Water Security - The Times Of Central Asia

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Insider’s View: Tashkent’s Water Diplomacy – From National Reforms to Regional Synergy in Central Asia

On April 22, a summit of the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (IFAS), one of the region's prominent organizations, takes place in Astana. The meeting of the Heads of the Founding States is especially significant because it marks the transition of the Fund's chairmanship to Uzbekistan for the 2027-2029 period. This will be our country's third mandate, following leadership terms in 1997-1999 and 2013-2016. Tashkent was at the forefront of the creation of IFAS. Yet returning to this leadership role after a decade comes in a fundamentally transformed regional landscape. Today, Uzbekistan brings not only substantial experience but also a broad portfolio of initiatives that have received international recognition. The Transformation of Uzbekistan's Water Sector for Sustainable Development Facing intensifying climate pressures alongside strong economic and demographic growth, Uzbekistan has made the restructuring of water resource management a core priority of state policy. The scale of the challenge is clear in the data. Over the last 15 years, per capita water availability in the republic has fallen by more than half, from 3,000 to 1,400 cubic meters per year. According to the Ministry of Water Resources, the annual volume of water resources has dropped to 51-53 billion cubic meters, a 21% decline from 1991 levels of 64 billion cubic meters. A major challenge remains the country's high dependence on external sources, as approximately 80% of surface water, or 41 billion cubic meters, originates outside the country. While the water shortage did not exceed 3 billion cubic meters prior to 2015, expert forecasts indicate that the deficit could reach 7 billion cubic meters by 2030 and 15 billion cubic meters by 2050. Recognizing the scale of these risks, Uzbekistan, under the leadership of Shavkat Mirziyoyev, is pursuing broad technological modernization of the water sector. In less than a decade, the area using water-saving technologies has grown from 28,000 hectares to more than 2.6 million hectares, now covering more than 60% of all irrigated land. At the same time, large-scale work continues across the country on canal concreting and the reconstruction of flume networks. By 2030, these systemic measures are projected to yield annual savings of up to 15 billion cubic meters of water. At the same time, the sector is undergoing digitalization. Currently, 11 information platforms are being deployed to manage the water cadastre, monitor pumping stations, and track land reclamation status. Over the past four years, the management of 100 major water facilities has been fully automated, the Smart Water system has been introduced at 13,000 water intake points, and more than 1,700 pumping stations have been equipped with real-time online monitoring devices. At the same time, the national economic model is also adapting. According to the Center for Economic Research and Reforms, the share of agriculture in GDP has declined from 32% in 2017 to 19% by 2024. Notably, against this backdrop, total agricultural production has increased by 17%. This divergence points to a transition toward more efficient resource use and higher productivity. Regional Synergy and Water...

Regional Ecological Summit

Astana Is Turning Ecology into Regional Statecraft

On April 22–24, Astana will host the Regional Ecological Summit with the participation of numerous United Nations agencies and international partners. It is expected to produce a joint declaration and a Regional Program of Action for 2026–2030, giving it a formal ambition beyond that of a standard diplomatic conference. Kazakhstan is presenting the event as a region-wide platform through which shared ecological pressures may become a more regular channel for Central Asian coordination. Officially, the summit is framed as a platform for regional solutions to climate and environmental challenges. It is also a more ambitious test of whether Kazakhstan can use ecology to sustain a more regular pattern of regional cooperation under multilateral auspices. Here, Astana is using ecology to include water, health, food systems, natural-resource management, pollution, resilience, and financing. The broader the issue area becomes, the more usable it is as a basis for cooperation among states whose interests diverge elsewhere. The summit grew out of the Regional Climate Summit that President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev proposed at the Astana International Forum in June 2023. Since then, the agenda has widened from climate policy in the narrow sense to ecology more generally. This broadening fits the constraints the five Central Asian states share, which extend beyond emissions or adaptation metrics. They include water stress, land degradation, cross-border environmental risks, public-health effects, and the need for outside financing and technical coordination. A climate-only frame would have been too narrow for those overlapping pressures. The broader ecological frame is therefore more politically useful. The meeting also has a prehistory in earlier regional backing and multilateral development. A key point came on July 21, 2022, at the Fourth Consultative Meeting of Central Asian heads of state in Cholpon Ata, where the Green Agenda Regional Program for Central Asia was adopted. At the same meeting, a joint statement, a roadmap for regional cooperation for 2022–2024, and a concept for Central Asian interaction in multilateral formats were also adopted. The Green Agenda itself was linked to decarbonization, alternative energy, mutual electricity supply, water-saving and environmentally friendly technologies, and the rational use of water resources. Later UNDP material tied that program more explicitly to regional cooperation on climate action, water and energy management, and the use of United Nations platforms for advancing shared initiatives. The Astana summit builds on that earlier momentum. The scale of the UN presence indicates that the summit is meant as more than a ceremonial gathering. UN Kazakhstan says that 18 UN agencies are co-organizing 27 sessions and five workshops. For a regional meeting of this kind, that is a dense working structure. The same UN summary says that one expected outcome is a Joint Declaration by the Heads of State of Central Asia on regional environmental cooperation, followed by a Program of Action for 2026–2030 developed in partnership with the United Nations. Kazakhstan’s own framing presents the summit as a permanent platform for dialogue among governments, international organizations, scientific institutions, business, and civil society. The event is thus situated at the...

