International Affairs - The Times Of Central Asia

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Central Asia-Italy Summit

Energy, Industry, and Diplomacy: Kazakhstan-Italy Relations Reach New Heights

On May 30, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will pay an official visit to Kazakhstan. The same day will also mark the inaugural Central Asia-Italy summit, to be held in Astana with the participation of regional heads of state. In anticipation of the visit, the Kazakh-Italian Business Forum opened in Astana on May 28, focusing on the development of trade and logistics cooperation. Kazakhstan’s Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov highlighted a key milestone in bilateral relations: trade between the two countries increased by 25% in 2024, reaching nearly US$20 billion. Of this, Kazakh exports accounted for more than US$18 billion. Diplomatic relations between Kazakhstan and Italy were established in 1992. Italy opened its embassy in Kazakhstan in October of that year, followed by the opening of the Kazakh embassy in Italy in 1996. In 1994, then-President Nursultan Nazarbayev made his first official visit to Rome. A reciprocal visit by Italian President Oscar Luigi Scalfaro followed in 1997. Over the ensuing decades, Kazakhstan received visits from Italian Prime Ministers Romano Prodi, Silvio Berlusconi, Mario Monti, and Matteo Renzi. Kassym-Jomart Tokayev visited Italy twice before assuming the presidency: first as Foreign Minister in 1997, and again in 2018 as Chairman of the Senate. His first presidential visit to Italy took place in January 2024. Over the years, bilateral relations have reached a high level of maturity. A sustained political dialogue is ongoing, mutual trade is rising, the legal framework is expanding, and multilateral cooperation is strengthening. A pivotal moment in this relationship came in 2009 with the signing of a Strategic Partnership Agreement. During a productive visit by Nazarbayev to Italy, multiple agreements were signed, facilitating mutual investments exceeding US$6 billion. Italy is now Kazakhstan’s third-largest trading partner, following China and Russia, and ranks among the top five foreign investors in the Kazakh economy. In 2023, bilateral trade turnover was around US$20 billion. Approximately 250 Italian companies operate in Kazakhstan, contributing significantly to sectors such as oil and gas, renewable energy, machine building, and agriculture. Over the past two decades, Italy has invested US$7.6 billion in Kazakhstan, prioritizing the oil and gas sector, green energy, machinery, and the agro-industrial complex. Kazakhstan's main exports to Italy include crude oil, ferroalloys, wheat and meslin, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, scrap precious metals, fuel oil, and cranes. In turn, Italy supplies Kazakhstan with pharmaceuticals, industrial equipment, pumps, and other finished goods. According to the Italian media, Prime Minister Meloni’s upcoming visit aims to strengthen energy and industrial cooperation. Meloni is expected to sign a cooperation agreement alongside President Tokayev between Italian firm, Maire, and Kazakhstan’s sovereign wealth fund Samruk-Kazyna to establish an engineering and industrial hub. Samruk-Kazyna is also slated to sign an agreement with Ansaldo Energia for the production of gas turbine components for power plants. In January 2024, during Tokayev’s visit to Rome, Ansaldo committed to supplying gas turbines and generators for the reconstruction of the TPP-3 power plant in Almaty, as well as collaborating on new energy projects. Additional agreements expected during the visit...

Military Defense

Russia Warns of Rising Security Threats in Central Asia During CSTO Talks in Bishkek

Kyrgyz Defense Minister Ruslan Mukambetov met with Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov in Bishkek to discuss the future of bilateral military cooperation. The meeting concluded with the signing of a Strategic Partnership Program in the Military Field extending through 2030. Belousov's visit comes ahead of the annual meeting of the Council of Defense Ministers of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), also taking place in the Kyrgyz capital. As part of the lead-up to the event, the two ministers held direct bilateral talks. Speaking at the meeting, Belousov stated that CSTO member states are “living in conditions of global instability” and must remain vigilant. “Both within the CSTO and in our bilateral relations, we must treat the emerging threats with the utmost care. And there are more and more of them,” he said. Belousov identified radical groups operating in Afghanistan as the primary security threat in Central Asia, citing Russian intelligence estimates that place their numbers at over 15,000 fighters. He also pointed to growing instability in the Middle East, which, according to Russian officials, has led to an increase in foreign fighters entering the region. Mukambetov, for his part, expressed satisfaction with the depth of military cooperation with Russia and highlighted continued collaboration across all defense sectors. The ministers discussed both current and prospective issues related to military and military-technical cooperation. Despite Moscow’s ongoing warnings about extremist threats in the region, some experts argue that Russia may be inflating the scale of the danger. The narrative of a looming Islamic threat remains a consistent theme in Russian security rhetoric. In a potentially contradictory move, the Russian Supreme Court recently lifted its long-standing ban on the Taliban movement. Nevertheless, Russian officials continue to present information on Afghan-based terrorist threats to their CSTO allies. The Kremlin has also voiced concerns about growing Western influence in Central Asia. According to reports, Russian officials believe Western countries have gained excessive sway in the region, a development Moscow sees as a strategic challenge.

