Regional Cooperation - The Times Of Central Asia

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Russia Regional Cooperation

Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan: A Partnership Born From Rivalry

Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are the largest countries in Central Asia in terms of their economy, population, and vital infrastructure. In the first decades after the collapse of the USSR, the two republics visibly competed for regional supremacy, but this situation has changed dramatically. A Test of Sovereignty Uzbeks and Kazakhs are related Turkic peoples who have lived side by side for centuries, and, therefore, have experienced many mutual offenses from each other in their shared history. Perhaps this is the semi-official explanation for the rivalry between Tashkent and Astana during the reigns of the first presidents of these republics - Islam Karimov and Nursultan Nazarbayev. Another explanation for the struggle for leadership in Central Asia between Nazarbayev and Karimov lies in an old Kazakh proverb: "Two heads (of sheep) cannot fit in one pot." The implication is that there cannot be two leaders in one region at this level of multiple countries and personalities. Nazarbayev and Karimov, out of rivalry between the Soviet party nomenklatura, to which they both belonged, could not allow either of the other to rise. In the end, Moscow chose closer relations with Astana, which led to Tashkent withdrawing from the Collective Security Treaty Organization. Kazakh political scientist Maxim Kaznacheev has stated that this happened because Kazakhstan participated in various alliances, whilst Uzbekistan refused to do so, an indication that Tashkent had passed the sovereignty test, to the chagrin of Russia. "The ability of the government to pursue a sovereign policy should be put at the top of the list when determining a real regional leader. Uzbekistan has done better on this exam. Over the past decades, officially Tashkent has relied mainly on bilateral arrangements, avoiding active participation in multilateral integration formations," the political scientist stated. The Devil in the Details Despite these characteristics, Tashkent does not appear to have gained any advantages from this strategy, whether forced or chosen, due to a weak diplomatic corps. However, perhaps an Uzbek renaissance is yet to come. In late 2022, the Eurasian Development Bank published a report, "Central Asia's Economy: A New Look," which analyzed the prospects for interaction between Central Asian countries and the potential for the region to become a significant player in the world's economic map. According to this document, Kazakhstan remains the leading Central Asian economy, with its nominal 2021 GDP of $197.1 billion, 1.3 times the combined volume of the other four countries in the region. The report noted that by the end of 2022, Kazakhstan accounted for almost 60% of the total GDP of Central Asia. At the same time, GDP growth at the end of 2022 amounted to 3.2% compared to an average annual growth rate of 3.9% from 2010-2021. Uzbekistan is the next-largest economy in Central Asia after Kazakhstan, with a GDP of $69.2 billion in 2021, and $80.4 billion by the end of 2022. Although its nominal GDP is far smaller than Kazakhstan's, and its annual growth rate ($11 billion vs. $27 billion) does not seem to threaten Kazakhstan's...

