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transboundary water

Transboundary Water Inflows Boost Lake Balkhash Levels

Kazakhstan received 10.2 billion cubic meters of water from China in the first half of 2025 through transboundary rivers, the country’s Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation announced. Of this total, 4.6 billion cubic meters were supplied via the Irtysh River and 5.6 billion cubic meters via the Ili River. The increased inflow from the Ili River has enabled the Kapchagay Reservoir in the Almaty region to reach full capacity for the second consecutive year. This marks a significant improvement, as 2024 was the first time in a decade the reservoir had filled completely. As a result, 8.52 billion cubic meters of water have been directed downstream to Lake Balkhash since the beginning of 2025. Located approximately 280 kilometers northwest of Almaty, Lake Balkhash is one of Asia’s largest inland lakes and ranks fifteenth globally by surface area. Due to improved water flows, the lake’s water level has risen by an average of 32 centimeters since January. The Ili River alone contributes nearly 70% of Lake Balkhash’s inflow, underscoring its critical importance to the lake’s ecological balance and water levels. Nagima Azhigulova, head of the Department of Water Cooperation with China and Russia at the Ministry, stressed the growing significance of bilateral water management efforts. “In March of this year, Kazakhstan and China signed a Memorandum of Understanding on water cooperation for the first time,” she said. “The agreement focuses on the rational and sustainable use of water resources, the adoption of modern technologies, alternative water sourcing, experience-sharing, and joint training of specialists.” Three major rivers that flow through Kazakhstan, the Irtysh, Ili, and Emel, originate in China, highlighting the strategic importance of cross-border water diplomacy. A recent report by the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), titled The Irtysh River Basin: Transboundary Challenges and Practical Solutions, offers an in-depth analysis of the Irtysh River’s role in regional water security. At 4,248 kilometers, the Irtysh is the world’s longest transboundary tributary and, along with the Ob River, forms the longest river system in Russia. Flowing from China through Kazakhstan and into Russia, the Irtysh plays a vital role for all three countries and requires close trilateral coordination to ensure the sustainable management of its resources.

Water Security

Afghanistan’s Qosh-Tepa Canal Could Impact Kazakhstan’s Water Security

The construction of the Qosh-Tepa Canal in Afghanistan and its potential implications for Central Asia’s water security were central topics at the recent international conference, Water Security and Transboundary Water Use: Challenges and Solutions, held in Astana. Delegates from Turkey, Israel, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Afghanistan, and Turkmenistan convened to address the canal’s possible repercussions and broader issues of regional water distribution. Potential Threats to the Syr Darya Kazakhstan’s Deputy Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation, Aslan Abdraimov, warned that the Qosh-Tepa Canal could significantly reduce the flow of the Syr Darya River, with direct consequences for the already depleted Aral Sea. While Kazakhstan does not share a border with Afghanistan, the canal's impact is expected to ripple across the region. “No sharp fluctuations in water resources are expected in the near term, but in the long term, a reduction in the Syr Darya’s flow is inevitable,” Abdraimov stated. He emphasized that this would further strain the fragile water balance in the Aral Sea basin. The Aral Sea’s degradation has been ongoing for decades, largely due to the diversion of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers for agricultural use, primarily for irrigating cotton and wheat fields. These diversions have contributed heavily to the sea’s dramatic shrinkage. Azamatkhan Amirtayev, chairman of Kazakhstan’s Baytak Party, expressed concern that the Qosh-Tepa Canal could divert 25-30% of the Amu Darya’s flow. “This means that Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan will receive less water. Consequently, Uzbekistan may draw more from the Syr Darya, leading to reduced water availability for Kazakhstan, potentially by 30-40%,” Amirtayev said. He urged for regional cooperation and scientifically informed policymaking to mitigate water losses. The Qosh-Tepa Canal and Its Regional Consequences The Qosh-Tepa Canal, under construction in northern Afghanistan, is designed to stretch 285 kilometers and span approximately 100 meters in width. Once operational, it is expected to irrigate over 500,000 hectares of farmland by diverting up to 10 cubic kilometers of water annually from the Amu Darya, roughly a quarter of the river’s average flow. Such a significant withdrawal could disrupt the hydrological balance across Central Asia. Reduced flows in the Syr Darya may accelerate the desiccation of the Aral Sea and exacerbate ecological degradation in Kazakhstan’s downstream regions. Experts at the conference underscored the urgency of strengthening regional water diplomacy and establishing new cooperative frameworks to ensure sustainable water usage and prevent environmental disasters. Hope for Dialogue Afghan representatives have previously signaled a willingness to engage in dialogue on water resource management. Observers suggest that joint initiatives in water management could play a key role in easing regional tensions and improving environmental outcomes. As the region faces mounting water stress due to climate change, population growth, and infrastructure development, coordinated action among Central Asian states and Afghanistan is increasingly seen as essential for long-term water security.

