International Affairs - The Times Of Central Asia

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Middle East Crisis

Uzbekistan Repatriates Over 21,700 Citizens from Middle East

Uzbekistan has repatriated 21,712 citizens from several Middle Eastern countries as of 07:00 on March 9, the country’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has said, as evacuation efforts continue amid regional instability. Most of those returned came from Saudi Arabia, where 17,963 citizens were brought back to Uzbekistan. Additional repatriations included 3,290 people from the United Arab Emirates, 378 from Qatar, 47 from Iran, 27 from Bahrain, and seven from Oman. The ministry said the return of Uzbek citizens is being carried out “systematically and in stages,” with authorities continuing to coordinate transport and logistics for those seeking to return. Officials noted that many repatriation flights are currently being organized through countries whose airspace remains open to civilian aviation. Uzbekistan’s evacuation reflects the scale of its citizens’ presence across the Gulf. In recent years, the country has expanded labor migration agreements with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar, sending thousands of workers into construction, hospitality, and service sectors. Saudi Arabia has also become a major destination for religious travel from Uzbekistan, with large annual flows of pilgrims traveling for the Hajj and Umrah. Kazakhstan has also evacuated citizens during the crisis, bringing 8,585 people home from Middle Eastern countries since the operation began. Central Asian citizens travel widely to Gulf states for work, tourism, and pilgrimage, leaving thousands affected when conflicts disrupt flights and close regional airspace. The number of returned citizens has risen steadily over the past several days. According to the foreign ministry, 19,347 Uzbek citizens had returned home as of 07:00 on March 8. Uzbek diplomatic missions in the region have also issued safety guidance to citizens who remain abroad. In a statement published by the Embassy of Uzbekistan in Israel, citizens were urged to follow official security instructions issued by local authorities. The embassy said red alerts issued by Israel’s civil defense authorities indicate a dangerous situation and require people to stay near protected shelters and immediately enter them if warning sirens sound. Blue alerts indicate that the threat has passed, and people may leave shelters. Other Central Asian countries have also organized evacuations of their citizens. According to Tajik media outlet Asia-Plus, more than 300 citizens of Tajikistan returned home on March 8 on two flights from Dubai. One charter flight brought 130 Tajik citizens to Dushanbe in the morning, while a later flight operated by Somon Air transported another 180 passengers. The charter operation was organized with support from the Tajik embassy in the United Arab Emirates, local authorities, and the airline Flydubai. About 550 Tajik citizens have returned home from Abu Dhabi and Dubai on charter flights in recent days amid the ongoing regional conflict.

Iran

Central Asia Faces an Arc of Instability to the South

Until a few weeks ago, looking south from Central Asia, observers of the region saw nothing but opportunities for connectivity. Admittedly, Iran on one side and the area between Afghanistan and Pakistan on the other have never been known for their stability. However, the current situation sees two serious conflicts on the southern border of Central Asia, which risk representing an arc of instability that will be difficult to overcome. While the global energy implications of the ongoing war in the Middle East, which began following the joint attack by the United States and Israel on Iran, are likely to be felt for months to come, the greatest risk for the Central Asian region is related to connectivity. This could also compromise significant efforts made in this regard by regional governments. Consider, for example, the recent trip to Pakistan by Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, which focused on the possibility of building a railway from Pakistani ports to Kazakh territory via Afghanistan and Turkmenistan. For much of the past decade, Central Asian governments have invested heavily in opening southern trade routes to global markets. Railways through Afghanistan, port access through Iran, and new logistics corridors to Pakistan were meant to reduce dependence on northern routes and expand the region’s economic options. The sudden emergence of conflicts along the southern frontier now raises questions about how secure those connections will be. The Times of Central Asia spoke with Peter Frankopan, author and Professor of Global History at Oxford University, about the potential implications of the two wars on Central Asia’s southern border. According to him, the main risk is not related to connectivity, but to contagion: “The key issue is about the safety of civilians and the protection of infrastructure in Central Asia,” he told TCA. “In times like these, nothing can be ruled out. With Iran lashing out at neighbors and realizing that attacks on oil, gas and more give it leverage, it is not hard to see what might come next. Second, of course, are threats to national economies. Wars create winners and losers. One can see a boom for some people in Central Asian states, but plenty of pressures, especially on inflation.” Indeed, the economic repercussions of the Middle East conflict are already being felt in the region, particularly in Turkmenistan, which maintains some of the closest trade ties with Iran and shares a long border with the country. Frankopan does not see any particular differences in terms of the danger to Central Asia posed by what is happening in Iran and between Pakistan and Afghanistan: “Clearly, instability in Afghanistan is an immediate concern, but it is not related to Iran and will have its own velocity and rhythms. But the risks of expanding violence and terrorism, of refugees, of narcotics and other illicit trafficking are real - and may well get worse.” Regarding connectivity, one of the topics that Central Asian governments pay the most attention to, according to Frankopan, the current situation should not be considered an...

