transboundary water - The Times Of Central Asia

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Qosh Tepa canal

Opinion – Qosh Tepa Canal: Transboundary Impacts Without a Transboundary Mechanism

In recent months, media attention has increasingly focused on infrastructure projects underway in Afghanistan. Chief among them is the Qosh Tepa Canal, widely seen not only as an irrigation initiative but as a development with significant transboundary implications for the Amu Darya River basin. The canal draws water from one of Central Asia’s most critical transboundary rivers. For downstream countries, primarily Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, the Amu Darya is a vital water source, directly linked to agricultural output and the sustainability of rural communities. As such, the conversation surrounding Qosh Tepa extends well beyond Afghanistan’s domestic agenda. Concerns voiced by experts and analysts stem from both the scale of the project and the absence of an inclusive, basin-wide mechanism that includes Afghanistan, which is not a party to the main post-Soviet Amu Darya allocation frameworks. As a result, discussions regarding the canal’s potential impacts are taking place largely outside formal multilateral frameworks. One positive development is the increasing presentation of Qosh Tepa within a broader context, where water flow management is recognized as a factor shaping regional political and economic relations. However, these assessments often highlight not the canal’s stated purpose, but rather the absence of a sustainable mechanism for coordinating discussion of its cross-border effects. [caption id="attachment_43173" align="aligncenter" width="1280"] Image: TCATCA[/caption] A recurring concern among experts is the lack of a structured multilateral platform that enables early-stage evaluation of such projects before they are perceived as risks. Infrastructure development in the region frequently outpaces the establishment of mechanisms for joint impact assessment and management. In this light, Kazakhstan’s initiative to establish a specialized structure within the UN system, the International Water Organization, acquires particular relevance. This proposal is not about building a theoretical global agenda but about addressing a specific institutional gap: the lack of a neutral forum for technical and expert discussion of transboundary water projects at an early stage. The Qosh Tepa Canal, currently a unilateral infrastructure undertaking rather than the result of an international agreement, could serve as a test case for such a preventive mandate. While the project is already underway and its transboundary implications are actively being discussed among experts, it has not yet escalated into a regional dispute. This creates an opportunity for professional dialogue, without entanglement in political or status-related debates. The present situation can be summarized as one of “transboundary implications without a transboundary mechanism.” The project, while entirely within Afghan territory, objectively affects the interests of downstream states, yet it remains disconnected from any multilateral framework for consultation or agreement. Is it in Afghanistan’s interest to engage in multilateral formats? Though the question is often left unanswered, the answer is a clear “yes.” Such engagement would help dispel suspicion not only among Central Asian states, but also in Iran and Pakistan, both of which have voiced concerns over shared water resources. First, it would reduce negative external rhetoric. Currently, Qosh Tepa is largely discussed via external media with alarmist scenarios and with little to no Afghan participation. This reinforces the image...

Syr Darya River

Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to Install Hydro Posts on Syr Darya River

Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are moving forward with the installation of ten automated hydro posts along the Syr Darya River, five in each country, as part of a joint initiative to enhance transparency and accuracy in transboundary water accounting and distribution for irrigation. The project is supported by the German Agency for International Cooperation (GIZ). The initiative was a key item on the agenda during a January 19 meeting between Kazakhstan’s Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation, Nurzhan Nurzhigitov, and Uzbekistan’s Minister of Water Resources, Shavkat Khamrayev, held in the Kazakh city of Turkestan. The Syr Darya River is critical for agricultural irrigation across Central Asia, particularly in Kazakhstan’s southern regions, Turkistan, Kyzylorda, and Zhambyl, which depend heavily on its waters. The river originates in Kyrgyzstan and flows through Uzbekistan before entering Kazakhstan. Nurzhigitov highlighted that Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan signed an intergovernmental agreement last year on the joint management and rational use of transboundary water resources. “The agreement is a significant contribution to the development of water diplomacy in Central Asia and clearly defines key areas for further mutually beneficial cooperation. We intend to continue developing our bilateral partnership in the spirit of good neighborliness, mutual respect, and constructive dialogue," Nurzhigitov stated. The ministers also reviewed progress on the maintenance and repair of the interstate Dostyk (Friendship) Canal, which channels irrigation water from Uzbekistan into Kazakhstan. Last year, Kazakhstan undertook mechanized cleaning of the canal’s bed, slopes, and collectors, and carried out repairs on gates and barrier structures. These efforts will continue in 2026. Given the Syr Darya’s importance to regional agriculture, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have also launched a joint project to revise irrigation regimes within the basin. The goal is to optimize agricultural water use and improve environmental sustainability. According to the Kazakh Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation, the Aral-Syr Darya basin supplies water to more than 35% of Kazakhstan’s irrigated land, with agriculture accounting for 98% of water withdrawals. Kazakh officials recently presented water inflow forecasts for 2026 and emphasized the urgency of boosting water-use efficiency amid continued low-flow conditions. Declining inflows into the Naryn-Syr Darya system pose a threat to irrigation supplies for the upcoming growing season.

