United States - The Times Of Central Asia

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Geopolitics

A Central Asian Perspective: Look Out for Ourselves as World Shifts

Kazakhstan must focus on its own interests at a time of uncertainty over the Trump administration’s global relations and alliances as well as pending appointments to key U.S. diplomatic posts for Central Asia, according to the head of a non-governmental group based in Almaty. The comments by Karla Jamankulova, head of the free speech group Adil Soz, reflect a wider sense of vigilance in Central Asia. The region’s governments are monitoring and engaging Washington as the new U.S. administration moves to implement major, even stunning policy shifts, including warnings of tariffs on key trading partners, disruption of the longstanding U.S.-Europe alliance and a possible rapprochement with Russia after years of hostility. It’s a critical time for Central Asian states that have generally sought to balance their relationships with big powers since independence from the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, rather than side with any one faction at the expense of another. The war in Ukraine put that approach to the test as those countries did not express support for Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022 but maintained vital trade ties with it even as the West tried to isolate Moscow with economic sanctions. President Donald Trump has significantly shifted U.S. priorities, prompting other nations to reassess their own geopolitical strategies. “Given the current uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Russia economic relations and the increasingly anti-China stance, it is now crucial to understand the contours of U.S.-Kazakhstan relations moving forward,” Jamankulova said on Facebook on Tuesday. Her NGO has received funding for projects from the U.S. Embassy in the past, though such support appears to have ended since the Trump administration announced a freeze on nearly all foreign aid and took steps to dismantle the U.S. Agency for International Development. Jamankulova didn’t comment on a debate within Kazakhstan about whether such foreign funding benefits civil society, or is a tool of interference by foreign governments, or both. Nor did she talk about whether there might be differing views within Kazakhstan about national interests. There are positive signs for Kazakhstan, specifically indications that the Trump administration would support bipartisan efforts to scrap the Jackson-Vanik amendment, a 50-year-old law that imposes some restrictions on trade with several countries in Central Asia. During his confirmation hearings for the post of secretary of state in January, U.S. Senator Marco Rubio described the amendment as “a relic of an era that’s passed.” As secretary of state, Rubio spoke by telephone on Feb. 21 to Foreign Minister Bakhtiyor Saidov of Uzbekistan about increasing trade and expanding the strategic partnership between the two countries, according to an Uzbek readout. The U.S. State Department made similar comments. In her Facebook post, Jamankulova said she was unaware of any similar discussions involving Foreign Minister Murat Nurtleu of Kazakhstan, though acknowledged that doesn’t necessarily mean there is a shift in U.S. priorities. “The Atlantic Council has long advocated for Trump to be the first U.S. president to visit Central Asia. Kazakhstan appears to be on the radar. At the last C5+1 summit in 2023,...

