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Nuclear Power

Powering the Future: Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan Race to Tackle Energy Crises with Nuclear Plans

Kazakhstan has officially designated the site for its first nuclear power plant (NPP), while Uzbekistan has also identified a location and announced plans to establish an international consortium. Despite severe power shortages in densely populated regions, concrete timelines for construction remain unclear. Kazakhstan Finalizes NPP Site Selection On February 25, Kazakhstan formally approved the construction site for its first NPP. A decree signed by Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov designated the Zhambyl district in the Almaty region as the site for the facility. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev reiterated in January 2025 that Kazakhstan would likely require multiple nuclear power plants, and urged the government to accelerate the construction process. International Consortium Considered for Construction Kazakhstan has yet to finalize its choice of technology and contractor. In 2024, Tokayev stated that multiple foreign companies should collaborate on the project through an international consortium. Tokayev emphasized the need for cutting-edge technology from global players. Several companies and technologies are currently under consideration, including: CNNC (China) - HPR-1000 reactor Rosatom (Russia) - VVER-1200 reactor KHNP (South Korea) - APR-1000, APR-1400 reactors EDF (France) - EPR1200 reactor. Political analyst Gaziz Abishev noted that the selection of locations and contractors reflects Kazakhstan’s multi-vector foreign policy. Abishev suggested that Kazakhstan could ultimately build three NPPs, potentially awarding contracts to Rosatom, a Chinese-French consortium, and a South Korean firm. While Rosatom remains the frontrunner, only preliminary agreements with Russia have been reported so far. Urgency Amidst a Growing Energy Deficit Kazakhstan faces an urgent need to begin NPP construction due to its increasing electricity shortfall. In 2024, electricity consumption reached 120.6 billion kWh, while production stood at 118.3 billion kWh, resulting in a 2.4 billion kWh deficit. By 2025, the deficit is projected to rise to 3.3 billion kWh. The situation is particularly dire in southern Kazakhstan, where demand far exceeds supply. The region consumes 27.7 billion kWh but produces only 15.3 billion kWh, creating a 12.4 billion kWh deficit. As a result, Kazakhstan is heavily reliant on Russian electricity imports. Aging infrastructure exacerbates the crisis. In the winters of 2023-2024, power plant failures left residents in the towns of Ridder and Ekibastuz without heat during extreme subzero temperatures. The government reports that 66% of CHPP equipment is worn out, with five major plants, in Uralsk, Stepnogorsk, Taraz, Kyzylorda, and Kentau, operating with over 80% wear and tear. The average age of CHPPs in Kazakhstan is 61 years, with 76% of plants exceeding 50 years of operation. Experts argue that Kazakhstan cannot achieve energy independence without nuclear power. The energy deficit will continue to grow, particularly in Almaty, the country’s largest city, which is at risk of blackouts and rolling outages. Uzbekistan Moves Forward with Its First NPP Uzbekistan is also advancing its nuclear energy plans. The first NPP will be built in the Jizzakh region, approximately 1,000 km from Kazakhstan’s planned plant. In May 2024, Uzatom signed a contract with Atomstroyexport, a division of Rosatom, for the construction of a 330 MW low-capacity nuclear plant consisting of six...

