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Household Debt

Household Debt Persists Despite Lending Slowdown in Kazakhstan

At the start of 2026, Kazakhstan’s financial indicators appear promising: the population is borrowing less, and banks are increasing financing to businesses. Yet behind this macroeconomic optimism lies a more complex picture. The debt burden on citizens has not disappeared; it has simply changed form. While less visible in financial reports, household debt is becoming increasingly evident in everyday family budgets. Two Realities, One Economy Madina Abylkasymova, chair of the Agency for Regulation and Development of the Financial Market, reported to President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev that consumer lending has slowed, while business lending has begun to grow steadily for the first time in three years. Data from the National Bank confirm this trend. In 2024, lending to individuals increased by 23.5%. By the end of 2025, growth had slowed to 17.7%. Business lending, meanwhile, accelerated from 17.9% to 19%. From a macroeconomic perspective, the regulator has met its interim objective: banks are channeling more resources into the productive economy. However, an analysis of second-tier banks’ portfolios suggests that a fundamental imbalance persists. Excluding development institutions and the quasi-public sector, end-of-year data show household debt to commercial banks at $55.1 billion, compared with business debt of 15.4 trillion tenge, or approximately $34.2 billion. The resulting $22.2 billion gap points to a structural issue: individuals remain the primary source of income for major private banks, including Halyk Bank, Kaspi Bank, and Bank CenterCredit (BCC), while the real sector continues to be underfinanced by market-based institutions. Shift to Installment Plans In 2025, under pressure from regulators, banks tightened lending standards for consumer loans. Traditional cash loan issuance slowed significantly. Despite this, total household debt continued to grow. According to the National Bank, the consumer loan portfolio expanded by KZT 2 trillion in the first half of 2025, reaching $55.1 billion by year’s end. This growth was driven not by large loans but by installment plans and Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) services. The number of loan contracts is rising much faster than the number of borrowers, a classic sign of demand fragmentation. Instead of a single large loan, citizens are taking out multiple small loans for food, clothing, and everyday necessities. This reflects declining purchasing power. Inflation reached 12.3% by the end of the year, with food prices rising 13.5%. At the same time, official data shows real incomes fell by 2%. Installment plans, once used primarily to purchase durable goods, are increasingly being used to “make ends meet.” Statistically, this appears as a reduction in average loan size and risk exposure. In reality, it points to growing debt dependency among households. Why the Bankruptcy Law Has Fallen Short The 2023 law on restoring personal solvency and bankruptcy was designed to address over-indebtedness structurally. But by early 2026, it was clear the system was functioning unevenly. Data from 2025 reveals the scale of rejections. Of more than 270,000 submitted applications, only about 34,000, just 12%, were approved. Approximately 87% of applicants received official denials. The main reason lies in strict eligibility criteria. For out-of-court...

Banking

Kazakhstan’s Banking System and the Logic of Early Enforcement

Kazakhstan’s growth model depends on uninterrupted access to international finance. Because its largest energy and mining projects rely on foreign capital, hard-currency financing, and offshore banking channels, confidence in the integrity of its banking system is not just a regulatory issue; it is a macroeconomic constraint. This reliance is structural. Export revenues are concentrated in globally-priced commodities—especially oil (up to 60% of total exports in recent years), and uranium (40%+ of global output)—linking fiscal stability directly to hard-currency liquidity and correspondent banking access. In that context, correspondent banking is a systemic requirement underpinning international payments and trade. Because international banks incorporate sanctions exposure and AML/CFT risk into their assessments, adverse risk perceptions can trigger de-risking behavior that raises costs and slows flows. Astana is now courting U.S. and European investment in multibillion-dollar initiatives, including the Trans-Caspian/Middle Corridor and projects related to rare earth and critical minerals supply chains. This further increases Kazakhstan’s exposure to Western compliance standards and regulatory scrutiny. With a growth model heavily driven by foreign capital, Kazakhstan understands that perceived weaknesses in banking system compliance would not halt investment outright, but would translate into higher funding costs and reduced appetite in international capital markets. Sanctions Exposure After 2022: Structural, Not Tactical Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 sharply increased Kazakhstan’s exposure to global sanctions enforcement. Geography, membership in the Eurasian Economic Union, and dense trade and infrastructure ties with Russia made Kazakhstan a focal point for concerns over re-exports and sanctions leakage. At the same time, its border with China—an important source of dual-use goods—has added another layer of scrutiny, even as reporting later showed that China-origin cargo bound for Russia was, in documented cases, routed without physically entering Kazakhstan, despite being linked to it in trade flows. Western sanctions reshaped logistics faster than enforcement capacity could adapt. Restrictions on shipping, insurance, and financial services increased reliance on overland transit routes through Central Asia, drawing attention to Kazakhstan, even where violations were difficult to substantiate. Western investigations later showed that EU-origin dual-use goods continued to reach Russia through intermediary channels, underscoring enforcement gaps beyond Kazakhstan itself. For Kazakhstan, however, heightened scrutiny translated directly into financial risk, regardless of intent. In the logic of global compliance, perception can be as consequential as proof. Early Intervention as Risk Management Since 2022, Kazakhstan’s response has evolved from declaratory neutrality to early, containment-oriented enforcement. This shift has been driven less by foreign-policy alignment than by a calculation that even isolated violations can carry disproportionate financial consequences. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has repeatedly emphasized that sanctions violations carry direct economic consequences for Kazakhstan, warning in public remarks that non-compliance could expose the country to secondary sanctions affecting trade, finance, and investment flows. By framing compliance as a matter of macroeconomic risk management rather than geopolitical positioning, the government signaled that enforcement would prioritize financial stability over short-term commercial convenience. That logic has translated into practice. When Western sanctions were imposed on Sberbank in 2022, Kazakhstan approved the sale and restructuring of...

