CSTO - The Times Of Central Asia

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CSTO

For the CSTO, Afghanistan Might Be the Last Credible Threat

The Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization is conducting its “Rubezh (Frontier) 2026” military exercises from September 12-19. Those exercises are designed with Afghanistan in mind, a country that the CSTO has been talking about frequently in 2026, and also one where militant groups pose a shared threat to its members. And even the Taliban are no longer viewed as the threat they once were. Frontier 2026 The Frontier 2026 exercises are taking place at the Koktal training ground in southeastern Kazakhstan’s Zhetysu Province. The CSTO’s Rapid Deployment Force is practicing to repel cross-border incursions in mountain and desert terrain. The exercises come this time as concerns about infiltration by militants in Afghanistan into CIS territory are increasing. Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov said on September 8 that Russia is paying special attention to strengthening Tajikistan’s border with Afghanistan. The Tajik authorities have been calling for additional aid for the country’s border forces since a series of attacks from Afghanistan in November 2025 left five Chinese workers in southern Tajikistan dead, followed by an attack in December that killed two Tajik border guards. Tajikistan has regularly asked for international help in guarding its frontier with Afghanistan since independence in 1991. But after the violence at the end of 2025, the Tajik government appealed especially to its fellow members in the CSTO for increased assistance. CSTO Secretary General Taalatbek Masadykov said at the end of August that the first shipment of weapons and equipment would be sent to Tajikistan this autumn. Raison D’être The Collective Security Treaty was signed in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, in 1992 by representatives from Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. In 1993, Azerbaijan, Belarus, and Georgia joined. The purpose was simple. If any of the member states was attacked by an external enemy, that state could request aid, including military assistance, from the other members. In the early 1990s, there were potential enemies for the Treaty members in practically every direction. The Soviet Union had collapsed in late 1991. There were questions about how the former Communist Bloc countries and their new Western allies might act. The theocratic regime in Iran was a possible threat to the South Caucasus and Central Asia, and the latter region had unstable Afghanistan to worry about also. China was a concern for Central Asia and Russia. Back then, banding together made sense for the nine newly independent states that signed the treaty. When Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Uzbekistan dropped out in 1999, it appeared the Collective Security Treaty was on the brink of becoming irrelevant. After Vladimir Putin became Russia’s president, he put a new emphasis on a security bloc within the CIS, and in 2002, the remaining six treaty members signed a new charter. However, now, in 2026, the list of the CSTO’s potential external threats is greatly reduced. Far from being a security concern, China is now a leading trade partner for Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, and provides military assistance to all four countries. Iran’s relations with the West remain...