Regional Cooperation Regional Development CAMCA

Eurasian Connectivity Comes One Step Closer at the 2024 CAMCA Forum in Bishkek

The wider Eurasia region took another step towards cooperation and connectivity last week, as the 10th annual CAMCA Regional Forum was held in Bishkek. CAMCA – standing for Central Asia, Mongolia, the Caucasus and Afghanistan – is an initiative to accelerate dialogue between governments, private enterprises and media figures from these ten nations. Organized by the Washington, D.C.-based Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and the Rumsfeld Foundation, this year’s Forum – the first such event to take place in Kyrgyzstan – featured over 300 delegates across its two days, and presented insights from over 70 speakers. Attendees came from 25 countries in total. Professor Frederick Starr, the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute’s chairman, used his opening address to call on the countries of the region to start preparing for a future within a cohesive international bloc. Dr Starr reasoned that Russia and China, imperial powers that have traditionally had a controlling presence in Central Asia, may see their global influence wane in the coming decade. This would give the countries of Central Asia, and their neighbors, more space to create projects that serve their economies directly. A leading CAMCA regional project is the ‘Middle Corridor’ trade route, which bypasses Russia to transport goods more efficiently between Europe and China. Discussions are also taking place concerning the creation of single business and tourist visas for the whole Central Asia region. The importance of collaboration between countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia to mitigate the impact of climate change has never been so great. Addresses by senior members of the Kyrgyz government highlighted the progress that Kyrgyzstan has made since the administration of president Sadyr Japarov began its work in 2021. The country’s deputy prime minister Edil Baisalov reported that Kyrgyzstan is on track to double its GDP to $30 billion by 2030, while the minister for digital development, Nuria Kutnaeva, spoke about the rapid digitalization of the country’s government services. In a noticeably warm and collaborative atmosphere, the event nonetheless highlighted the barriers that prevent the ten countries from forming a tangible ‘CAMCA’ space in the present. A key goal is the harmonization of their legislation and policy directions; however, no delegates from Tajikistan could travel to Bishkek for the Forum, as otherwise solid relations between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are still strained by a dispute over their common border. Likewise, Armenian voices were also absent this time, in light of several of the sessions featuring Azerbaijani speakers and talking points. The event featured only one guest from Turkmenistan. Even in these conflicts, however, Central Asian diplomacy is at work. The conflict on the Kyrgyz-Tajik border, mainly in Tajikistan’s Vorukh district, is being resolved through negotiations between the two countries’ governments, which would have been unthinkable even five years ago. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan is acting as a mediator between Baku and Yerevan in the aftermath of the war in Nagorno-Karabakh. Other topics on the agenda included security priorities for Central Asia, digital innovation in business, cooperation with Afghanistan, transitions in global energy markets, and infrastructure projects...

China Security Regional Cooperation Emergency Responders

China and Central Asian Countries to Jointly Respond to Emergencies

China and the five Central Asian countries plan to sign a memorandum of understanding to establish a mechanism of cooperation in the field of emergency management, Wang Manda, head of the International Cooperation Department of China's Ministry of Emergency Management, said at a press conference in Beijing, Xinhua reports. Manda specified that the signing of the memorandum is expected to take place during a ministerial meeting between China and the Central Asian countries on emergency management to be held on May 30 in Urumqi, the administrative center of Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region. “Both China and the five Central Asian countries, namely Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, are at high risk of natural disasters, including earthquakes, floods, forest, and steppe fires. The upcoming meeting will review cooperation between the two sides in areas such as disaster prevention, damage mitigation, disaster management, industrial safety supervision, and comprehensive rescue work, and put forward new proposals to deepen practical cooperation,” Wang said. The two sides will also hold drills on emergency responses to accidents at oil and gas pipelines. Following the first China-Central Asia summit in May 2023, the emergency management agencies of China and the Central Asian states pledged to establish a new platform for regional cooperation and deepen cross-border cooperation in rescue operations. Over the past year, the Chinese side has held several events within the framework of cooperation on emergency management in the “China-Central Asia” format. Among them are forums of high-level think tanks on emergency management, seminars on improving industrial safety, and the exchange of experience in safety risks.

Security Eurasian Economic Union Regional Cooperation International Cooperation Sustainable Development

