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Middle Corridor

Opinion: Washington Needs a Stronger Policy for the Middle Corridor

The inauguration of President Donald Trump marks a new phase in U.S. foreign policy with direct implications for the Middle Corridor, a key trade route linking China to Europe via Central Asia and the South Caucasus. This corridor, also known as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), has been gaining increasing strategic importance as global trade patterns shift and great-power competition intensifies. During Trump’s first term, U.S. engagement in the region was sporadic and lacked a comprehensive strategy. While some policy initiatives were undertaken to counterbalance Russian and Chinese influence in Eurasia, these efforts remained piecemeal. The Biden administration attempted to address this gap by allocating limited funding for infrastructure development and engaging in regional negotiations aimed at fostering greater connectivity. However, Biden’s approach ultimately fell short of a coherent, long-term policy, allowing Moscow and Beijing to consolidate their positions in the region. The significance of the Middle Corridor has been underscored by increased international investment. Beyond economic concerns, the Middle Corridor plays a critical role in Europe’s energy security. The corridor facilitates the westward flow of Caspian resources, providing an alternative to Russian energy exports. The development of the Middle Corridor offers a strategic means of achieving this goal, reinforcing the EU’s energy independence while simultaneously strengthening economic ties with the South Caucasus and Central Asia. Azerbaijan has emerged as a central player in the development of the Middle Corridor. As a crucial transit country, Baku has actively pursued infrastructure investments to bolster the corridor’s efficiency. Azerbaijan’s role is further magnified by its growing energy exports to Europe, solidifying its position as a strategic partner in regional energy security. The Baku–Tbilisi–Kars railway, a vital component of the corridor, has received continued investment, underscoring Azerbaijan’s commitment to enhancing trade and transit connectivity. However, Azerbaijan’s increasing importance also intersects with ongoing geopolitical complexities, particularly its relationship with Armenia. The absence of Armenian participation in the Middle Corridor remains a notable gap, one that is directly tied to the resolution of long-standing territorial disputes. The prospect of an Armenia–Azerbaijan peace treaty has gained traction in recent years, supported by Western diplomatic efforts. U.S. policymakers have recognized that sustainable peace between the two nations would not only stabilize the South Caucasus but also unlock Armenia’s potential role in the corridor. Armenia’s geopolitical realignment presents both opportunities and challenges. While Yerevan has signaled its interest in deepening ties with the West, it remains economically dependent on Russia, particularly in energy and financial sectors. Increased Armenian exports to Russia, some of which analysts suspect may involve re-exports of sanctioned goods, further complicate efforts to shift its economic orientation. Recent discussions within U.S. policy circles indicate a growing recognition of the Middle Corridor’s strategic importance. American policymakers have begun exploring ways to expand support for infrastructure development in the region, recognizing that a proactive approach could yield multiple geopolitical and economic benefits. By investing in the Middle Corridor, the U.S. has an opportunity to enhance regional stability, strengthen economic ties with key partners, and counterbalance Russian...

United States

Seven Uzbeks Deported from the U.S. Arrive in Tashkent

Uzbekistan has been in contact with Latin American governments and U.S. authorities regarding the deportation of its citizens from the United States, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Ahror Burhonov confirmed. Uzbek Citizens Returned from the U.S. Seven Uzbek nationals, who were initially set to be deported to Costa Rica, have been repatriated to Uzbekistan following negotiations with U.S. officials. “As a result of talks with the U.S., seven of our citizens, who were scheduled to be sent to Costa Rica but wished to return home, arrived in Uzbekistan on February 24 on a New York-Tashkent flight,” Burhonov announced on his Telegram channel. U.S. Deportation of Migrants The Times of Central Asia previously reported that 200 migrants from Central Asia and India were among those slated for deportation to Costa Rica as part of U.S. immigration enforcement measures. Additionally, a U.S. Air Force flight recently transported deportees from multiple countries, including Afghanistan, China, India, Iran, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Turkey, Uzbekistan, and Vietnam, to Panama. Two more deportation flights are expected, bringing the total number of deportees to 360.