Tax Administration

Kyrgyzstan Launches Unified Digital Tax Platform

Almambet Shykmamatov, chairman of Kyrgyzstan’s State Tax Service (STS), has unveiled a new digital platform that consolidates all tax-related data into a single system. The automated tax analysis platform, Salyq Kuzot, enables online tracking of the tax status of every citizen and company operating in the country. According to Shykmamatov, tax officials previously had to manually collect data on tax payments, insurance contributions, and financial statements from multiple sources and agencies. With the launch of Salyq Kuzot, this information is now integrated into a unified system, significantly improving efficiency. During a demonstration of the system, the STS head showcased its functionality, including detailed reports on state budget revenues broken down by region, district, and city. The platform also allows for real-time identification of companies evading tax obligations. The launch of Salyq Kuzot comes amid a broader national effort to reduce bureaucracy across public administration. Since early last year, the National Institute for Strategic Studies of the Kyrgyz Republic (NISI) has led reforms aimed at streamlining citizens’ interactions with state institutions and improving the efficiency of government operations. As part of these reforms, redundant government bodies are being phased out. The National Statistical Committee of Kyrgyzstan, for example, has closed several regional offices, resulting in the layoff of approximately 100 employees. One of the most significant policy changes is a new regulation prohibiting ministries and agencies from requesting information directly from citizens if the data can be obtained through interagency cooperation. The measure is intended to speed up administrative processes and reduce the bureaucratic burden on the public.

Energy Infrastructure

Why Workers Are Leaving the Çalık Enerji Power Plant Construction Site in Turkmenistan

One of Turkmenistan’s largest combined-cycle power plants is currently under construction on the Caspian coast. Despite offering record-high wages by local standards, the site is experiencing persistent staff turnover. The project is being led by the Turkish company Çalık Enerji, which is building a 1,574 MW combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) power plant in the village of Kiyanly in Turkmenistan’s Balkan region. While the workforce is largely made up of local residents, retaining staff has proven difficult. According to former workers, even unskilled laborers can earn up to $2,856 per month, an exceptionally high salary for the region. This has attracted a steady stream of job seekers. However, many employees say the pay does not adequately compensate for the harsh realities of working on-site. The primary reason cited for resignations is the extreme natural environment. The construction site lies between the Caspian Sea and an open expanse of steppe, where strong winds are a near-constant presence. Conditions worsen in winter, when workers endure eight-hour shifts outdoors in cold and windy weather, conditions that many find intolerable beyond a few months. In addition to environmental challenges, workers point to strained relations with site management and internal conflicts among staff. They describe a lack of mutual trust between workers and middle managers, as well as growing tensions within crews. Some have also reported interethnic clashes, particularly between Turkmen and Azerbaijani workers, despite both groups being Turkmenistani citizens residing in the same region. These disputes have occasionally escalated into physical altercations, further contributing to resignations. Çalık Enerji signed a contract with the state-owned utility Turkmenenergo to carry out the Kiyanly project. The power plant will feature two units equipped with 9F.04 gas turbines, each with a capacity of 288 MW, and a D12 steam turbine produced by GE Vernova.

