Kazakhstan Opinions - The Times Of Central Asia

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SCO Summit

Opinion: China’s Diplomatic Power Play Unfolds in Tianjin

On August 31, the next SCO Plus summit will begin in the Chinese city of Tianjin and run through to September 1. Judging by the list of participants, China, under Chairman Xi Jinping, is positioning itself to challenge the United States for influence over the global geopolitical agenda. As part of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit, Xi will host a formal banquet for the attending heads of state, according to the Chinese Foreign Ministry. Xi is also scheduled to chair the 25th meeting of the SCO Council of Heads of State and lead the expanded SCO Plus session - the largest since the establishment of the organization - where he will deliver a keynote address. Clues to the themes of Xi’s speech can be found in the diverse array of leaders expected to attend. Chinese Deputy Foreign Minister Liu Bin confirmed at a Beijing press conference that among the SCO member states, participants will include Russian President Vladimir Putin, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon, and Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev. Several leaders from non-member states will also join, including Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan; Mongolian President Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh; Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev; Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto; and Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedov, whose participation suggests Ashgabat’s cautious but growing interest in regional dialogue. Also in attendance will be the prime ministers of Armenia (Nikol Pashinyan), Cambodia (Hun Manet), Nepal (Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli), Egypt (Mostafa Madbouly), Malaysia (Anwar Ibrahim), and Vietnam (Pham Minh Chinh). The summit will also host key international institutional leaders, including UN Secretary-General António Guterres; SCO Secretary-General Nurlan Yermekbayev; CIS Secretary-General Sergey Lebedev; ASEAN Secretary-General Kao Kim Hourn; CSTO Secretary-General Imangali Tasmagambetov; EAEU Chairman Bakytzhan Sagintayev; and AIIB President Zhou Ji. Kazakhstan will be prominently represented. In addition to President Tokayev, three high-profile Kazakhs mentioned above - Yermekbayev, Tasmagambetov, and Sagintayev - will attend in their capacities as heads of international organizations. Their presence signals Astana’s growing diplomatic weight and reflects the strategic outreach led by Tokayev, himself a former UN Deputy Secretary-General. This background likely contributes to the rapport between Kazakhstan and Guterres. The summit will also inevitably draw attention due to the presence of the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders, figures central to the ongoing realignment in the South Caucasus. Both Baku and Yerevan have increasingly distanced themselves from Moscow, favoring closer ties with Turkey and the United States. The recent peace agreement between Aliyev and Pashinyan, signed in the presence of President Trump, underscored the growing American role in the region and the diminishing influence of Russia. While Moscow appears willing to tolerate this shift, Tehran views it with deep concern, especially after its recent 12-day conflict with Israel. Russia, for its part, seems to be signaling disengagement from the region. Its silence in response to Baku and Yerevan’s Western overtures suggests strategic apathy, if not withdrawal. Beijing, of course, is...