Geopolitics

A Central Asian Perspective: Look Out for Ourselves as World Shifts

Kazakhstan must focus on its own interests at a time of uncertainty over the Trump administration’s global relations and alliances as well as pending appointments to key U.S. diplomatic posts for Central Asia, according to the head of a non-governmental group based in Almaty. The comments by Karla Jamankulova, head of the free speech group Adil Soz, reflect a wider sense of vigilance in Central Asia. The region’s governments are monitoring and engaging Washington as the new U.S. administration moves to implement major, even stunning policy shifts, including warnings of tariffs on key trading partners, disruption of the longstanding U.S.-Europe alliance and a possible rapprochement with Russia after years of hostility. It’s a critical time for Central Asian states that have generally sought to balance their relationships with big powers since independence from the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, rather than side with any one faction at the expense of another. The war in Ukraine put that approach to the test as those countries did not express support for Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022 but maintained vital trade ties with it even as the West tried to isolate Moscow with economic sanctions. President Donald Trump has significantly shifted U.S. priorities, prompting other nations to reassess their own geopolitical strategies. “Given the current uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Russia economic relations and the increasingly anti-China stance, it is now crucial to understand the contours of U.S.-Kazakhstan relations moving forward,” Jamankulova said on Facebook on Tuesday. Her NGO has received funding for projects from the U.S. Embassy in the past, though such support appears to have ended since the Trump administration announced a freeze on nearly all foreign aid and took steps to dismantle the U.S. Agency for International Development. Jamankulova didn’t comment on a debate within Kazakhstan about whether such foreign funding benefits civil society, or is a tool of interference by foreign governments, or both. Nor did she talk about whether there might be differing views within Kazakhstan about national interests. There are positive signs for Kazakhstan, specifically indications that the Trump administration would support bipartisan efforts to scrap the Jackson-Vanik amendment, a 50-year-old law that imposes some restrictions on trade with several countries in Central Asia. During his confirmation hearings for the post of secretary of state in January, U.S. Senator Marco Rubio described the amendment as “a relic of an era that’s passed.” As secretary of state, Rubio spoke by telephone on Feb. 21 to Foreign Minister Bakhtiyor Saidov of Uzbekistan about increasing trade and expanding the strategic partnership between the two countries, according to an Uzbek readout. The U.S. State Department made similar comments. In her Facebook post, Jamankulova said she was unaware of any similar discussions involving Foreign Minister Murat Nurtleu of Kazakhstan, though acknowledged that doesn’t necessarily mean there is a shift in U.S. priorities. “The Atlantic Council has long advocated for Trump to be the first U.S. president to visit Central Asia. Kazakhstan appears to be on the radar. At the last C5+1 summit in 2023,...

Politics

Why Kazakhstan’s Tokayev Was Right About Diplomacy in Ukraine

When the history of the war in Ukraine is written, one question demanding extended treatment will be why diplomacy remained sidelined for so long. Conflicts involving major powers and their proxies have in recent decades (think of Korea, Vietnam, and the Balkans) finished mainly not in outright military victories but in negotiated settlements. Now, with reports of U.S. President Donald Trump reaching directly out to his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, it is important to reassess why the long-standing insistence on diplomacy by Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev was not met with more support. Tokayev’s early insistence on negotiations was instead met with scepticism. As the war ground on, Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive (planned and mandated by Western advisors) failed while Russia’s entrenchment in the occupied territories continued. The fact that a Trump–Putin call has taken place, bypassing European leaders, underscores the shift of view in Washington. Kazakhstan’s foreign policy approach to the war in Ukraine has been dictated by its unique geopolitical position. As a founding member of both the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Kazakhstan’s economic and security ties to Russia are extensive. At the same time, its leadership has consistently pursued a multivector foreign policy, balancing engagement with China, the European Union, and the United States. Tokayev’s refusal at the June 2022 St. Petersburg International Economic Forum to recognize the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics signalled Kazakhstan’s commitment to sovereignty and neutrality. In November 2022, Kazakhstan began to reduce Moscow’s leverage over its energy sector by sending oil for export via the Caspian Sea, into pipelines in the South Caucasus, bypassing the established route through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium via southern Russia. Had global policymakers taken Tokayev’s warnings more seriously in 2022 and 2023, certain escalations might have been mitigated. Kazakhstan was not alone in advocating for negotiations. Turkey brokered a grain shipment deal in 2022, and the Vatican attempted discreet backchannel diplomacy. However, Kazakhstan’s deep historical and economic ties to Russia gave its perspective unique weight. Kazakhstan’s approach was pragmatic. Western states viewed engagement as legitimizing Russian aggression. From Central Asia, however, the view was that indefinite warfare would destabilize Eurasia and inflict mounting costs on all stakeholders, not least Moscow. The West dismissed calls for diplomacy as naïve or as concessions to Moscow. Western leaders continued to believe military pressure, coupled with economic sanctions, was the only viable means of deterring Russian aggression. This may have been true if the military pressure had been an order of magnitude stronger from the beginning, rather than a slow drip of weapons systems that never had a chance of making a decisive difference. The reluctance of Western leaders to consider early diplomacy was not entirely unfounded. The atrocities committed by Russian forces in Bucha and Mariupol made any engagement politically fraught. Ukraine, emboldened by Western military aid, had every reason to resist diplomatic settlements that would lock in its territorial losses. Smaller states often possess a more acute awareness of the dangers of prolonged...