Tax Reform

Tax Reform in Kazakhstan Could Lead to Drug Shortages

Kazakhstan’s new tax policy has triggered concerns over potential disruptions in the supply of medicines and medical devices. Industry leaders warn that complexities in administering value-added tax (VAT), along with legal inconsistencies in the updated Tax Code, could destabilize the country's pharmaceutical market. Ruslan Sultanov, chairman of Kazakhstan’s Association of Pharmaceutical and Medical Product Manufacturers, raised concerns during an online meeting with government and business representatives. He said the changes have already led distributors to refuse purchases of several essential medicines. Last year, Kazakhstan adopted a new Tax Code that increased the VAT rate from 12% to 16%. It also introduced zero and reduced VAT rates for specific sectors. During parliamentary discussions, lawmakers proposed exempting essential medicines from VAT and reducing the tax burden on medical institutions. Ultimately, authorities agreed to fully exempt more than 3,000 medicines purchased under the Guaranteed Volume of Free Medical Care (GVFMC) and Compulsory Social Health Insurance (CSHI) programs from VAT. However, Sultanov said these exemptions have not been sufficient to stabilize the market. According to him, the pharmaceutical sector is facing unprecedented administrative pressure. One of the most critical problems is the inconsistent taxation of medical devices procured under the GVFMC and CSHI frameworks. While medical services are completely exempt from VAT, a 5% VAT rate is still applied to medical devices. “As a result, hospitals are in a situation where they cannot offset the tax when purchasing medical equipment. After factoring in administrative costs, companies are losing 5-7%. This affects both domestic and foreign manufacturers,” Sultanov explained. The lack of clear guidance from government agencies has further complicated matters. Socially significant medicines, which were previously taxed at 5%, are now VAT-exempt but ambiguity around the new rules has led to widespread reluctance among distributors to place orders. “The confusion has created a bottleneck. For example, paracetamol is physically available in warehouses, but its movement is being blocked. Without timely clarification, we will face a shortage,” Sultanov warned. To resolve the issue, he proposed eliminating the fragmented VAT structure currently applied to the pharmaceutical sector. Sultanov also highlighted the risks associated with the under-declaration of customs values for imported drugs. He stated that customs officials continue to rely on outdated price data from a year ago, ignoring current market rates. This, combined with delays in approving maximum retail prices by the Ministry of Health, threatens the viability of long-term drug supply contracts signed before January 2026, particularly those involving medicines not produced domestically. His concerns are echoed by pharmacy industry leaders. Talgat Omarov, Chairman of the Kazakhstan Association of Independent Pharmacies, confirmed that the organization has submitted formal appeals to President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Senate leadership, calling for the complete exemption of the pharmaceutical sector from VAT, not just medications supplied under state programs. “Every day, customers come into pharmacies, see new price tags, complain, and leave. We hear this negativity constantly. Medicines are socially significant goods, and applying additional taxes in the current climate is dangerous,” Omarov said. To cope with increased taxes...

Tourism

Kazakhstan Expects to Double Influx of Foreign Gambling Tourists

Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Tourism and Sports expects the number of foreign gambling tourists to double following the planned opening of new casinos in four regions of the country. Gambling tourists are foreign nationals who travel specifically to visit casinos and other gambling establishments. Currently, gambling is legally permitted only in two designated zones: the city of Konaev in the Almaty region and the Shchuchinsk-Burabay resort area in the Akmola Region. These facilities are open to both Kazakh and foreign citizens. The government is considering a significant expansion of the gambling sector’s footprint. Plans are underway to open new casinos that will be accessible exclusively to foreign tourists. Deputy Minister of Tourism and Sports Baurzhan Rapikov said the proposed locations for the new facilities include the East Kazakhstan, Almaty, Mangistau, and Zhetysu regions. He added that the expected economic impact includes about 500 jobs per casino, annual tax revenues of $4 million to $8 million, and an increase in gambling tourists from 100,000 to 200,000 per year. In parallel, Kazakhstan is prioritizing the digitalization of its tourism sector. Beginning in February, the ministry will launch the development of a unified digital tourism ecosystem based on the Kazakhstan.Travel platform. The upgraded system will feature an intelligent, AI-powered route planner, online booking tools, and optimal travel date suggestions. A new feature, KazTuristBot, will provide personalized recommendations and 24/7 support for travelers. For businesses, the platform will offer a showcase of tourism products, demand analytics, and digital tools for accessing government support. Authorities will also gain access to real-time data on tourist flows, enabling targeted infrastructure development in high-demand regions. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kazakhstan emerged in 2025 as one of the fastest-growing destinations in Central Asia for South Korean tourists. Data from the Agoda platform showed a 295% increase in travel interest between January and October.