Iran

How an Incident on the Azerbaijan-Iran Border Became a Test for Diplomacy in the Region

The drone strike on Azerbaijan's Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic on March 5 has become one of the most serious incidents in relations between Baku and Tehran in recent years. Azerbaijani authorities described the incident as a terrorist act and demanded explanations and an apology from Iran. Tehran, in turn, rejected the accusations, suggesting the possibility of a provocation by “third forces.” Following the drone incident, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev held a phone call with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to discuss regional security. According to the Azerbaijani presidency, Aliyev thanked Tokayev for condemning the attack on Nakhchivan and for voicing support for Azerbaijan. What began as a local security incident has raised concerns about regional stability in the South Caucasus. Terrorist Act Against the State Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev issued a statement strongly condemning "this despicable terrorist act. Those who committed it must be brought to justice immediately,” Aliyev said. According to Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, one drone hit the terminal building of Nakhchivan International Airport, while another crashed near a school in the village of Shekerabad. Two civilians were reportedly injured. Baku stressed that the attack, allegedly launched from Iranian territory, violated international law and could lead to a dangerous escalation of tensions in the region. Diplomatic Escalation Despite the harsh rhetoric in the first hours after the incident, Baku opted to rely primarily on diplomatic tools. The Iranian ambassador was summoned to the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry and handed a formal note of protest requesting official explanations. Azerbaijan said on Friday that it was evacuating staff from its embassy in Tehran as well as its consulate in the city of Tabriz. At the same time, Azerbaijani security forces were placed on high alert. According to Aliyev, the country’s armed forces were instructed to prepare possible countermeasures. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke by phone with Aliyev, condemning the attack and expressing support for Azerbaijan, according to official statements. Reports of alleged Iranian-linked sabotage plots also surfaced, with the Azerbaijani authorities stating that several terrorist attacks had been prevented on the country’s territory. According to the State Security Service, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps was behind the plots. Among the alleged targets was the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, a strategic energy corridor linking the Caspian region with Turkey and one of the main routes for exporting Azerbaijani oil. According to Azerbaijani sources, other potential targets included the Israeli embassy, a synagogue in the capital, and a leader of the local Mountain Jewish community. The security service reported that three explosive devices had been brought into the country but were discovered and defused before they could be delivered. The development of the crisis has prompted increased diplomatic contact between world leaders. Russian President Vladimir Putin held a telephone conversation with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian amid the growing regional tensions. Shortly thereafter, Russia’s Foreign Ministry called on both sides to exercise restraint and emphasized the need for a thorough investigation into the drone strike. On March 7, the foreign ministers of all the Central...

