Features - The Times Of Central Asia

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Afghanistan

Steel Diplomacy: Central Asia’s Southern Push via Afghanistan

The United States and its allies may be uneasy about the Taliban’s return to power, given their extremist history, continued repression, and the collapse of decades-long Western efforts in Afghanistan. Nevertheless, the Taliban is strengthening ties with the Global South—particularly Central Asia—in search of investment for railway infrastructure. For landlocked Central Asian nations, Afghanistan is a key transit point on the shortest route to the Arabian Sea, offering an alternative to routes through Russia, China, or westward via the Caspian. The war-torn country – located at the crossroads of Central and South Asia – serves as a land bridge between the former Soviet republics and the major markets of the region, including India and Pakistan. This strategic position is why regional actors are eager to invest in the construction of the railway network in Afghanistan, fully aware that the new route would help them achieve at least some of their geopolitical and geoeconomics interest. Kazakhstani Foreign Minister Murat Nurtleu’s recent visit to Kabul was, according to reports, primarily focused on Afghan railway infrastructure. The largest Central Asian nation economy is reportedly ready to invest $500 million in the construction of the 115km (71 miles) railway from Towrgondi on Afghanistan’s border with Turkmenistan to the city of Herat. As Taliban railway officials told The Times of Central Asia, the Afghan and Kazakh delegations, who signed a memorandum of understanding on the project, are expected to finalize new agreements and contracts in the coming months. A detailed construction study is expected to be completed by winter, and Afghan authorities anticipate that construction will begin by the end of the year. Meanwhile, Kabul hopes to reach similar deals with neighboring Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, as well as with Russia and Pakistan. According to Taliban railway experts, these four nations – along with Kazakhstan – are expected to play a major role in the development of the 700-kilometer (approximately 435-mile) railway network in Afghanistan. The Taliban political officials, on the other hand, see the project as an opportunity for Afghanistan to increase its geopolitical importance. “It will help us reduce economic dependence and isolation, allowing Afghanistan to integrate more actively into the regional economy,” Muhammad Rehman, the Taliban-appointed Chargé d’Affaires of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan to Kazakhstan, told The Times of Central Asia, From his perspective, nations investing in Afghan railway infrastructure will become advocates for Afghanistan’s stability. Projects like the construction of the railway, in his view, can transform Afghanistan into a transit hub for regional countries through railway corridors. “Through the railway, Afghanistan can also import goods at a significantly lower cost, making essential commodities more affordable for its people,” Rahman stressed. More importantly, the railway opens a route for Central Asian natural resources to reach global markets via the ocean and further enhances the viability of the westward-flowing Middle Corridor. In short, the Afghan rail projects are important for connecting Eurasia. It is, therefore, no coincidence that Kazakhstan – being the richest country in terms of mineral wealth in Central Asia...

Trump Tariffs

Trump’s 100% Tariffs May Target Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan

U.S. President Donald Trump has signaled a new wave of sanctions against Russia, including the potential imposition of 100% tariffs on its trading partners, which could affect Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and other former Soviet states. Who Could Be Affected? On July 15, President Trump announced an escalation in U.S. arms deliveries to Ukraine and warned of intensified sanctions against Russia. If no progress is made in resolving the conflict within 50 days, the U.S. will implement additional measures, including secondary tariffs of up to 100% on countries trading with Russia. Experts warn that Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Azerbaijan may be particularly vulnerable. Although not among Russia’s largest trading partners, these countries maintain extensive commercial ties with Moscow. According to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), China, India, and Turkey accounted for 74 percent of Russia's fossil fuel revenue in 2024. Oil exports totaled €104 billion, petroleum products €75 billion, gas €40 billion, and coal €23 billion. Despite multiple sanctions packages, the European Union continues to import Russian energy. In 2024, the EU spent €21.9 billion on Russian oil and gas, just 1% less than in 2023. Over the same period, EU financial assistance to Ukraine amounted to €18.7 billion, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. Yet Trump may spare Russia’s largest trading partners. In recent months, he has taken steps to impose severe tariffs on the European Union and China, only to reverse course under pressure from business groups and concerns about global trade disruptions. Nevertheless, Kazakhstan received formal notification from the U.S. on July 7 that a 25% tariff on its goods will take effect from August 1, 2025. This raises the possibility that smaller economies in Russia’s orbit may become targets of U.S. economic retaliation. Already in the Crosshairs Kazakh analyst Olzhas Baidildinov noted that trade between Kazakhstan and Russia totaled $27.8 billion in 2024, with $18.2 billion in exports from Russia and $9.5 billion from Kazakhstan. "Such figures certainly cannot escape the attention of OFAC,” Baidildinov wrote, referring to the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control. “European sanctions apply only within Europe. However, Kazakhstan continues to import Russian oil, gas, and petroleum products. Secondary sanctions, as I’ve previously warned, are merely a matter of minor adjustments to existing measures,” he added. Trump’s administration may also be overlooking Kazakhstan’s unique geographic and economic ties to Russia. The two countries share the world’s longest continuous land border, over 7,500 kilometers, and are closely connected through pipelines, energy infrastructure, and raw materials trade. Azerbaijan and Kyrgyzstan Also Vulnerable Azerbaijan’s trade with Russia reached approximately $4.8 billion in 2024, an increase of 10.1 percent. Russia ranks as Azerbaijan’s third-largest trading partner, after Italy and Turkey. Exports to Russia totaled $1.178 billion, accounting for 4.4 percent of Azerbaijan’s total exports. Notably, Russia is the largest buyer of Azerbaijan’s non-oil products, with a 34.6 percent share. Imports from Russia include foodstuffs, machinery, and metals, while Azerbaijan supplies gas, textiles, and agricultural goods. Kyrgyzstan is also at risk....

Internet

Turkmenistan Tightens Internet Blocks to Promote State-Controlled VPNs

Internet restrictions in Turkmenistan have intensified sharply in recent weeks, according to sources who spoke with turkmen.news. Authorities have reportedly expanded the national IP blacklist by adding numerous /16 subnets, each covering over 65,000 IP addresses. While such sweeping blocks might appear politically motivated, insiders claim the real motive is commercial: corrupt officials are using the restrictions to market and sell VPN services and “whitelist” access they control themselves. In July 2024, Turkmen authorities briefly restored access to around 3 billion previously blocked IP addresses, raising hopes of a more open digital environment and a boost to the stagnant online economy. However, that reprieve proved temporary. The blocks soon returned, initially targeting smaller /24 subnets (255 IP addresses each). This summer, the government's cybersecurity department escalated efforts by blocking entire /16 subnets, cutting off hundreds of thousands of websites in a matter of weeks. Restrictions Without Justification Turkmenistan already ranks among the most digitally isolated nations. Independent media, global social networks, and any platforms perceived to host criticism of the government have long been inaccessible. However, the latest wave of blocks is not driven by political considerations, as most politically sensitive platforms were already restricted. Instead, the scale and targets of the new blocks suggest other motivations. According to turkmen.news, even benign and essential online services, such as update servers for antivirus software like Bitdefender and some Google utilities, have been caught in the dragnet. Experts warn that this poses a growing cybersecurity risk in a country with limited digital literacy and inadequate access to software updates. Selling Access in a Closed System Sources allege that Turkmen officials are using the crackdown to corner the market for virtual private networks. VPN keys now cost around 1,000 manats (roughly $50) per month, while access to a whitelist, ensuring uninterrupted connectivity, can run up to $2,000 monthly. The officials reportedly behind the scheme are said to be deliberately blocking alternatives to force users into purchasing their products. Last year, turkmen.news identified several figures allegedly involved in this scheme: Maksat Geldyev, Allanazar Kulnazarov, and Didar Seyidov. While these individuals reportedly profit from the artificial scarcity they create, the broader economy suffers. Analysts estimate that Turkmenistan loses millions of dollars daily due to the constraints on digital development, which is a key factor in modern GDP growth. Official Denials Amid International Scrutiny Despite mounting evidence, the Turkmen government continues to deny the severity of the situation. The Foreign Ministry recently issued a statement condemning Ukrainian television channel FreeDom for what it described as “biased and false” coverage of the country’s internet restrictions. Nonetheless, experts warn that unless the government reverses course, Turkmenistan’s digital isolation will continue to hinder economic development, deepen cybersecurity vulnerabilities, and further disconnect its population from the global information space.