Middle Corridor

Analysis: How Kazakhstan’s New Road and Rail Projects Are Boosting the Economy

Kazakhstan is the largest landlocked country in the world, located at the strategic crossroads of Eurasian trade routes. This year, the country launched two major infrastructure projects: the Trans-Kazakhstan Railway Corridor and the construction of a new Center-West Highway, which will connect the capital, Astana, with Kazakhstan’s western regions. How the Center-West Highway will reshape Kazakhstan’s economy and logistics The Center-West Highway will link Astana to the country’s western territories, providing direct access to the Middle Corridor, also known as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR). Passing through the towns of Arkalyk, Turgay, and Irgiz, the route will cut the distance to western Kazakhstan by more than 560 kilometers (about 350 miles). It is expected to improve interregional connectivity, stimulate socio-economic growth, increase the capacity of the transport network, and strengthen Kazakhstan’s role as a transit hub. Deputy Minister of Transport Maksat Kaliakparov told The Times of Central Asia that construction is still in its early stages. Repairs on the Astana-Korgalzhyn-Karazhar section are currently funded by the Development Bank of Kazakhstan, with completion planned for 2026. “The remaining sections are still in the design phase, and financing is being secured,” Kaliakparov said. “This year we plan to complete feasibility studies for unpaved sections, approve project documentation for the Arkalyk-Egindikol and Irgiz-Torgay stretches, and explore public-private partnerships to attract investment.” Beyond improving domestic transport links, the Center-West Highway is set to become a crucial part of the TITR, providing a shorter and more reliable route to Kazakhstan’s Caspian ports of Aktau and Kuryk. This will speed up transit, increase freight volumes, and reduce logistics costs for both domestic and international shippers. According to Kaliakparov, the project also includes modern roadside infrastructure: logistics hubs in Arkalyk and Irgiz, service stations, cafés, hotels, and an intelligent traffic monitoring and control system. “It is also important to introduce a number of innovative and environmentally friendly solutions, such as stormwater treatment facilities, energy-saving LED lighting, and the use of recycled materials. Environmental requirements will also be taken into account, including the preservation of animal migration routes using environmentally friendly solutions such as underground passages and eco-bridges,” emphasized Kaliakparov. However, despite its significant advantages, the project faces a number of challenges. The key ones among them are financing, complex terrain and geological conditions, seasonal limitations, and low population density along parts of the route, which affect its commercial viability. Kaliakparov added: “The road requires significant investment, especially for the construction of new sections, some of which pass through hard-to-reach areas. It is also necessary to take into account the short construction season in the northern and central regions of the country”. According to him, the highway is being designed with the local climate in mind. Kazakhstan’s continental weather patterns, sharp temperature fluctuations, steppe and semi-desert landscapes, hydrological studies, erosion prevention measures, and strict environmental compliance are taken into account. Once completed, the Center-West Highway is expected to increase freight traffic to 5–6 million tons per year, cut delivery times between central and western Kazakhstan by 30–40%,...

Diplomacy

Kazakhstan Showcases Middle Power Role in Washington D.C.: Kazakh Ambassador Ashikbayev Spreads the Message

Like it or not, the world is moving away from unipolar dominance and entering an era of multipolarity where national interests increasingly counter the globalist ambitions of some major powers. In this evolving landscape, as the major powers adjust to new geopolitical realities, an increasing number of states are becoming more comfortable operating autonomously as sovereign nations. Against this backdrop, Kazakhstan is emerging as a middle power, conscious all the same of the risks associated with remaining neutral in the oft-times bitter rivalries between major powers. Over the past twenty years, Kazakhstan has consistently signaled that it will not be drawn into the strategic maneuverings of foreign powers, instead pursuing its own national interests in a measured fashion – rather like the other Central Asian states – so as not to undermine regional stability. Accordingly, Astana offers good offices to foster dialogue and reconciliation among countries and blocs affected by conflict and/or heightened strategic competition. Murat Nurtleu, Kazakhstan’s Foreign Minister, underscores just that point: “In this era of geopolitical competition, Kazakhstan’s role as a bridge between East and West is more vital than ever.” These words not only highlight Kazakhstan’s confidence and expanding role as a rising middle power but aim to mitigate the potential consequences of great power overreach, whether in Central Asia or elsewhere. In a recent interview in Washington DC with this writer, Ambassador Yerzhan Ashikbayev of Kazakhstan to the United States elaborated: “Kazakhstan is a middle power, which means, broadly speaking, a country that holds an influential position in the international system, especially in Eurasia. Maintaining peaceful relations with our neighbors – major, middle, and minor powers – is a top priority for us. We work to shape outcomes beyond our own borders, keeping in mind our national interests, always fostering friendly and mutually beneficial ties – a modus vivendi – with our neighbors.” It is well-known that Astana’s global diplomatic strategy prioritizes fair trade and aims to strengthen inter-regional economic ties – especially in transport, logistics, finance, and communications. It views economic development – with an emphasis on building an economically stable middle class across ethnicities – as key to national unity and regional stability. It is less known that Kazakhstan, in its diplomatic pragmatism, winces at unequal power relations, preferring to focus on long-term equity outcomes over short-term efficiency in matters of economic development. Ambassador Ashikbayev emphasizes that “Kazakhstan’s foreign policy opens space where dialogue can flourish. Guided by pragmatism, we will concentrate on practical matters like communication, quality investment flows, fair commerce, energy, and critical minerals.” He insists that “for the international system to flourish, it should function well for all, promoting peace and the common good for the majority. That is what we export - peace.” U.S. Secretary of State Marcio Rubio also emphasizes the need to keep peace front and center: “President [Trump] wants to end wars. He’s not a fan of wars. He thinks wars are a waste of time and a waste of lives. And we’re going to continue to do everything we can and engage...