PACE

Kazakh Activists Slam PACE Member’s Allegations

Kazakh civil activists have strongly criticized a written declaration signed by 20 of the 306 members of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE), labeling it a “defamatory document.” Their response, representing various non-governmental organizations and public associations across Kazakhstan, accuses PACE signatories of bias, double standards, and a lack of objectivity in its assessment of human rights and democratic practices in the country. The contentious declaration, published on the PACE website on February 5, 2025, alleges that Kazakhstan has imprisoned eight political dissidents and is repressing another five individuals living abroad. However, Kazakh civil society representatives argue that these claims are misleading and politically motivated. A key point of contention is the alleged connection between the individuals named in the declaration and Mukhtar Ablyazov, a notorious figure accused of embezzling $8-10 billion during his tenure as chairman of BTA Bank. Ablyazov has been the subject of multiple legal judgments in the UK and US, with liabilities exceeding $5 billion, including two jury trial verdicts in the Southern District of New York in 2022 and 2024 with regard to the laundering of the stolen funds. The activists assert that the individuals referenced in the PACE declaration are not political prisoners but rather individuals convicted of ordinary criminal offenses. In their February 24 response, the Kazakh civil society representatives expressed concern over what they perceive as an attempt by certain PACE members to “militarize” Europe’s democratic agenda against Kazakhstan. “We are deeply concerned about how individual PACE representatives are attempting to ‘militarize’ Europe’s democratic agenda in relation to Kazakhstan,” the statement reads. “We have every reason to believe that the authority of PACE is being actively used by criminal elements to advance their interests - among whom we include Mukhtar Ablyazov and his supporters.” While the PACE declaration called for an investigation into Kazakhstan, the civil activists countered by urging European law enforcement agencies to investigate potential abuses of office by PACE representatives. They accused PACE of turning a blind eye to systemic corruption, such as the “Qatargate” scandal, and questioned whether connections between those implicated in “Qatargate” and individuals shaping PACE’s stance on Kazakhstan are fueling a biased agenda. [caption id="attachment_29119" align="aligncenter" width="683"] According to its website, the National Endowment for Prosperity is an "organization dedicated to the protection of human rights, strengthening democracy and developing civil society, implementing a wide range of projects and initiatives in these areas."[/caption] The rebuttal, titled “Response of representatives of civil society of Kazakhstan to the declaration of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe,” was signed by 20 prominent figures from Kazakh civil society. These include Marlen Imangaliyev from the "Veterans of military operations who took part in the settlement of the interethnic conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh in the Caucasus region" public association; Usen Suleimen and Marat Sarsembayev from the “National Endowment for Prosperity”; Salamat Kabidayev from the "Eurasian Peace and Accord" institution; and Dauyl Togzhan from the "Alash Ulandary" public foundation. The response underscores the activists’ belief that the actions...

Geopolitics

A Central Asian Perspective: Look Out for Ourselves as World Shifts

Kazakhstan must focus on its own interests at a time of uncertainty over the Trump administration’s global relations and alliances as well as pending appointments to key U.S. diplomatic posts for Central Asia, according to the head of a non-governmental group based in Almaty. The comments by Karla Jamankulova, head of the free speech group Adil Soz, reflect a wider sense of vigilance in Central Asia. The region’s governments are monitoring and engaging Washington as the new U.S. administration moves to implement major, even stunning policy shifts, including warnings of tariffs on key trading partners, disruption of the longstanding U.S.-Europe alliance and a possible rapprochement with Russia after years of hostility. It’s a critical time for Central Asian states that have generally sought to balance their relationships with big powers since independence from the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, rather than side with any one faction at the expense of another. The war in Ukraine put that approach to the test as those countries did not express support for Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022 but maintained vital trade ties with it even as the West tried to isolate Moscow with economic sanctions. President Donald Trump has significantly shifted U.S. priorities, prompting other nations to reassess their own geopolitical strategies. “Given the current uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Russia economic relations and the increasingly anti-China stance, it is now crucial to understand the contours of U.S.-Kazakhstan relations moving forward,” Jamankulova said on Facebook on Tuesday. Her NGO has received funding for projects from the U.S. Embassy in the past, though such support appears to have ended since the Trump administration announced a freeze on nearly all foreign aid and took steps to dismantle the U.S. Agency for International Development. Jamankulova didn’t comment on a debate within Kazakhstan about whether such foreign funding benefits civil society, or is a tool of interference by foreign governments, or both. Nor did she talk about whether there might be differing views within Kazakhstan about national interests. There are positive signs for Kazakhstan, specifically indications that the Trump administration would support bipartisan efforts to scrap the Jackson-Vanik amendment, a 50-year-old law that imposes some restrictions on trade with several countries in Central Asia. During his confirmation hearings for the post of secretary of state in January, U.S. Senator Marco Rubio described the amendment as “a relic of an era that’s passed.” As secretary of state, Rubio spoke by telephone on Feb. 21 to Foreign Minister Bakhtiyor Saidov of Uzbekistan about increasing trade and expanding the strategic partnership between the two countries, according to an Uzbek readout. The U.S. State Department made similar comments. In her Facebook post, Jamankulova said she was unaware of any similar discussions involving Foreign Minister Murat Nurtleu of Kazakhstan, though acknowledged that doesn’t necessarily mean there is a shift in U.S. priorities. “The Atlantic Council has long advocated for Trump to be the first U.S. president to visit Central Asia. Kazakhstan appears to be on the radar. At the last C5+1 summit in 2023,...

