International Affairs - The Times Of Central Asia

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Diplomacy

EU Sanctions Envoy’s Kazakh Visit Signals Rising Stakes

On January 30, David O’Sullivan, the European Union’s Special Envoy for Sanctions, made his fourth visit to Kazakhstan. Following the visit, he gave a briefing in Astana, where he discussed the new sanctions package, which could theoretically include Kazakh companies that assist Russia in circumventing restrictions. What O’Sullivan Said According to O'Sullivan, only companies with indisputable evidence against them of involvement in violations will added to the sanctions list. “We are currently working on preparing a new, 16th package of sanctions. It is possible that Kazakh companies may be added to the list, but no decision has been made yet. We conduct a detailed analysis of companies, examine their trade relations, and review the goods they have previously traded. Of course, we prefer to work with governments to find a systematic solution rather than simply adding individual companies to the list. However, when there is no other option, we do add them,” O’Sullivan explained. The EU Sanctions Envoy reiterated that the EU remains one of Kazakhstan’s key economic partners, with mutual trade turnover reaching nearly 40 billion euros per annum. The EU accounts for 38% of Kazakhstan’s exports and 55 billion euros in direct foreign investments. Highlighting the importance of economic ties, O’Sullivan stated that the EU fully respects Kazakhstan’s position on sanctions, but urged authorities to take strict measures against third-party entities using the country’s trade channels. “We have concerns that unscrupulous actors may try to use Kazakhstan as a platform to circumvent our sanctions,” O’Sullivan warned, pointing to the import of high-tech goods such as microchips, sensors, and circuits, which have been found in Russian drones, missiles, and artillery shells. O'Sullivan noted that these goods, listed in an open “common high-priority list” of 50 codes, are not produced in Kazakhstan but are allegedly being re-exported from EU and G7 countries through Kazakh intermediaries. While they make up less than 1% of Kazakhstan’s total trade volume, O’Sullivan emphasized that these are “lethal products that kill innocent Ukrainian civilians.” The special envoy recalled that in 2024, the EU blacklisted two Kazakh companies and issued a warning that this list could be expanded. He noted that particular attention is being given to companies that emerged immediately after the invasion of Ukraine and the start of the new sanctions regime. “These are usually not well-established, well-known companies with a long history of trading. The fact that a company was created right after the invasion and the imposition of sanctions suggests that its sole purpose may be to evade sanctions,” he stated while stressing that merely registering after 2022 is not sufficient grounds for inclusion on the sanctions list. Strategically Important Central Asia Given the statistics cited by O’Sullivan, there was no pressing need for his fourth personal visit to Kazakhstan. The blacklisting of two Kazakh companies last year went largely unnoticed by the country’s general public. However, his visit highlights the mechanisms of international politics set in motion following Donald Trump’s return to the White House and the opening gambits of his administration,...

Transport Cooperation

Turkey, Uzbekistan, and Azerbaijan Plan New Trade Route Connecting Asia and Europe

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan met with delegations from Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan on January 29 to discuss strengthening regional trade and connectivity. At the meeting, Uzbekistan's Foreign Minister Bakhtiyor Saidov delivered a letter from President Shavkat Mirziyoyev. “We conveyed the warmest greetings and a letter from His Excellency the President of Uzbekistan, Shavkat Mirziyoyev. The strong ties between our leaders form the foundation for close cooperation in all areas. Our peoples, connected by a shared history, traditions, and customs, are working together for a better future,” Saidov wrote on Telegram. Saidov was in Ankara for a trilateral forum with his Turkish and Azerbaijani counterparts. Ahead of the event, he held talks with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov. During the forum, the three countries discussed expanding trade routes between Asia and Europe, as reported by the Anadolu Agency. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated that the Middle Corridor — which runs through Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, the Caucasus, and Turkey — has proven to be the most reliable and cost-effective trade route between the two continents. Fidan stressed the importance of regional cooperation in the economic, transport, and energy sectors, particularly in light of recent global disruptions caused by the pandemic and conflicts. He also noted Turkey’s growing role as an energy hub amid ongoing challenges in global energy supply. Beyond trade, the ministers addressed regional security concerns, including the situation in Syria. Fidan described recent developments there as a “new window of opportunity” for reconstruction and stability. He called for joint efforts to support Syria’s rebuilding process, emphasizing that stability in the region would enhance trade, transport, and energy cooperation. During the forum, Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Uzbekistan outlined a joint declaration and road map for future cooperation, covering foreign policy and regional cooperation between the three countries; expanding trade, economic, and investment ties to boost regional commerce; and developing transport routes and enhancing regional connectivity. Transport ministers from all three nations will now work on improving logistics and transit routes to further facilitate trade.