Tajik-Afghan Border

Chinese Workers Return to Tajik Highway Under Guard After Afghan Border Attacks

Chinese engineers and workers have returned to a highway site in eastern Tajikistan under armed protection. Their return restarts work on a road toward China that stopped after two attacks from Afghanistan killed five Chinese nationals in November. Tajikistan's Transport Ministry said Chinese specialists came back in April to the Kalai-Khumb to Vanj section of the Dushanbe-Kulma highway in Gorno-Badakhshan. They are advising local crews, pouring concrete, fitting tunnel lighting and completing other works. Ozodi said its correspondent saw Tajik special forces guarding Chinese workers in Darvaz in late May, but security officers did not allow photos or video. The return keeps the China-funded Dushanbe-Kulma corridor moving. The road links Dushanbe with the Kulma Pass on the Chinese frontier through the Pamir. The Kalai-Khumb-Vanj works sit close to the Pyanj River, where attacks from the Afghan side are impacting the cost of Chinese projects. Construction on the Kalai-Khumb-Vanj section began on Sept. 20, 2022, with the contract running until September 20, 2026. The contractor is China Road and Bridge Corporation. China is funding the work with a $230 million grant. Once complete, the road section should shrink from 109 kilometers to 92.3 kilometers. It includes two tunnels, five anti-avalanche corridors and 14 bridges. The route crosses Darvaz, one of Tajikistan's hardest mountain road sections. The Transport Ministry has described it as a route that had gone for years without major repairs. The work is meant to allow year-round movement and lower fuel and travel costs. By January, crews had finished 12 of the 14 bridges. Two bridges, avalanche corridors and tunnel systems remained under construction. Work stopped after the November 30 attack in Shodak, a village in Darvaz district. Tajikistan's Border Troops said an armed group came from Ruzvayak in Afghanistan's Badakhshan province and attacked CRBC employees. Two Chinese citizens were killed and two were wounded. Dushanbe called the attackers members of an armed terrorist group, but did not publicly name the organization. Four days earlier, another attack hit Shamsiddin Shohin district in Khatlon, also from Afghan territory. The Chinese embassy said three Chinese citizens were killed and one Chinese citizen was wounded. TCA previously reported that Tajikistan described the strike as using an unmanned aerial vehicle carrying explosives. China reacted with a rare public warning. On December 1, the Chinese embassy urged Chinese companies and personnel to evacuate the Tajik-Afghan border area. Its latest June 9 public warning still told Chinese citizens not to work or travel in Tajikistan's southern border areas, citing a complex security situation and extreme weather. Afghanistan's Taliban government promised cooperation after the killings. Reuters quoted Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi as saying, "The Islamic Emirate is fully prepared to strengthen border security, conduct joint investigations, and engage in any form of coordination… joint measures against malicious elements are a pressing necessity." Taliban officials later said suspects had been detained in Afghanistan's Badakhshan province. The Tajik authorities say the border is stable and under control, while continuing to announce smuggling cases and armed incidents....

Tajik-Afghan Border

CSTO Says Tajik-Afghan Border Security Remains “Complicated”

A top official of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, an alliance of some post-Soviet states,says its main challenge in Central Asia continues to be the threat emanating from militants in Afghanistan’s northern border region. Viktor Vasilyev, chairman of the alliance’s Permanent Council, said this week that member countries plan to increase efforts to counter militants who, according to Tajik and Chinese authorities, have attacked Chinese-backed businessinterests and staged other sporadic cross-borderincidents affecting Tajikistan. Afghanistan’s ruling Taliban have expressed regret for the attacks but security remains fragile in the remote, rugged border region. “Despite Russia's and several Central Asian countries' efforts to establish contacts with the current authorities in Kabul, the security situation remains complicated," Vasilyev said at a forum in St. Petersburg, Russia. He described the problem as the CSTO’s “main concern” in the region, according to Russian state news agency Tass. "We plan to increase our joint efforts here, including to neutralize the militants and extremist groups that continue to accumulate on Afghanistan's northern borders," Tass quoted Vasilyev as saying. He described the shelling of Tajikistan's territory by militants in Afghanistan as a “particular concern." The Collective Security Treaty Organization, or CSTO, has previously provided equipment and engaged in joint military exercises aimed at strengthening Tajikistan’s forces on the 1,200-kilometer border with Afghanistan. Member countries are Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Armenia. However, Armenia has suspended its participation in the alliance, reflecting its dissatisfaction with what it says was CSTO inaction during past military conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Additionally, Armenia is pursuing closer ties with Europe and the United States. At the St. Petersburg forum this week, Vasilyev said top leaders of the security alliance will discuss Armenia’s status in the group. Vasilyev, a longtime Russian Foreign Ministry official, took over the rotating position of chairman at the CSTO in January and will stay in the post until the end of 2026.