Opinion

“Where a Russian Soldier Treads, That’s Ours”: Kazakhstan in the Crosshairs of Putin’s Neo-Imperial Playbook

In June 2025, Russian President Vladimir Putin made a chilling declaration at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum: ‘There’s an old rule – wherever a Russian soldier sets foot, that’s ours.’ Far from a metaphor, this line encapsulated the Kremlin’s evolving foreign policy doctrine. It is a doctrine where military occupation becomes territorial acquisition, and where presence becomes ownership. But this ideology did not appear overnight. It has been systematically constructed through years of rhetorical groundwork, beginning with Putin's 2014 remark at the Seliger Youth Forum: ‘Nursultan Nazarbayev created a state on territory where there had never been a state. The Kazakhs never had statehood.’ In 2021, speaking at a Moscow press conference, Putin went further, describing Kazakhstan as ‘a Russian-speaking country in the full sense of the word.’ These comments expose a geopolitical logic that fuses cultural affinity, historical denial, and military dominance. They form the pillars of what scholars like Marlene Laruelle and Timothy Snyder describe as Russia’s ‘narrative imperialism’: the use of historical revisionism and linguistic hegemony to delegitimize the sovereignty of neighboring states. Nowhere is this doctrine more clearly manifest than in the cases of Ukraine and Kazakhstan. In Ukraine, the justification for annexing Crimea in 2014 and launching a full-scale invasion in 2022 relied heavily on the protection of Russian-speaking populations and claims of historical unity. In Kazakhstan, the groundwork is rhetorical – but eerily similar. In 2014, Putin reversed Nikita Khrushchev’s legacy by annexing Crimea, which Khrushchev had transferred to the Ukrainian SSR in 1954. At the same time, Kremlin-aligned voices began revisiting Khrushchev’s failed plan to remove five northern regions of Kazakhstan to form Russian 'Virgin Lands'. This was not a mere administrative reform: the plan involved transferring the fertile, Slavic-populated regions of Akmolinsk, Kostanay, Pavlodar, North Kazakhstan, and East Kazakhstan regions from the Kazakh SSR to the Russian SFSR. The objective was both economic and political -- to consolidate agricultural output under Moscow's direct jurisdiction and reduce the autonomy of the Kazakh republic by undermining its territorial coherence and ethnic composition. These areas were the backbone of Khrushchev’s Virgin Lands Campaign and held great strategic value. The proposal sparked resistance from within the Kazakh leadership, most notably from Premier Zhumabek Tashenov, who openly opposed the Kremlin's intentions. As a result of his opposition, he was dismissed from his position, but he succeeded in preserving Kazakh territorial integrity. These northern regions, like Crimea, are demographically significant: they are home to a large ethnic Russian population, many of whom speak only Russian, consume Russian media, and express nostalgia for Soviet-era unity. Cities like Petropavlovsk, where Russians still outnumber Kazakhs, mirror the pre-2014 situation in Donetsk and Luhansk. In 2023, a group calling itself the ‘People’s Council of Workers’ in Petropavlovsk released a video declaring independence based on the 1937 Constitution of the Kazakh SSR. Prosecuted for inciting separatism, they nonetheless reflected growing latent support for Russian intervention. Even earlier, in 2014, Russian ultra-nationalist Eduard Limonov made headlines by urging Russia to annex Northern Kazakhstan during...

