Bilateral Trade - The Times Of Central Asia

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Bilateral Trade

Despite Growth Plans, Trade Between Kazakhstan and Russia Declined in 2025

Trade and economic ties between Kazakhstan and Russia showed signs of slowing in 2025. By the end of the year, bilateral trade totaled $27.4 billion, a slight decrease compared with the previous year. The figures were announced by Kazakhstan’s Minister of Trade and Integration, Arman Shakkaliev, following talks in Astana between Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov and Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin. A year earlier, bilateral trade had demonstrated growth. In 2024, trade turnover increased by 3% to reach $27.8 billion, largely driven by rising imports of Russian goods into Kazakhstan. At the same time, exports of Kazakhstani products to Russia declined, pointing to a persistent imbalance in the structure of trade. The contraction recorded in 2025 reflects a broader trend, a slowdown in growth while overall trade volumes remain relatively high. Despite the decline, both sides continue to set ambitious targets for expanding economic cooperation. “At the same time, the goal has been set to bring bilateral trade to $30 billion. During the meeting of the heads of government, measures and priority sectors that could generate additional trade growth were discussed. These include energy, commerce, transport and logistics. We also reviewed issues related to the negotiation process and our integration agenda,” Shakkaliev said. Kazakh authorities expect digitalisation measures to help accelerate trade flows. Kazakhstan’s Deputy Minister of Finance, Yerzhan Birzhanov, outlined plans to introduce electronic waybills and modernize 30 checkpoints along the Kazakhstan–Russia border. These steps are expected to reduce transit times and improve operational transparency. Russia remains one of the largest investors in Kazakhstan’s economy. “There is a very significant presence of Russian business in Kazakhstan, and we welcome it. We are ready to explore new areas of cooperation. I am confident that there are ample opportunities for this. The Government of Kazakhstan will make every effort to intensify and enhance our cooperation,” Bektenov said. In turn, Mishustin highlighted prospects for further joint initiatives. “There is considerable potential in bilateral cooperation to launch joint projects in energy, industry, transport infrastructure, agriculture and the digital economy,” he stated. In addition to economic issues, the two sides discussed joint efforts to preserve the ecosystem of the Caspian Sea and implement environmental initiatives. External factors are also influencing trade dynamics. In particular, tighter foreign trade procedures introduced by Russia could reshape logistics routes and alter commodity flows across Central Asia.

Bilateral Trade

Kazakhstan’s Trade with China Is Growing, but the Deficit Is Widening

Kazakhstan’s trade and economic ties with China continue to deepen, yet the expansion in bilateral trade is accompanied by a widening imbalance. By the end of 2025, China had consolidated its position as one of the country’s key trading partners, accounting for nearly a quarter of total foreign trade turnover. According to data from the analytical centre of the Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan (AFK), bilateral trade reached $34.1 billion, an increase of 13.2% compared with the previous year. China’s share in Kazakhstan’s foreign trade rose to 23.7% from 21.2% a year earlier. Growth in trade was driven primarily by an increase in imports of Chinese goods. In 2025, imports from China reached $18.9 billion, 23.6% higher than the previous year. China accounted for 29.2% of all imports into the country. The structure of imports indicates growth in shipments of both consumer goods and industrial products. The largest increases were recorded in vehicles (+$3.4 billion), metals (+$645 million), and chemical products (+$412 million). According to analysts, this reflects expanding investment activity, infrastructure projects, and domestic demand. In contrast to imports, Kazakhstan’s exports to China showed only moderate growth, rising by 2.1% to $15.2 billion. At the same time, the export structure changed. Shipments of agricultural and chemical products increased, while exports of traditional raw materials declined. Experts attribute this to cooling industrial demand in China, lower global commodity prices, and growth in domestic production within China itself. Faster growth in imports led to a sharp deterioration in the trade balance. According to AFK data, the bilateral trade deficit with China increased tenfold, from $370 million to $3.7 billion. At the same time, price trends for goods imported from China remained largely downward. Declining prices for a number of items are linked to low inflation in China and increased competition from Chinese manufacturers in foreign markets. This, in turn, is exerting a restraining effect on inflation in Kazakhstan, partially offsetting price increases driven by domestic factors such as tariffs, demand, and budget spending. In the short term, analysts expect imports from China to remain the main driver of bilateral trade. Kazakhstan’s exports, meanwhile, will depend on commodity prices and the level of industrial demand in China. High oil prices (above $100 per barrel) could temporarily reduce the deficit by boosting export revenues. However, this effect would be largely price-driven and is unlikely to change the overall structure of trade.

