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Infrastructure Projects

Securing Central Asia’s Future: EBRD’s Regional Head on the Fight for Water Sustainability

Every fourth inhabitant of Central Asia, home to more than 83 million people, does not have regular access to safe drinking water. The region spans more than four million square kilometers, and over 15% of its territory is covered by the Karakum and Kyzylkum deserts, as well as waterless places such as the Ustyurt Plateau (similar in size to the United Kingdom), which stretches across Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. The extreme heat common to Central Asia in summer makes water a precious resource. To make matters worse, irresponsible human activity, particularly wasteful water use for irrigation, has led to one of the most devastating ecological catastrophes globally. The Aral Sea, where up to 60,000 tonnes of fish were caught annually only 30 years ago, has practically ceased to exist. Most of Central Asia’s freshwater intake relies on glacial melts affected by global warming. The World Resources Institute forecast in its 2023 Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas that an additional one billion people globally will live with extremely high water stress by 2050. This will disrupt economies and agricultural production. Most Central Asian countries will be severely affected. While the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) cannot reverse the global warming process or tackle its impacts alone, it can certainly contribute to climate change mitigation efforts, securing better water access, and promoting its rational use. There is frequently no water supply or water treatment infrastructure in rural areas of the regions where it invests. Most municipal water supply and treatment utilities across Central Asia have not seen much investment or refurbishment over the last 30 years. The EBRD has been working to address this issue, and many of its investment projects are already impacting people’s lives. [caption id="attachment_29070" align="aligncenter" width="1600"] Image: EBRD[/caption] In Kazakhstan, the Bank’s work with Vodnye Resoursy Marketing (VRM)/Shymkent water company, the country’s only privately owned municipal water utility, perfectly illustrates why the EBRD is such a strong advocate of private-sector involvement in the provision of municipal services. Over many years, we have enjoyed excellent cooperation with this company, which has translated into high-quality water supply services for more than 1.2 million residents of Shymkent. It has become a benchmark for the region for its effective and efficient operations. Thanks to VRM’s efforts, with 1.2 million residents, Shymkent became the first city in Kazakhstan to install a water meter for every consumer. User habits have changed: personal daily water consumption has decreased from 456 liters 27 years ago to 150 liters. The water savings achieved during this period will enable Shymkent to meet the needs of its population for another 20 years. The EBRD started working with VRM in 2009 and has financed five projects totaling €60 million. With the Bank’s financial assistance, VRM has introduced an automated network monitoring system, improved power supply at twelve pumping stations, constructed eleven electrical substations, and built a European Union standards-compliant biogas facility (the only one of its kind in Central Asia), which helps VRM to meet all of its thermal...