Politics

Why Kazakhstan’s Tokayev Was Right About Diplomacy in Ukraine

When the history of the war in Ukraine is written, one question demanding extended treatment will be why diplomacy remained sidelined for so long. Conflicts involving major powers and their proxies have in recent decades (think of Korea, Vietnam, and the Balkans) finished mainly not in outright military victories but in negotiated settlements. Now, with reports of U.S. President Donald Trump reaching directly out to his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, it is important to reassess why the long-standing insistence on diplomacy by Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev was not met with more support. Tokayev’s early insistence on negotiations was instead met with scepticism. As the war ground on, Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive (planned and mandated by Western advisors) failed while Russia’s entrenchment in the occupied territories continued. The fact that a Trump–Putin call has taken place, bypassing European leaders, underscores the shift of view in Washington. Kazakhstan’s foreign policy approach to the war in Ukraine has been dictated by its unique geopolitical position. As a founding member of both the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Kazakhstan’s economic and security ties to Russia are extensive. At the same time, its leadership has consistently pursued a multivector foreign policy, balancing engagement with China, the European Union, and the United States. Tokayev’s refusal at the June 2022 St. Petersburg International Economic Forum to recognize the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics signalled Kazakhstan’s commitment to sovereignty and neutrality. In November 2022, Kazakhstan began to reduce Moscow’s leverage over its energy sector by sending oil for export via the Caspian Sea, into pipelines in the South Caucasus, bypassing the established route through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium via southern Russia. Had global policymakers taken Tokayev’s warnings more seriously in 2022 and 2023, certain escalations might have been mitigated. Kazakhstan was not alone in advocating for negotiations. Turkey brokered a grain shipment deal in 2022, and the Vatican attempted discreet backchannel diplomacy. However, Kazakhstan’s deep historical and economic ties to Russia gave its perspective unique weight. Kazakhstan’s approach was pragmatic. Western states viewed engagement as legitimizing Russian aggression. From Central Asia, however, the view was that indefinite warfare would destabilize Eurasia and inflict mounting costs on all stakeholders, not least Moscow. The West dismissed calls for diplomacy as naïve or as concessions to Moscow. Western leaders continued to believe military pressure, coupled with economic sanctions, was the only viable means of deterring Russian aggression. This may have been true if the military pressure had been an order of magnitude stronger from the beginning, rather than a slow drip of weapons systems that never had a chance of making a decisive difference. The reluctance of Western leaders to consider early diplomacy was not entirely unfounded. The atrocities committed by Russian forces in Bucha and Mariupol made any engagement politically fraught. Ukraine, emboldened by Western military aid, had every reason to resist diplomatic settlements that would lock in its territorial losses. Smaller states often possess a more acute awareness of the dangers of prolonged...

Crime

Kyrgyz Citizen Arrested in U.S. for Illegally Exporting Firearms to Russia

A Kyrgyz citizen has been accused of illegally exporting American semi-automatic rifles and pistols from the United States to Russia via Kyrgyzstan. The U.S. Department of Justice announced the charges on its official website. U.S. federal authorities in Brooklyn have indicted 46-year-old Kyrgyz national Sergei Zharnovnikov, alleging that he orchestrated a criminal scheme to smuggle American firearms to Russia using a front company. “Zharnovnikov traveled from Kyrgyzstan to the United States last month and was arrested on January 24, 2025, in Las Vegas, Nevada, while attending the Shooting, Hunting, and Outdoor Trade Show to meet with U.S. gun dealers,” the Department of Justice stated. Zharnovnikov is currently in custody and is set to stand trial in the Eastern District of New York at a later date. If convicted, he faces up to 30 years in prison. According to U.S. prosecutors, Zharnovnikov conspired with others to violate American export control laws by shipping firearms to Russian buyers. He reportedly signed a five-year, $900,000 contract with a Virginia-based arms company to export rifles from the U.S. to Kyrgyzstan. However, the company’s export license explicitly prohibited the resale or re-export of these weapons to Russia. Investigators allege that Zharnovnikov disregarded these restrictions, instead selling the firearms to a front company in Kyrgyzstan, which then transferred them to Russia. U.S. authorities discovered that the Bishkek-based company had signed a $10 million contract with a Moscow-based firm, suggesting the weapons may have been delivered in multiple shipments. U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District of New York John J. Durham emphasized the gravity of the case: “The defendant used a complex scheme to circumvent export controls and ship semi-automatic firearms to Russia. Today’s indictment sends a clear message that we will vigorously enforce laws designed to protect U.S. foreign policy and national security.” This is the second high-profile case involving the smuggling of American weapons to Russia. The Times of Central Asia previously reported that Kyrgyz security services had intercepted attempts to re-export American-made arms and weapons components to Russian organized crime groups.