Tennis

Tennis Revolution in Kazakhstan: How Systemic Investment Is Creating Champions

Over the past decade, Kazakhstan has evolved from a promising tennis nation into a formidable contender on the global stage. Elena Rybakina’s Wimbledon triumph, Alexander Bublik’s steady rise, and a new wave of top-ranked juniors are no coincidence; they are the product of a long-term, meticulously executed strategy. In an interview with The Times of Central Asia, Yuriy Polskiy, President of the Asian Tennis Federation and Vice President of the Kazakhstan Tennis Federation (KTF), explains how strategic investment, public-private partnerships, and a grassroots approach have fundamentally reshaped the country's tennis landscape. TCA: Kazakhstani tennis players have recently made headlines at top international tournaments. How would you assess Kazakhstan’s current standing on the global tennis map? Are the successes of Elena Rybakina and Alexander Bublik, as well as the emergence of top juniors, the result of systemic work or just coincidence? Polskiy: Luck plays a role in any athlete’s career, but it's fleeting. Kazakhstan’s results, among both professionals and juniors, are consistent, which points to a system that delivers. Over the past decade, we’ve seen numerous players ranked in the world’s top 30: Shvedova, Voskoboeva, Kukushkin, Golubev, Korolev, Nedovyesov, and more recently, Diyas, Putintseva, Danilina, Bublik, and, of course, Rybakina. Together, they’ve secured four Grand Slam titles, reached multiple singles and doubles finals, and won WTA 1000, 500, and ATP/WTA 250 tournaments. Among the juniors, talents like Dastanbek Tashbulatov, Amir Omarkhanov, and Sonya Zhienbayeva have ranked in the ITF Top 5 and Top 20. Our Under-14 and Under-18 national teams have reached the world’s top four and consistently defeated traditional powerhouses such as Australia, France, Italy, and Argentina. These results underscore the strength of Kazakhstan’s national coaching program and the Federation’s long-term vision. In 2024, Kazakhstan had six players in the ITF junior Top 100, including three in the Top 50. Seven more under-14s were ranked in the Tennis Europe Top 100, more than Italy, currently the leader in that category. Notably, all 13 of these top-ranked juniors were born and raised in Kazakhstan, highlighting the success of a nationwide, structured development model that blends public support with private initiative. TCA: What is the Federation’s strategic outlook for the next five to ten years? How extensive is the infrastructure, and are there plans to expand into smaller cities? Polskiy: Since 2007, when businessman and philanthropist Bulat Utemuratov became the KTF president, Kazakhstan has built 38 major tennis centers, each with at least six courts, totaling 364 hard and clay courts nationwide. Over the past 17 years, more than $150 million has been invested in infrastructure. Hundreds of coaches have been trained, particularly for early childhood programs. The number of certified ITF coaches has nearly doubled in five years, now surpassing 400. Infrastructure growth has significantly reduced training costs: hourly court rental has dropped from $50 in 2007 to just $10 today. Facilities now exist in 16 of the 18 regional capitals and smaller cities like Lisakovsk. Major complexes in Astana, Almaty, Shymkent, Karaganda, Aktobe, and Ust-Kamenogorsk each include six indoor and...

OPEC

Kazakhstan Reaffirms OPEC+ Commitment While Seeking to Renegotiate Investor Contracts

