Russia's War - The Times Of Central Asia

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International Diplomacy

Tokayev Congratulates Putin After Alaska Meeting; Russian Leader Briefs Mirziyoyev

Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke to the leaders of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan by telephone on Sunday, briefing them about his talks in Alaska with U.S. President Donald Trump about ending the war in Ukraine. Trade and joint energy projects between Russia and the Central Asian countries were also discussed. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev of Kazakhstan congratulated Putin on “the results” of the meeting with Trump and said “the negotiations contributed to a better understanding by the American side of the Russian position on Ukraine, which will help find common ground on this complex issue,” Tokayev’s office said. “Kassym-Jomart Tokayev considers the Alaska summit a breakthrough event in terms of strengthening Russia's international positions and mutual understanding on the world stage,” the office said. Even so, uncertainty remains. Putin and Trump provided few details about their meeting on Friday, leaving Alaska without the Ukraine-backed cease-fire that Trump had previously demanded. Ukraine and its European allies are concerned that Trump could back a proposed deal under which Moscow secures more Ukrainian territory as part of a resolution. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and European leaders are scheduled to meet Trump at the White House on Monday to press their case for a peace with security guarantees. In their phone call, Putin informed President Shavkat Mirziyoyev of Uzbekistan of the “main results” of his meeting with Trump, Mirziyoyev’s office said. “The leader of Uzbekistan expressed support for the agreements reached and voiced hope for a swift settlement of the situation surrounding Ukraine,” the office said. Putin and Mirziyoyev spoke about accelerating trade between their two countries, while Tokayev thanked the Russian leader for collaborating in the field of energy, a possible reference to Russia’s leading role in building Kazakhstan’s first nuclear power plant. The Kremlin released similar statements about the phone calls.

International Diplomacy

Despite War’s Challenges, Kazakhstan Says Trump-Putin Meeting Was “The Beginning”

Kazakhstan has praised Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump for their meeting in Alaska, describing it as “the beginning of high-level negotiations on the situation in Ukraine.” President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev “regards the summit as a historic event, made possible by the political will and sincere determination of both leaders to seek common approaches to resolving contemporary global challenges, including the cessation of hostilities in Ukraine,” Tokayev´s press secretary, Ruslan Zheldibay, said on X on Saturday. Tokayev’s statement generally aligned with the positive statements made by Putin and Trump after their meeting on Friday, even though the two leaders provided few details about how they envisioned resolving the conflict when they spoke briefly to the media after their discussion. Ukraine and its European allies have been concerned that Trump could favor Putin’s terms for ending the war, leaving Ukraine vulnerable to renewed Russian pressure in the future. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is expected to meet Trump at the White House on Monday. In a Truth Social post on Saturday, Trump appeared to back away from his previous demand for a Ukraine-supported ceasefire, saying it was better to “go directly to a Peace Agreement, which would end the war, and not a mere Ceasefire Agreement, which often times do not hold up.” Despite their concerns, European leaders have welcomed Trump’s negotiation efforts, noting a statement by the U.S. president that the United States “is prepared to give security guarantees” so that Ukraine can defend its sovereignty. “It will be up to Ukraine to make decisions on its territory. International borders must not be changed by force,” a joint statement by European leaders said. Kazakhstan is not directly involved in negotiations over Ukraine, but it has become an intermittent venue for international diplomacy and has offered to assist as needed since it maintains ties with both Russia and Ukraine. Tokayev has spoken in support of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. But in a phone call a week ago, Tokayev told Zelenskyy that “A bad peace is better than a good war,” possibly a pitch to the Ukrainian leader to consider concessions such as giving up territory in order to preserve the country’s independence. Russia occupies an estimated 20% of Ukraine and has made gains in eastern Ukraine in recent days. At least publicly, Zelenskyy has opposed the idea of giving up territory, saying the Ukrainian constitution prevents him from doing so. On Saturday, he said on X: “A real peace must be achieved, one that will be lasting, not just another pause between Russian invasions.” Kazakhstan, which has sought neutrality over the war, shares a long land border with Russia and has closer trade and diplomatic ties with Moscow than Kyiv. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Tokayev has spoken to Zelenskyy several times in phone calls that, according to Kazakhstan’s presidency, were initiated by the Ukrainian side. Tokayev has spoken to Putin by phone on more than twice as many occasions and has also met the Russian...

