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Climate Change Adaptation Strategy

Kyrgyzstan Climate Resilience the Target of New Forest Restoration Project

In spring 2026, more than 400,000 forest and fruit tree seedlings were planted over roughly 500 hectares of land across Kyrgyzstan under a project overseen by the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). The project, Carbon Sequestration through Climate Investments in Forests and Pastures in the Kyrgyz Republic, began in 2023. Financed by the Green Climate Fund, it aims to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, while supporting climate change mitigation and adaptation. According to FAO in Kyrgyzstan, the community-based planting activities included a wide variety of trees – Tian Shan spruce, juniper, walnut, almond, poplar, apple, apricot and plum. The species were selected because they are well adapted to Kyrgyzstan’s climatic conditions and have high resilience and carbon-sequestration potential. The project gives special attention to strengthening the capacity of local communities. It provides seedlings, fencing materials and, where required, drip irrigation systems, while local communities contribute labor and participate in establishing planting sites. Planting on municipal land is organized by local self-government bodies, while work inside the State Forest Fund is carried out by local forestry units. The four districts selected for the project – Ak-Talaa, Suzak, Toguz-Toro and Uzgen – were chosen because of their high vulnerability to the impacts of climate change in Kyrgyzstan’s Naryn, Jalal-Abad and Osh regions. According to climate observations covering the past 27 years, the average annual temperature in these areas has increased by 1.5°C. Several districts have experienced declining precipitation levels, alongside an increasing frequency of climate-related disasters, including landslides and mudflows. The project is part of a wider effort to help rural communities adapt to climate pressure in Kyrgyzstan. In 2025, TCA reported on the use of artificial glaciers to support farmers in water-scarce areas, where controlled winter ice accumulation can provide additional irrigation water during the growing season. Nor is this Kyrgyzstan’s only collaboration with the FAO on climate and land management. In April 2025, the FAO and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development launched a separate initiative, Greening Kyrgyzstan’s Economy: Know More, Act Better, Enhance Results, which uses geographic information system technology to improve farmland monitoring, support climate-smart agriculture and strengthen food security. Climate concerns have also become increasingly visible around Lake Issyk-Kul, one of Kyrgyzstan’s most important natural landmarks. TCA has reported that melting glaciers, changing precipitation patterns and more frequent extreme weather pose long-term risks the Issyk-Kul basin, with possible consequences for water resources, agriculture, tourism and energy security. Although the latest planting figures concern forests and orchards, the wider project also covers pasture management, a central issue in rural Kyrgyzstan, where overgrazing and land degradation have put pressure on mountain ecosystems. Planned measures include rehabilitating access roads and bridges to remote pastures, building livestock watering points, establishing shelterbelts, developing pasture grass seed nurseries, and introducing rotational grazing practices. The project is expected to sequester more than 19.8 million tons of CO₂ equivalent over a 20-year period. This represents 7.6% of the country’s total greenhouse gas emissions and 22.6% of emissions from the agricultural sector. Under the...