Astana International Forum

Astana Gathers the World: Forum Elevates Kazakhstan’s Diplomatic Stature

The Astana International Forum 2025 (AIF2025), themed “Connecting Minds, Shaping the Future,” will take place in Kazakhstan’s capital on May 29-30. World leaders, business executives, investors, and experts will convene to address pressing global challenges and explore avenues for mutually beneficial agreements. Who is Expected in Astana? The AIF2025 aims to serve as a platform for open dialogue and to attract foreign capital. Participants will also seek to forge strategic partnerships and promote economic development initiatives. Approximately 600 international guests are expected, including prominent political figures, heads of international organizations, business leaders, investors, and members of the academic community. Confirmed attendees include Paul Kagame, President of Rwanda; Edi Rama, Prime Minister of Albania; Andrej Plenković, Prime Minister of Croatia, Gordana Siljanovska Davkova, President of the Republic of North Macedonia; and Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of Qatar. Ban Ki-moon, former UN Secretary-General and Chair of the Global Green Growth Institute and the Boao Forum for Asia, will also participate. Other distinguished guests include Alain Berset, Secretary General of the Council of Europe; Qu Dongyu, Director-General of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO); Amy Pope, Director General of the International Organization for Migration (IOM); Mathias Cormann, Secretary General of the OECD; and Daren Tang, Director General of the World Intellectual Property Organization. Also expected are Antonella Bassani, World Bank Vice President for Europe and Central Asia; Haoliang Xu, UNDP Deputy Secretary-General and Deputy Administrator; Jin Liqun, President of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB); Jürgen Rigterink, First Vice President of the EBRD; Kubanychbek Omuraliev, Secretary General of the Organization of Turkic States; and Sebastian Kurz, former Federal Chancellor of Austria. This year, the forum will focus on three global themes: politics and international security, energy and climate change, and economics and finance. According to the Kazakh government, AIF2025 takes place amid intensifying global competition for investment and showcases Kazakhstan’s openness to international collaboration. The country continues to solidify its global presence through comprehensive reforms, legal modernization, and a strengthened investment climate. On May 28, two bilateral business forums, Kazakhstan-France and Kazakhstan-Italy will precede the main event. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will also attend a Central Asia-Italy summit. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, in recent years Italy has emerged as one of the European countries most keen to maintain close relations with the countries of Central Asia. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is scheduled to open the forum. Global Anticipation Builds In the run-up to the event, several participants have already shared their expectations, with Maha Al-Kuwari, General Manager of the Doha Forum, saying that it was a privilege to be involved. “Together with the Qatar Development Fund, the Doha Forum will host a session focused on innovative approaches to enhancing global sustainability. Given geopolitical fragmentation, post-pandemic recovery, and disrupted supply chains, this discussion is vital, especially for developing and least developed countries,” she stated. The session will highlight new investment models and successful partnership frameworks spanning from Astana to Doha. Interviews...

Afghanistan

Kyrgyzstan Significantly Boosts Fuel Exports to Afghanistan

Exports of fuel and lubricants (F&L) from Kyrgyzstan to Afghanistan have surged in early 2025, according to the National Statistical Committee. In the first quarter of the year, Kyrgyzstan exported more than 40 million liters of gasoline and fuel oil to Afghanistan, a more than 100-fold increase compared to the same period in 2024. From January to March 2025, gasoline exports to Afghanistan’s Kunduz province reached $18.5 million in value, up from just 384,000 liters worth $212,000 a year earlier. Afghanistan now accounts for over 90% of Kyrgyzstan’s gasoline exports. Uzbekistan is the second-largest recipient, having imported 2.5 million liters of gasoline worth $1 million in the same period. The average export price stands at approximately $0.50 per liter. It is important to note that none of the exported gasoline is sourced from Russia. Under a bilateral agreement, fuel imported from Russia on preferential terms, grades AI-92 and AI-95, is designated solely for domestic use and is exempt from re-export. These Russian fuels are delivered duty-free via Kazakhstan, keeping retail gasoline prices in Kyrgyzstan around $0.80 per liter. According to the Oil Traders Association, the gasoline exported to Afghanistan and Uzbekistan typically includes the lower-cost AI-80 grade and fuel oil derived from local crude in southwestern Kyrgyzstan. In 2024, Kyrgyzstan imported 630 million liters of gasoline worth $277 million, primarily from Russia, with smaller volumes from Kazakhstan. Beyond fuel, Kyrgyzstan also exports other goods to Afghanistan, including: Approximately 8,000 tons of flour and vegetable oil annually; Around 12,000 tons of construction materials such as cement and metal structures. In return, Kyrgyzstan imports roughly 200,000 units of Afghan goods annually, including dried fruits, nuts, textiles, carpets, and other handicrafts.