Crime

Kyrgyz Citizen Arrested in U.S. for Illegally Exporting Firearms to Russia

A Kyrgyz citizen has been accused of illegally exporting American semi-automatic rifles and pistols from the United States to Russia via Kyrgyzstan. The U.S. Department of Justice announced the charges on its official website. U.S. federal authorities in Brooklyn have indicted 46-year-old Kyrgyz national Sergei Zharnovnikov, alleging that he orchestrated a criminal scheme to smuggle American firearms to Russia using a front company. “Zharnovnikov traveled from Kyrgyzstan to the United States last month and was arrested on January 24, 2025, in Las Vegas, Nevada, while attending the Shooting, Hunting, and Outdoor Trade Show to meet with U.S. gun dealers,” the Department of Justice stated. Zharnovnikov is currently in custody and is set to stand trial in the Eastern District of New York at a later date. If convicted, he faces up to 30 years in prison. According to U.S. prosecutors, Zharnovnikov conspired with others to violate American export control laws by shipping firearms to Russian buyers. He reportedly signed a five-year, $900,000 contract with a Virginia-based arms company to export rifles from the U.S. to Kyrgyzstan. However, the company’s export license explicitly prohibited the resale or re-export of these weapons to Russia. Investigators allege that Zharnovnikov disregarded these restrictions, instead selling the firearms to a front company in Kyrgyzstan, which then transferred them to Russia. U.S. authorities discovered that the Bishkek-based company had signed a $10 million contract with a Moscow-based firm, suggesting the weapons may have been delivered in multiple shipments. U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District of New York John J. Durham emphasized the gravity of the case: “The defendant used a complex scheme to circumvent export controls and ship semi-automatic firearms to Russia. Today’s indictment sends a clear message that we will vigorously enforce laws designed to protect U.S. foreign policy and national security.” This is the second high-profile case involving the smuggling of American weapons to Russia. The Times of Central Asia previously reported that Kyrgyz security services had intercepted attempts to re-export American-made arms and weapons components to Russian organized crime groups.

Trump Administration

USAID Freeze Leaves Central Asian NGOs in Limbo

On January 20, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order suspending funding for most foreign aid programs for 90 days. The move has raised concerns among non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in Central Asia, particularly in Kazakhstan, which has long benefited from U.S. assistance. The order reads: “All heads of departments and agencies responsible for United States foreign development assistance programs shall immediately suspend new commitments and disbursements of development assistance funds to foreign countries and non-governmental implementing organizations, international organizations, and contractors pending a review of such programs for effectiveness and consistency with United States foreign policy to be conducted within 90 days of this order.” Following this directive, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio instructed all diplomatic and consular agencies to issue “stop-work orders” for nearly all active foreign assistance programs. Impact on Kazakhstan and Central Asia According to reports, the funding freeze is expected to affect university grant programs, entrepreneurial initiatives, gender diversity projects, and environmental efforts. The Trump administration has justified the decision by citing the need to reassess spending priorities. Kazakhstan and other Central Asian countries have received U.S. aid for decades. USAID, in particular, has played a significant role in regional development. The agency’s website states: “In Kazakhstan, USAID promotes the U.S. government's Central Asia Strategy, which supports and strengthens the sovereignty and independence of Central Asian countries, both individually and collectively. It also promotes regional connectivity between Central Asia and Afghanistan, advances the rule of law and respect for human rights, and improves the climate for U.S. investment to foster greater regional stability and prosperity.” Since 1992, USAID has funded projects in Kazakhstan focusing on economic diversification, energy, environmental protection, healthcare, and support for media and NGOs. In addition to funding NGOs, USAID collaborates with KazAID, Kazakhstan’s foreign aid agency operating under the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Reactions from NGO Leaders Denis Dzhivaga, director of the Kazakhstan International Bureau for Human Rights and Rule of Law (KIBHR), told The Times of Central Asia that the aid suspension had been anticipated. “Such a measure was expected," said Dzhivaga. "Even during the election campaign and Trump’s previous presidency, it was clear that he prioritized domestic policy over foreign influence. All NGOs working with USAID and receiving State Department assistance have received letters to halt projects.” However, Dzhivaga noted that KIBHR has limited cooperation with U.S. agencies, so the impact on his organization will be minimal. “In any case, this will negatively affect the NGO sector. The suspension is for three months pending an audit, but even USAID does not seem to know what will happen afterward. I don’t think U.S. assistance to Kazakhstan and Central Asia will stop entirely, but certain projects may be reconsidered - especially those related to discrimination, gender issues, and LGBT rights, as President Trump has already expressed opposition to such initiatives.” Replacing U.S. funding with alternative grants will be challenging, he added. “European donors are already struggling to finance Ukraine, so they are unlikely to allocate substantial funds elsewhere. Many U.S.-backed...