Middle Corridor

Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan’s High-Stakes Race for Pakistan

In recent years, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have embarked on distinct yet complementary paths to enhance their connectivity with Pakistan. Kazakhstan has embedded itself within such institutionalized frameworks as the Middle Corridor (also known as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, or TITR). In this context, it has also sought to align with trans-Eurasian logistics designed to integrate South Asian trade routes into established infrastructural regimes. Uzbekistan, by contrast, marginalized from World Bank-backed corridors, has adopted a more adaptive and tactical approach by advancing alternative linkages such as the Termez–Karachi transport corridor and the Trans-Afghan Railway. Both strategies reflect the imperative to reduce dependence on Russian-controlled northern routes while leveraging Pakistan’s maritime infrastructure to reposition Central Asia within the matrix of regional and global trade. Thus, a few days ago, at a meeting with Uzbekistan’s Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Pakistan, the prospect of developing the Termez–Karachi transport corridor was discussed. Termez is on Uzbekistan's border with Afghanistan; the goods would travel via Kabul and Kandahar to Quetta, then to the Karachi port. The possibility of establishing an advanced logistics terminus in Termez with the assistance of Pakistan's National Logistics Corporation was explored. The two sides noted the need to create a permanent platform for business communications between them, such as an Entrepreneurs' Council coordinated by their respective Chambers of Commerce. This road route should not be confused with the Trans-Afghan Corridor (TAC, also called the Trans-Afghan Railway Project or the Uzbekistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan Railway Project), a $4.8 billion project to connect the three countries via 573 kilometers of rail. This rail route would run from Termez through Mazar-e-Sharif and Logar in Afghanistan, reaching Pakistan at the Kharlachi border crossing and extending to Kohat District, where a rail link southward already exists. In August 2024, the governments of Kazakhstan and Pakistan agreed to extend the TAC's route into northeast Kazakhstan to create the Trans-Afghan Multimodal Transport Corridor: multimodal because goods would arrive from Kazakhstan at Uzbekistan's Termez terminus by truck, for transshipment by rail to Pakistani ports. From there, they can reach a broad range of countries from Southeast Asia to South Asia to the Middle East. Kazakhstan, pursuing its goal to diversify its export pathways and reduce dependence on traditional northern routes, has explored several connectivity projects that have either direct or indirect implications for trade routes to Pakistan. Of these, the three most significant are the Trans-Afghan Multimodal Transport Corridor (TMTC), the Middle Corridor, and the Quadrilateral Traffic in Transit Agreement (QTTA). The Middle Corridor is the best-known of the three. Seeking to connect China to Europe via the Caspian region, it is not directly pertinent for Pakistan, but it would offer the potential to integrate with Pakistani trade routes, offering an alternative pathway for goods. The QTTA includes China, Kyrgyzstan, and Pakistan along with Kazakhstan. This transit deal aims to facilitate Kazakhstan's foreign trade by providing it with access to Pakistani ports via the Karakoram Highway, which connects Pakistan and China, thereby bypassing Afghanistan. It was agreed in 2017 and...

Regional Cooperation

Tajikistan and Russia Discuss Resuming Rail and Bus Routes

Tajikistan and Russia are in discussions to resume passenger train service between Dushanbe and Moscow, as well as bus routes between cities in both countries. These services were suspended due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Tajikistan’s Minister of Transport, Azim Ibrohim, shared this information at a press conference in response to a question from TASS. He said the issue was discussed in Moscow during a meeting between the Tajik delegation and Russian Transport Minister Roman Starovoit at the CIS Coordination Transport Conference. “We addressed many transport-related issues and reached a full understanding. There were no unresolved matters, but some require time, including the Dushanbe-Moscow railway route,” Ibrohim stated. He added that discussions are ongoing, with a final decision expected soon. The minister also noted that rail service between Bishkek and Moscow resumed late last year. In addition to rail services, Tajikistan and Russia are working to expand bus connections. In mid-January, bus routes from Khujand to Novosibirsk, Tyumen, and Surgut were restored. Currently, passenger trains from Tajikistan — departing from Dushanbe, Kulyab, and Khujand — only operate to Volgograd. If negotiations succeed, the resumption of direct rail and bus links will further facilitate travel and trade between the two countries.