Water Management

Kazakhstan Secures 11 Billion Cubic Meters of Irrigation Water from Central Asian Neighbors

Kazakhstan will receive 11 billion cubic meters of irrigation water by April 2025 under an agreement reached in Dushanbe at a meeting of the Interstate Water Management Coordination Commission of Central Asia. The meeting brought together water management officials from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. Discussions focused on managing water resources in the Syr Darya and Amu Darya River basins. The allocated volume will flow into the Shardara Reservoir in Kazakhstan’s Turkestan region via the Syr Darya River. Of this total, 1.6 billion cubic meters will be directed to the Aral Sea to support its ecosystem. Kazakhstan’s Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation, Nurzhan Nurzhigitov, stated that the agreement will help the country secure sufficient irrigation water for the upcoming agricultural season while sustaining ecosystems in southern Kazakhstan. Nurzhigitov highlighted the stark contrast between the south and other parts of the country: “There are no large-scale floods in the south as there are in the west and north. In the summer, the demand for irrigation water is extremely high. That’s why we take a different approach to water management in the south, where water diplomacy is a priority. Through negotiations, we ensured an uninterrupted water supply to the region last year. We continue to resolve water distribution and transboundary water protection issues in cooperation with our Central Asian colleagues.” Kazakhstan’s agriculture, particularly in its arid southern regions, depends heavily on irrigation water from upstream Central Asian neighbors. As a result, regional water management remains a crucial factor in both economic and political relations among the countries of Central Asia.

Irrigation

Kazakhstan’s Southern Region Receives Full Irrigation Water Supply from Kyrgyzstan

This year, five districts in Kazakhstan’s southern Zhambyl region—Kordai, Merke, Baizak, Zhambyl, and Talas—were fully supplied with irrigation water from the transboundary Shu and Talas rivers, which flow from neighboring Kyrgyzstan. The announcement was made by Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation. In April, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan agreed on a joint water intake schedule for the 2024 irrigation season. As part of this agreement, Kazakhstan received 418 million cubic meters of water from the Talas River, exceeding the planned 380 million cubic meters and surpassing last year’s allocation by 94.2 million cubic meters. Additionally, along the Shu River (called Chu in Kyrgyzstan), Kazakhstan was allocated 165.3 million cubic meters, 29.7 million cubic meters more than in 2023. “Farmers in the Zhambyl region were fully provided with irrigation water according to their needs,” stated Kairat Amanov, director of the Zhambyl branch of Kazvodkhoz. In total, 533.3 million cubic meters of water were delivered, irrigating 90,100 hectares of farmland. Kazvodkhoz, a division of Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation, is responsible for managing the nation’s irrigation infrastructure, including canals and reservoirs. Kazakhstan’s agriculture, especially in its arid southern regions, relies heavily on irrigation water from Kyrgyzstan. At the same time, Kyrgyzstan faces its water management challenges. The water level of Lake Issyk-Kul, Kyrgyzstan’s largest lake, has been declining, partly due to the diversion of feeder rivers for local irrigation and to meet downstream agricultural needs in Kazakhstan. Although the Shu River does not directly feed Lake Issyk-Kul, it originates in the Issyk-Kul region and could have been utilized to irrigate nearby farmland. Instead, it plays a critical role in supporting Kazakhstan’s Zhambyl region. This allocation highlights Kyrgyzstan’s significant role in Central Asia’s water policies and its ongoing efforts to maintain cooperative relations with neighboring countries on key water and energy issues.

