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U.S. Sanctions Uzbek Companies Supplying Russia with Equipment

The U.S. Department of the Treasury has sanctioned 275 individuals and entities involved in supplying Russia with advanced technology and equipment that it desperately needs to support its war machine. The Uzbek companies Uzstanex and The Elite Investment Group are among the sanctioned entities. Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Wally Adeyemo emphasized that the U.S. and its allies are committed to halting the flow of essential tools and technologies that enable Russia to pursue its unlawful war against Ukraine. “As demonstrated by today’s actions, we are unwavering in our resolve to weaken Russia’s military capabilities and to penalize those attempting to circumvent or evade our sanctions and export controls,” Adeyemo stated. Uzstanex is part of the StanexGroup holding. The company sells and adjusts machine tools in Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. According to the U.S. Treasury Department, the machine tools purchased by Uzstanex were delivered to Russia through the Chinese company Shanghai Winsun Imp and Exp Co Ltd (Shanghai Winsun), which is why sanctions were imposed against it. The Elite Investment Group is a non-specialized wholesaler. It is noted that from mid-March to May 2024, using GUCLU GLOBAL as a carrier agent, the company delivered approximately $190,000 worth of high-priority goods, including electrical transformers, to companies in Russia, including the GS Group.

Tokayev Gets Pundits Talking with “Invincible” Russia Remark

Carl von Clausewitz, the Prussian military theorist, described war as “the realm of uncertainty.” So, is Russia militarily invincible? Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev´s emphatic statement earlier this week that Russia can’t be defeated on the battlefield had analysts, observers and history buffs musing about whether the proposition is actually true, and what if any politics were behind the widely reported remark. Tokayev made the point in a conversation with visiting German Chancellor Olaf Scholz as part of a general argument for peace more than two years after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Western-backed Ukraine. The official English-language translation of Tokayev’s comment didn’t include “invincible,” but basically said the same thing: “It is a fact that Russia cannot be defeated militarily.” For some people, the remark was a blunt assessment of a grinding conflict that, according to a report this week in The Wall Street Journal, has killed and injured about one million Russians and Ukrainians. For others, it amounted to a kind of pro-Russian defeatism, even though Kazakhstan and other Central Asian countries have angled for neutrality, not endorsing the invasion but maintaining traditional ties with Moscow. Roland Kater, an analyst and former commander in the Germany military, said he agreed – with caveats - with Tokayev’s assessment that Russia was militarily invincible. “With regard to the war in Ukraine, I would say yes at the moment, under the given conditions,” Kater said on Germany’s Welt news channel. He noted that NATO, which supports Ukraine won’t enter the war “as an institution.” “The result is that Ukraine cannot actually win this war at the moment and that the Russians there are, I don’t want to say unbeatable, but they are in the lead,” Kater said. Russia earned a reputation for resilience in past wars, after initial setbacks on its own territory and at great cost. It prevailed over Charles XII at the Battle of Poltava in 1709 after the Swedish king’s invasion of Russia; prevailed over Napoleon during the disastrous 1812 invasion in which the French emperor seized Moscow but was forced to retreat as disease, harsh weather and other problems took a toll; and prevailed over Adolf Hitler when the German invasion of the Soviet Union in 1941 eventually faltered with massive casualties on both sides. Still, the Washington-based Central Asia Consulting group, a critic of Russia, said there was no basis for Tokayev’s comment about Russia’s military invincibility and made some unflattering historical references. “Russia has faced defeats in the past wars (Crimean War, Russo-Japanese War, WWI, Winter War, Afghanistan, First Chechen War, Tajikistan War),” the group said on X. In his remarks, Tokayev also said “further escalation of the war will lead to irreversible consequences” for humanity, in what appeared to be a message for the West since he was in the company of Scholz when he said it. Scholz agreed that peace was the best option but that Russia could end the war anytime by stopping its aggression. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, meanwhile, is expected to present what...

Russia Sends Some 10,000 Migrants to War in Ukraine

During recent raids, over 30,000 people who have obtained Russian citizenship but do not want to join the military register were identified.  Some 10,000 were then sent to fight in Ukraine , announced head of the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation, Alexander Bastrykin. "A year ago, I instructed our divisions to create groups on the ground to work with migrants. We actively participate in raids together with other law enforcers. We - discovered, by chance, a loophole through which - migrants began to leave the Russian Federation slowly," stated Bastrykin. "The issue here is the implementation of the Constitution and Russian laws that requires anyone granted citizenship to register for military service and, if necessary, take part in a military operation." Bastrykin added that migrants who have obtained Russian citizenship "are now joining the ranks of rear units." According to experts, the bulk of the migrants sent to fight in Ukraine hail from Central Asia.

Central Asian Public Opinion is the Latest Battle Front Between Putin and Zelenskiy

