Kazakhstan Local Politics - The Times Of Central Asia

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Referendum

Cost of Holding Referendum on Kazakhstan’s New Constitution Estimated at $42 Million

The cost of holding a national referendum on the adoption of Kazakhstan’s new Constitution is preliminarily estimated at 20.8 billion tenge (KZT), or approximately $42 million at the current exchange rate. The figure was announced at a press conference by Mikhail Bortnik, a member of Kazakhstan’s Central Election Commission. According to Bortnik, the estimate is currently under review by the Ministry of Finance, and the final amount will be approved at a later stage. These expenses are not included in the approved republican budget for 2026; funding is expected to be allocated from the government reserve. Approximately 75% of the total sum is projected to be spent on remuneration for members of precinct election commissions involved in organizing and conducting the vote. Another CEC representative, Azamat Aimanakumov, stated that 12,416,759 citizens will be eligible to participate in the referendum. A total of 10,413 polling stations will be opened. Of these, 9,779 will be located at voters’ places of registration, while 634 will operate at temporary places of residence, including 82 polling stations abroad in 64 countries. Polling station commissions are scheduled to receive voter lists on February 22. Citizens will be notified of the time and place of voting between February 27 and March 4. Ballots are to be delivered to polling stations between March 12 and 14. March 14 has been designated a day of silence, during which campaigning is prohibited. Voting is scheduled for March 15, 2026. CEC Deputy Chairman Mukhtar Erman said that invitations to observe the referendum have been sent to relevant organizations in more than 30 countries, including European and American states, leading Asian countries, and members of the Commonwealth of Independent States. Separate invitations to international organizations will be issued by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Accreditation of foreign observers will close on March 9. The draft of the new Constitution has been published on the website of the Constitutional Court of Kazakhstan. Under Article 94 of the draft, if approved in the referendum, the new Basic Law will enter into force on July 1, 2026, and the current Constitution will cease to have effect on the same date. The Times of Central Asia previously reported that work on the draft Constitution was being conducted on an accelerated timetable, after President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev announced a package of political reforms, including a proposal to transition to a unicameral parliament.

Constitution

Opinion: Kazakhstan’s Constitutional Referendum – Strategic Reset or Institutional Consolidation?

Kazakhstan will hold a nationwide referendum on March 15 to adopt an entirely new constitution – an initiative President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev describes as a decisive break from the country’s super-presidential legacy. The draft, published on February 12 after deliberations by a Constitutional Commission, proposes far-reaching institutional reforms. Among the most notable changes are the replacement of the bicameral parliament with a unicameral body known as the Kurultai; the reinstatement of a vice presidency; and the constitutionalization of commitments to digital transformation, economic modernization, and strengthened sovereignty. The government presents the reform as a necessary modernization of the state in response to global turbulence. Yet the scope and timing of the proposal indicate that the referendum is as much about strategic recalibration as it is about institutional redesign. The Accelerated Timeline The speed of the process has drawn considerable attention. In September 2025, Tokayev advised against rushing constitutional reform and suggested that 2027 would allow sufficient time for public consultation. However, by February 2026, the referendum had been scheduled for mid-March. This abrupt shift suggests a deliberate political calculation rather than simple administrative urgency. One factor under discussion is the legal effect of adopting a wholly new constitution. While reforms in 2022 limited presidents to a single seven-year term, the introduction of a new constitutional order could create ambiguity regarding the continuity of those limits. Even if not explicitly intended as a reset mechanism, such a transformation inevitably introduces flexibility into questions of tenure and succession. Geopolitical pressures also help explain the acceleration. Tokayev has pointed to profound changes in global trade, security alignments, and technological competition. In a world increasingly shaped by sanctions regimes and geoeconomic fragmentation, Kazakhstan seeks to project institutional coherence and responsiveness. Constitutional reform, in this sense, becomes a signal of adaptive capacity. At the same time, the draft completes the political transition that began after the unrest of January 2022. Although earlier amendments removed former President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s constitutional privileges, the 1995 framework remained largely intact. The new proposal replaces that structure altogether, extinguishing residual legal ties to the Nazarbayev era and consolidating a distinct political phase under Tokayev’s leadership. Sovereignty as Constitutional Doctrine A defining feature of the draft is the elevation of sovereignty, independence, territorial integrity, and the unitary nature of the state to foundational, effectively immutable principles. This language carries clear geopolitical resonance, particularly in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While Kazakhstan continues to pursue a multi-vector foreign policy, the constitutional entrenchment of territorial integrity reinforces the state’s insistence on inviolable borders. The draft also expands restrictions on foreign financing of political parties and introduces stricter transparency rules for foreign-funded non-governmental organizations. These provisions reflect a doctrine of symmetrical distance: limiting political influence from any external actor, whether Russia, Western governments, or other international stakeholders. The emphasis is not ideological alignment but institutional insulation. Language and Identity: Managed Ambiguity The most domestically sensitive amendment concerns the status of Russian. The draft alters the phrasing from Russian being used “on an equal...