Kazakhstan has confirmed it will remain a part of the OPEC+ agreement on oil production cuts, despite persistently exceeding its allocated quotas. Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov made the announcement at a press conference on Tuesday, while also revealing that the government is initiating negotiations to revise production sharing agreements (PSAs) with foreign investors operating in the country’s largest oil and gas fields. The OPEC+ agreement, an alliance between OPEC members and non-OPEC oil-producing countries, including Kazakhstan, aims to coordinate output to stabilize global energy markets. Under the current deal, signed in December 2023, member states voluntarily committed to cutting combined oil production by 2.17 million barrels per day through the end of 2026. However, Kazakhstan has consistently exceeded its quota in recent months. According to the Ministry of Energy, oil exports in June 2025 reached 1.86 million barrels per day, 80,000 more than in May and nearly 500,000 barrels above the country’s voluntary limit. The surge is primarily attributed to the expansion of the Tengiz oil field, one of Kazakhstan’s largest energy projects. The $49 billion Future Growth Project is already operational and is expected to boost annual output by 12 million tons, or roughly 260,000 barrels per day, an increase of nearly 40%. Acknowledging the challenges of meeting OPEC+ targets, Bektenov emphasized Kazakhstan’s continued commitment to the deal: “We are not considering withdrawing from the OPEC+ agreement, as we believe it is useful and contributes to stability in the oil market,” Bektenov stated. “We will strive to fulfill our obligations, but with national interests in mind.” At the same time, Bektenov underscored the government’s limited control over production levels at key fields such as Tengiz, Karachaganak, and Kashagan, where foreign investors hold substantial stakes. “We cannot demand that our partners reduce production, as they have made significant investments and are counting on a return,” he said. To address this issue, Kazakhstan has begun discussions with investors to revise existing PSAs, aiming to secure a greater share of national revenues from energy production. “There is a view that the country’s interests are not fully reflected in the existing agreements. We are starting a dialogue on new agreements for a new period,” Bektenov said. “At the same time, we will act carefully to maintain the investment climate.” This dual strategy, upholding international commitments while seeking more favorable terms, illustrates Kazakhstan’s intent to balance global cooperation with national economic priorities. PSAs for the country’s three main oil fields are due to expire in the coming decades: Tengiz in 2033, Karachaganak in 2037, and Kashagan in 2041. Together, these fields account for approximately two-thirds of Kazakhstan’s total oil output, 67 million out of 90 million tons annually. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev instructed the government in January to begin seeking revisions to the PSA terms well ahead of their expiration.

Water Security

Melting Mountains, Drying Futures: Central Asia Confronts Water Emergency

Central Asian countries are mobilizing against an emerging water crisis as a United Nations report highlights the vulnerability of mountain water systems to climate change. Identifying ranges like the Tien Shan and the Pamirs, the UN World Water Development Report 2025 – Mountains and Glaciers: Water Towers – warns that rapid glacier melt and erratic snowfall are threatening vital freshwater supplies worldwide. According to the report, mountains provide up to 60% of the world’s annual freshwater flows, with over two billion people depending directly on water from mountain sources. This risk is particularly acute in Central Asia: a UN drought outlook noted that rising temperatures and shrinking snowpack in the high mountains of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are accelerating glacier retreat, posing a “long-term threat to the region’s water security.” Half of rural mountain communities in developing countries already face food insecurity, and receding glaciers could impact two-thirds of all irrigated agriculture globally – a dire scenario for Central Asia’s irrigation-dependent economies. Rivers like the Amu Darya and Syr Darya are fed by glacier runoff and support downstream agriculture, hydropower, and municipal needs in Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan. But climate-driven glacial retreat, inefficient irrigation, and aging infrastructure have already pushed the region toward a breaking point. [caption id="attachment_33952" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] Lake Karakul in Tajikistan is expanding due to melting glaciers; image: TCA, Stephen M. Bland[/caption] Kazakhstan Steps Up Leading the regional response, Kazakhstan has launched sweeping reforms to modernize its water infrastructure and governance. The country has committed to building 42 new reservoirs, refurbishing 14,000 kilometers of irrigation canals, and investing heavily in digital water monitoring and conservation. Established in September 2023, the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation is coordinating the overhaul under an updated national Water Code. The government has also launched an integrated water portal, hydro.gov.kz, and pledged to digitize more than 3,500 kilometers of canals for precise flow tracking. In an address at the Astana International Forum, Deputy Prime Minister Kanat Bozumbayev framed water as a “powerful driver of cooperation, sustainable development and regional stability,” urging closer regional coordination. Kazakhstan is also leading environmental restoration efforts. As the current chair of the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (IFAS), it is overseeing projects to rehabilitate the North Aral Sea, including raising the Kokaral Dam to restore water levels and fisheries. In 2024 alone, local irrigation reforms in Kyzylorda saved 200 million cubic meters of water, which was redirected toward the shrinking sea. [caption id="attachment_12017" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] The Kokaral Dam in Kazakhstan; image: TCA, Stephen M. Bland[/caption] International Support and Financing Kazakhstan’s strategy has been backed by a plethora of international partners. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has financed over €255 million in water and wastewater projects in Kazakhstan, including a €96.4 million sovereign loan for a new treatment plant in Aktobe. Meanwhile, the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) and UNDP have launched a regional partnership to expand access to modern irrigation, digitize water flows, and establish training centers. “We must act very quickly and...