Iran

OTS Faces Security Test from Turkey to Central Asia

Iran's widening war has now reached the institutional space linking Turkey, the South Caucasus, and Central Asia. Turkey said on March 4 that NATO air defenses destroyed an Iranian ballistic missile entering Turkish airspace, while Azerbaijan said the next day that four Iranian drones crossed into Nakhchivan, injuring four people, and damaging civilian infrastructure at the exclave’s airport. Iran denied targeting Nakhchivan; in the Turkish case, the missile’s intended target has not been fully clear in public reporting. Even so, the combined effect was unmistakable. By March 7, the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) had become more than a bystander to a Middle Eastern war that had earlier seemed outside its main agenda. This is what gave the OTS foreign ministers’ meeting in Istanbul its significance. The Turkish Foreign Ministry announced on March 6 that the informal meeting of the OTS Council of Foreign Ministers would be held in Istanbul on March 7, with Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan hosting. After the meeting, the ministers adopted a joint statement declaring that threats to the security of any OTS member are a matter of concern for the whole organization. That language does not make the OTS a military alliance. It does, however, show the organization moving more openly into collective political-security signaling when member states come under attack. Why Nakhchivan Matters Nakhchivan is central to the logic of this story. The exclave is an integral part of Azerbaijan, but is separated from the rest of the country. It borders Armenia, Iran, and Turkey, making it significant out of proportion to its size. A military strike there is not a routine border incident. It reaches one of the most sensitive nodes in the wider Turkic political space: it is a meeting point for Azerbaijani sovereignty, Turkish strategic concern, and Iranian proximity. Until recently, Nakhchivan’s special status and borders were anchored in the 1921 Moscow and Kars treaties, which gave Turkey and Soviet Russia a formal say over the exclave’s autonomy and, it could be argued, its external security. But last year, Baku folded Nakhchivan more tightly into Azerbaijan’s domestic legal order by removing those references (along with other changes) from the constitution of the exclave, which has suddenly become a target in a much wider regional confrontation. Baku’s response to the Iranian attack showed that it saw the incident in political as well as tactical terms. President Ilham Aliyev said Azerbaijan would prepare retaliatory measures. Reuters later reported that Azerbaijan had ordered the evacuation of its diplomats from Iran, citing safety concerns. This is understandable, particularly in light of the January 27, 2023, incident when an armed attacker entered Azerbaijan’s embassy in Tehran and opened fire, killing the head of the embassy’s security and wounding two other staff. Baku called this a terrorist attack, evacuated most of its diplomatic personnel, and suspended embassy operations. Azerbaijani officials also said the March 5 attack on Nakhchivan violated international law, rejecting any implication that it could have been a technical mishap. The stakes widened further after...

Iran

Kazakhstan Says Iranian President’s Statement is Step to Easing Mideast Tensions

Kazakhstan has welcomed a statement by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian about ending Iranian missile and drone attacks on neighboring countries, though some Gulf Arab states reported continuing attacks on Saturday. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev of Kazakhstan noted the statement by Pezeshkian, “who conveyed the decision of the Interim Governing Council to renounce attacks on neighboring countries,” said Aibek Smadiyarov, spokesman for Kazakhstan’s presidency. Tokayev “considers this an important step aimed at easing tensions in the Middle East,” Smadiyarov said. In a video message, Pezeshkian apologized “on my own behalf” for Iranian attacks on neighboring countries, including Azerbaijan, where two drones struck near an airport and a school. The Iranian president said Iran should not attack those countries unless they attack Iran. Iran has been governed by an interim council since Supreme Leader Ali Hosseini Khamenei was killed in an air strike at the start of the war a week ago. U.S. and Israeli forces have kept up intense bombardments since then and President Donald Trump is demanding that the Iranian government unconditionally surrender. Pezeshkian rejected Trump’s demand in his message on Saturday.

Middle East Crisis

Azerbaijan Orders its Diplomats to Leave Iran after Drone Attacks

Azerbaijan said on Friday that it is evacuating staff from its embassy in Tehran as well as its consulate in the Iranian city of Tabriz, one day after accusing Iran of drone attacks on its territory. Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov said an order has been issued to evacuate the diplomatic missions in Iran because of safety concerns, the state news agency Azertac reported. Bayramov spoke at a briefing in Baku with Moldovan counterpart Mihai Popşoi. Azerbaijan has also submitted a report to the International Civil Aviation Organization, a United Nations body, about the attack on the airport in the exclave of Nakhchivan, according to another outlet, the Azerbaijani Press Agency, or APA. Another Iranian drone landed near a school in Nakhchivan. Several civilians were injured in the attacks. Iran has told Azerbaijan that it is investigating. While the Azerbaijani military is on high alert, the government said social media reports that it had deployed heavy weapons along the border with Iran were false. Also, some cargo trucks are now crossing the border between Azerbaijan and Iran after a suspension because of the drone attacks. Azerbaijan has thanked dozens of countries, including some in Central Asia, for expressions of support following the attacks.