Armenia

Pashinyan Victory Points to New Transport Options for Central Asia

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev congratulated Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan on June 8 after Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party won Armenia’s parliamentary election. The message came through Akorda. Tokayev said the vote, in the preliminary view of most international observers, was open, followed Armenian election law, and allowed citizens to express their will. Armenia’s Central Electoral Commission has released preliminary results from all 2,005 polling stations, giving Civil Contract 727,160 votes, or 49.81%. Samvel Karapetyan’s Strong Armenia bloc took 23.29%, while former President Robert Kocharyan’s Armenia Alliance took 9.94%. Turnout stood at 59%. Pashinyan is on course to form another government, but doesn’t have the two-thirds strength needed to change the constitution without a referendum. That limits his room for maneuver on a final peace agreement with Azerbaijan, since Baku still wants Yerevan to alter constitutional language it sees as a claim to Nagorno-Karabakh. [caption id="attachment_50178" align="aligncenter" width="1535"] A stall in Tsaghkadzor, Armenia, selling Nikol Pashinyan paraphernalia. Image: TCA, Stephen M. Bland[/caption] Kazakhstan has built a close political track with Armenia over the past two years. In November 2025, Tokayev and Pashinyan elevated ties to a strategic partnership during Pashinyan’s official visit to Kazakhstan. The two sides discussed trade, transport, agriculture, digitalization, education, and culture. Armenian government readouts from the visit also linked Kazakh wheat shipments to regional route openings through the South Caucasus. This is the practical Central Asian stake in Pashinyan’s victory: a durable Armenia-Azerbaijan peace settlement would add another layer to westward routes from the Caspian. In October 2025, Azerbaijan removed all restrictions on cargo transit to Armenia. President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev told Tokayev in Astana that a shipment of Kazakh grain through Azerbaijan to Armenia was the first such consignment since transit stopped in the late Soviet period. Kazakhstan already uses the Caspian and South Caucasus to reach Turkey and Europe, but that network depends on a limited number of crossings, ports, and rail links. If Armenia and Azerbaijan reopen transport ties, Astana gains another way to reduce chokepoints and strengthen its position. Pashinyan’s victory also sends a political signal. The vote tested whether Russian pressure could set the limits of Armenia’s domestic politics. International observers said the June 7 election offered voters a genuine choice in a well-run process. They also cited pressure from abroad through trade restrictions and security threats aimed at pushing voters toward the opposition. The same assessment warned of uneven campaign opportunities and perceptions of selective justice inside Armenia. However, Pashinyan still won in a “landslide” despite years of public anger over the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh, a split with old security partners, and strong pressure from opposition groups with better ties to Moscow. The two main pro-Russian opposition forces won a combined 31%. The election came against a backdrop of Armenia’s break with Russian security organizations. When Azerbaijan took full control of Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023 as Russian peacekeepers stayed on the sidelines in the breakaway territory’s dormant airport, Armenia concluded that Moscow would not protect it. In February 2024, Pashinyan said...

Armed Forces

Tokayev Sets Two-Year Deadline for Military Reform in Kazakhstan

Speaking at a traditional ceremony ahead of Defender of the Fatherland Day, celebrated in Kazakhstan on May 7, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said the country must reform its armed forces within the next two years. “Our country must be prepared to prevent various challenges and respond to any threats. Therefore, we need to strengthen our defense potential and continue, above all, the technological modernization of the Armed Forces. This is a requirement of today’s unstable and turbulent times. In this regard, it is first necessary to carry out deep reforms in our Armed Forces and militarized structures. This is a strategically important task that must be resolved in a short period within two years,” Tokayev said during a ceremony awarding state honors and military ranks ahead of Defender of the Fatherland Day and Victory Day, celebrated on May 9. Russian analysts responded to the statement before many Kazakh commentators, largely arguing that Kazakhstan faces no major external threats and therefore has little need for sweeping military reform. One of them, Stanislav Pritchin, head of the Central Asia sector at the Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations in Moscow, said Kazakhstan had no serious territorial disputes or significant tensions with neighboring countries. “There are some political disagreements, but overall, the country exists in a fairly calm environment. There are simply no conflict points that would require Kazakhstan to fundamentally revise its military doctrine or significantly strengthen its army,” he told the publication, Expert. Pritchin also suggested that Russian concern stemmed from uncertainty over how Tokayev’s accelerated military reform agenda fits with Kazakhstan’s commitments to Moscow-led organizations such as the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). In Kazakhstan, however, the reform agenda fits a familiar pattern: by the time Tokayev publicly announces a deadline, work in that direction is often already well underway. In December 2025, Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov outlined major military reforms while responding to parliamentary questions about discipline in the armed forces. Following presidential instructions, the government submitted three draft laws to parliament intended to form the foundation of the reform process. The legislation addresses crime prevention and revises administrative regulations within the military system. One of the main goals is to clearly divide responsibilities among commanders, military police, and other authorized bodies while introducing technology-based disciplinary oversight mechanisms. At the same time, the Health Ministry has developed a 2026-2028 roadmap for suicide prevention in Kazakhstan, with separate provisions focused on military personnel. As part of the broader reform effort, the authorities have also approved the interagency “Digital Prevention” program for 2025-2028. The initiative includes integrating video surveillance systems, artificial intelligence, and a unified database to monitor discipline and public order within the military. In parallel, the “Law and Order in the Army” program aims to strengthen military discipline and prevent offenses among service members. Tokayev also addressed military reform in an interview with the newspaper Turkistan earlier this year. The interviewer noted that repeated deaths among soldiers during military service were damaging...