Trump Administration

USAID Freeze Leaves Central Asian NGOs in Limbo

On January 20, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order suspending funding for most foreign aid programs for 90 days. The move has raised concerns among non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in Central Asia, particularly in Kazakhstan, which has long benefited from U.S. assistance. The order reads: “All heads of departments and agencies responsible for United States foreign development assistance programs shall immediately suspend new commitments and disbursements of development assistance funds to foreign countries and non-governmental implementing organizations, international organizations, and contractors pending a review of such programs for effectiveness and consistency with United States foreign policy to be conducted within 90 days of this order.” Following this directive, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio instructed all diplomatic and consular agencies to issue “stop-work orders” for nearly all active foreign assistance programs. Impact on Kazakhstan and Central Asia According to reports, the funding freeze is expected to affect university grant programs, entrepreneurial initiatives, gender diversity projects, and environmental efforts. The Trump administration has justified the decision by citing the need to reassess spending priorities. Kazakhstan and other Central Asian countries have received U.S. aid for decades. USAID, in particular, has played a significant role in regional development. The agency’s website states: “In Kazakhstan, USAID promotes the U.S. government's Central Asia Strategy, which supports and strengthens the sovereignty and independence of Central Asian countries, both individually and collectively. It also promotes regional connectivity between Central Asia and Afghanistan, advances the rule of law and respect for human rights, and improves the climate for U.S. investment to foster greater regional stability and prosperity.” Since 1992, USAID has funded projects in Kazakhstan focusing on economic diversification, energy, environmental protection, healthcare, and support for media and NGOs. In addition to funding NGOs, USAID collaborates with KazAID, Kazakhstan’s foreign aid agency operating under the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Reactions from NGO Leaders Denis Dzhivaga, director of the Kazakhstan International Bureau for Human Rights and Rule of Law (KIBHR), told The Times of Central Asia that the aid suspension had been anticipated. “Such a measure was expected," said Dzhivaga. "Even during the election campaign and Trump’s previous presidency, it was clear that he prioritized domestic policy over foreign influence. All NGOs working with USAID and receiving State Department assistance have received letters to halt projects.” However, Dzhivaga noted that KIBHR has limited cooperation with U.S. agencies, so the impact on his organization will be minimal. “In any case, this will negatively affect the NGO sector. The suspension is for three months pending an audit, but even USAID does not seem to know what will happen afterward. I don’t think U.S. assistance to Kazakhstan and Central Asia will stop entirely, but certain projects may be reconsidered - especially those related to discrimination, gender issues, and LGBT rights, as President Trump has already expressed opposition to such initiatives.” Replacing U.S. funding with alternative grants will be challenging, he added. “European donors are already struggling to finance Ukraine, so they are unlikely to allocate substantial funds elsewhere. Many U.S.-backed...

Nuclear power

Kazakhstan’s Nuclear Power Move and Implications for the West

Kazakhstan’s recent referendum approving the construction of its first nuclear power plant (NPP) is a watershed moment. More than a domestic policy decision, this move puts into relief Kazakhstan's strategy for positioning itself as a linchpin in the diversification of global energy supply chains, with the world's largest uranium reserves accounting for nearly 40% of the global supply and a key geographic location. The country's ambitions align with the broader resurgence of nuclear power as an indispensable component of a sustainable energy future, countering decades of stagnation in the West and challenging the dominance of Russia and China. The renewed attention on nuclear energy arises from a convergence of systemic and technological factors. Environmental pressures to reduce reliance on fossil fuels such as gas and coal have left energy producers searching for scalable, reliable alternatives. Renewable energy sources like wind and solar, while important, remain limited by intermittency and storage challenges. At the same time, safety concerns rooted in historical disasters — Chernobyl, Three Mile Island, and Fukushima — have been mitigated by advances in reactor technology. A growing public recognition of nuclear power's viability has resulted. In this context, Kazakhstan's entry into the nuclear power arena is logical. Enhancing its ability to integrate uranium extraction with downstream nuclear fuel production would underscore its potential to play a central role in addressing global energy needs. By fostering international partnerships, Kazakhstan can leverage its resource wealth to become a critical supplier for advanced economies looking to diversify their energy mix. Kazakhstan's move comes at a time of shifting geoeconomic dynamics in the nuclear energy sector. Over the past three decades, Russia and China have consolidated their dominance, exploiting the West’s inertia. Russia has used NPP construction as a geoeconomic tool, creating dependence in such countries as Turkey and Uzbekistan. China, meanwhile, has aggressively developed its domestic nuclear infrastructure while securing global uranium supplies, particularly through investments in Africa and Central Asia. By contrast, Western nations have lagged behind, plagued by fragmented project management, skilled labor shortages, and political resistance. Anti-nuclear movements, many of which gained momentum during the Cold War with Soviet backing, have continued to stymie development in Europe and North America. The resulting industrial inertia has left Western economies vulnerable, with insufficient capacity to meet rising energy demands or counterbalance Russian and Chinese influence. Kazakhstan's emergence offers the West a rare opportunity to reverse this trend. The country’s multi-vector diplomatic strategy, emphasizing balanced relations with global powers, makes it an ideal partner for rebalancing energy supply chains. Kazakhstan’s role in global energy extends beyond uranium. The country’s geological resources overlap with deposits of rare-earth elements (REEs), which are vital for advanced defense technologies, renewable energy systems, and high-tech manufacturing. The shared extraction technologies and logistical infrastructure for uranium and REEs present opportunities for integrated resource development. NATO’s Partnership for Peace (PfP) program could play a pivotal role in this regard. By incorporating rare-earth mining and supply chain security into NATO’s Critical Energy Infrastructure Protection (CEIP) framework, member states could...