Regional Ecological Summit

Regional Ecological Summit to Open in Astana Amid Pressure on Water, Trade, and Regional Cooperation

When the Regional Ecological Summit (RES 2026) opens in Astana this Wednesday, the official framing will center on Shared Vision for a Resilient Future, combining practical regional solutions with diplomatic ambitions that include a Joint Declaration and a 2026-2030 Program of Action. Behind that language sits a harder reality. Water and energy officials in Tashkent, Bishkek, and Astana are dealing with a region which is drying out faster than its infrastructure and politics are adapting. That gives the summit a sharper edge than earlier environmental gatherings. Two issues stand out: the management of winter water-sharing arrangements ahead of the irrigation season, and the way the shrinking Caspian could constrain the Middle Corridor. The Toktogul Equation: A Fragile "Winter-for-Summer" Swap The most immediate point of pressure is the Toktogul Reservoir in Kyrgyzstan. In late 2025, an agreement was reached under which Kyrgyzstan would limit winter hydropower generation, preserving water for downstream Kazakh and Uzbek farmers, in exchange for electricity supplies from its neighbors. The arrangement remains in place, but its durability will be tested as summer demand rises. One question hanging over the summit is whether Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan will provide enough power support to help Kyrgyzstan conserve water without reopening old upstream-downstream tensions. For downstream states, that is not only a water issue but an agricultural and political one. The Caspian Emergency: Depth as a Trade Barrier For years, the shallowing of the Caspian was treated as a long-term problem. In 2026, it is becoming an operational one. According to recent reporting, Aktau port is operating at an average depth of 4.5 meters, far below the 6.5 to 7 meters needed for full operations. The summit will also highlight the Integrated Management of Seascapes project. The UNDP-linked initiative is intended to balance the need for dredging and port access with protection of the northern Caspian’s fragile ecosystem. That tension is no longer theoretical. It now touches trade, shipping capacity, and the future of the corridor itself. The Digital Transition One of the summit’s more concrete strands is the National Water Resources Information System. According to the Kazakh government, the system is to enter industrial operation by the end of 2026. The plan is to automate 103 irrigation canals in southern Kazakhstan using $1.15 billion in financing from the Islamic Development Bank. The broader regional test is whether neighboring states will share enough data to support a cross-border water monitoring system, giving officials a clearer view of how shared resources are being managed. The Green Energy Corridor Alongside the water agenda, the Green Energy Corridor remains one of the projects that clearly aligns Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Uzbekistan. The plan is to transmit green electricity to Europe via a subsea cable across the Caspian. CESI is finalizing the feasibility study, pointing to an export model that leans less on hydrocarbons and more on regional infrastructure. It also shows how environmental pressure and economic strategy are starting to overlap. For Central Asian governments, climate policy is no longer only about adaptation. It is...