Nagorno-Karabakh

Armenia, Azerbaijan Invited to Sign Peace Deal in Kyrgyzstan

Kyrgyzstan has offered to host the signing of a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, though tensions persist between the two longtime adversaries and a date for signing has not been set. Nurlanbek Turgunbek uulu, the parliamentary speaker of Kyrgyzstan, made the offer during a meeting in Armenia with Alen Simonyan, leader of that country’s National Assembly. The news was reported on Monday by Aravot, a publication based in Armenia. “Alen Simonyan touched upon the already completed draft of the Peace Agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, mentioning that the Armenian side is ready to sign it,” Aravot reported. “In response to this, the Head of the Kyrgyz Parliament noted that Kyrgyzstan is ready to provide a platform for the signing” of the peace deal. Kyrgyzstan’s parliamentary speaker was accompanied by several other parliamentarians on the May 25-27 trip to Armenia. Armenia and Azerbaijan said in March that they had agreed on the text of a peace deal after decades of conflict and Azerbaijan´s military seizure of the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region in 2023. However, Azerbaijan says Armenia must change its constitution to remove language that allegedly lays claim to Azerbaijani territory, while Armenia says Azerbaijan is using the issue as an excuse to undermine the peace deal. Kazakhstan has also sought to assist in peace efforts between Armenia and Azerbaijan, hosting a meeting of the foreign ministers of the two rivals in Almaty last year.

Regional Realignment

Central Asia’s Sovereignty in the Shadow of the War in Ukraine

The Ukraine war has fundamentally changed Central Asia's strategic positioning, accelerating diversification away from Russian dependence. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are navigating between maintaining necessary ties with Moscow, while asserting sovereignty through expanded partnerships with China, Turkey, and the West. The Sovereignty Imperative When Russian forces crossed into Ukraine in February 2022, the violation of territorial integrity sent immediate shockwaves through Central Asia. For leaders whose nations had endured centuries of Russian and Soviet rule, Vladimir Putin's denial of Ukrainian statehood carried threatening undertones. This concern proved well-founded; since 2014, Russian officials have increasingly questioned Central Asian independence, with Putin dismissing Kazakhstan as never having “any statehood,” and nationalist figures like Zakhar Prilepin suggesting the outright annexation of territories "labor migrants come from." This threat became tangible post-2022. Duma member Konstantin Zatulin warned that "with friends, we don't raise territorial questions... With the rest — like with Ukraine — everything is possible," while media personality Tigran Keosayan told Kazakhstan to "look at Ukraine carefully." Such rhetoric has deepened Central Asia’s resolve to defend its sovereignty, even as economic and security constraints limit dramatic policy shifts. Measured Defiance Despite expectations in some quarters that Kazakhstan would align with Moscow following the Russian-led CSTO intervention during the January 2022 unrest, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev defied such predictions. Sitting beside Putin in June 2022, Tokayev refused to recognize the "quasi-state territories" of Donetsk and Luhansk, drawing fierce Russian criticism. This principled neutrality, supporting neither Russia's war nor “blindly follow[ing]” Western sanctions, has largely succeeded in keeping Kazakhstan shielded from the ire of Moscow. Uzbekistan's President Shavkat Mirziyoyev adopted a similar positioning, with then Foreign Minister Abdulaziz Kamilov declaring Uzbekistan's recognition of Ukrainian territorial integrity. Though Kamilov was subsequently reassigned amid reports of Russian pressure, Tashkent has maintained its "balanced and neutral position," refusing to endorse any territorial changes achieved through force. Public Opinion is Divided but Shifting The war has polarized Central Asian societies along generational and ethnic lines. In Kazakhstan, surveys show roughly 27-32% of respondents still accept the Kremlin justifications for its invasion of Ukraine, while 24-28% view Russia as the aggressor. Critically, only 15% explicitly support Russia versus 20% backing Ukraine, with the majority remaining neutral. More telling is the growing anxiety about Russia’s intentions: 26% of Kazakhstanis now consider a Russian attack on their country a possibility. In Uzbekistan, state media control limits public polarization, but the historical memory of Russian colonization has reinforced the appreciation for independence. Prilepin's 2023 annexation comments sparked widespread patriotic indignation, while the government's firm rebuttal drew popular praise. Strategic Diversification Accelerates The war has catalyzed Central Asia's pivot toward multiple partnerships, exploiting Russia's distraction and resource constraints. China is already the region's largest economic partner. China has deepened its influence through the first China-Central Asia summit in 2023 and Xi Jinping's pledge that Beijing "categorically opposes" interference in Kazakhstan's internal affairs. Chinese investment in alternative corridors bypassing Russia has accelerated, while modest military cooperation provides security alternatives to Russian guarantees. Ankara has also leveraged its...