Organization of Turkic States

Turkey’s Turkic Gambit: Balancing Influence in Post-Soviet States

Despite its superpower ambitions, which have diminished somewhat since February 24, 2022, Moscow views Turkey’s growing geopolitical influence with increasing concern. The Organization of Turkic States (OTS), which includes several Central Asian republics, is perceived by the Kremlin as a rival to its regional blocs, such as the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). However, for Central Asian nations, the OTS is not a political or military alliance but rather a framework for economic, cultural, and humanitarian cooperation. The extent of Turkey’s influence remains limited within these parameters. A Historical Perspective Russia continues to interpret geopolitical dynamics through the lens of century-old concepts, particularly Pan-Slavism and Pan-Turkism, both of which emerged as nationalist movements against the Russian and Ottoman empires. Pan-Turkism gained traction in the Ottoman Empire but lost momentum following its adoption and subsequent rejection by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk. The ideology was later revived during the Cold War, when Turkey’s NATO membership positioned it as a force for destabilizing Soviet Central Asia, Azerbaijan, and Turkic regions within Russia, such as Tatarstan and Bashkortostan. Despite Turkish efforts, Pan-Turkic sentiment found limited success, influencing only Azerbaijan, which aligned closely with Turkey after losing the First Nagorno-Karabakh War. Azerbaijan formalized this relationship in the early 1990s with the doctrine of “Two Countries, One Nation.” Baku only began to see concrete benefits from its alliance with Ankara after winning the Second Karabakh War in 2020. The Organization of Turkic States: Reality vs. Rhetoric Although the first summit of Turkic states was held in 1992, the OTS’s precursor, the Turkic Council, was only founded in 2009. The agreement, signed in Nakhchivan, Azerbaijan, initially included Turkey, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan. Uzbekistan expressed interest in joining in 2018, and officially became a member in 2019, whilst Hungary (2018), Turkmenistan (2021), the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (2022), and the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) (2023) hold observer state status. Turkmenistan has frequently been rumored to be considering full membership. Turkey’s geopolitical aspirations in Central Asia have often clashed with the ambitions of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Uzbekistan delayed its membership in the Turkic Council until 2019 due to strained relations with Ankara which dated back to the mid-1990s. Turkey, the first country to recognize the independence of the Central Asian republics, expected to leverage its Cold War victory over the Soviet Union to expand its influence in the region. While Kazakhstan initially welcomed Turkish economic expansion and Pan-Turkic rhetoric, it became increasingly skeptical in the 2000s. Uzbekistan, however, was cautious from the outset and largely resisted Turkish influence. Kazakhstan’s shift in perspective coincided with Ankara’s increased push for deeper Turkic integration. Turkish-backed initiatives in Kazakhstan revealed clear expectations that Ankara would lead such a union, prompting Astana to resist. Kazakhstan, which balances ties with the West, China, and Russia, rejected the notion of falling under Turkish leadership. The Kazakh government neutralized Pan-Turkic voices by integrating key advocates into political positions, redirecting their efforts toward promoting Kazakh nationalism instead. Turkey’s Role in the...

Bilateral Relations

Guest Opinion: The View From China on Kyrgyzstan

The 9th Asian Winter Games will kick off in Harbin on February 7, 2025. According to the organizing committee, 1,275 athletes from 34 Asian countries and regions have registered to compete, making it the largest event in the event’s history. The record-high participation partly reflects the growing appeal of winter sports across Asia and showcases the continent’s diversity and unity. Among those attending the event is the delegation from Kyrgyzstan, which is sending around 50 athletes to compete in biathlon, alpine skiing, figure skating, ice hockey, and curling. As this edition of the Asian Winter Games is set to open, the spotlight is not just on the athletes from across the continent, but also on the broader regional ties the event symbolizes. Indeed, in a world where the level of geopolitical uncertainties is high, some partnerships stand the test of time. At the invitation of Chinese President Xi Jinping, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov will pay a state visit to China from February 4 to 7. Over the past three decades or so, China and Kyrgyzstan have navigated global challenges while steadily strengthening their ties. Through frequent high-level exchanges and growing cooperation across multiple sectors, the two nations have built a bond that’s only grown stronger over the past three decades. At the heart of this partnership are Chinese President Xi Jinping and Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov, whose meetings over the years have deepened mutual trust. Back in February 2022, Japarov visited China to attend the Beijing Winter Olympics opening ceremony and held talks with Xi. Later that year, in September, they met again at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit in Samarkand. In 2023, Japarov made a state visit to China and attended the China-Central Asia Summit. It was during this visit that both nations decided to elevate their ties to a comprehensive strategic partnership for a new era. Their most recent bilateral meeting took place in July 2024 during the SCO Summit, with Japarov's state visit to China now taking place from February 4 to 7. Economic Ties China has consistently been Kyrgyzstan's top trading partner - primary import-based - and biggest investor. The two nations continue to strengthen cooperation in energy, transportation, and agriculture, driving regional economic integration. Chinese enterprises in construction, oil refining, cement, and mining have been investing in Kyrgyzstan over the years, and their investments yield tangible results. Trade between China and Kyrgyzstan has been on an upward trajectory. From January to November 2024, bilateral trade reached $19.86 billion, an 11% increase year-on-year, showcasing a positive trend in economic cooperation. A long-anticipated project, the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan (CKU) railway, has finally moved from vision to reality. Once completed, this railway will serve as a crucial trade corridor, enhancing regional connectivity and providing a major boost to Kyrgyzstan’s economic development. Additionally, the partial opening of the Bedel Pass, increasing direct flights between Chinese and Kyrgyz cities, and improved cross-border transportation all contribute to smoother trade and travel between the two countries. Chinese-funded infrastructure projects, such as road network...

