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Natural Gas

Turkmenistan Gas Exports: Could Tajikistan Become a New Market?

Turkmenistan has the world’s fourth-largest natural gas reserves, but most of its gas exports still go to China. Ashgabat has spent years seeking other markets and is again looking to potential customers elsewhere in Central Asia. Uzbekistan already buys Turkmen gas, while Tajikistan remains a potential customer. The prospect drew renewed attention after Tajik Foreign Minister Sirojiddin Muhriddin visited Turkmenistan on August 20–21. During meetings with President Serdar Berdimuhamedov and Foreign Minister Rashid Meredov, the two sides discussed trade, transport, energy, and other areas of cooperation. The published accounts of the talks, however, made no mention of new gas supplies. The Idea Dates Back to 2023 At an August 2023 summit in Ashgabat, the presidents of Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan agreed to cooperate on supplies of natural gas, oil, petroleum products, and electricity. They instructed their energy ministries to discuss joint projects. After the summit, Meredov identified Uzbekistan and Tajikistan as priority markets in the region. At the time, Turkmenistan said it planned to increase gas production by at least 60 billion cubic meters in the coming years, citing further development of Galkynysh, one of the world’s largest gas fields. State-owned Turkmengaz and UzGasTrade subsequently agreed on annual supplies of up to 2 billion cubic meters under a short-term contract and discussed a longer-term arrangement. The contract came as Uzbekistan became a net importer after decades as a gas exporter, with domestic production declining and demand rising. Output fell further in 2025 and the first half of 2026. Any Turkmen gas bound for Tajikistan would have to pass through Uzbekistan because the two countries do not share a border. Tajikistan already imported around 267 million cubic meters of Uzbek gas in 2024, but Turkmen supplies would require a separate commercial arrangement. No prices, volumes, or timetable have been announced, leaving the plan on paper. A Small Market, but a Short Route Tajikistan cannot replace China as a market for Turkmen gas. Hydropower provides almost all of its electricity, and its potential demand for imported gas is far smaller than China’s. In February, Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, Turkmenistan’s former president and current chairman of the Halk Maslahaty, described diversifying gas exports as one of the country’s main priorities. Turkmenistan’s landlocked position leaves it dependent on where its pipelines lead. The main route runs east through Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, carrying around 30 billion cubic meters of gas to China each year via the Central Asia–China pipeline. That reliance may deepen after China National Petroleum Corporation reached an agreement with Turkmenistan in April to develop the fourth phase of Galkynysh. The $5.1 billion project is expected to add 10 billion cubic meters of annual gas-processing capacity. Bigger Alternatives Are Moving Slowly The best-known alternative is the Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India (TAPI) gas pipeline. Although construction began on its Afghan section in 2024 after decades of discussion, the pipeline remains far from delivering gas to Pakistan or India. By August 2026, Afghan authorities said 116 kilometers had been laid. Afghanistan’s role could expand from transit country to gas buyer....

Fuel Shortages

Kazakh Refinery Plans Fuel Exports to Russia Amid Petrol Shortages

A small refinery in western Kazakhstan is preparing to process Russian crude and send most of the resulting petrol and diesel back to Russia as Moscow struggles with fuel shortages. The arrangement was confirmed on August 25, the same day that separate incidents occurred at two of Kazakhstan’s three major refineries. On August 19, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that, given the situation on the fuel market, the government was “keeping its finger on the pulse” and monitoring supplies daily with companies and regional authorities. According to Novak, Russia had already imposed export restrictions and begun importing petroleum products. Several refineries were also expected to return from repairs, increasing domestic supplies. Russia’s Fuel Shortage The pressure on Russia’s fuel market is illustrated by data published by the industry portal InfoTEK. According to its August 24 snapshot, AI-95 petrol, the widely used 95-octane grade, was available at only 5,620 of Russia’s 26,098 operating filling stations, or 22%. Even in Moscow, it could be found at 161 of 786 operating stations, about 20%. Russia has also temporarily relaxed restrictions on lower environmental grades of fuel, including Euro 4, Euro 3 and Euro 2, known in the Russian classification as K4, K3 and K2. Since 2016, only fuel meeting at least the Euro 5 standard had generally been permitted. Russian economist Boris Grozovsky estimates that, given the refining capacity knocked out by Ukrainian strikes and the number of plants undergoing repairs, Russia is currently short of roughly one-third of the petrol needed at peak demand. August is traditionally a high-demand month because of summer travel and agricultural work. “If it were November now, the situation would be a little easier for the Russian government. Russia is trying to bring in petrol from India, Morocco, Turkey, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, but imports also have limitations. The petrol brought in from India turned out to be too expensive,” Grozovsky said. Kazakh Refinery Steps In Speaking at a government briefing on August 25, Kazakhstan’s Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov said that the small Condensat refinery in Aksai, West Kazakhstan Region, would process Russian crude, with around 70% of the petrol and diesel it produces sent to Russia. Up to 30% will remain on the Kazakh market, while the refinery also retains the right to export products outside the Eurasian Economic Union. “Under the agreement we currently have, up to 30% of the petroleum products in demand, petrol and diesel, will remain in Kazakhstan, while the rest will be shipped to the Russian Federation,” the minister told reporters. Akkenzhenov said the arrangement reflected Condensat’s location close to the Russian border. The refinery is not connected by pipeline to either country’s main oil network, meaning both crude deliveries and fuel exports depend on rail capacity. Akkenzhenov also stressed that the refinery’s owner is not under sanctions and said the Energy Ministry did not see sanctions risks for the project. He said the arrangement would also bring investment and preserve jobs at a refinery that has struggled financially. Condensat’s Financial Troubles Condensat was established in...