Regional Ecological Summit

Kazakhstan’s Regional Ecological Summit 2026: What It Is and Why It Matters

Kazakhstan’s Regional Ecological Summit 2026 in Astana on April 22-24 is aiming to turn Central Asia’s environmental strain into a regional political agenda. Organized in partnership with the United Nations, the summit is built around the theme, “Shared Vision for a Resilient Future.” Its stated purpose is to bring together governments, international organizations, lenders, businesses, researchers, and civil society to push for joint and practical responses to climate and ecological pressures across the region. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev first proposed hosting a regional climate summit in Kazakhstan under UN auspices during his 2023 speech at the 78th session of the UN General Assembly. By 2026, that idea had broadened into a wider environmental summit covering climate transition, adaptation, food security, natural resource management, air pollution, waste, finance, and environmental skills. The official key thematic directions show that this is no longer a narrowly framed climate conference. It is being presented as a broader Central Asian platform for ecological cooperation. In Central Asia, ecological stress now shapes core state concerns, from farming and energy to public health and cross-border cooperation. That gives the Astana summit a broader role than a standard environment conference. That shift reflects real regional pressures. Central Asia faces chronic water stress, glacier retreat, desertification, air pollution, and growing strain on ecosystems. The summit’s organizers say the meeting is meant to produce joint solutions rather than another round of abstract pledges. The UN in Kazakhstan says the summit is expected to advance shared regional responses and identify green financing needs, while a second UN page states that one planned outcome is a Joint Declaration by the heads of state of Central Asia, alongside a 2026-2030 Programme of Action developed with the United Nations. Tokayev’s own language explains the summit’s pitch. On August 5, 2025, speaking at the Third United Nations Conference on Landlocked Developing Countries in Awaza, Turkmenistan, he said, “Many developing countries without access to the sea are facing water scarcity, glacier melt, desertification, and other extreme weather events. Addressing these challenges requires coordinated regional efforts and strong international support. At the same time, I believe that measures to combat climate change must remain balanced and inclusive, and respond to the legitimate development needs of countries. To strengthen our joint efforts in addressing climate change, I invite you to the Regional Ecological Summit, which will be held in Astana in partnership with the United Nations.” The wording shows how Kazakhstan wants to frame the event. Central Asia’s environmental problems cross borders, but the response, in Tokayev’s view, must also accommodate growth, infrastructure, and development. That is why the summit is being presented not just as a climate gathering, but as a forum linking ecological policy, investment, technology, and state planning. The EXPO component is part of that design. Government and investment-promotion pages say the parallel exhibition will focus on green technologies, ESG tools, and practical climate solutions, linking diplomacy to project finance and implementation. The summit’s speaker list underlines its international reach. The official RES 2026 page includes...

Northern Aral Sea Rescue Project

Astana Accelerates Northern Aral Sea Recovery Plan

The Kazakh government plans to accelerate the second phase of the project to restore the Northern Aral Sea. Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov has instructed the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation to secure financing for the second phase of the project by the end of 2026. The goal is to increase the volume of water in the Northern Aral Sea by around 10–11 billion cubic meters over the next four to five years. History of Degradation and Early Restoration Results The Aral Sea, which straddles the border between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, began to shrink rapidly in the 1960s due to large-scale irrigation projects that diverted water from the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers for cotton cultivation and other agricultural needs. As a result of the sea’s degradation, the Northern Aral Sea separated in 1987 and has since been sustained largely through the construction of the Kokaral Dam. In 2012, the sea and the Syr Darya delta were added to the Ramsar List of Wetlands of International Importance. Since then, Kazakhstan has undertaken systematic efforts to restore the northern part of the former Aral Sea. Unlike earlier efforts to save the Aral Sea as a whole, Kazakhstan’s approach since the mid-2000s has been shaped by a narrower and more pragmatic premise: that partial restoration is environmentally and politically achievable, while attempts to revive the entire basin are not. The construction of the Kokaral Dam marked a turning point, demonstrating that targeted hydraulic interventions could stabilise water levels, reduce salinity, and revive fisheries in the northern basin, provided expectations were kept within achievable limits. The recovery has already enabled the return of small-scale fishing, improved local livelihoods, and reduced dust storms from the exposed seabed around Aralsk. This strategy reflected a deliberate acceptance that restoring the Northern Aral would come at the expense of the southern basin, prioritising long-term ecological viability over symbolic ambitions. Over the past several years, roughly 5 billion cubic meters of water have been redirected into the Northern Aral Sea basin, increasing its total volume to more than 23 billion cubic meters. This exceeds the targets set out in Kazakhstan's Water Resources Management Concept, which had forecast reaching 20.6 billion cubic meters by 2025, with that volume previously expected only by 2029. [caption id="attachment_24691" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] Tastubek Bay, Northern Aral Sea; image: TCA, Stephen M. Bland[/caption] Infrastructure Plans and International Support With the support of the World Bank, Kazakhstan is considering raising the height of the Kokaral Dam by up to two meters and constructing a new hydraulic facility. These upgrades aim to increase both the volume and quality of water in the Northern Aral Sea, rehabilitate the Syr Darya delta, and reduce salt dispersion from the exposed seabed. The second phase of the initiative targets increasing the sea’s volume to 34 billion cubic meters. Bektenov has directed the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation to finalize technical preparations by mid-2026 and secure financing by the end of the year, including through international partnerships. The second phase...