Peace Talks

Trump-Putin Alaska Summit Ends Without Ceasefire

U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin met on Friday in Alaska for their first face-to-face summit since the start of the Ukraine war. Despite optimism from the U.S. side, the talks ended without an agreement on a ceasefire. The leaders met for nearly three hours at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, following a red-carpet welcome and military flyover. Only a handful of aides joined the private session. Afterward, Trump called the exchange “extremely productive” and said “some headway” had been made, but stressed that “there’s no deal until there’s a deal.” Putin described “progress” and “agreements,” though neither leader offered specifics, and neither took questions. No Ceasefire, Continued Dialogue Ending Russia’s invasion of Ukraine dominated the agenda. Trump had vowed to bring the war to a close quickly, but the Alaska talks produced no ceasefire. Ukrainian officials noted that Putin appeared to have “bought more time” as fighting continues. Air raid sirens sounded in Ukraine, and Russian border regions came under drone attack even as the summit unfolded. Having previously said on the way to his summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin that he wouldn’t “be happy if I walk away without some form of a ceasefire,” U.S. President Donald Trump walked away from the talks with no agreement in place, instead urging Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to “make a deal.” “I believe we had a very productive meeting,” Trump stated. “There were many, many points that we agreed on… I will call up NATO… I’ll of course call up President Zelenskyy and tell him about today’s meeting… We really made some great progress… I’ve always had a fantastic relationship with President Putin – with Vladimir…We were interfered with by the ‘Russia, Russia, Russia’ hoax,” he added. “Again, Mr. President, I’d like to thank you very much, and we’ll speak to you very soon and probably see you again very soon,” Trump said. “Thank you very much, Vladimir.” “Next time in Moscow,” Putin replied, chuckling, with a rare use of English, before Trump abruptly ended his press event, refusing to take any questions. Both leaders said the dialogue would continue. Trump claimed he and Putin agreed on “most things” and floated the idea of joining a future meeting between Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Putin, while not referencing direct talks with Kyiv, urged Ukraine and its allies not to “derail” what he called constructive progress. Signals from Washington and Moscow Trump emphasized his desire to stop the fighting, stating, “I want the killing to stop,” and suggested he believed Putin wanted peace as well. He also said he would hold off on imposing new “severe” measures on Russia, a shift from earlier rhetoric. Trump also revealed that he would pause plans to levy tariffs on Chinese imports over Beijing’s purchases of Russian oil, saying progress in Alaska made that step unnecessary for now. Putin, meanwhile, repeated his long-standing demands that NATO expansion and other “root causes” be addressed before peace can be achieved. He warned that...

Peace Talks

Trump–Putin Talks in Alaska: What Could They Mean for Central Asia?

As U.S. President Donald Trump prepares to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, located just outside of Anchorage, Alaska, hopes and anxieties are reverberating across Central Asia. Trump has signaled that securing a ceasefire in Ukraine is his top priority, warning of “very severe consequences” for Moscow if Putin refuses to halt the war. For the five former Soviet republics of Central Asia, these peace talks carry high stakes. Any truce or breakdown could ripple into their economies and strategic calculus. The war has already fundamentally changed Central Asia’s strategic positioning, accelerating diversification away from Russian dependence. With Trump and Putin poised to negotiate, Central Asian leaders are mindful that all possible outcomes - a ceasefire, a prolonged conflict, or a major power realignment - could each reshape the region’s economic fortunes and foreign policy choices. Central Asian Stances on the Ukraine War All five Central Asian governments have officially maintained neutrality on the Ukraine conflict. On the first UN General Assembly resolution of March 2, 2022, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan abstained, while Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan did not vote. On subsequent resolutions, Uzbekistan abstained alongside Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan; Turkmenistan continued not to vote. None has recognized Russia’s claims to Ukrainian territory. Seated beside Putin at a plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in June 2022, referring to them as “quasi-state territories,” President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev of Kazakhstan refused to recognize the independence of the so-called Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics. “Modern international law is the United Nations Charter,” Tokayev stated. Despite maintaining ties with Russia, Kazakhstan has boosted its engagement with China, Turkey, and Europe during the conflict. Whilst publicly affirming that it will comply with Western sanctions on Russia, Kazakhstan has stated that it will continue to prioritize its economic interests, vowing not to “blindly follow” such measures when they harm its domestic industries. “Kazakhstan will continue to comply with the sanctions but will pursue a balanced policy to minimize the impact on its own economy,” Deputy Prime Minister Serik Zhumangarin said in August 2024. Uzbekistan has adopted a similar “balanced and neutral” approach to the war in Ukraine. In March 2022, then-Foreign Minister Abdulaziz Kamilov stated that Uzbekistan “recognizes the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, and does not recognize the Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics.” Despite Kamilov leaving his position shortly after making this statement, the nation’s position appears largely unchanged. Calling for an immediate end to “hostilities and violence,” Tashkent has expanded links with Turkey, China, and the EU. According to a U.S. State Department report from 2024, “Uzbekistan formally committed to adhering to U.S. and EU sanctions and trade restrictions on Russia.” Kyrgyzstan has continued to maintain a close economic relationship with Moscow while abstaining from all key United Nations resolutions concerning the Ukraine war. President Sadyr Japarov has said the country “adheres to a neutral position” and that exports to Russia are civilian in nature. In January 2025, Kyrgyzstan’s Keremet Bank was designated by the U.S....