Constitution

Six Months to Rewrite the State: Kazakhstan Accelerates Its Constitutional Reset

Speaking on September 8, 2025, in his Address to the People of Kazakhstan in Parliament, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev outlined plans for new political reforms. At the time, nothing in his remarks suggested either the scale of the changes his initiative would entail or the speed with which they would be implemented. Yet on March 15 of this year, Kazakh citizens will vote in a referendum on a new draft Constitution, developed at high speed over roughly six months, including a period of state-organized public consultations and expert review. According to materials published on the Constitutional Court’s page on the state portal, where the final version of the draft Basic Law was published, the starting point for constitutional reform was Tokayev’s proposal to create a unicameral Parliament. The president announced the idea on September 8, 2025. A month later, on October 8, an order was signed establishing a working group on parliamentary reform. Over the following months, the group reviewed more than 2,000 proposals from citizens and experts. At the fifth session of the National Kurultai in January 2026, Tokayev summarized the proposals on parliamentary reform, the scope of which had already expanded beyond restructuring Parliament to revising the Constitution as a whole. On January 21, a Constitutional Commission was established, comprising 130 members, including representatives of the National Kurultai, legal experts, officials from central government agencies, media executives, chairpersons of maslikhats, members of regional public councils, and academics. The first draft of the Basic Law was published on January 31. On February 11, a “referendum” version of the draft was presented to the president, incorporating comments received, including his own. Tokayev had outlined his remarks the previous day during an expanded government meeting. The question to be put to voters in March is: “Do you accept the new Constitution of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the draft of which was published in the mass media on February 12, 2026?” What is particularly notable is that on September 8, the president had cautioned against haste, calling parliamentary reform a “very serious issue” and stating that rushing it would be inappropriate. “This reform must be the subject of detailed discussion in civil society, among experts, and, of course, in the current Parliament… I believe that, given the extraordinary nature of the reform, the discussion will take at least a year, after which a nationwide referendum could be held in 2027, and then the necessary amendments could be made to the Constitution,” Tokayev said at the time. A little over five months later, however, the country is preparing for changes that extend beyond the initial proposal to abolish the upper house. At a government meeting, Tokayev emphasized that “no one is setting the task of negating the significance of the current Constitution, which has played a huge role in all of our country's achievements over the past 30 years. “Nevertheless, it should be noted that it was adopted when our country was just getting on its feet and bears the imprint of the first...

Referendum

Kazakhstan To Hold Referendum on New Constitution On March 15

Kazakhstan will hold a constitutional referendum on March 15 in what President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has described as “a complete reboot” to modernize government and introduce more institutional accountability. The date of the referendum was announced in a notice that was published on the presidential website on Wednesday. It said the draft of the proposed new constitution will appear in the media on Thursday, and the question to be posed to voters in March is: "Do you accept the new Constitution of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the draft of which was published in the mass media on February 12, 2026?" The Central Election Commission will oversee the referendum, according to the notice. The outlines of the proposed changes are already circulating publicly in Kazakhstan, which has made a number of amendments to the current constitution dating from the mid-1990s. The planned changes include replacing the current bicameral parliament with a single chamber and introducing the post of vice president. “The proposed amendments will allow for the redistribution of powers, strengthen the balance in the system of checks and balances, and, most importantly, increase the effectiveness and sustainability of all political institutions,” Tokayev has said. Analysts view the shift from personality-driven rule to more institutionalized governance as a step toward building a more resilient state capable of managing leadership transitions and broadening stakeholder participation. While the foundation for greater representation is being laid, critics say progress should move faster, particularly in expanding political and civic space. If sustained, however, the current trajectory could open the way to deeper and more durable reform through strengthened institutional processes.