CSTO

CSTO Faces Uncertain Future as Putin Champions Russian Arms

The session of the CSTO Collective Security Council on November 27 in Bishkek underscored a key reality: the bloc, once envisioned as the “Eurasian response to NATO,” now consists of just five active members. Armenia pointedly boycotted the summit, a gesture that spoke volumes about the alliance’s internal fractures. While the presidents of Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan discussed “multipolarity” and “security,” Kyrgyz authorities erected a massive LED screen near the presidential residence, conveniently blocking the Ukrainian flag atop the Ukrainian embassy. Officials claimed the move was a “protocol requirement.” Moscow used the summit as a platform to outline its long-term strategic goals for the region, seizing the moment amid Armenia’s absence, growing debate over the CSTO’s purpose, and rising competition from other international security alliances in Eurasia. Yerevan’s decision to skip the gathering is a warning sign for fellow CSTO members. Armenia, having faced a real security crisis, evidently no longer views the alliance as a reliable guarantor. This casts doubt on the CSTO’s ability to adapt to a rapidly evolving regional security landscape, where flexibility, responsiveness, and tangible conflict support are increasingly in demand. In his report, CSTO Secretary General Imangali Tasmagambetov emphasized the bloc’s institutional development over the past three years, expanding collective forces, developing cyber capabilities, and establishing new international roadmaps. He also announced the creation of an Information and Analytical Department, signaling an effort to emulate more sophisticated military-political structures. Yet much of his address echoed the standard talking points delivered at previous summits. Tasmagambetov did address Armenia's absence, stating, “The CSTO respects Yerevan’s sovereign right.” Rather than defusing the issue, this acknowledgment only served to highlight the political rupture. Despite the tensions, CSTO leaders signed a broad set of documents, including a collective security strategy, an anti-drug initiative, and new military cooperation plans, reportedly one of the most comprehensive packages in recent years. Nonetheless, the summit’s spotlight belonged to Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko. The other leaders appeared relegated to the sidelines, affirming declarations to preserve a fragile collective consensus. Putin’s visit to Bishkek spanned two days, during which his pronouncements effectively became the summit’s agenda. He reiterated that the CSTO is a “guarantor of stability” and proposed equipping the bloc’s collective forces with Russian weapons “proven in combat conditions”, a clear reference to the war in Ukraine, though left deliberately vague. With Russia set to assume the CSTO chairmanship in 2026, the Kremlin appears to be steering the alliance toward deeper military-technical integration. Promoting its weapons to member states not only boosts Russia’s arms industry but also increases CSTO members’ reliance on Russian technologies and command systems. Some analysts suggest Moscow’s chairmanship priorities, from cybersecurity to aerospace defense, reflect an effort to position the CSTO as a counterweight to rival military-political blocs. President Lukashenko of Belarus added a European security dimension to the talks, citing NATO’s growing defense budgets and the military buildup in Poland, Germany, and the Baltic states as justification for reinforcing the CSTO. For Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, the...