War in Ukraine

Astana’s Delicate Role in Ukraine Peace Efforts

Despite its close economic, historical, and cultural ties with Russia, Kazakhstan has maintained constructive relations with Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. That diplomatic balance was on display again on August 10, when President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev to discuss prospects for a peace agreement. According to official sources, Ukraine initiated the call, and Tokayev reaffirmed Kazakhstan’s “unconditional interest in establishing a lasting peace in Ukraine based on the principles of international law.” Astana supports a “joint search for a peaceful solution on a fair basis” and consistently advocates compliance with the UN Charter, the inviolability of borders, and the territorial integrity of sovereign states. Kazakh political analyst Marat Shibutov has suggested that Zelenskyy is seeking support ahead of a potential shift in the confrontation with Russia. “On the eve of the meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Alaska, Zelenskyy is calling the leaders of other countries. He is seeking not only to secure better conditions for Ukraine, but also to understand what his personal political future holds. Yesterday, he spoke with Macron, Meloni, Tusk, Stubb, von der Leyen, Sánchez, and Starmer. Today, he spoke with Swedish Prime Minister Kristersson, Ilham Aliyev, and President Tokayev,” Shibutov wrote. According to Shibutov, Zelenskyy emphasized European support for Ukraine’s participation in negotiations. However, Tokayev, an experienced diplomat, may have cautioned that the outcome of the U.S.-Russia talks is unpredictable. “They depend on domestic politics,” Shibutov noted. “In the U.S., Trump’s electorate wants an end to the war and military aid to Ukraine halted, while many in Russia want Ukraine’s complete defeat and elimination as a state. In such conditions, Ukraine will have to make concessions. Territorial integrity is good, but not at the cost of the state’s very existence.” The official statement from Tokayev’s office cited the old proverb: “A bad peace is better than a good war.” Support During the War On March 6, 2022, shortly after Russia’s full-scale invasion, an anti-war rally was held in Almaty. Participants carried Ukrainian flags, blue-and-yellow balloons, and anti-war posters. That same month, Kazakhstan sent humanitarian aid worth more than $2 million, including 25 types of medical supplies weighing 82 tons. Volunteers also collected food, hygiene products, medicines, and animal feed worth 150 million tenge. Kazakh entrepreneurs delivered aid and generators to Ukrainian hospitals. In the summer of 2023, a Kazakh company helped repair a medical facility in Mykolaiv damaged by Russian shelling. The installation of “yurts of indestructibility” in war-affected Ukrainian cities also gained wide recognition. In Kyiv alone, more than 100,000 people visited such a yurt to charge phones, warm up, and enjoy free Kazakh national dishes. Only According to the UN Charter Kazakhstan’s deep economic ties with Russia include oil and gas transit, gasoline supplies, and imports of food and medicine. The two countries share the world’s second-longest land border, spanning 4,750 miles. Cooperation on transboundary rivers is also critical. In contrast, Kazakhstan’s links with Ukraine are modest, consisting largely of historical ties and family connections. Pre-war trade...

Ukraine

Ukraine Eyes Central Asia: Can War-Weary Kyiv Forge New Regional Alliances?

Despite the ongoing war with Russia, Ukraine is attempting to intensify its diplomatic and economic ties with Central Asia. Kyiv is seeking the region’s de facto political support against Moscow, and aiming to rebuild trade relations with the former Soviet republics. But how do the Central Asian nations view Ukraine’s regional ambitions? Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has recently launched a new department focused on Central Asia – a region that has traditionally been in Russia’s zone of influence. The move comes as no surprise, given that Kyiv is also actively seeking to make diplomatic inroads in Africa, a continent where the Kremlin harbors significant geopolitical ambitions. But unlike in Africa, which represents relatively new ground for Ukraine — and where it struggles to compete with Russia’s growing influence — Kyiv appears to be in a stronger position in Central Asia. Ukraine and the countries of Central Asia share a common Soviet past, which has left its mark on their relations in various areas, including the economy, culture, and education. A Ukrainian diaspora also lives in all of the Central Asian states and serves as an important link between the nations. That, however, does not mean that Kyiv’s diplomatic initiative will go flawlessly. Besides the ongoing war, geography is one of the biggest obstacles to Ukraine’s efforts to increase its presence in Central Asia. As a result of the conflict, the Eastern European nation can no longer use its old transport and trade routes to Central Asia through Russia. Since 2022, trade between Ukraine and the regional countries has dropped significantly, as sending goods back and forth has become more expensive. To bypass Russian territory, products from Ukrainian manufacturers are now transported to Central Asia through countries such as Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. Although these routes are functional, their profitability remains questionable. Moreover, statistics show that Ukraine’s industrial production index collapsed from 101.7% in December 2021 to 69.3% in December 2024, which is why the war-torn nation is no longer among Central Asia’s major trading partners. In 2012, long before the war, trade turnover between Ukraine and Kazakhstan – Central Asian largest economy – amounted to $5.5 billion, while in 2023 it was only $391 million. At the end of 2023, Ukraine ranked 35th in Kazakhstan’s list of trading partners, while before the war, in 2021, it was the energy-rich nation’s 15th largest trade partner. Economic ties between Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan are faring no better. According to Idris Kadyrkulov, Kyrgyzstan’s Ambassador to Ukraine, trade between the two countries has “mostly stopped” because many Ukrainian businesses have been hurt by the war, and shipping goods between Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan has become “at least three times more expensive than before the Russian invasion.” That is why, under the current circumstances, strengthening economic ties between Ukraine and the Central Asian states does not seem realistic. Fully aware of this, Kyiv is counting on the regional nations’ economic support in the post-war era – an area in which Kazakhstan has already shown...