food security, and humanitarian engagement. This pragmatic approach is shaping a new style of regional diplomacy, which is restrained yet determined. Against this backdrop, two key questions emerge: What role can Afghanistan play in regional development scenarios, and what steps are needed to minimize risks and maximize mutual benefit? Afghanistan After 2021: Between Stability and Dependency Since the end of the war and the Taliban’s return to power, Afghanistan has experienced a degree of relative order. However, the country remains economically and institutionally dependent on external assistance. Historically, Afghanistan has survived through subsidies and involvement in external conflicts, from the “Great Game” to the fight against international terrorism. Today, new actors, such as China, Russia, India, Turkey, and the Arab states, are stepping onto the stage alongside Russia, the United States, and the broader West. In the context of current geopolitical realities after the fall of its “democratic” regime, Afghanistan has found itself in a gap between the experiences of the past and a yet undetermined future. It has a unique opportunity to transcend its reputation as the “graveyard of empires” and determine its fate while simultaneously integrating into the international community. How the de facto authorities in Afghanistan handle this opportunity will not only shape the Afghan people's and the region's future but also influence the development of the entire global security paradigm. In parallel, the countries of Central Asian are building bilateral relations with Kabul on strictly pragmatic terms: participation in infrastructure and energy projects, food supply, and humanitarian aid. All of these steps have been taken without political commitments and without recognizing the regime. [caption id="attachment_30841" align="aligncenter" width="1062"] The border between Afghanistan and Tajikistan near Khorog, GBAO; image: TCA, Stephen M. Bland[/caption] Geo-Economics and Logistics: Afghanistan as a Strategic Hub The regional reality in Central Asia is increasingly taking on a geo-economic dimension. The region is not only an arena for the interests of external powers but also a zone for developing transport, logistics, and energy networks in which Afghanistan is playing an...

International Diplomacy Kyrgyz-Tajik Border Regional Security Bilateral Relations

Kyrgyz-Tajik Border Agreement Seeks to End Years of Hostility

Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan signed an agreement on March 13 that aims to put an end to tensions that have made their border the deadliest area in Central Asia for more than a decade. Underscoring the significance of this breakthrough was Tajikistan President Emomali Rahmon making his first state visit in nearly twelve years to the Kyrgyz capital Bishkek to sign the deal on the delimitation of the Kyrgyz-Tajik border. A Long-Standing Dispute Marking the border in the mountainous, sparsely inhabited eastern section of the two countries’ border was not difficult, and by 2011, some 520 kilometers had been demarcated. Reaching a final agreement on the western 487 kilometers, located in the Ferghana Valley and more densely populated, however, was far more complicated due to roads and canals that passed through both countries’ territories. Rahmon’s visit in May 2013 came a month after hundreds of residents of border communities clashed near the Kyrgyz village of Ak-Sai and Tajikistan’s Vorukh enclave. Such incidents were increasing, though at that time they were limited to fistfights, throwing sticks and stones, and vandalism of property, usually vehicles. In May 2013, Rahmon and then Kyrgyz President, Almazbek Atambayev, discussed measures to ease tensions along the border, but along the frontier, the meeting of the two presidents in the Kyrgyz capital made little difference. In January 2014, a Kyrgyz construction crew started work on a bypass road around the Tajikistan’s Vorukh enclave, and an argument broke out between border guards of the two countries. Insults led to an exchange of fire, during which Tajik border guards reportedly used grenade launchers and mortars. Five Kyrgyz and two Tajik border guards were wounded in the fighting. It was the first time weapons were used during border conflicts, but from that time on, disputes increasingly involved gunfire, increasing the number of casualties and sometimes resulting in deaths. Both governments sent additional troops and military equipment to the border area, adding fuel to the fire. On July 26, 2019, four days after another clash near the Vorukh enclave left one person dead and 27 injured, Rahmon met with then-Kyrgyz President Soronbai Jeenbekov in the Vorukh enclave. Again, there were promises of new steps to defuse tensions and hasten an agreement on border delimitation, but as had happened previously, it was not long before fights erupted, adding to the growing casualty list along the Kyrgyz-Tajik border. From Bad to Worse On April 28, 2021, Kyrgyz villagers spotted a group of Tajik citizens setting up a camera on a water intake station near the Kyrgyz village of Kok-Tash. An argument quickly led to large-scale clashes that spread along several sections of the Kyrgyz-Tajik border. Armed forces from the two countries used heavy machine guns, mortars, and armored vehicles. Tajikistan even sent helicopter gunships to attack one area in Kyrgyzstan. The fighting only lasted two days, but when it was over, 54 people were dead, hundreds were wounded, thousands were forced to flee the area, and there was damage to homes and other buildings....