The settings were starkly different. An Uzbek honor guard in elaborate uniform greeted Russian President Vladimir Putin after he arrived at Uzbekistan’s Tashkent airport on May 26 for a state visit. Two days earlier, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy gave an interview to Central Asian media in his signature army-green combat-ready t-shirt, sitting in the ruins of a Kharkiv printing house destroyed by Russian missiles.  With the war in Ukraine into its third year, Putin’s trip to Uzbekistan represents part of his broader mission to nurture long-standing trade and security ties with Central Asian countries, who have been trying to walk a delicate line in their relationships with Russia. Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev welcomed Putin with a literal embrace. Their official meeting the next day was scheduled to address bilateral issues and views on “current regional problems,” reported Russia’s state-run news agency Tass.  While in Uzbekistan President Putin had boasted that Russia was Uzbekistan’s biggest trading partner with export growth by 23% this year and had invested over $13 billion in the country. He called Uzbekistan to be the biggest state in Central Asia; praised Mirziyoyev’s language policy that protects Russian language in schools and as an official language in Uzbekistan. Russia has started exporting gas to Uzbekistan through Kazakhstan, with some of the gas staying in Kazakhstan. Some analysts argue that Russia can circumvent sanctions by partly relying on imports, mainly from Europe, that come through Central Asia.  Over in the war-torn Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, President Zelenskiy’s interview with six journalists from Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, some openly affiliated with Radio Free Europe and the Soros Foundation, included a discussion on how to deepen solidarity between the people of Central Asia and Ukraine over a shared anti-Russian sentiment. Zelenskiy tells Central Asians to drop their balancing act towards Russia In the interview, President Zelenskiy challenged Central Asian countries to overcome their economic dependencies and security vulnerabilities and adopt Ukraine’s hardline posture against Russia. The region’s leaders “are still [positioned] more in the Russian direction because of fear of the Kremlin. We [the Ukrainians] have made our choice, we are fighting,” Zelenskiy said, according to a Russian transcript of the interview published by Kazakh media outlet Orda.kz. Zelenskiy told Central Asians and others who are “trying to balance” their relationships with Russia to "not wake the beast" that this strategy will not work because “the beast does not ask anyone: he wakes up when he wants”.  Zelenskiy warned Central Asian people that alongside the Baltic states and Moldova, they, too, face a risk of being invaded by Russia given their Russian populations, which the Kremlin may decide to intervene to protect, as it did in Ukraine. He also added grimly, “if you, your people, resist becoming part of Russia, you will inevitably be waiting for a full-scale invasion, death and war.” Calling on the world to unite against Russia, President Zelenskiy recommended that Central Asians isolate Russia economically and diplomatically, arguing that “balancing acts” to help their economy in the...

Kazakhstan Offers to Host Platform for Russia-Ukraine Negotiations

Kazakhstan is prepared to host negotiations to settle the war in Ukraine, according to comments made by Kazakhstan's ambassador to Russia, Dauren Abayev, in an interview with the Russian state news outlet TASS. "Certainly, Kazakhstan is always ready to help on all processes that concern the world. This is not only Russia and Ukraine, but also Armenia and Azerbaijan, on the Syrian issue, on the Iranian issue. It is probably [an overstatement] to say to be mediators, but to provide a platform, to create some conditions, we are certainly ready," Abayev said. He added: "There are many different initiatives now, and there is a clear understanding that without Russia's participation, these processes are impossible. Of course, Russia's opinion should always be taken into account in these processes. Of course, we are ready to be, as I say, not mediators, but to provide a platform, to create some conditions," he added. As previously reported in the media, Kazakhstan's president Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, during his recent visits to Azerbaijan and Armenia, underscored Kazakhstan's readiness to provide platforms for negotiations between Baku and Yerevan. The Armenian foreign ministry said that a direct meeting of the sides will be held as early as May 10. Previously, Kazakhstan provided a platform for negotiations on the war in Syria. Negotiations concerning the Iranian nuclear program have also been held in Kazakhstan.

Central Asia and Turkey Serving as Way-Points for Russia’s Explosives Imports

Citing an analysis of trade data, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) has reported that Russia has boosted its imports of an explosive compound critical to the production of artillery ammunition - including from companies based in the U.S. and other Western countries and allies - despite international sanctions meant to choke Moscow's wartime production. Russian imports of nitrocellulose, a highly flammable cotton product central to gunpowder and rocket propellant production, surged 70% in 2022, the first year of Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and midway through 2023 imports amounted to 3,039 tons of the product - nearly double the 2021 level. Another supplier of cotton pulp, China, increased its supplies after U.S. and European (EU) sanctions. However, according to Liu Pengyu, spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, "Sino-Russian economic and trade cooperation is not directed against any third party and should not be violated or coerced by any third party... China does not sell weapons to parties involved in the Ukraine crisis and handles exports of dual-use goods in a reasonable manner in accordance with laws and regulations." According to Russian customs data provided by trade database, Import Genius, Turkish company Noy İç Ve Diş Ti̇caret accounted for nearly half of Russia's nitrocellulose imports since the Russia-Ukraine conflict began, with most of the Istanbul-based company's sales to Russian companies that are government contractors based in Moscow. The Turkish Embassy, as well as representatives of the company, declined to comment. Nitrocellulose supplies to Russia have also been found to contain chemical tracers from the U.S. company, International Flavors & Fragrances, which suspended its direct shipments to Russia in April 2022 but continued them through third countries. The company said its product didn't contain enough nitrogen to be a component of an explosive. However, Michelle Pantoja, a professor of mechanical engineering at Texas Tech University who heads the combustion laboratory's research center, said the nitrogen content of civilian nitrocellulose could be increased to the required level. In December, the U.S. Department of Commerce added nitrocellulose to its list of high-priority controlled commodities, which restricts its exports, and the Treasury Department said it would impose sanctions on banks or other institutions found to be financing such international trades. To be effective, however, sanctions must also apply to nitrocellulose supplier companies, said a Rand analyst. Last year, the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP) claimed to have documents in its possession which showed that more than 98% of nitrocellulose imported into Russia is supplied by Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, and that imports have increased since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The Import Genius database revealed that in 2022 and early 2023, Fergana Chemical Plant, one of the largest cotton pulp producers in Uzbekistan, not only supplied raw materials to Russian importing companies, but also made direct shipments to two Russian gunpowder plants - one in Kazan, the other in Perm - worth more than $2.2 million. In total, according to a joint investigation by Important Stories, OCCRP and Vlast.kz, the plant supplied 2,700...