Afghanistan

Afghanistan as Part of Central Asia: Expectations, Reality, Challenges, and Threats

Afghanistan has increasingly been regarded in expert and journalistic circles as part of Central Asia, which is justifiable from a physical-geographical perspective. However, given current regional realities, it is still premature to classify the country as part of Central Asia in terms of being internationally recognized as such. The outcome of the 19th-century rivalry between the British and Russian Empires for influence in Central Asia, known as the "Great Game," not only established the modern southern borders of the region but also set Afghanistan and its northern neighbors on entirely different social and historical paths. The countries differ in value systems, ideologies, public consciousness, and, of course, economic development. At the same time, experts from the Russian Institute for Central Asian Studies note that "In the early 21st century, approaches to analyzing regional realities shifted towards geo-economics. The spatial dimension of Central Asia began to be seen as a zone for pipeline transit." This perspective is hard to argue against — Afghanistan’s current geopolitical interests and challenges are largely tied to the economic interests of countries at the regional level. This includes India, Iran, China, the UAE, Pakistan, Russia, Turkey, and the Central Asian states, for whom Afghanistan's prospects are evident. Chiefly, these prospects concern its transit potential as a territory connecting various parts of Asia. Four out of the six logistics corridors under the Asian Development Bank’s Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Program (CAREC) pass through Afghanistan into Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. Other relevant projects include the "China–Pakistan Economic Corridor" under the "One Belt One Road" initiative, the "Trans-Afghan Corridor," and the TAPI Gas Pipeline. However, Afghanistan's current situation, particularly given the stagnant Afghan-Pakistani conflict, casts doubt on the feasibility of these and other major projects involving Afghanistan. As previously stated by TCA, the future of these large-scale projects involving Central Asian countries, as well as regional stability, a fundamental condition for steady economic development, depends directly on whether an understanding is reached between these two nations. Thus, a geo-economic approach to redefining Central Asia’s new boundaries still requires a different reality. Meanwhile, within Central Asia itself, there is little enthusiasm for political rapprochement with Taliban-ruled Afghanistan. The primary focus is on trade/economic and humanitarian cooperation, with no broader agenda, particularly at a regional level. Tajikistan’s position is significant here, as its authorities continue to view the Taliban as a threat and tread cautiously in building relations with them. What Prevents Central Asian Countries from Accelerating Relations with Afghanistan? The answers lie not only in different developmental trajectories and scenarios. First and foremost, Afghanistan is still associated with "uncertainty" and numerous risks, particularly in terms of security. According to many assessments, the Afghan-Pakistani zone will, in the long term, remain a source of terrorist and religious-extremist threats to Central Asia. These conclusions are based on a retrospective analysis of escalating tensions, current processes in Afghanistan, and the geopolitical confrontation of global powers in the area. For example, the Soviet invasion in 1979 fostered the consolidation of the Afghan mujahideen,...

Start-ups

Bridging Borders: Louis Albertini on Central Asia’s Tech Growth, Startup Challenges, and Building Global Connections