Agreement Kyrgyz-Tajik Border Regional Security

Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan Finalize Historic Border Agreement, Ending Decades-Long Dispute

On March 13, the presidents of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan met in Bishkek, where Sadyr Japarov and Emomali Rahmon signed a landmark agreement on the delimitation and demarcation of the Kyrgyz-Tajik border. Following the signing, the agreement will be sent to the parliaments of both countries for consideration. Deputies must approve the ratification bill before it returns to the heads of state for final endorsement. The presidents are expected to exchange instruments of ratification on March 31 during the Fergana Valley summit, where Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev is also set to attend. Only then will the demarcation process, marking the border with physical infrastructure, begin. The Kyrgyz-Tajik border stretches 1,006 kilometers. As of 2011, only 520 kilometers had been officially defined. In the past three years, both nations have settled on an additional 487 kilometers of the border. During a recent parliamentary session, Kamchybek Tashiyev, head of Kyrgyzstan’s State Committee for National Security (GKNB) and chair of the intergovernmental commission on border negotiations, outlined key principles that guided the discussions. Notably, Tajikistan agreed to use 1991 documents to define border territories instead of relying on maps from 1924-1927. The negotiations aimed to balance both nations' interests while avoiding unilateral decisions that could lead to renewed tensions. Beyond the border agreement, both governments also signed intergovernmental deals on cooperation between their Foreign Ministries, as well as agreements on water and energy management and road transportation infrastructure. Additionally, the two sides agreed to officially reopen the Kairagach (Leilek district) and Kyzyl-Bel (Batken district) border checkpoints, which had been closed for nearly four years. Both checkpoints resumed operations on March 13.

Regional Security Women's rights Diplomacy Afghanistan Security Education

Opinion: Balancing Rights and Realities – Engaging Afghanistan for Change

The attention of the international community has once again turned to human rights in Afghanistan following the latest report by Richard Bennett, the United Nations Human Rights Council’s Special Rapporteur on Afghanistan. In his report, Bennett recommended that member states consider the concept of gender apartheid and support its codification, noting that Afghan women regard this term as the most accurate description of their situation. This initiative emerged in response to the tightening restrictions on women and girls imposed by the Taliban. The renewed focus on gender issues is not exactly what Central Asian countries expect in the context of Afghan settlement. For them, it is far more important to address pressing issues of security, economic cooperation, and control of migration flows, which directly affect regional stability. Therefore, Central Asian states prefer to concentrate on practical steps and avoid over-politicizing issues that could complicate dialogue with the Taliban and exacerbate the situation in neighboring Afghanistan. Today, women’s rights have become a cornerstone in the international community’s attempts to establish dialogue with the Taliban. The rights of women in Afghanistan have been a journey, with different periods bringing different challenges. Back in the 1920s, Amanullah Khan was a real game-changer, giving Afghan women the official equal status they deserved. But then things changed a bit during King Zahir Shah's reign (1933–1973) when education became a priority, and girls started going to school. By 1973, a heartening number of 150,000 girls were proudly enrolled in schools across the country. And let's not forget the momentous step of Kabul University opening its doors to women in 1947. Since the Taliban’s return to power in August 2021, women’s rights in Afghanistan have been significantly curtailed. Women are banned from attending educational institutions, working in most sectors, traveling without a male escort, and participating in public life. These measures have already received widespread international condemnation — rightfully so — but the official recognition of "gender apartheid" as a crime against humanity could give this issue a new legal status and increase pressure on the Islamic Emirate. The question is: How productive is this approach? The politicization of Afghan settlement, especially through the lens of women’s rights, may only worsen the situation. Making gender issues a precondition for dialogue severely limits the space for negotiations with the Taliban regime. In the United Nations itself, the Taliban are considered the "de facto authorities" of Afghanistan, and dialogue with them takes place at various bilateral and multilateral levels. In this context, strict demands on women’s rights could delay or even halt the process of engagement. This is because the Taliban perceives such conditions as interference in their internal affairs and cultural norms. Dialogue at an Impasse: Is an Inclusive Government Being Set Aside? The international community — primarily its Western segment — and the Islamic Emirate have taken extremely rigid positions. For international actors, women’s and girls’ rights have become the top priority, while the issue of forming an inclusive government in Afghanistan has receded into the background....

Afghanistan Strategy Diplomacy Regional Development Regional Security

Afghanistan: Rentier State or Hostage to Foreign Aid?