Geopolitics

Harnessing Diplomacy: Qosh Tepa Canal as a Bridge to U.S. Influence in Central Asia

The Center for the National Interest, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank, has released a report titled Afghanistan’s Qosh Tepa Canal and Water Security in Central Asia. The report outlines how U.S. support for the Qosh Tepa Canal project could provide an opportunity for the incoming Trump administration to strengthen its influence in the region. Project Overview Currently under construction in northern Afghanistan, the Qosh Tepa Canal aims to divert water from the Amu Darya River to support agriculture and economic growth. The canal will stretch 287 kilometers, with a depth of 8.5 meters and an average width of 100 meters. Once completed, it will irrigate more than 1.2 million acres of farmland and generate approximately 200,000 jobs in northern Afghanistan. While the Taliban has championed the project as a cornerstone of Afghanistan’s development, the canal poses significant challenges for downstream countries reliant on the Amu Darya, particularly Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Concerns include potential water scarcity, environmental degradation, and heightened regional tensions. Implications for Central Asia The report highlights that the canal could exacerbate existing disputes over water allocation in a region already plagued by scarcity. Unlike its Central Asian neighbors, Afghanistan is excluded from water-sharing agreements rooted in the Soviet era. The poorly designed Soviet canals along the Amu Darya continue to undermine water security in the region decades after their construction, a fate experts hope to avoid with Qosh Tepa. Recommendations for U.S. Engagement The report urges the United States to seize this opportunity to engage Afghanistan and the broader region diplomatically and technically: 1. Support for a Well-Engineered Canal The United States should advocate for a well designed canal that prioritizes water-use efficiency. By offering technical assistance and backing the project in principle, the U.S. could pave the way for multilateral development banks, such as the World Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and the Asian Development Bank, to provide financial and technical support. 2. Promote Regional Water Diplomacy Washington should encourage negotiations for a regional water-sharing agreement among Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 3. Assist Downstream States Additional investments in modernizing irrigation systems in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan could mitigate the canal's impact on downstream water availability. Strategic Context The report underscores the geostrategic importance of Afghanistan and Central Asia, which border three of Washington’s primary global competitors: China, Russia, and Iran. By supporting the Qosh Tepa Canal project and fostering regional water-sharing cooperation, the U.S. could counterbalance the growing influence of Beijing, Moscow, and Tehran in the region. A Watershed Moment As construction progresses into its second phase, involving thousands of workers and heavy machinery, the Qosh Tepa Canal stands at the nexus of development and diplomacy. The report concludes that U.S. involvement in this critical project could serve not only to address Central Asia’s pressing water security challenges but also to reinforce Washington’s strategic position in one of the world’s most complex geopolitical arenas.

Water Security

Kyrgyzstan Tackles Decreasing Water Levels in Lake Issyk-Kul

Kyrgyzstan’s Ministry of Water Resources, Agriculture, and Processing Industry, with support from the World Bank, hosted a National Water Forum on November 29 to address the country’s water resource challenges. The forum focused on the impacts of climate change and strategies to preserve Lake Issyk-Kul, the country’s largest lake and a key tourist destination. Lake Issyk-Kul is under significant threat due to climate change, overuse of natural resources, and ecosystem degradation. The most urgent issue is the declining water level, largely caused by the diversion of water from rivers that feed the lake. These rivers are heavily utilized for local irrigation and redirected to support agricultural needs in downstream Central Asian countries. Government Action Plan At the forum, Bakyt Torobaev, Kyrgyzstan’s Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers and Minister of Water Resources, Agriculture, and Processing Industry, urged collective action to safeguard Issyk-Kul. “Climate change, growing water shortages, preserving the unique ecosystem of Issyk-Kul – all this requires us to make urgent and coordinated decisions,” Torobaev stated. To address the issue, the Kyrgyz government has committed $392 million to stabilize the lake’s water level. Key measures include: • Allocating $200 million to implement modern water-saving irrigation technologies on 100,000 hectares of farmland in the Issyk-Kul region. This initiative aims to reduce water losses and redirect water from local rivers back to the lake. • Modernizing existing irrigation systems. • Installing 2,200 automatic sensors to monitor and control water consumption. These efforts are expected to redirect up to 200 million cubic meters of water to Lake Issyk-Kul. Regional Cooperation Torobaev highlighted Kyrgyzstan’s critical role in Central Asia’s water policy. “Kyrgyzstan plays a central role in Central Asia's water policy, providing water and energy to neighboring countries. To maintain stability in the region, it is necessary to develop effective management of our waters, modernize infrastructure, and strengthen international cooperation,” he said. He stressed that water should unite the region rather than divide it, emphasizing the need for cooperation based on mutual respect, equality, and recognition of each country’s role. Torobaev also pointed to the joint construction of the Kambarata-1 hydropower plant by Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan as an example of regional collaboration. This project aims to address shared water and energy challenges, paving the way for further cooperative initiatives in Central Asia.