transboundary water

Transboundary Water Inflows Boost Lake Balkhash Levels

Kazakhstan received 10.2 billion cubic meters of water from China in the first half of 2025 through transboundary rivers, the country’s Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation announced. Of this total, 4.6 billion cubic meters were supplied via the Irtysh River and 5.6 billion cubic meters via the Ili River. The increased inflow from the Ili River has enabled the Kapchagay Reservoir in the Almaty region to reach full capacity for the second consecutive year. This marks a significant improvement, as 2024 was the first time in a decade the reservoir had filled completely. As a result, 8.52 billion cubic meters of water have been directed downstream to Lake Balkhash since the beginning of 2025. Located approximately 280 kilometers northwest of Almaty, Lake Balkhash is one of Asia’s largest inland lakes and ranks fifteenth globally by surface area. Due to improved water flows, the lake’s water level has risen by an average of 32 centimeters since January. The Ili River alone contributes nearly 70% of Lake Balkhash’s inflow, underscoring its critical importance to the lake’s ecological balance and water levels. Nagima Azhigulova, head of the Department of Water Cooperation with China and Russia at the Ministry, stressed the growing significance of bilateral water management efforts. “In March of this year, Kazakhstan and China signed a Memorandum of Understanding on water cooperation for the first time,” she said. “The agreement focuses on the rational and sustainable use of water resources, the adoption of modern technologies, alternative water sourcing, experience-sharing, and joint training of specialists.” Three major rivers that flow through Kazakhstan, the Irtysh, Ili, and Emel, originate in China, highlighting the strategic importance of cross-border water diplomacy. A recent report by the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), titled The Irtysh River Basin: Transboundary Challenges and Practical Solutions, offers an in-depth analysis of the Irtysh River’s role in regional water security. At 4,248 kilometers, the Irtysh is the world’s longest transboundary tributary and, along with the Ob River, forms the longest river system in Russia. Flowing from China through Kazakhstan and into Russia, the Irtysh plays a vital role for all three countries and requires close trilateral coordination to ensure the sustainable management of its resources.

Water Security

Afghanistan’s Qosh-Tepa Canal Could Impact Kazakhstan’s Water Security

The construction of the Qosh-Tepa Canal in Afghanistan and its potential implications for Central Asia’s water security were central topics at the recent international conference, Water Security and Transboundary Water Use: Challenges and Solutions, held in Astana. Delegates from Turkey, Israel, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Afghanistan, and Turkmenistan convened to address the canal’s possible repercussions and broader issues of regional water distribution. Potential Threats to the Syr Darya Kazakhstan’s Deputy Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation, Aslan Abdraimov, warned that the Qosh-Tepa Canal could significantly reduce the flow of the Syr Darya River, with direct consequences for the already depleted Aral Sea. While Kazakhstan does not share a border with Afghanistan, the canal's impact is expected to ripple across the region. “No sharp fluctuations in water resources are expected in the near term, but in the long term, a reduction in the Syr Darya’s flow is inevitable,” Abdraimov stated. He emphasized that this would further strain the fragile water balance in the Aral Sea basin. The Aral Sea’s degradation has been ongoing for decades, largely due to the diversion of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers for agricultural use, primarily for irrigating cotton and wheat fields. These diversions have contributed heavily to the sea’s dramatic shrinkage. Azamatkhan Amirtayev, chairman of Kazakhstan’s Baytak Party, expressed concern that the Qosh-Tepa Canal could divert 25-30% of the Amu Darya’s flow. “This means that Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan will receive less water. Consequently, Uzbekistan may draw more from the Syr Darya, leading to reduced water availability for Kazakhstan, potentially by 30-40%,” Amirtayev said. He urged for regional cooperation and scientifically informed policymaking to mitigate water losses. The Qosh-Tepa Canal and Its Regional Consequences The Qosh-Tepa Canal, under construction in northern Afghanistan, is designed to stretch 285 kilometers and span approximately 100 meters in width. Once operational, it is expected to irrigate over 500,000 hectares of farmland by diverting up to 10 cubic kilometers of water annually from the Amu Darya, roughly a quarter of the river’s average flow. Such a significant withdrawal could disrupt the hydrological balance across Central Asia. Reduced flows in the Syr Darya may accelerate the desiccation of the Aral Sea and exacerbate ecological degradation in Kazakhstan’s downstream regions. Experts at the conference underscored the urgency of strengthening regional water diplomacy and establishing new cooperative frameworks to ensure sustainable water usage and prevent environmental disasters. Hope for Dialogue Afghan representatives have previously signaled a willingness to engage in dialogue on water resource management. Observers suggest that joint initiatives in water management could play a key role in easing regional tensions and improving environmental outcomes. As the region faces mounting water stress due to climate change, population growth, and infrastructure development, coordinated action among Central Asian states and Afghanistan is increasingly seen as essential for long-term water security.