Bilateral Trade

Belarus Aims to Increase Trade with Uzbekistan to $2 Billion by 2030

Belarus plans to increase its trade turnover with Uzbekistan to $2 billion by 2030, according to a statement issued by the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Belarus following high-level talks between the two countries’ prime ministers. Belarusian Prime Minister Aleksandr Turchin announced the target during a meeting with Uzbekistan’s Prime Minister Abdulla Aripov on February 24, underscoring the growing importance of bilateral cooperation. “Undoubtedly, Uzbekistan is one of our key partners in Central Asia and beyond,” Turchin said, adding that relations are supported by what he described as a trusting dialogue between the two presidents. He noted that both governments are focused not only on implementing previously reached agreements but also on developing new initiatives ahead of a planned high-level meeting later this year. According to the Belarusian government, a bilateral cooperation roadmap is being prepared in advance of President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s upcoming visit to Belarus. Turchin described the $2 billion trade target as ambitious but achievable, pointing out that current trade turnover is already approaching $1 billion. “We are committed to fruitful work and open dialogue. A number of large-scale projects are already being implemented,” he said. Economic cooperation between the two countries has expanded into several strategic sectors. Last year, Uzbekistan and Belarus moved to strengthen collaboration in nuclear energy following talks in Minsk hosted by Belarusian Energy Minister Denis Moroz and attended by a delegation from Uzbekistan’s Uzatom Atomic Energy Agency led by Director Azim Akhmedkhadjaev. Discussions focused on nuclear infrastructure development, specialist training, and radioactive waste management.

Bilateral Trade

Uzbekistan and Afghanistan Aim to Boost Trade to $5 Billion

Uzbekistan and Afghanistan plan to accelerate the introduction of a preferential trade regime and significantly expand bilateral trade, Deputy Prime Minister Jamshid Khodjaev said. In a post on his LinkedIn page, Khodjaev wrote that on February 24 he held a video conference with Afghanistan’s Minister of Industry and Trade, Nuriddin Azizi. “We discussed practical steps to expand trade and economic cooperation and preparations for an upcoming visit of the Afghan delegation to Uzbekistan,” he said. Khodjaev noted that Uzbekistan values its “friendly and constructive relations” with Afghanistan. According to him, over the past five years bilateral trade has grown 2.5 times, from $653 million in 2021 to $1.7 billion in 2025. “Our shared goal is to increase this figure to $5 billion,” he wrote. The discussions also addressed the development of interregional ties and the infrastructure needed to promote goods, including showrooms and warehouse facilities. The two sides considered industrial cooperation in agricultural processing, construction materials, and textiles, as well as joint initiatives in food security. “We agreed to accelerate the entry into force of the Preferential Trade Agreement and to advance projects in investment and industrial cooperation,” Khodjaev stated. He added that, after Ramadan, work would continue in a practical format, including a business forum in Kabul and the preparation of a roadmap outlining priority areas. Earlier data indicate that in 2024 bilateral trade reached approximately $1.1 billion, with more than $1 billion accounting for Uzbek exports to Afghanistan.

TCA Interviews

Ukrainian Ambassador to Kazakhstan: “The War Will End This Year. I Truly Believe In That.”