Water Security

Glacier Melt Threatens Central Asia’s Water Security, Experts Warn at Regional Forum

The accelerating retreat of glaciers poses a serious risk to water security across Central and West Asia, scientists and journalists warned during an online media forum jointly hosted by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) on December 10, according to Asia-Plus. The forum focused on the growing impact of glacial melt in mountain regions, including the Pamirs, Tien Shan, Hindu Kush, and Himalayas, where shrinking ice reserves are increasingly disrupting water supplies for agriculture, energy, and drinking water. A key highlight was the ADB’s Glacier to Farms (G2F) program, presented by senior climate adaptation specialist Chris Dickinson. The initiative, spanning nine countries including Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Armenia, and Georgia, aims to link glacier monitoring with practical, climate-resilient policy measures. Unlike past approaches that primarily diagnosed the problem, G2F offers technical and financial solutions designed to support communities in adapting to climate change. The $3.5 billion initiative, backed in part by $250 million from the Green Climate Fund, leverages a co-financing model that aims to attract $10 in additional investment for every dollar committed. The program envisions a full climate adaptation chain from satellite-based glacier monitoring and mountain observation stations to downstream interventions such as crop insurance, farmer support, and modernization of water infrastructure. “Glaciers are the origin of the entire food and water system,” Dickinson said. “Their rapid retreat threatens lives and livelihoods far beyond mountain regions.” Tajikistan serves as a pilot site for the program due to its heavy reliance on hydropower and its largely mountainous terrain. One of the project's key goals is to enhance the country’s hydrometeorological services and strengthen monitoring of snow cover, glacier movement, landslides, and related hazards. A modern early warning system is being developed for the Panj River basin, combining data on glacial lakes, mudflows, precipitation, and seismic activity. The alerts will be sent to vulnerable communities via mobile networks, complemented by local training programs to ensure proper responses. Forum participants noted that the effects of glacial retreat are already evident. Glaciers in the Tien Shan and Pamir ranges feed the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers, vital water sources for Central Asia’s agriculture, energy, and drinking needs. An estimated 74% of the Amu Darya’s flow comes from snow and glacier melt. In the Indus basin, the figure is about 40%. Yet only a small number of the region’s more than 54,000 glaciers are regularly monitored, leaving gaps in early warning systems and long-term planning. Experts from ICIMOD and ADB described glacier melt as a “cascading crisis.” Rising temperatures are fueling more frequent landslides, floods, and mudflows, while droughts reduce crop yields and damage pastures. Glacial lake outburst floods, sudden and destructive releases of water, pose grave risks to nearby settlements. Since the 19th century, the region has recorded around 500 such incidents, and their frequency could triple by the end of this century. Heatwaves and water quality issues further compound the risks. Recent glacial activity in Tajikistan underscored the forum’s urgency. In October, a massive...