CA5+UK

Opinion: UK’s C6 Engagement and the Opportunity for British Geostrategic Renewal

Along with Nicholas Spykman, Sir Halford Mackinder is one of the most pre-eminent thinkers in the field of geopolitics. Whilst today geopolitics is a term used interchangeably with “world affairs,” “international relations,” and “foreign policy,” Spykman and Mackinder used the phrase to describe the narrow academic study of how geography influences international relations and the conduct of states. In the 1904 paper, The Geographical Pivot of History, Mackinder theorized that the key to controlling the balance of power in the world rested in a “heartland” of Eurasia, comprising Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Mackinder described the heartland region as the “pivot region” for regional and global hegemony. The word “pivot” has recently been popularized in international relations, with examples including President Obama’s pivot to the Pacific and Britain’s Indo-Pacific pivot in the 2021 Integrated Review. In 1997, former U.S. National Security Adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski built on Mackinder’s ideas in his work, The Grand Chessboard. Brzezinski defined a geopolitical pivot as being “determined by their geography, which in some cases gives them a special role either in defining access to important areas or in denying resources to a significant player. In some cases, a geopolitical pivot may act as a defensive shield for a vital state or even a region.” To Mackinder and Brzezinski, Central Asia was a crucial geostrategic pivot. Central Asia - comprising the five states of Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan, collectively termed the C5 - is located between China, Russia, Iran, and Afghanistan. Thus, the near abroad of the region is defined by conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Iran and Israel/U.S., and between Taliban-run Afghanistan and Pakistan. Pragmatic engagement is a necessity for the C5 but has not stopped them from pursuing greater diversification in security and economic arrangements, and they remain committed to U.S.-led diplomatic initiatives. Faced with a regionally assertive superpower in China, risks created by Russia’s war in Ukraine, theocratic Iran, and the Taliban in Afghanistan, Central Asia has continued to show its desire to build and deepen its economic and security partnerships from beyond traditional powers – such as China and Russia – to states in the Gulf, the Caucasus, Western Europe, and elsewhere. The United Kingdom has emerged as a new and important partner. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has raised concerns in the Central Asian states about its regional revisionism, territorial ambitions, and Putin’s reconstruction of the Soviet Union. In 2014, Putin credited Nursultan Nazarbayev with having “created a state in a territory that had never had a state before,” adding that “the Kazakhs never had any statehood.” The remarks sparked anger in Kazakhstan and fed concern about Moscow’s view of post-Soviet sovereignty. Finally, Putin said that it would be best for Kazakhstan to “remain in the greater Russian world.” In The Grand Chessboard, Brzezinski predicted that “Russia without Ukraine can still strive for imperial status, but it would then become a predominantly Asian imperial state, more likely to be drawn into debilitating conflicts with aroused Central Asians.” Central Asia has been a...

Oil Prices

Opinion: Kazakhstan, Oil, the Iran War and Dutch Disease

In 1977, The Economist coined a new term for the (potential) negative consequences of a short-term boom in natural resources: “Dutch disease.” The phenomenon got its name from an analysis of the decline of the manufacturing sector in the Netherlands following the 1960s natural gas discoveries at Groningen, in the northeastern Netherlands. The theory was that a surge in the price of a natural resource like oil or gas would likely cause currency appreciation, making imports cheaper and other sectors, like manufacturing, less competitive. Whether the recent spike in oil prices will contribute to Dutch disease in oil-rich Kazakhstan will likely depend on the length of the Iran war’s effect on oil prices (which could last well beyond the end of the conflict itself) and the government’s stewardship of Kazakhstan’s economy. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev deserves credit for the government’s efforts to diversify the national economy. Investing in the nation’s manufacturing base, especially SMEs, educating the Kazakh workforce, and improving healthcare are all helping broaden the Kazakh economy and reduce the country’s dependence on oil. But oil is the main driver of Kazakhstan’s wealth, and while other sectors are increasing their share of Kazakhstan’s economy, oil and the wider extractive sector remain central to public finances, accounting for over 40% of government revenues. So, let’s do a deep dive on Kazakhstan’s oil. Most of Kazakhstan’s oil comes from the west of the country, including the Tengiz field near the Caspian Sea and the offshore Kashagan field in the northern Caspian. The Tengiz oil field is one of the deepest and largest oil fields in the world, while Kashagan, an offshore deposit, ranks as one of the largest global oil discoveries since the 1960s. Kazakhstan’s main export blend, CPC Blend, is a light, sweet crude, a desirable oil type that’s easy to refine into gasoline and diesel. Because the Iran war and restrictions around the Strait of Hormuz have disrupted tanker traffic and raised fears of supply shortages, global oil prices have climbed. And while high oil prices are generally a net positive for Kazakhstan, the current price - Brent crude was trading above $100 per barrel in mid-May 2026 - could present problems. In the short term, high oil prices tend to boost government revenues and budget surpluses. They can increase inflows to Kazakhstan’s National Fund, depending on production, tax receipts, transfers, and government withdrawal policy, and provide resources for government spending on infrastructure and social programs. They can also stimulate demand in related sectors, boosting Kazakhstan’s oil-related industries. And since oil exports typically make up more than half of the nation’s export revenues, high oil prices generally lead to a rise in Kazakhstan’s GDP. So far, so good. But high oil prices also carry risks. For one thing, they can strengthen the tenge and add to domestic demand, especially if higher revenues feed into faster government spending. Which is where Dutch disease comes in. As the stronger currency makes non-oil exports less competitive, capital and labor shift toward the energy...