Kazakhstan’s President Commends Growing Cooperation Between Central Asian States

On May 16, Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev hosted the first meeting in Astana of Security Council secretaries from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, and the military attaché of the Embassy of Turkmenistan in Kazakhstan. In his opening address, Tokayev announced that the aim of the meeting was to provide an effective platform for the collaborative prevention of external and internal challenges and threats, and to develop necessary response measures. The Kazakh leader began by noting the steady growth of trade and economic cooperation between the Central Asian countries and stated that over the past five years, intraregional trade had risen by 80 percent to exceed $10 billion. He explained that large regional projects not only bring tangible mutual benefits, but also change the entire configuration of the Central Asian economy. The development of transport and logistics potential is becoming a new reference point for the rapid development of the region. Cultural and humanitarian ties have also intensified, contributing to the further rapprochement of the Central Asian states. Returning to the pressing issue of the need to join forces in countering transboundary challenges and threats, he announced: “First of all, we are talking about the fight against international extremism and terrorism, drug trafficking, and arms trafficking. In this regard, Afghanistan must be the focus of our common attention. Complex multidirectional processes are now evident in this country. Whilst signs point to a stabilization and revival of the economic situation, there remain high risks associated with the activity of international terrorist organizations, as evidenced by the bloody terrorist attack in the Moscow region [in March]. In our opinion, one of the strategic tasks at present is the active involvement of Afghanistan in regional ties. And for this, much depends on the coordinated position of our countries. We consider it urgent to create a UN Regional Center for Sustainable Development Goals for Central Asia and Afghanistan in our country.” Tokayev expressed his satisfaction with the growing regional cooperation and mutual trust and concluded: “Some 10 years ago, there was no such situation in the Central Asian region. Now heads of state, heads of government, secretaries of the Security Councils, heads of law enforcement agencies, not to mention heads of economic departments, closely interact with each other. And this is a very good sign that the situation in the Central Asian region is moving towards sustainable development.”

Trade Routes Regional Cooperation Taliban Economy Export/import Afghanistan Security Investments

Why Kazakhstan’s Deepening Ties With Afghanistan Are Significant

At the end of April a Kazakh delegation made an official visit to Kabul, where a meeting of the Kazakh-Afghan Business Forum and an exhibition of Kazakh products were held. This was the third bilateral event aimed at expanding trade and economic ties between Kazakhstan and Afghanistan. The visit to Kabul indicates Astana’s intention to enhance Kazakhstan’s relations with the new Afghan authorities, and not only through trade. This is evidenced by a number of details that differed from previous official contact. First, an unannounced trilateral government meeting took place between Afghanistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan in Kabul. The result was the announcement that a new logistics route to Afghanistan through Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan would be developed. There is nothing earthshaking about this – Turkmenistan is set to become a transportation hub for international corridors passing through Kazakhstan, primarily the North-South and the Middle corridors, as well as the Lapis Lazuli Corridor (Turkey-Azerbaijan-Turkmenistan-Afghanistan). What is significant is that the sides are striving to create favorable conditions for logistics, especially more competitive transport tariffs so trains can pass through faster. This is particularly important given congestion in Uzbekistan, where bottlenecks occur. The announcement in Kabul also means a direct route to economically attractive western Afghanistan and further south. What else made the Kabul visit notable was the meeting between Kazakh deputy prime minister Serik Zhumangarin, who oversees trade, and Abdul Kabir, the Taliban’s deputy prime minister for political affairs. Given the reputation of the Taliban, it is not in the interests of Astana to simply stage a conversation for the cameras. Unfortunately, details about the Zhumangarin-Kabir meeting are few. According to the available information, the deputy prime ministers discussed security issues in Afghanistan, apparently in the context of how to grow the Afghan economy. Following the meeting, Kabir stated that Afghanistan does not want to be a threat to the region, and intends to improve relations with its neighbors through the progressive development of trade and economic relations. The Zhumangarin-Kabir meeting is said to have taken place on the initiative of the Afghan side. Considering Kabir’s closeness to the emir of the Taliban, it is likely that the initiative came from him. Other notable outcomes of the visit of the Kazakh delegation to Kabul included: discussion of joint projects for geological exploration, mining and processing of solid minerals in Afghanistan, as well as in the IT sector; discussion of the possibilities for supplying Kazakh-made cars and subsequent localization of service centers in Afghanistan; a rise in the quota for Afghan students at Kazakh universities from 30 to 60, as well as a 10-day trip to children’s camps in Kazakhstan for 30 Afghan children in the summer of 2024; and discussion of the possibility of establishing direct flights between the two countries. Aidar Borangaziev is a Kazakhstani diplomat. He has worked in the diplomatic service in Iran and Afghanistan. He is a founder of the Open World Center for Analysis and Forecasting Foundation (Astana). He is an expert in regional security.