Jackson-Vanik Amendment

Trump Nominee Marco Rubio Signals Support for Normalizing Central Asia Trade

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for secretary of state says the Jackson-Vanik amendment, a 50-year-old law that imposes some restrictions on trade with several countries in Central Asia, is “a relic of an era that’s passed.” U.S. Senator Marco Rubio, a Florida Republican who spoke on Wednesday during a confirmation hearing in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, also described China, a key economic partner in Central Asia, as a threat and an adversary. Rubio, known as a hawk on national security issues, had harsh words too for what he called chaos-sowing “dictators” in Moscow, Tehran and Pyongyang. Tough language aside, Rubio’s interactions with his fellow senators were relatively smooth, suggesting his path to the secretary of state job is open as the United States prepares for Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20. Central Asian nations have been watching for what to expect when Trump returns for a second term in the White House, and they got an encouraging glimpse in Rubio’s testimony. In the Washington hearing, Senator Steve Daines, a Montana Republican, told Rubio that he and Senator Gary Peters, a Michigan Democrat, have been working to rescind the Jackson-Vanik amendment in Central Asia. The 1974 law, passed at the height of the Cold War, aimed to promote human rights in countries that were part of the Soviet bloc by preventing normal trade relations with “non-market economies” that restrict emigration. But Daines argued that it is outdated in the former Soviet republics of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, especially as Central Asia becomes more important because of its energy resources and geopolitical influence. “I realize you have a lot of priorities on your plate when you will be confirmed as our secretary,” Daines said to Rubio. He added that rescinding the amendment in the region would be a big step “that Central Asia needs right now to grow.” In response, Rubio said that permanent removal of the amendment in Central Asia would require legislative approval and he mentioned an initiative by Senators Chris Murphy (Connecticut Democrat) and Todd Young (Indiana Republican) that also seeks to peal the measure for Tajikistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. “I think this is a relic of an era that’s passed,” Rubio said of the Jackson-Vanik amendment. “There are some that argue that we should use it as leverage for human rights concessions, or leverage to get them to go stronger in our way” against Russia, he said. However, the Florida senator said, Kazakhstan is a market economy and therefore meets conditions for removal from the amendment’s restrictions. He added: “So we will work with you on this because I think it’s important.” Kazakhstan became a member of the World Trade Organization in 2015, two years after Tajikistan joined the group. Uzbekistan has been signing individual agreements with countries and hopes to join the WTO by 2026. Kyrgyzstan, Ukraine and Russia are among former Soviet states that were subject to the Jackson-Vanik amendment but later achieved normal trade relations status with the United States. Russia, however, is currently under Western...