Trump Administration

USAID Freeze Leaves Central Asian NGOs in Limbo

On January 20, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order suspending funding for most foreign aid programs for 90 days. The move has raised concerns among non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in Central Asia, particularly in Kazakhstan, which has long benefited from U.S. assistance. The order reads: “All heads of departments and agencies responsible for United States foreign development assistance programs shall immediately suspend new commitments and disbursements of development assistance funds to foreign countries and non-governmental implementing organizations, international organizations, and contractors pending a review of such programs for effectiveness and consistency with United States foreign policy to be conducted within 90 days of this order.” Following this directive, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio instructed all diplomatic and consular agencies to issue “stop-work orders” for nearly all active foreign assistance programs. Impact on Kazakhstan and Central Asia According to reports, the funding freeze is expected to affect university grant programs, entrepreneurial initiatives, gender diversity projects, and environmental efforts. The Trump administration has justified the decision by citing the need to reassess spending priorities. Kazakhstan and other Central Asian countries have received U.S. aid for decades. USAID, in particular, has played a significant role in regional development. The agency’s website states: “In Kazakhstan, USAID promotes the U.S. government's Central Asia Strategy, which supports and strengthens the sovereignty and independence of Central Asian countries, both individually and collectively. It also promotes regional connectivity between Central Asia and Afghanistan, advances the rule of law and respect for human rights, and improves the climate for U.S. investment to foster greater regional stability and prosperity.” Since 1992, USAID has funded projects in Kazakhstan focusing on economic diversification, energy, environmental protection, healthcare, and support for media and NGOs. In addition to funding NGOs, USAID collaborates with KazAID, Kazakhstan’s foreign aid agency operating under the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Reactions from NGO Leaders Denis Dzhivaga, director of the Kazakhstan International Bureau for Human Rights and Rule of Law (KIBHR), told The Times of Central Asia that the aid suspension had been anticipated. “Such a measure was expected," said Dzhivaga. "Even during the election campaign and Trump’s previous presidency, it was clear that he prioritized domestic policy over foreign influence. All NGOs working with USAID and receiving State Department assistance have received letters to halt projects.” However, Dzhivaga noted that KIBHR has limited cooperation with U.S. agencies, so the impact on his organization will be minimal. “In any case, this will negatively affect the NGO sector. The suspension is for three months pending an audit, but even USAID does not seem to know what will happen afterward. I don’t think U.S. assistance to Kazakhstan and Central Asia will stop entirely, but certain projects may be reconsidered - especially those related to discrimination, gender issues, and LGBT rights, as President Trump has already expressed opposition to such initiatives.” Replacing U.S. funding with alternative grants will be challenging, he added. “European donors are already struggling to finance Ukraine, so they are unlikely to allocate substantial funds elsewhere. Many U.S.-backed...

Air Transport

Uzbekistan Airways Reroutes Flights to Europe, Avoiding Russia and Belarus

Uzbekistan Airways has altered its flight routes to Europe, bypassing Russian and Belarusian airspace. The airline’s chairman, Shukhrat Khudoykulov, announced the decision at a press conference on January 28, according to local media reports. Flights are now taking a more southern route through Azerbaijan and Turkey. The change took effect on January 20, 2025. Reason for the Rerouting The airline’s press service told Kun.uz that the decision was made based on a recommendation from the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) and was not related to the recent Azerbaijan Airlines crash. “This is a recommendation from the European Aviation Safety Agency since we also serve European passengers,” the airline’s statement said. The change comes in the wake of the Azerbaijan Airlines crash on December 25, 2024. The aircraft, which was flying from Baku to the Russian city of Grozny, crashed near Aktau, Kazakhstan. Of the 67 people on board, 38 died, while 29 survived. Initial reports suggested that a Russian air defense system may have mistakenly shot down the plane during a Ukrainian drone attack on Grozny. A missile reportedly exploded near the aircraft, damaging its fuselage. Kazakhstan, which initially led the investigation, has transferred the case to Brazil’s aviation safety agency (CENIPA). The findings have been sent back to Kazakhstan and are expected to be released soon. Impact on Flight Times and Costs In response to Repost.uz, Uzbekistan Airways clarified that the change was made as a precautionary measure and also to helps optimize flight routes. The rerouting has increased travel distances. For example, the Tashkent-Munich flight, which previously covered 4,849 kilometers when flying through Russia, now spans 5,156 kilometers. This adds 30 to 40 minutes to flight times and raises operational costs for the airline.