Ukraine War - The Times Of Central Asia

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Trump’s Bid for Ukraine-Russia Peace: Could Kazakhstan Be the Key Mediator?

One of the anticipated top priorities of Donald Trump’s presidency is ending Russia's war in Ukraine while normalizing relations with Moscow. Writing on his Truth Social channel, Trump stated that, “Together, we will secure PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH, and Make America, and the World, SAFE AGAIN!” Trump’s nominee to serve as Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia, 80-year-old former national security advisor, General Keith Kellogg, laid out his plan in writing for the America First policy institute, whilst focusing on characterizing the war “an avoidable crisis that, due to the Biden Administration’s incompetent policies [which] has entangled America in an endless war.” There are fears, however, that Kellogg’s proposal to reach a ceasefire by freezing the frontlines and forcing both sides the negotiating table will lead to a tumultuously violent period as Moscow seeks to swallow up territory. Meanwhile, NATO’s new secretary-general, Mark Rutte, has warned that compelling Ukraine into a “bad peace” would pose a “dire threat” to the U.S. itself. Whilst the framework for bringing a pause to hostilities is becoming clearer, it appears that Trump (or his representative) will need to meet with Vladimir Putin, and Kazakhstan has emerged as a potential venue for this high-stakes meeting. Kazakhstan's Role as Mediator Russian political analyst, Arkady Dubnov, has argued that Putin’s recent state visit to Astana may be an indication that Kazakhstan could play a pivotal role, and that given Putin’s limited travel options due to the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant against him, Kazakhstan, with its reputation for diplomacy, would be a logical choice. “Putin is essentially restricted from visiting most of the Western Hemisphere,” Dubnov explained. “This leaves the Eurasian East, and among its cities, Astana stands out. Kazakhstan has hosted OSCE and CICA summits, mediated in the Syrian conflict, and facilitated peace talks over the future of the South Caucasus.” Dubnov sees Putin’s visit to Astana as indirectly tied to a possible meeting with Trump. “The Kremlin trusts Kazakhstan as an ally while respecting its constructive relations with the U.S. and the broader West,” he stated. Kazakhstan has long been recognized as a neutral ground where East and West can find commonality. The Astana process on Syria, initiated in 2017, helped prevent the escalation of hostilities for years, whilst Kazakhstan has mediated in other long-standing disputes, such as the conflict between Armenian and Azerbaijan. Given this history, it is conceivable that a reconciliation process between Russia and Ukraine could start in Astana. Neither the Minsk agreements of 2014, nor discussions in Istanbul in 2022 achieved lasting peace, but Kazakhstan’s diplomatic efforts could provide fresh impetus. Early Peace Efforts In March 2022, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, emphasized the urgency of negotiations to bring a halt to hostilities, a stance that has since gained momentum as the war drags on. By 2024, the validity of Tokayev’s view — that negotiations are the only viable path to end the bloodshed — has become increasingly apparent. Kazakhstan’s diplomatic corps has actively pushed for peace....

Ukraine War Russia's War Security

Kazakhstan on Alert as War in Ukraine Escalates

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has instructed his government to take urgent steps to safeguard key military and civilian facilities because of escalating hostilities in Ukraine, which has been fighting Russian forces since they launched a full-scale invasion in early 2022. Tokayev ordered the prime minister, the presidential chief of staff, security chiefs and regional governors “to ensure the security” of the facilities, presidential press secretary Berik Uali said on Facebook on Thursday. Uali’s message did not include any details about the security steps that were being taken. Parliamentary leaders were notified of the measures, according to Uali. “The President is personally monitoring the situation in the country,” he said. The message came hours after Russia struck a site in the Ukrainian city of Dnipro with a new ballistic missile that amounted to a heightened warning from Russian President Vladimir Putin. The missile was only carrying conventional warheads, but it is in a class of missiles that can carry nuclear weapons. On Wednesday, Kazakhstan’s embassy in Ukraine urged Kazakh citizens to consider leaving Ukraine for safety reasons, and Kyrgyzstan issued a similar message to its nationals. Kazakhstan, which shares a long border with Russia, has called for an end to the conflict in Ukraine through negotiations. Kazakhstan and other Central Asian countries that, like Ukraine, were former Soviet republics have sought a neutral stance, maintaining trade and security ties with Russia while not publicly supporting the invasion.

Russia's War Ukraine War Security

War in Ukraine: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan Tell Citizens to Step Up Safety

Some Central Asian countries are urging their nationals to consider leaving Ukraine as the war with Russian forces escalates there. “Due to the increased frequency of artillery shelling and airstrikes in Ukraine, the Embassy of the Republic of Kazakhstan in Ukraine strongly advises its citizens to consider leaving areas close to active combat zones or leaving Ukraine altogether for safety purposes,” the embassy said on Telegram on Wednesday. It urged citizens “to take air raid warnings seriously, immediately seek shelter, adhere to personal safety measures, and follow the recommendations of official authorities.” Kazakh citizens can travel home from Ukraine by using land routes through Poland or Moldova, and then boarding a commercial flight, according to the embassy. It said a Schengen visa is required for entry into Poland and no visa is needed for Moldova. Citing its embassy in Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said “a massive attack was carried out on the territory of the Kyiv region using attack unmanned aerial vehicles” on Wednesday. The ministry recommended that Kyrgyz citizens currently in Ukraine “strengthen their personal security measures and, if necessary, leave the territory of Ukraine until the situation has fully stabilized.” The U.S. Embassy in Kyiv said it was closing on Wednesday as a precaution after receiving “specific information of a potential significant air attack” and that embassy employees were instructed to shelter in place. Some other Western embassies also closed temporarily. Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and the war has recently escalated. North Korean troops have deployed into ally Russia’s territory near the border, including in the Kursk region of Russia where Ukrainian troops have seized territory; the United States has allowed Ukraine to use U.S.-supplied, longer-range missiles to attack targets in Russia; and Russian President Vladimir Putin has issued another round of warnings about the possible use of Russia’s nuclear arsenal, in an apparent effort to deter more Western support for Ukraine.