Healthcare

Tokayev to Personally Oversee Probe Into Medical Insurance Fund Embezzlement

President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has pledged to personally oversee the investigation into large-scale embezzlement from Kazakhstan’s Social Medical Insurance Fund (SMIF) and has instructed the government to accelerate the rollout of a unified national healthcare information system. The move follows a series of alarming revelations about systemic fraud in the medical insurance system. In January, Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov ordered that control of the SMIF be transferred to the Ministry of Finance to bring financial flows under tighter oversight. Subsequent audits uncovered widespread violations, including the registration of fictitious patients, the billing of unnecessary medical services, duplicate financing of procedures, and even the provision of treatments to deceased citizens. The findings have been submitted to law enforcement agencies for investigation. Addressing an expanded government meeting, Tokayev stated that fraudulent activity in the social sector had reached “unprecedented proportions,” and emphasized that the Prosecutor General’s Office and other relevant bodies must investigate all instances of wrongdoing, regardless of the statute of limitations or the individuals involved. “I will personally oversee the investigation process,” the president declared. Tokayev attributed much of the abuse to the absence of a unified digital infrastructure in Kazakhstan’s healthcare system. More than 30 separate and unintegrated information systems are currently in use, creating serious gaps in oversight and traceability. In response, the president has ordered the government to finalize the development of a single, centralized state medical information system by December 1. The new platform is expected to provide full traceability of services and financial transactions, and to digitize all SMIF operations. Tokayev emphasized that digitization is essential for ensuring transparency and the proper use of public funds. As The Times of Central Asia previously reported, earlier this year, the government also announced it would cover health insurance contributions for more than one million unemployed citizens.

Armed Forces

In the Line of Duty: Hazing, Tragedy, and Reform in Kazakhstan’s Armed Forces

Kazakhstan mandates universal military conscription for men between the ages of 18 and 27, with a standard service term of 12 months. Tens of thousands of young men are drafted into the military each year during two annual call-up periods. Evasion is illegal, yet public attitudes toward mandatory service are increasingly ambivalent. Officially, military service is presented as an honorable civic duty, with promises of educational preferences and social benefits upon completion. In practice, many young Kazakhs seek ways to avoid conscription, motivated not just by the disruption of a year out of civilian life, but by fears of hazing and abuse. ‘Hazing’ refers to a covert system of informal hierarchy in which senior conscripts intimidate and mistreat new recruits. Although the Ministry of Defense claims such practices were eradicated in the 2010s through reform and a transition to a mixed staffing model combining conscripts and contract soldiers, hazing has remained a persistent issue. According to a Demoscope survey from September 2025, 37.8% of Kazakhstanis said violence and informal power structures in the army are excessive. Among respondents aged 18–29, support for a full transition to a professional contract army was significantly higher, reflecting broader concerns about conditions and safety. For many families, a draft notice is not a matter of honor but a potential sentence. The Dark Side of the Barracks: Fatalities and Scandals Kazakhstan’s armed forces have faced a troubling number of peacetime deaths in recent years, prompting growing public concern. Between 2020 and 2022, 259 servicemen died across the armed forces and other security agencies, with at least 11 more deaths reported in early 2023. In late 2025, MP Nartay Sarsengaliyev noted that 270 soldiers had died in three years. In January 2026 alone, three incidents raised alarms: a National Guard serviceman died in Shymkent on January 6; another soldier died from a gunshot wound in Ust-Kamenogorsk on January 23; and a serviceman in the Zhambyl region died from a firearms injury on January 27. While the causes ranged from illness to the accidental mishandling of weapons, many families suspect hazing and abuse as underlying factors. Several high-profile cases from 2025 further damaged public trust. In January, 18-year-old Dastan Kurmanbek was found dead from a gunshot wound in a Saryozek unit; the military declared it a suicide, but his family alleged murder. That spring, 18-year-old Salamat Sabitov, who was drafted despite serious health issues according to his family, died of meningitis just one month into his service. In September, 19-year-old Dinmukhamed Shynarbek was found dead in a military unit in the Almaty region; officials again claimed suicide, but relatives rejected the explanation and demanded an independent investigation. Officers have also been implicated in violence. In summer 2024, a conscript in the Mangystau region was reportedly shot in the face by a superior officer. One of the most publicized cases was that of 22-year-old National Guard soldier Yerbayan Mukhtar, who suffered a severe head injury under suspicious circumstances in a barracks bathroom in December 2023. Though military doctors...