Eduards Stiprais Appointed New EU Special Representative for Central Asia

The Council of the European Union has appointed Eduards Stiprais as the new EU Special Representative for Central Asia. Stiprais will assume his duties on March 1, 2025, with an initial two-year mandate, succeeding Terhi Hakala. According to the European Council, Stiprais will be responsible for promoting EU-Central Asia relations based on shared values, strengthening regional stability and cooperation, and supporting democracy, the rule of law, good governance, and human rights. A seasoned Latvian diplomat, Stiprais previously served as Latvia’s Permanent Representative to the EU and as Deputy State Secretary - Political Director at the Latvian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. From 2016 to 2020, he was Head of the EU Delegation to Uzbekistan and has also served as Latvia’s ambassador to the United Kingdom and France. The European Council recently announced that the first-ever EU-Central Asia summit will be held in Uzbekistan on April 3-4. The summit will be attended by European Council President António Costa, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and the presidents of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. As EU-Central Asia relations gain strategic significance, the upcoming summit presents a key opportunity for the EU to deepen its engagement in the region. The European Council stated that discussions will focus on enhancing cooperation in transport and digital connectivity, critical raw materials, economic and security collaboration, and energy transition. The EU adopted a new Strategy on Central Asia in 2019. The EU remains Central Asia’s second-largest trading partner and the leading investor, accounting for over 40% of foreign investment in the region.

Infrastructure Projects

Securing Central Asia’s Future: EBRD’s Regional Head on the Fight for Water Sustainability

Every fourth inhabitant of Central Asia, home to more than 83 million people, does not have regular access to safe drinking water. The region spans more than four million square kilometers, and over 15% of its territory is covered by the Karakum and Kyzylkum deserts, as well as waterless places such as the Ustyurt Plateau (similar in size to the United Kingdom), which stretches across Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. The extreme heat common to Central Asia in summer makes water a precious resource. To make matters worse, irresponsible human activity, particularly wasteful water use for irrigation, has led to one of the most devastating ecological catastrophes globally. The Aral Sea, where up to 60,000 tonnes of fish were caught annually only 30 years ago, has practically ceased to exist. Most of Central Asia’s freshwater intake relies on glacial melts affected by global warming. The World Resources Institute forecast in its 2023 Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas that an additional one billion people globally will live with extremely high water stress by 2050. This will disrupt economies and agricultural production. Most Central Asian countries will be severely affected. While the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) cannot reverse the global warming process or tackle its impacts alone, it can certainly contribute to climate change mitigation efforts, securing better water access, and promoting its rational use. There is frequently no water supply or water treatment infrastructure in rural areas of the regions where it invests. Most municipal water supply and treatment utilities across Central Asia have not seen much investment or refurbishment over the last 30 years. The EBRD has been working to address this issue, and many of its investment projects are already impacting people’s lives. [caption id="attachment_29070" align="aligncenter" width="1600"] Image: EBRD[/caption] In Kazakhstan, the Bank’s work with Vodnye Resoursy Marketing (VRM)/Shymkent water company, the country’s only privately owned municipal water utility, perfectly illustrates why the EBRD is such a strong advocate of private-sector involvement in the provision of municipal services. Over many years, we have enjoyed excellent cooperation with this company, which has translated into high-quality water supply services for more than 1.2 million residents of Shymkent. It has become a benchmark for the region for its effective and efficient operations. Thanks to VRM’s efforts, with 1.2 million residents, Shymkent became the first city in Kazakhstan to install a water meter for every consumer. User habits have changed: personal daily water consumption has decreased from 456 liters 27 years ago to 150 liters. The water savings achieved during this period will enable Shymkent to meet the needs of its population for another 20 years. The EBRD started working with VRM in 2009 and has financed five projects totaling €60 million. With the Bank’s financial assistance, VRM has introduced an automated network monitoring system, improved power supply at twelve pumping stations, constructed eleven electrical substations, and built a European Union standards-compliant biogas facility (the only one of its kind in Central Asia), which helps VRM to meet all of its thermal...

