World Bank - The Times Of Central Asia

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Child Poverty

World Bank: Poverty Falls in Kazakhstan, but Inequality and Child Poverty Persist

The World Bank has released a comprehensive report on poverty in Kazakhstan, analyzing trends from 2006 to 2021. Presented to journalists in Almaty, the report paints a detailed picture of the country's evolving socio-economic landscape. Defining Poverty Poverty is broadly defined as the inability to meet basic human needs, including food, clothing, clean water, sanitation, education, and healthcare. One standard measure is the subsistence minimum set by the government. As of 2021, the international poverty line was $3 per person per day in low-income countries. For upper-middle-income economies like Kazakhstan, the threshold was set at $8.30 per day. [caption id="attachment_33210" align="alignnone" width="300"] @pip.worldbank.org[/caption] From Poverty to the Middle Class Over 15 years, Kazakhstan witnessed substantial economic growth. Per capita consumption doubled, and GDP per capita rose from 548,900 to 791,300 tenge (KZT). An estimated six million people were lifted out of poverty, and the country advanced into the category of upper-middle-income economies. The World Bank identifies three distinct phases of development: 2006-2013 - Growth: Economic expansion and proactive social policies reduced poverty from 49.5% to 11.1% 2014-2016 - Crisis: A sharp decline in oil prices and the devaluation of the tenge saw poverty spike to 20.2% 2016-2021 - Stabilization: Economic recovery brought the poverty rate down to 8.5% [caption id="attachment_33211" align="alignnone" width="300"] @worldbank.org[/caption] A Rising Middle Class Between 2006 and 2021, the share of Kazakhstan’s population considered middle class increased from 26 percent to 67 percent. The World Bank defines the middle class as individuals who are neither poor nor economically vulnerable. This growth was driven by rising incomes, pensions, and social assistance programs. However, progress began to slow after 2013 due to ongoing structural challenges, low productivity, dependence on extractive industries, and a weak private sector. Child Poverty: An Alarming Trend National gains have not eliminated regional disparities. In the Turkistan region, poverty rose from 14.4 percent in 2006 to 24 percent in 2021. [caption id="attachment_33212" align="alignnone" width="300"] @worldbank.org[/caption] Demographic shifts in poverty are also concerning. The poor are increasingly younger, less educated, and from large families. Child poverty is especially acute: 13% of children live below the poverty line, comprising 40% of the country's poor. In other words, every eighth child in Kazakhstan is living in poverty. [caption id="attachment_33213" align="alignnone" width="300"] @worldbank.org[/caption] Consumption and Inequality Rising consumption, measured via purchasing power parity (PPP), has been the main driver of poverty reduction. Indicators like the Big Mac Index offer accessible insights into shifts in purchasing power. Growth in incomes, pensions, and the small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) sector also contributed, while emergency government support during the COVID-19 pandemic helped avert a sharp decline in living standards. Nevertheless, inequality is on the rise. Since 2016, the Gini Index has shown a growing gap. The wealthiest 10% of Kazakhstanis now spend three times more than the poorest 10%. While this inequality remains moderate by global standards, the upward trend is cause for concern. [caption id="attachment_33214" align="alignnone" width="300"] @worldbank.org[/caption] Looking Ahead World Bank analysts acknowledge Kazakhstan’s progress in reducing poverty. However, they...

Hydropower

Dubai Hosts Talks on Major Central Asian Hydropower Project

On May 26-27, 2025, energy ministers from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan met in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, for the second high-level meeting on the Kambarata-1 Hydropower Plant (HPP) project. The meeting was organized with the support of the World Bank, according to Kyrgyzstan’s Ministry of Energy. Kambarata-1 is a flagship regional initiative designed to enhance energy security and water management across Central Asia. The planned hydropower facility, with a capacity of 1,860 megawatts, will be constructed on the Naryn River in Kyrgyzstan. The delegations were led by Energy Ministers Yerlan Akkenzhenov (Kazakhstan), Taalaibek Ibraev (Kyrgyzstan), and Jurabek Mirzamakhmudov (Uzbekistan). High-level representatives from the finance and water ministries of the three countries also participated. During the meeting, the ministers formally requested technical assistance from the World Bank. This includes an updated feasibility study, environmental and social impact assessments, and the development of a robust financial and commercial implementation model. The World Bank delegation featured several senior officials, including Tatiana Proskuryakova, Regional Director for Central Asia; Carolina Sánchez-Páramo, Director for Strategy and Operations in Europe and Central Asia (ECA); Charles Joseph Cormier, Regional Infrastructure Director for ECA; and Stephanie Gil, Program Leader for Energy. “We are pleased to support the governments of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan in advancing the Kambarata-1 project,” said Proskuryakova. “It will bring major economic and social benefits to the region.” The ministers reiterated their commitment to the project, describing it as a cornerstone of regional energy integration. Participants reviewed progress since the first roundtable in Tashkent in January 2025. Discussions focused on revised cost estimates, grid modernization needs, financing strategies, and the importance of strong environmental and social safeguards. Kazakhstan’s Yerlan Akkenzhenov highlighted the collaborative nature of the initiative: “Kazakhstan fully supports this project and will continue working closely with its regional partners.” Kyrgyzstan’s Taalaibek Ibraev underscored the national significance of the HPP: “This project is the foundation of Kyrgyzstan’s energy strategy. We are proud to implement it in partnership with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.” Uzbekistan’s Jurabek Mirzamakhmudov referenced the tangible progress already made: “With joint efforts and international backing, we are confident in our ability to realize this project according to global standards.” The ministers agreed on specific next steps and timelines for project preparation and pledged to hold regular meetings to ensure steady progress. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, the Kambarata-1 HPP will be located in the upper reaches of the Naryn River in Kyrgyzstan. Once completed, it is expected to generate approximately 5.6 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually. The estimated construction cost exceeds $4 billion.