Water Management

Kazakhstan Secures 11 Billion Cubic Meters of Irrigation Water from Central Asian Neighbors

Kazakhstan will receive 11 billion cubic meters of irrigation water by April 2025 under an agreement reached in Dushanbe at a meeting of the Interstate Water Management Coordination Commission of Central Asia. The meeting brought together water management officials from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. Discussions focused on managing water resources in the Syr Darya and Amu Darya River basins. The allocated volume will flow into the Shardara Reservoir in Kazakhstan’s Turkestan region via the Syr Darya River. Of this total, 1.6 billion cubic meters will be directed to the Aral Sea to support its ecosystem. Kazakhstan’s Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation, Nurzhan Nurzhigitov, stated that the agreement will help the country secure sufficient irrigation water for the upcoming agricultural season while sustaining ecosystems in southern Kazakhstan. Nurzhigitov highlighted the stark contrast between the south and other parts of the country: “There are no large-scale floods in the south as there are in the west and north. In the summer, the demand for irrigation water is extremely high. That’s why we take a different approach to water management in the south, where water diplomacy is a priority. Through negotiations, we ensured an uninterrupted water supply to the region last year. We continue to resolve water distribution and transboundary water protection issues in cooperation with our Central Asian colleagues.” Kazakhstan’s agriculture, particularly in its arid southern regions, depends heavily on irrigation water from upstream Central Asian neighbors. As a result, regional water management remains a crucial factor in both economic and political relations among the countries of Central Asia.

Irrigation

Kazakhstan’s Southern Region Receives Full Irrigation Water Supply from Kyrgyzstan

This year, five districts in Kazakhstan’s southern Zhambyl region—Kordai, Merke, Baizak, Zhambyl, and Talas—were fully supplied with irrigation water from the transboundary Shu and Talas rivers, which flow from neighboring Kyrgyzstan. The announcement was made by Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation. In April, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan agreed on a joint water intake schedule for the 2024 irrigation season. As part of this agreement, Kazakhstan received 418 million cubic meters of water from the Talas River, exceeding the planned 380 million cubic meters and surpassing last year’s allocation by 94.2 million cubic meters. Additionally, along the Shu River (called Chu in Kyrgyzstan), Kazakhstan was allocated 165.3 million cubic meters, 29.7 million cubic meters more than in 2023. “Farmers in the Zhambyl region were fully provided with irrigation water according to their needs,” stated Kairat Amanov, director of the Zhambyl branch of Kazvodkhoz. In total, 533.3 million cubic meters of water were delivered, irrigating 90,100 hectares of farmland. Kazvodkhoz, a division of Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation, is responsible for managing the nation’s irrigation infrastructure, including canals and reservoirs. Kazakhstan’s agriculture, especially in its arid southern regions, relies heavily on irrigation water from Kyrgyzstan. At the same time, Kyrgyzstan faces its water management challenges. The water level of Lake Issyk-Kul, Kyrgyzstan’s largest lake, has been declining, partly due to the diversion of feeder rivers for local irrigation and to meet downstream agricultural needs in Kazakhstan. Although the Shu River does not directly feed Lake Issyk-Kul, it originates in the Issyk-Kul region and could have been utilized to irrigate nearby farmland. Instead, it plays a critical role in supporting Kazakhstan’s Zhambyl region. This allocation highlights Kyrgyzstan’s significant role in Central Asia’s water policies and its ongoing efforts to maintain cooperative relations with neighboring countries on key water and energy issues.