Artificial Intelligence

Kyrgyzstan’s NineNineSix Takes On Global AI Voice Market

In February, Kani TTS 2, a text-to-speech (TTS) model developed by Kyrgyzstani startup NineNineSix, ranked among Hugging Face’s top three trending TTS models, according to Kyrgyzstan’s High Technology Park. Hugging Face is sometimes described as the “GitHub for AI.” At $5 per million characters, NineNineSix’s listed price is lower than several paid TTS offerings from ElevenLabs and OpenAI, while Google’s range includes both cheaper and more expensive models. The company illustrates how rapid advances in AI are creating opportunities for entrepreneurs from Central Asia. NineNineSix, whose name refers to the Kyrgyz Republic’s international calling code, +996, grew out of a problem its founders encountered when using third-party pre-trained models at their previous startup. Using its own data, the team fine-tuned those models but remained dissatisfied with the results. Those models sounded robotic and were too resource-intensive and slow, creating a bottleneck. The team concluded that building its own model was the only way to achieve the quality it needed. [caption id="attachment_54711" align="aligncenter" width="1024"] Founders Ulan Abdurazakov, Nursultan Bakashov and Denis Pavlov[/caption] Not the First Try NineNineSix co-founder Nursultan Bakashov tells The Times of Central Asia: “Building our own models felt like the natural next chapter of the story we’d already started writing. In the age of AI, the only real choice is to do AI.” Bakashov founded the company in 2025 with Ulan Abdurazakov and Denis Pavlov. He and Abdurazakov had previously worked together, co-founding Makers Bootcamp with a third partner in 2019 to train people for careers in technology. Three years later, they left Makers Bootcamp to focus on AI. They became active in the Kyrgyz Republic’s AI community, organizing events and training for several years. The community now has more than 1,800 members. Their work there led to The Cramer Project, which they launched with Timur Turatali, formerly of EY and Citibank, and Pavlov, who had moved from Russia to the Kyrgyz Republic. The company developed AkylAI, which it describes as Kyrgyzstan’s first AI-powered smart speaker. The name refers to Akylai, a common female name in Kyrgyz; the element “ai” means “moon” and often appears in Kyrgyz names. In October 2023, AkylAI was named a winner in the Unicorn from KG program, run by the High Technology Park of the Kyrgyz Republic. It also took part in Draper University’s Hero Training incubation program in Silicon Valley. The following year, AkylAI was selected for the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development’s first Star Venture cohort in the Kyrgyz Republic. It was also presented at KIT Forum 2024, Bishkek’s flagship annual technology event. That year, The Cramer Project also tested CorePod, a smart speaker designed to support mental health and sleep. CorePod was intended as a global product, beginning with the United States market. The team says the company became the first Kyrgyzstani startup admitted to the LAUNCH incubator in May 2024. CorePod was later pitched to Jason Calacanis, a Silicon Valley angel investor, and featured on his This Week in Startups podcast. An upgraded version of AkylAI was presented...