Electricity

World Bank Approves $100 Million to Modernize Uzbekistan’s Power Grid

The World Bank has approved a $100 million credit to support the modernization of Uzbekistan’s electricity distribution system and facilitate the integration of renewable energy sources. Uzbekistan’s Regional Electric Power Networks (REPN) will contribute an additional $50 million to the initiative, marking the country’s first use of the World Bank’s Program-for-Results (PforR) financing model. Uzbekistan’s aging power distribution infrastructure poses serious challenges. Over 50% of the network is more than 30 years old and suffers from significant inefficiencies. As of 2024, technical issues contribute to the loss of approximately 13% of electricity, resulting in frequent outages across the country. The government has set a target of installing 25 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity by 2030. However, experts warn that without immediate upgrades to the national grid, Uzbekistan’s infrastructure will be unable to accommodate this expansion. In addition to technical improvements, the government is working to reduce commercial losses and enhance the financial viability of the electricity sector to attract private investment. Tatiana Proskuryakova, World Bank Country Director for Central Asia, highlighted the scale of the challenge. “The total investment needed is about $3 billion. We hope other development partners and private investors will join us in supporting REPN in this crucial effort,” she said. The combined $150 million from the World Bank and REPN will be deployed over the next five years to upgrade and expand infrastructure, particularly in regions such as Karakalpakstan and Surkhandarya. Planned improvements include: Construction or modernization of 6,000 kilometers of power lines Installation of 1,200 transformers Connection of 150,000 smart meters Deployment of 4,000 data concentrators to improve automation The program also aims to enhance REPN’s operational and financial management. It includes the development of advanced planning methodologies, strengthened financial oversight, and support for corporate governance reforms. By 2029, the initiative is expected to increase customer satisfaction, reduce annual CO₂ emissions by up to 450,000 tons, and raise the proportion of women in technical and leadership roles from 9% to 14%. Earlier this year, the World Bank also approved $153 million in support of a project aimed at reforestation and combating land degradation in Uzbekistan, as part of a broader regional climate resilience program.

Aral Sea

Kazakhstan and World Bank Launch Second Phase to Revive Northern Aral Sea

In partnership with the World Bank, the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation of Kazakhstan has launched the second phase of a long-term initiative to restore the Northern Aral Sea. This stage aims to revive the region’s ecosystem and enhance the quality of life for local communities. Feasibility Study Underway Key objectives of this phase include reconstructing the Kokaral Dam and raising the sea level to 44 meters, measured using the Baltic height system. Plans also call for constructing a water control facility near the village of Amanotkel, designed to regulate water distribution within the Akshatau and Kamystybas lake systems in Kyzylorda Region’s Aral District. A technical feasibility study is expected to be completed by December 2025. Once implemented, these measures are projected to expand the Northern Aral Sea’s surface area to 3,913 square kilometers, increasing its total water volume to 34 cubic kilometers. The full refill process is anticipated to take four to five years, based on hydrological data from the Syr Darya River basin covering the period 1913-2019. Strategic Decisions on Dam Reconstruction The current conservation strategy was finalized following consultations with local authorities and water management experts. Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation Nurzhan Nurzhigitov stated that the plan reflects the region’s actual hydrological conditions and was selected for its balance of timeliness and efficacy. “We evaluated multiple implementation options. Discussions with residents and industry veterans helped guide our decision. The final plan was deemed optimal after all relevant factors were considered,” Nurzhigitov said. Sameh Wahba, the World Bank’s Regional Director for Europe and Central Asia, underscored the project’s ecological and economic significance. He confirmed that the World Bank not only funded the feasibility study but remains committed to supporting the project through its next stages. According to Wahba, the initiative is expected to create jobs and stimulate sectors such as fisheries, agriculture, and tourism. Progress Achieved in the First Phase The first phase of the rescue effort has already delivered tangible benefits. Water volume in the Northern Aral Sea has risen by 42%, reaching 27 billion cubic meters, while salinity has dropped nearly fourfold. Annual fish yields have climbed to 8,000 tons. In 2024 alone, a record 2.6 billion cubic meters of water were channeled into the sea, with 1 billion cubic meters allocated for irrigation. Beyond water volume and quality, the project aims to revitalize the Syr Darya River delta, curb salt deposition, and bolster the fishing industry. Employment opportunities and improved living conditions for local populations are also key targets. Long-Term Threats to Water Security The sustainability of these efforts may be challenged by regional developments. During the international conference “Water Security and Transboundary Water Use: Challenges and Solutions” in Astana, Kazakhstan’s Deputy Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation, Aslan Abdraimov, warned of the potential impact of Afghanistan’s Kosh-Tepa Canal on Central Asian water systems. Despite the absence of a direct border between Kazakhstan and Afghanistan, Abdraimov stated that the canal could eventually reduce the flow of the Syr Darya River. “No sharp fluctuations...