Agriculture

Chinese Firm Eyes Virus-Free Potato Production in Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan is in discussions with China’s Inner Mongolia Muland Agricultural Technology Co., Ltd over the establishment of a high-tech facility to produce virus-free seed potatoes, according to the Ministry of Agriculture. The proposal was reviewed during a meeting between Agriculture Minister Aidarbek Saparov and the company’s CEO, Wei Jinglong. Virus-free seed potatoes are cultivated using in vitro techniques that eliminate pathogens and diseases, improving varietal purity and significantly boosting yields. Specialists estimate that such methods can increase output by 30-50% compared with conventional seed tubers. Saparov said potato farming remains a strategically important sector of Kazakhstan’s agricultural industry. In 2025, potatoes were planted on 131,000 hectares, with total production reaching 2.8 million tons. “Developing a technologically advanced domestic seed production system is a key priority for the sector. It is about building a sustainable foundation for food security,” Saparov said. He added that expanding biotechnology and scaling up the production of virus-free planting material would help reduce dependence on imports and enhance the competitiveness of Kazakhstan’s domestic breeding programs. At present, 22 specialized farms in Kazakhstan produce original and elite seed potatoes. Biotechnological laboratories, including the Kazakh Research Institute of Fruit and Vegetable Growing, play a crucial role. The Chinese company has expressed interest in building a laboratory and greenhouse complex using advanced technologies to produce micro- and mini-tubers, drawing on its experience implementing similar projects. “The project envisions launching industrial-scale production of high-quality seed material and developing export potential targeting Central Asian markets,” the ministry said. Company representatives indicated they plan to begin implementation in the near term, with the first batch of seed material expected within a year. The Times of Central Asia previously reported that another Chinese firm, Snow Valley Agricultural Group Co. Ltd, is planning to build a deep-processing potato facility in Kazakhstan’s Pavlodar region.

Antalya Diplomacy Forum

Central Asia Came to Antalya With a Clearer Voice and a Wider Agenda

The Antalya Diplomacy Forum, from April 17 to 19, brought together heads of state, foreign ministers, and senior officials at a tense moment in international politics. The official theme, “Mapping Tomorrow, Managing Uncertainties,” reflected the backdrop: war in the Middle East, pressure on trade, and growing doubts about the strength of international institutions. Central Asia did not dominate the gathering, but the region was visible across the program and in the meetings around it. Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev was the highest-profile regional figure in attendance, while Kyrgyzstan sent Foreign Minister Jeenbek Kulubaev, Turkmenistan sent Foreign Minister Rashid Meredov, and Tajikistan sent Deputy Foreign Minister Farrukh Sharifzoda. Uzbekistan was also active through Foreign Minister Bakhtiyor Saidov in meetings held during the forum dates. The strongest Central Asian intervention came from Tokayev. Speaking at a panel session, he said the United Nations remains indispensable, but also made clear that its present structure is failing to keep up with current crises. “We must honestly acknowledge that the Security Council is the central element in the reform of the United Nations,” he said. He also warned that many key negotiations now take place outside the UN system, in separate capitals and closed rooms, rather than through the institution that was built for that purpose. Tokayev framed the problem in practical terms rather than abstract ones. He said global leaders must approach peace and security “with a strong sense of responsibility,” adding that “we must act more responsibly and exercise restraint.” Tokayev also said Kazakhstan calls on all countries involved in the Iran conflict to cease hostilities while keeping the focus on the core issue of nuclear proliferation. His language matched the line Astana has tried to hold for years: avoid escalation, preserve room for dialogue, and keep diplomatic channels open. Tokayev went further when he turned to the role of what he called “middle powers,” naming Kazakhstan and Türkiye among the states that, in his view, show a high degree of responsibility in both diplomacy and practice. He said it would “not be an exaggeration to say that today middle powers often demonstrate a greater degree of responsibility than major powers represented in the Security Council, which, regrettably, often obstruct the resolution of key global issues.” That was one of the sharper lines delivered at the summit. It also showed how Kazakhstan now wants to place itself in the world: not as a passive actor caught between larger powers, but as a state that can help steady an increasingly unstable system. Türkiye was central to that framing. At the start of his remarks, Tokayev praised President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s role in the region and said Kazakhstan was looking forward to Erdoğan’s state visit next month. That also reflects a broader trend of closer coordination between Kazakhstan and Türkiye, including in the Trans-Caspian transport route (Middle Corridor) and shifting Caspian dynamics. Uzbekistan approached the summit in Antalya differently. Tashkent did not have a presidential intervention on the main stage, but it used the gathering for...