TCA Interviews JICA

JICA’s Sota Tosaka on Afghanistan’s Economic Ties With Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan is deepening trade and transport ties with Afghanistan despite continuing political and humanitarian concerns, drawing its southern neighbor closer to Central Asian markets. In an interview with The Times of Central Asia, Sota Tosaka, chief representative of the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) for Afghanistan, described that engagement as part of a practical regional approach. Uzbekistan and other Central Asian countries, he said, are seeking areas where economic cooperation can continue. Tosaka, who previously worked at JICA headquarters overseeing Central Asia and the Caucasus, has also visited Uzbekistan several times, including Termez. He said his current position gives him a different perspective on the relationship between Afghanistan and its northern neighbors. “I previously visited Termez in 2019 when I was overseeing the Central Asia and Caucasus region at JICA headquarters,” Tosaka told The Times of Central Asia. “At that time, the free trade zone aimed at facilitating business with Afghanistan did not exist yet. Returning to Termez recently, I was genuinely surprised to see how much progress has been made and how actively various cross-border initiatives are now being explored and implemented through Termez to connect Uzbekistan and Afghanistan.” Since taking charge of JICA’s Afghanistan operations, his work has focused on supporting Afghan people through international organizations. Tosaka noted that JICA’s primary focus remains on addressing the immediate needs of the Afghan population. To ensure that assistance directly reaches local communities and vulnerable groups, the agency coordinates its support through United Nations agencies and international partners. “Our priority is to deliver tangible support directly to the people of Afghanistan,” he said. “Working alongside UN partners allows us to effectively implement humanitarian activities that address daily challenges on the ground.” “Although the geopolitical environment surrounding Afghanistan has shifted significantly, Central Asian nations are actively pursuing opportunities to expand economic ties from their respective strategic viewpoints,” Tosaka continued. “Recognizing the importance of regional stability, countries like Uzbekistan are taking pragmatic steps to foster trade and commercial cooperation that serve mutual interests.” In particular, Uzbekistan’s proactive approach to encouraging business initiatives reflects a broader regional trend aimed at maintaining essential economic linkages. For Uzbekistan, the economic relationship has already become significant. Deputy Prime Minister Jamshid Khodjaev said in February that bilateral trade between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan has increased 2.5 times over the past five years, from $653 million in 2021 to $1.7 billion in 2025. The two countries have set a goal of raising annual trade to $5 billion. Tosaka noted that this economic orientation may become increasingly crucial given the diplomatic and logistical constraints Afghanistan faces on its eastern and western borders. “Complex relations with Pakistan and the geopolitical situation involving Iran present significant challenges for Afghanistan,” he explained. “Consequently, deepening economic ties with its northern neighbors becomes a vital strategic alternative. In this context, Central Asian nations serve as indispensable partners, creating mutually beneficial opportunities for sustainable regional development.” In parallel with these macro-economic trends, JICA is dedicated to strengthening grassroots economic resilience by empowering Afghan entrepreneurs, particularly women, in...

Aral Sea

Aral Sea Restoration Could Prevent 605 Million Tons of CO2 Emissions

The drying of the Aral Sea has created another environmental problem: according to a study, exposed lakebed sediments released about 748 million tons of CO2 into the atmosphere between 1960 and 2022. Organic carbon remains stored in the sediments, and restoring part of the water cover could prevent the release of another 605 million tons of CO2. This gives efforts to restore the Aral Sea region a new climate dimension. The study, conducted by an international team of researchers led by scientists from Spain’s Centre for Advanced Studies of Blanes (CEAB-CSIC), was published in Science on July 16. The findings add another consideration to restoration efforts already underway across the region, from refilling part of the sea in Kazakhstan to planting saxaul and rehabilitating degraded land in Uzbekistan. The Aral Sea’s Carbon Legacy When the Aral Sea was still a fully-fledged body of water, plants and algae absorbed carbon dioxide, while some organic matter settled on the lakebed. As the water retreated, those sediments were exposed to the air, organic matter began to decompose, and the stored carbon started returning to the atmosphere as CO2. At the same time, winds carry salt and dust from the newly formed Aralkum Desert, spreading the consequences of the sea’s disappearance far beyond its former shoreline. In 2022, researchers conducted an expedition to the dried Aral Sea bed, collecting sediment samples and measuring how much CO2 was being released. Combined with satellite data, this allowed them to estimate carbon losses as the sea retreated. According to the researchers’ calculations, exposed sediments lost about 204 million tons of carbon between 1960 and 2022, equivalent to roughly 748 million tons of CO2. New vegetation growing on the dried lakebed has offset less than 1% of those emissions. A significant amount of organic carbon remains in the sediments. The researchers estimate that restoring water cover could prevent the release of another 605 million tons of CO2. The authors also considered the economics of such an effort. Using 2024 voluntary carbon market prices for land-use and forestry projects as a benchmark, they estimate that the avoided emissions could potentially be worth $3.6 billion to $18 billion in carbon credits. That money could theoretically become one source of funding for ecosystem restoration. Researchers estimate that about $9.7 billion in water-management improvements could increase inflows enough to restore roughly half of the area covered by the Aral Sea in 1960, while potentially generating about 323 million tons of CO2-equivalent carbon credits. Restoring the Entire Aral Sea Is No Longer the Goal Under current conditions, fully restoring the sea is widely considered unrealistic. The central issue is water. The Amu Darya and Syr Darya flow through several Central Asian countries. Significantly increasing the amount of water reaching the Aral Sea would be impossible without basin-wide agreements, irrigation modernization, and reductions in water losses. This is why restoration of the Aral Sea remains a regional issue rather than solely an Uzbek or Kazakh one. Central Asian countries coordinate part of this work...