Rogun Dam

World Bank to Investigate Regional Risks of Rogun Dam Project

The World Bank’s Inspection Panel has agreed to review a formal complaint filed by residents of Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan concerning the environmental and social risks associated with the Rogun Hydropower Project (HPP) in Tajikistan. The complaint, submitted by the regional environmental coalition Rivers Without Boundaries, targets a $350 million World Bank loan and related technical assistance used to revise the project’s 2014 environmental and social impact assessments. The complainants argue that the current studies are outdated and inadequate, relying on assumptions that are more than a decade old. They contend the assessments fail to account for the downstream effects of storing and diverting water from the Vakhsh River, one of the primary tributaries of the Amu Darya basin, on communities and ecosystems in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Preliminary estimates from the World Bank suggest that filling the Rogun reservoir could decrease the flow into the Aral Sea by 0.8 to 1.2 cubic kilometers annually, potentially cutting today’s levels by as much as 25%. Such a reduction, critics warn, could exacerbate ongoing issues in the region, including desertification, soil salinity, and land degradation. These challenges have plagued villages in the lower Amu Darya since Soviet-era irrigation schemes dramatically reduced the sea’s volume, leading to persistent dust storms and declining water quality. Local farmers are particularly concerned about the dam’s effect on the timing of water availability. If the dam shifts the river’s flow from spring and summer into winter storage, it could disrupt traditional irrigation cycles, forcing expensive infrastructure adjustments. Some communities fear economic collapse and forced migration if water needs go unmet during critical planting seasons. Environmental experts also highlight the cumulative threat posed by the Rogun HPP in conjunction with Afghanistan’s planned Qosh Tepa canal. No comprehensive analysis has been conducted to evaluate the combined impact of these two major water diversion projects on regional hydrology and biodiversity. The World Bank itself estimates that climate change could reduce water availability in the region by 15-30% by 2050, potentially costing Uzbekistan up to 250,000 agricultural jobs and requiring billions in climate adaptation investments. In response, Rivers Without Boundaries has called on the World Bank and its co-financiers, who have collectively pledged over $1 billion, to suspend further funding until a transparent, independent risk assessment is completed. The coalition advocates for a thorough study of alternative project designs, such as a lower dam height, to mitigate environmental and social damage. They also demand genuine public consultation with all Amu Darya basin countries, equitable compensation mechanisms, and legally binding water management agreements. Failure to address these concerns, the group warns, risks triggering an irreversible ecological and humanitarian crisis across Central Asia.

Energy Security

Kyrgyz Prime Minister Kasymaliev in Washington for IMF, World Bank Meetings

Kyrgyz Prime Minister Adylbek Kasymaliev has arrived in Washington, D.C. to participate in the Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Group. During his visit, Kasymaliev is expected to meet with senior World Bank officials to discuss ongoing and future investment projects in Kyrgyzstan. Following the IMF and World Bank sessions, Kasymaliev is scheduled to hold high-level talks with Anna Bjerde, the World Bank’s Managing Director for Operations, and Antonella Bassani, Vice President for Europe and Central Asia. A key item on the agenda will be the planned construction of the Kambarata-1 Hydropower Plant (HPP) on the Naryn River. The Kyrgyz government hopes to secure an interest-free loan of $500 million from the World Bank to support the project, which is estimated to cost $3.6 billion in total. Kambarata-1 is seen as a strategic initiative that could make Kyrgyzstan fully self-sufficient in electricity generation. To date, approximately 4 billion Kyrgyz soms (about $46 million) have been allocated from the state budget for preliminary construction works. These funds are being used to build vital infrastructure including roads, a transportation tunnel, a bridge over the Naryn River, power lines, and temporary housing for workers. In addition to his meetings with international financial institutions, Kasymaliev will also engage with executives from leading U.S. corporations. These discussions will not only cover the hydropower sector but will also highlight other government-led investment opportunities in Kyrgyzstan across various industries. The Kyrgyz leadership has intensified efforts to attract foreign partners for its infrastructure and energy projects, as part of a broader strategy to enhance economic independence and modernize the national energy grid.