The current geopolitical turbulence presents Afghanistan and the countries of Central Asia with serious challenges. After the Taliban's return to power in 2021, Afghanistan found itself in a state of deep economic crisis, and its continued stability once again depends on external assistance. However, with the shifting global order, traditional donors such as the U.S. and the European Union are scaling back their involvement in Afghan affairs, while new sources of support remain uncertain. This creates significant risks for the countries of the region, which must find ways to minimize the consequences of Afghanistan’s crisis and ensure their own security. Historical context: dependence through the ages Afghanistan has always been dependent on external sources of income. This historical context was explored by Ali Nuriyev (historian, blogger, and researcher of the Ottoman world) in his article for TRT, "Afghanistan: The Graveyard of Empires or a Rentier State?" “As flattering as it may be for Afghans to have a reputation as [a nation that has kept its independence despite incursions from Great Powers], everything comes at a price, including Afghanistan’s independence”. Nuriyev provides a detailed analysis showing that since the founding of modern Afghanistan in the 18th century by Ahmad Shah Durrani, the country has built its economy and politics on external sources of income. Durrani financed his campaigns through raids on India, while his successors received subsidies from the British in exchange for maintaining neutrality in the "Great Game" between the British Empire and Russia. Later, in the 20th century, Afghanistan skillfully played on the rivalry between the USSR and the U.S., securing billions of dollars for infrastructure, education, and military modernization. By the 1970s, two-thirds of the country's state budget came from foreign aid. Even after the Soviet withdrawal in 1989 and the overthrow of the Taliban regime in 2001, Afghanistan continued to rely on external support. The governments of Hamid Karzai and Ashraf Ghani survived primarily due to funding from the United States and its allies. Today, following the Taliban’s return to power in 2021, Afghanistan is once again searching for new sources of income. Sanctions and frozen assets have forced the Taliban to seek support from China, Russia, and other nations, further proving that the country’s reliance on foreign aid remains unchanged. This is the historical reality: Afghanistan is a state that, for centuries, has survived thanks to external resources. Its independence has always been closely tied to its ability to extract benefits from the geopolitical maneuvers of great powers. In the present day, this historical context can be interpreted in different ways. However, one fact remains clear, today’s geopolitical turbulence is already having a negative impact on Afghanistan. Afghanistan's adaptation As the global order shifts, the key players on the "Afghan track" are adjusting their strategies toward Afghanistan, exacerbating the country’s economic crisis. United States – For Afghanistan, the new realities in the U.S. mean reduced aid and frozen assets. The U.S., which had long been Afghanistan’s primary donor, is unlikely to increase financial support soon. Following...

Trump 2.0: Security Implications for Central Asia – Diplomats and Analysts Weigh the Risks for Regional Stability

Narxoz University’s Eurasian Institute for Economic and Legal Research and the School of Economics and Management convened distinguished diplomats, military analysts, and academics from the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA), The National Institute for Defense Studies (Japan), George Mason University (US), and Maqsut Narikbayev University (Kazakhstan) to analyze the geopolitical and security implications of a second Donald Trump presidency in Central Asia. Professor Ikboljon Qoraboyev, Director of the Center for Global and Regional Governance at Maqsut Narikbayev University, argued that Trump’s pragmatism will drive him to exploit every available opportunity to advance the financial and political interests of himself, his loyal corporate allies, and the United States. This approach, characterized by a “nothing-personal-just-business” mindset, makes his actions inherently unpredictable, keeping both allies and rivals on edge. Trump thrives on calculated ambiguity, using surprise as a strategic tool to gain the upper hand in negotiations and exert maximum pressure on his counterparts. [caption id="attachment_28674" align="aligncenter" width="936"] Image: Daniyar Kosnazarov[/caption] Professor Erzhan Issabayev, Deputy Director of the Eurasian Institute for Economic and Legal Research at Narxoz University, agreed that this unpredictability could shape a second Trump presidency, particularly in terms of global power dynamics. In Central Asia, where political stability and a carefully maintained multi-vector foreign policy are crucial, Trump’s erratic decision-making presents a significant challenge for regional leaders. Professor Issabayev suggested that if Trump escalates efforts to counter China globally or if negotiations to end the war in Ukraine falter, Central Asia could become an unintended yet significant geopolitical battleground. Building on this perspective, Olzhas Zhorayev, a World Bank Group Consultant and Doctoral Researcher at the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University, examined the potential consequences of deepening U.S.-Russia and U.S.-China confrontations. According to Zhorayev, heightened tensions could push Central Asia further into Moscow’s and Beijing’s political and economic orbit, restricting the region’s strategic flexibility. However, Zhorayev also presented another possibility; if Russia and Ukraine reach a peace agreement, the Kremlin may redirect its focus and resources toward Central Asia, increasing its influence and reshaping the regional balance of power. Expanding on this idea, Marek Jochec, Associate Professor of Finance at Narxoz University, explored the varying perceptions of major global powers in Central Asia. Jochec noted that attitudes toward China and Russia are shaped by a combination of historical experiences, economic ties, and political considerations. While Chinese investment is often viewed as a driver of infrastructure and economic growth, concerns over dependency and influence persist. Russian engagement, deeply rooted in historical and cultural connections, continues to play a significant role, though perceptions vary across different countries. These contrasting views add layers of complexity to the region’s geopolitical positioning, making strategic decision-making increasingly delicate. Ultimately, the expert discussion at Narxoz University highlighted that Trump’s leadership — whether defined by unpredictability, pragmatism, or strategic maneuvering — will have a significant impact on Central Asia. As the region faces shifting geopolitical pressures, governments will need to adapt quickly, reassessing their alliances and economic strategies to...