Louis Albertini has been involved in technology and startups across the United States and Kazakhstan for a decade, working with Silicon Valley and venture capital-backed startups based in Kazakhstan, including ORBI and Farel. He is passionate about supporting founders in succeeding in the U.S. market and building connections between the U.S. and Kazakhstan. TCA spoke with Louis to gain insights from his experiences in the Kazakhstan market. TCA: Can you share your career journey in Kazakhstan and what motivated you to work in diverse roles like marketing, consulting, and startups? Louis: I arrived in Kazakhstan in July 2015 as a Princeton in Asia fellow and spent a year working in the President's Office at KIMEP University with Dr. Chan Young Bang. I served as his communications officer, writing official correspondence, liaising with different departments, and managing the day-to-day affairs of the office. After my PiA fellowship ended, I decided to stay in Almaty and start exploring the nascent startup scene. In 2016, I joined the founding team of a startup called ORBI, which developed 360-degree video recording glasses. This was the first Kazakhstani startup that attracted significant venture financing and was invited to interview at Y Combinator in 2016. We raised about $7 million for the company and secured $350 thousand in pre-orders, the largest ever for a Kazakh start-up. Back then, the YC batches were extremely small, and interviews were conducted in person at their historic but now-closed 320 Pioneer Way office in Mountain View. This was my first applied experience with Kazakhstan startups, and I've been involved ever since. TCA: What inspired you to create Redfern Partners, and how did you help address the challenges SMBs and tech companies face in Central Asia? Louis: Working at the American Chamber of Commerce gave me some insight into the market research landscape in Kazakhstan, primarily by listening to business leaders complain about available options. Besides the major consulting firms like McKinsey and BCG, which are more focused on quasi-state projects that need stamps of approval, the SMB space for high-quality independent research was largely empty. The Big 4 have variations of market research services, but their core specialty is audit and tax. Most local incumbents were formed in the early 1990s and use outdated methodologies that produce inaccurate or trivial insights. International research firms lack local coverage and rely on a loose patchwork of freelancers. Redfern was formed to offer high-quality, independent market research services to fill this void. We completed about twenty projects and continue to be a partner for the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) small business initiative. TCA: What common mistakes did you see SMBs in the region make, and how did you help them overcome these? Louis: The SMB space in Kazakhstan is hugely underserved and overlooked, offering the largest surface area regarding technology adoption. In the US, SMBs employ nearly half of the American workforce, representing 45% of America's GDP. In Kazakhstan, the market is mainly asymmetrical, with large players...

Energy

Kazakhstan Could Save America’s Energy Future

The energy crisis gripping Europe has made clear for all to see the limits of solar and wind power. Years of investment and unbridled ambition have not created renewable sources that can deliver the consistent, large-scale energy that modern economies need. Nuclear power has emerged as the only viable solution for achieving zero-emissions energy while maintaining reliability. Europe’s urgent need to reduce its dependency on Russian gas has made all that even clearer. Meanwhile, the United States faces its own energy challenges. Its nuclear industry urgently requires a secure and stable uranium supply; yet U.S. foreign policy has largely overlooked Kazakhstan, the world’s largest uranium producer. It gets worse. No sitting U.S. president has ever visited Kazakhstan, which produces over 40% of the world’s natural uranium. Russia and China have filled this diplomatic vacuum, embedding themselves deeply in Kazakhstan’s energy sector. The United States and Europe must act decisively to build stronger ties with Kazakhstan and Central Asia, if they are to achieve energy independence by securing their nuclear futures. Europe’s dependence on Russian natural gas has been its geopolitical Achilles’ heel for decades. Russia's illegal war of aggression against Ukraine, driving home the need to diversify energy sources, has further increased that vulnerability. Nuclear power offers Europe a path to energy independence. This hinges, however, on access to uranium, of which Europe imports 97% of its supply. Moreover, much of that uranium is enriched in Russia, creating a dependency analogous to that on Russian gas. That problem can be solved by deepening cooperation with Kazakhstan, the world’s largest uranium producer. Unfortunately, Europe’s engagement with Kazakhstan has been half-hearted at best; yet the country's reserves are essential for powering Europe’s nuclear plants. Strategic investments and partnerships are needed to unlock Kazakhstan’s role as a reliable uranium supplier to Europe, but logistical hurdles and a lack of political focus have so far stymied efforts to make that happen. Kazakhstan, the world's leading uranium producer, offers the United States a critical opportunity to secure its energy and national-security needs, yet Washington has ignored this and made little effort to deepen its ties with Kazakhstan. By contrast, China sources 60% of its uranium imports from Kazakhstan, supported by investments in mining and nuclear fuel facilities. Likewise, Russia has, through Rosatom, forged strong partnerships with Kazatomprom. These efforts give Beijing and Moscow significant leverage over global uranium markets. The U.S., however, has failed to foster the political and economic relationships necessary for long-term nuclear-energy security. Kazakhstan is a particularly glaring case in point. Over the past two decades, Kazakhstan has come to account for nearly half of global uranium production, giving it a key position in the global uranium supply chain. Neighboring Uzbekistan, the fifth-largest producer, adds another 6%, and Mongolia also has significant undeveloped reserves of future potential. Yet Kazakhstan remains heavily dependent on Russian infrastructure for uranium transport and enrichment. Until the late 2024 signature of an agreement to supply nearly half of its annual uranium ore production to China through the...