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U.S. Sanctions Uzbek Companies Supplying Russia with Equipment

The U.S. Department of the Treasury has sanctioned 275 individuals and entities involved in supplying Russia with advanced technology and equipment that it desperately needs to support its war machine. The Uzbek companies Uzstanex and The Elite Investment Group are among the sanctioned entities. Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Wally Adeyemo emphasized that the U.S. and its allies are committed to halting the flow of essential tools and technologies that enable Russia to pursue its unlawful war against Ukraine. “As demonstrated by today’s actions, we are unwavering in our resolve to weaken Russia’s military capabilities and to penalize those attempting to circumvent or evade our sanctions and export controls,” Adeyemo stated. Uzstanex is part of the StanexGroup holding. The company sells and adjusts machine tools in Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. According to the U.S. Treasury Department, the machine tools purchased by Uzstanex were delivered to Russia through the Chinese company Shanghai Winsun Imp and Exp Co Ltd (Shanghai Winsun), which is why sanctions were imposed against it. The Elite Investment Group is a non-specialized wholesaler. It is noted that from mid-March to May 2024, using GUCLU GLOBAL as a carrier agent, the company delivered approximately $190,000 worth of high-priority goods, including electrical transformers, to companies in Russia, including the GS Group.

Ukraine War Russia

Tokayev Gets Pundits Talking with “Invincible” Russia Remark

Carl von Clausewitz, the Prussian military theorist, described war as “the realm of uncertainty.” So, is Russia militarily invincible? Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev´s emphatic statement earlier this week that Russia can’t be defeated on the battlefield had analysts, observers and history buffs musing about whether the proposition is actually true, and what if any politics were behind the widely reported remark. Tokayev made the point in a conversation with visiting German Chancellor Olaf Scholz as part of a general argument for peace more than two years after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Western-backed Ukraine. The official English-language translation of Tokayev’s comment didn’t include “invincible,” but basically said the same thing: “It is a fact that Russia cannot be defeated militarily.” For some people, the remark was a blunt assessment of a grinding conflict that, according to a report this week in The Wall Street Journal, has killed and injured about one million Russians and Ukrainians. For others, it amounted to a kind of pro-Russian defeatism, even though Kazakhstan and other Central Asian countries have angled for neutrality, not endorsing the invasion but maintaining traditional ties with Moscow. Roland Kater, an analyst and former commander in the Germany military, said he agreed – with caveats - with Tokayev’s assessment that Russia was militarily invincible. “With regard to the war in Ukraine, I would say yes at the moment, under the given conditions,” Kater said on Germany’s Welt news channel. He noted that NATO, which supports Ukraine won’t enter the war “as an institution.” “The result is that Ukraine cannot actually win this war at the moment and that the Russians there are, I don’t want to say unbeatable, but they are in the lead,” Kater said. Russia earned a reputation for resilience in past wars, after initial setbacks on its own territory and at great cost. It prevailed over Charles XII at the Battle of Poltava in 1709 after the Swedish king’s invasion of Russia; prevailed over Napoleon during the disastrous 1812 invasion in which the French emperor seized Moscow but was forced to retreat as disease, harsh weather and other problems took a toll; and prevailed over Adolf Hitler when the German invasion of the Soviet Union in 1941 eventually faltered with massive casualties on both sides. Still, the Washington-based Central Asia Consulting group, a critic of Russia, said there was no basis for Tokayev’s comment about Russia’s military invincibility and made some unflattering historical references. “Russia has faced defeats in the past wars (Crimean War, Russo-Japanese War, WWI, Winter War, Afghanistan, First Chechen War, Tajikistan War),” the group said on X. In his remarks, Tokayev also said “further escalation of the war will lead to irreversible consequences” for humanity, in what appeared to be a message for the West since he was in the company of Scholz when he said it. Scholz agreed that peace was the best option but that Russia could end the war anytime by stopping its aggression. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, meanwhile, is expected to present what...

Russia Security Migration Ukraine War Terrorism

Russia Sends Some 10,000 Migrants to War in Ukraine

During recent raids, over 30,000 people who have obtained Russian citizenship but do not want to join the military register were identified. Some 10,000 were then sent to fight in Ukraine , announced head of the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation, Alexander Bastrykin. "A year ago, I instructed our divisions to create groups on the ground to work with migrants. We actively participate in raids together with other law enforcers. We - discovered, by chance, a loophole through which - migrants began to leave the Russian Federation slowly," stated Bastrykin. "The issue here is the implementation of the Constitution and Russian laws that requires anyone granted citizenship to register for military service and, if necessary, take part in a military operation." Bastrykin added that migrants who have obtained Russian citizenship "are now joining the ranks of rear units." According to experts, the bulk of the migrants sent to fight in Ukraine hail from Central Asia.