Disinformation

Kazakh Ex-Security Chief’s Wild Trump KGB Recruitment Story Gains Media Traction

A recent Facebook post by Major General Alnur Musayev, the former head of Kazakhstan’s National Security Committee (KNB), has drawn widespread attention after he claimed that the KGB recruited U.S. President Donald Trump in 1986 under the codename "Krasnov" (a Russian family name, derived from the word "krasniy," an adjective meaning "red"). The post apparently referenced Trump’s hair color in assigning him the pseudonym. Given Musayev’s checkered background, in Kazakhstan, the post was largely taken as satire - though it remains unclear whether it was meant as such. However, the claim was taken literally by several media outlets, particularly in Ukraine, where journalists and commentators circulated the story as fact. As a result, the post evolved into a larger media narrative. Falsehoods in Musayev’s Account Musayev’s version of events contains several factual inaccuracies that contradict both his own professional history and the operational structure of the KGB. Musayev began his post with the statement: "In 1987, I served in the 6th Directorate of the USSR KGB in Moscow." However, official records indicate that between 1986 and 1989, Musayev was assigned to the USSR Ministry of Internal Affairs, where he held senior positions in its 8th Main Directorate, overseeing Soviet law enforcement. He had no known connection to the 6th Directorate of the KGB. Musayev further stated: "The most important area of work of the 6th Directorate was the recruitment of businessmen from capitalist countries." This is also inaccurate. The 6th Directorate of the KGB, formed in 1982 from the former Directorate P of the 2nd Main Directorate, was not involved in foreign recruitment. Its primary responsibilities were: Industrial espionage - gathering intelligence on Western technology and economic developments, and Counterintelligence within the Soviet economy - protecting industrial assets from foreign espionage. The recruitment of foreign nationals, including businessmen, fell under the jurisdiction of the First Main Directorate (FMD) of the KGB, not the 6th Directorate. Finally, Musayev concluded with his most sensational assertion: "In that year, our Directorate recruited a 40-year-old businessman from the United States, Donald Trump, under the pseudonym Krasnov." While the pseudonym appears to be a play on Trump’s hair color, Musayev made no effort to clarify that his story was fabricated, allowing it to be widely circulated as a legitimate claim. Analysis from Kazakh Experts Kazakh political analyst Daniyar Ashimbayev dismissed Musayev’s statement as baseless, writing on his Telegram channel: "The global circus show continues. The former KNB (National Security Committee of the Republic of Kazakhstan) chairman, who is wanted for treason and enjoys portraying himself as a man with ‘inside knowledge,’ now claims that Donald Trump was recruited by the KGB’s 6th Directorate." Ashimbayev also pointed out that Musayev had failed to specify whether he personally recruited Trump, or if it was done by someone else. More importantly, he reaffirmed that the 6th Directorate was never responsible for recruiting foreigners. Musayev has a history of controversial intelligence claims. In the late 1990s, while serving as head of the KNB, he accused then-Kazakh Prime Minister Akezhan Kazhegeldin...