U.S.-Kazakhstan Relations

Bipartisan U.S. Congressional Visit Highlights Expanding Partnership with Kazakhstan

A bipartisan six-member delegation from the U.S. House of Representatives met with President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in Astana on August 25, two days after Kazakhstan elected the first members of its new unicameral Kurultai. Tokayev called the timing symbolic and proposed closer dialogue between Congress and the new legislature. The delegation was led by House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith and included Greg Murphy, Carol Miller, Ronny Jackson, Wesley Bell, and Ed Case. Smith said President Donald Trump had called him at 2 a.m., several hours before the meeting. Trump sent his regards, expressed appreciation for his relationship with Tokayev, and said he looked forward to the Kazakh president’s visit to Miami for the G20 summit. Smith said one purpose of the visit was to explore opportunities to expand economic ties and pursue a substantive bilateral dialogue. The visit reinforced Congress’s role in a relationship that has recently gained momentum at the presidential level. It also showed the breadth of the emerging agenda, from trade and investment to energy security, strategic supply chains, nonproliferation, and regional stability. A Delegation With Trade and Security Reach The delegation’s committee assignments closely matched that agenda. Smith, Murphy, and Miller serve on the Ways and Means Committee, which oversees trade and tariff legislation. Jackson serves on the Armed Services, Foreign Affairs, Intelligence, and Agriculture committees. Bell serves on the Armed Services, Foreign Affairs, and Oversight and Government Reform committees. Case sits on the Appropriations Committee and its Defense and Homeland Security subcommittees. That mix places delegation members on committees with jurisdiction over many of the issues now shaping the bilateral relationship. Congress can advance cooperation through trade legislation, appropriations, oversight, and support for American companies entering or expanding in Kazakhstan. Smith’s committee has jurisdiction over H.R. 1024, the bipartisan U.S.-Kazakhstan Trade Modernization Act, which would authorize the president to end the application of the Cold War-era Jackson-Vanik restrictions and extend permanent normal trade relations to Kazakhstan. Miller was among the bill’s original co-sponsors, although the issue was not mentioned in the public account of the meeting. Bipartisan congressional engagement could help translate recent presidential momentum into more durable institutional ties. Kazakhstan Has Made the U.S. Relationship a Priority From the Kazakh side, Tokayev has treated closer ties with Washington as a presidential priority. During his November 2025 visit to Washington, the two leaders welcomed commercial agreements worth more than $17 billion. Trump reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to the Enhanced Strategic Partnership, while the two presidents identified new areas for cooperation. The August 25 meeting also highlighted Kazakhstan’s support for the Abraham Accords and the Board of Peace, as well as the countries’ longstanding work on nuclear security and nonproliferation. Trade, investment, advanced technology, science, education, and culture were also discussed. Tokayev’s proposal for closer dialogue between Congress and the Kurultai would strengthen the parliamentary channel alongside the relationship’s presidential and executive-level diplomacy. In January, Tokayev appointed veteran diplomat Erzhan Kazykhan as his representative for negotiations with the United States on priority bilateral issues....