As the war between Russia and Ukraine approaches its fifth year, diplomatic efforts to reshape trade routes, energy flows, and regional partnerships are intensifying far beyond the battlefield. For Ukraine, Central Asia has emerged as an increasingly important economic and logistical partner, particularly as Kyiv seeks alternatives to disrupted transport corridors and supply chains. The Times of Central Asia spoke with Viсtor Mayko, Ukraine’s Ambassador to Kazakhstan, about the prospects for deeper economic cooperation with Central Asia, the role of the Middle Corridor, energy transit challenges in the Caspian region, Kyiv’s expectations for international support, and a possible path toward ending the war. Trade and Economic Prospects in Central Asia TCA: Mr. Ambassador, what are the prospects for deepening trade and economic partnerships between Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and wider Central Asia? Which sectors offer the greatest potential for cooperation? Ambassador Mayko: Deepening trade and economic ties between Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and other Central Asian countries is not merely a prospect; it is a necessity dictated by global economic trends. Kazakhstan leads the region economically, with a GDP exceeding $300 billion. It is on a trajectory to join the G20 within 5 to 10 years. The United States, recognizing this potential, has invited Kazakhstan to the upcoming G20 meeting in the U.S., demonstrating Kazakhstan’s rising global significance. Ukraine and Kazakhstan’s economies are complementary. Ukraine brings experience in agricultural technology, mechanical engineering, IT, and processing, while Kazakhstan contributes resource strength, industrial capacity, and logistics. Promising areas for cooperation include agro-industrial development, from crop production to digitalized processing; industrial cooperation through equipment supply and joint production; logistics and infrastructure aimed at strengthening transport corridors; and energy and IT projects focused on efficiency and network modernization. We are already transitioning from theory to action. A major business delegation from Ukraine will visit Kazakhstan this year. We also anticipate another meeting of the Joint Ukrainian-Kazakh Intergovernmental Commission on Economic Cooperation, which is crucial for removing barriers and initiating new projects. Ukraine’s presence in Kazakhstan’s economy has historically been significant. If not for the war and resulting transport disruptions, I believe our mutual trade could have reached $10 billion. Ukrainian machinery still accounts for a substantial portion of Kazakhstan’s industrial base, especially in regions such as Karaganda, Aktau, and Pavlodar, though much of this equipment now requires modernization. Another promising area is mineral resource development. Ukraine has the scientific and practical base to contribute meaningfully to this sector. Turkmenistan’s earlier collaboration with Ukrainian firms in revitalizing depleted wells illustrates our potential. Wells deemed exhausted by older technologies yielded hundreds of thousands of tons of oil under Ukrainian management. This successful model can be applied in Kazakhstan, one of the EU’s top three oil suppliers. Transport Infrastructure and the Middle Corridor TCA: How is cooperation in the transport sector developing, especially regarding the Middle Corridor? Are there any potential plans for joint infrastructure projects? Ambassador Mayko: Russia’s full-scale aggression disrupted Ukraine’s previous logistics routes. Today, we prioritize alternatives like the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, the “Middle Corridor”, as a...

Mirziyoyev in Turkey

Uzbekistan and Turkey Set $5 Billion Trade Target at Strategic Council Meeting in Ankara

At the invitation of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev paid an official visit to Turkey on January 29, marking a new phase in the deepening partnership between the two nations. The visit was centered around the fourth meeting of the High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council, co-chaired by the two leaders in Ankara. Discussions focused on strengthening the comprehensive strategic partnership between Uzbekistan and Turkey, with an emphasis on political dialogue, trade and economic cooperation, transport connectivity, and cultural and humanitarian exchanges. The two presidents also exchanged views on regional and global developments, underscoring the growing coordination between Tashkent and Ankara on international platforms. Both sides highlighted the steady growth in bilateral trade, the rising number of joint ventures, and increased direct flights between the two countries. Regular cultural exchanges and growing people-to-people contacts were cited as further evidence of the strengthening relationship. Key areas for future cooperation include joint projects in industry, agriculture, and social protection, as well as enhanced collaboration in defense, security, and combating cybercrime. The timing of the Strategic Council meeting was described as symbolic, taking place on the eve of Ramadan and ahead of the 30th anniversary of the Treaty on Eternal Friendship and Cooperation between Uzbekistan and Turkey. The two sides expressed satisfaction with the growing political dialogue and the convergence of their positions on many international issues. The presidents reaffirmed their commitment to mutual support in international and regional organizations, including the United Nations, the Organization of Turkic States, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, and the Economic Cooperation Organization. Inter-parliamentary cooperation has also intensified, particularly through parliamentary friendship groups. The leaders set an ambitious goal to increase bilateral trade turnover to $5 billion in the coming years. Expanding the list of goods covered under the Preferential Trade Agreement will be a key step toward achieving that target. Ahead of the visit, new priority areas for industrial cooperation were identified and will be implemented under a separate program. Significant potential was noted for interregional cooperation, with delegations from all regions of Uzbekistan expected to visit Türkiye by the end of the year to develop joint projects. Cooperation will also be deepened in agriculture, horticulture, healthcare, and medical tourism. The two countries agreed to intensify cultural and tourism ties through joint initiatives such as theater festivals, cultural weeks, historical film productions, and heritage restoration projects. In the education sector, the fourth Rectors’ Forum will be held in Bukhara this spring. Following the Strategic Council meeting, Mirziyoyev and Erdoğan signed a Joint Statement and adopted a framework for cooperation within the comprehensive strategic partnership. A wide-ranging package of bilateral agreements was also signed, covering healthcare, education, military medicine, economic and financial cooperation, mining, transport corridors, special economic zones, nuclear safety, migration, religious affairs, foreign ministry cooperation for 2026-2027, light industry, and cultural collaboration. At the conclusion of the visit, Mirziyoyev extended an official invitation to Erdoğan to visit Uzbekistan, reflecting the continued momentum and growing trust in bilateral relations.