Kazakhstan-U.S. Relations

No Longer a Startup Market: Kazakhstan Makes Its Case to U.S. Investors

Washington D.C. - Acting on President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s push to convert strategic alignment with Washington into tangible commercial gains, senior Kazakh officials told U.S. investors on April 14 that the bilateral relationship is entering a deeper phase focused on energy, critical minerals, and transport infrastructure. Within that context, the country has undertaken constitutional reforms and other modernization efforts to digitize and improve the investment climate. The Kazakhstan delegation was led by Erzhan Kazykhan, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s Special Representative for Negotiations with the United States on priority issues of bilateral cooperation, and included National Bank Governor Timur Suleimenov and Deputy Foreign Minister Alibek Kuantyrov, who traveled to Washington for the meetings. Kazakhstan’s Ambassador to the United States, Magzhan Ilyassov, also participated. A Delivering Partner, Not a Prospective One Kazykhan presented the new commercial push as a direct outgrowth of Tokayev’s November 2025 Oval Office meeting with President Trump, casting the Kazakh leader as a partner in a more ambitious phase of U.S.-Kazakhstan relations aimed at converting political trust into practical cooperation on energy security, critical minerals, and strategic transport corridors. He placed that agenda within the framework of Kazakhstan’s participation in U.S.-backed regional diplomacy as well, pointing to Kazakhstan joining the Abraham Accords and President Trump’s broader peace initiatives. Kazykhan also highlighted Kazakhstan’s role as a founding member of the Board of Peace, noting that Tokayev signed its charter in Davos in January and participated in its inaugural meeting in Washington on February 19. Kazakhstan is positioning itself as a constructive U.S. partner not only in Eurasian connectivity and resource security, but also in Middle East stabilization through support for reconstruction, healthcare, education, and longer-term peace-building efforts. Kazakhstan is seeking to set itself apart as a partner that delivers. While many countries pitch cooperation with Washington in terms of future potential, Astana’s message is that engagement has already produced tangible commercial outcomes. Following the Oval Office meeting, 29 agreements had been signed, including with Cove Capital, Boeing, Cerberus Capital Management, and Wabtec, with a combined value of more than $17 billion. Kazykhan added that more than 600 American companies operate in Kazakhstan and that cumulative U.S. investment has exceeded $60 billion, making the United States the country’s largest foreign investor. [caption id="attachment_47222" align="aligncenter" width="1429"] Kazakhstan Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin; Special Representative for Negotiations with the United States, Erzhan Kazykhan; and Kazakhstan's Ambassador to the United States Magzhan Ilyassov meet with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on April 15 to strengthen commercial ties and advance regional cooperation. Image: USDOS[/caption] No Longer a Startup Market Ambassador Ilyassov said the discussion was more in-depth than a typical roundtable, because the relationship with U.S. partners has matured over many years. The tone of the session matched that description. The discussion centered on specifics of expansion, supply chains, regulation, and long-term capital rather than general market entry. [caption id="attachment_47219" align="aligncenter" width="2048"] Kazakhstan’s Ambassador to the United States, Magzhan Ilyassov; image: Kazakhstan Embassy, U.S.[/caption] Unlike the rest of Central Asia,...