Kazakhstan must focus on its own interests at a time of uncertainty over the Trump administration’s global relations and alliances as well as pending appointments to key U.S. diplomatic posts for Central Asia, according to the head of a non-governmental group based in Almaty.
The comments by Karla Jamankulova, head of the free speech group Adil Soz, reflect a wider sense of vigilance in Central Asia. The region’s governments are monitoring and engaging Washington as the new U.S. administration moves to implement major, even stunning policy shifts, including warnings of tariffs on key trading partners, disruption of the longstanding U.S.-Europe alliance and a possible rapprochement with Russia after years of hostility.
It’s a critical time for Central Asian states that have generally sought to balance their relationships with big powers since independence from the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, rather than side with any one faction at the expense of another.
The war in Ukraine put that approach to the test as those countries did not express support for Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022 but maintained vital trade ties with it even as the West tried to isolate Moscow with economic sanctions. President Donald Trump has significantly shifted U.S. priorities, prompting other nations to reassess their own geopolitical strategies.
“Given the current uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Russia economic relations and the increasingly anti-China stance, it is now crucial to understand the contours of U.S.-Kazakhstan relations moving forward,” Jamankulova said on Facebook on Tuesday.
Her NGO has received funding for projects from the U.S. Embassy in the past, though such support appears to have ended since the Trump administration announced a freeze on nearly all foreign aid and took steps to dismantle the U.S. Agency for International Development. Jamankulova didn’t comment on a debate within Kazakhstan about whether such foreign funding benefits civil society, or is a tool of interference by foreign governments, or both. Nor did she talk about whether there might be differing views within Kazakhstan about national interests.
There are positive signs for Kazakhstan, specifically indications that the Trump administration would support bipartisan efforts to scrap the Jackson-Vanik amendment, a 50-year-old law that imposes some restrictions on trade with several countries in Central Asia. During his confirmation hearings for the post of secretary of state in January, U.S. Senator Marco Rubio described the amendment as “a relic of an era that’s passed.”
As secretary of state, Rubio spoke by telephone on Feb. 21 to Foreign Minister Bakhtiyor Saidov of Uzbekistan about increasing trade and expanding the strategic partnership between the two countries, according to an Uzbek readout. The U.S. State Department made similar comments.
In her Facebook post, Jamankulova said she was unaware of any similar discussions involving Foreign Minister Murat Nurtleu of Kazakhstan, though acknowledged that doesn’t necessarily mean there is a shift in U.S. priorities.
“The Atlantic Council has long advocated for Trump to be the first U.S. president to visit Central Asia. Kazakhstan appears to be on the radar. At the last C5+1 summit in 2023, it was agreed that the next high-level meeting would take place in Astana in 2025. Additionally, President Tokayev reportedly spoke with President-elect Trump in December last year,” Jamankulova said.
The NGO chief expressed concern that there is currently no U.S. ambassador in Kazakhstan. The highest-ranking diplomat is Deborah Robinson, the chargé d’affaires with experience in Uzbekistan, Pakistan and Afghanistan who arrived in Astana last year.
Another pending U.S. appointment is that of assistant secretary of state for South Asian affairs, whose portfolio includes Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. Trump has nominated South Asian security expert Paul Kapur, who is viewed by some analysts as a proponent of developing closer ties with India as a counterweight to China.
Amid the global maneuvers, Jamankulova warned: “As history has shown, no one will look out for us — except ourselves.”