Geopolitics

Opinion: Why Russia May Stop Oil Supplies via the CPC

The global confrontation between the West and East could, quite literally, devastate the economies of Central Asian countries in the near future. Some experts argue that the position Kazakhstan and its regional neighbors now occupy, four years into the war between Russia and Ukraine, has spiraled beyond anyone’s control. The disruption began with Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian infrastructure used by the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which indirectly impacted oil flows from Kazakhstan to Europe. On August 2, several media outlets, citing sources within the Ukrainian military, reported an attack on the Central Asia-Center (SAC) gas pipeline running through Kazakhstan. The attack allegedly caused an indefinite halt in gas deliveries that Russia had been sending in reverse flow to Uzbekistan. Kazakhstan also uses this gas domestically. Shortly after, the energy ministries of both Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan denied reports of any damage to the pipeline. Nonetheless, Ukraine’s classification of the SAC pipeline as a legitimate target remains on record. Notably, although Kazakhstan’s Foreign Ministry has issued a formal protest to Kyiv over the CPC attacks, it has yet to reveal any official response from the Ukrainian side. Kazakhstan thus finds itself in an extremely vulnerable position: its national budget is heavily dependent on oil exports, while its southern infrastructure increasingly relies on imported gas. For example, the planned conversion of Almaty’s TPP-2 to gas is unfeasible without stable fuel supplies. In other words, Kazakhstan has become fully dependent on developments in the Russian-Ukrainian war. Compounding the geopolitical tension, U.S. President Donald Trump has pursued an aggressive and often unpredictable foreign policy approach. He has threatened sanctions against Russia’s economic partners if they continue buying oil from President Vladimir Putin. This pressure is primarily directed at China and India, both of which have already signaled they do not intend to comply with Trump’s ultimatum. In response, Russia may adopt symmetrical countermeasures targeting American companies, specifically, by halting oil flows via the CPC. That’s the view of JPMorgan analysts, who suggest that such a move could drive global oil prices up to $80 per barrel. This would benefit Russia but would deal a serious blow to Kazakhstan, which relies on CPC to export up to a million barrels of oil per day. Unfortunately, Kazakhstan lacks viable alternatives. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, often cited as a backup route, depends heavily on Caspian Sea shipping, which is increasingly hindered by shallow waters. Heavier oil barges dispatched from Aktau to Baku risk running aground. As a result, Kazakhstan's oil volume transported via BTC is expected to increase by only 300,000 tons this year, from 1.4 to 1.7 million tons. It's worth noting that CPC exports oil produced by American firms Exxon and Chevron, the British company Shell, Italy's ENI, and France’s TotalEnergies. These are the very firms Russia could target in retaliation. As Trump’s statements deepen the appearance of a Russia-versus-West conflict, energy infrastructure could increasingly become a battlefield. Hints of Moscow’s readiness to act have already emerged. In mid-July, President Putin signed a decree mandating...

Opinion

The Rise of Regionalism in Central Asia: From Divisions to Dialogue

In recent years, Central Asia has undergone a remarkable transformation — from a region historically marked by political divisions and competing national interests, to one increasingly characterised by cooperation and dialogue. Today, Central Asian countries are exploring the idea of strategic autonomy and greater regional solidarity, not as an abstract ambition, but as a practical response to the shared challenges and opportunities they have. A key institutional vehicle for this evolving cooperation is the Consultative Meeting of Central Asian Leaders. Unlike formal international summits, this forum allows for open and informal dialogue between heads of state. It is valued precisely because it enables leaders to discuss sensitive regional matters candidly, without the constraints of protocol. The momentum for regional cooperation is clearly growing, and this forum has become a symbol of Central Asia’s desire to take its future into its own hands. Beyond this, the countries of Central Asia cooperate through platforms such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the Organisation of Turkic States, both of which offer multilateral mechanisms for addressing regional security, economic integration, and cultural exchange. Importantly, what was once a region of competing national agendas is now evolving into a space of shared strategic vision, including coordinated positions in international forums such as the United Nations. Additionally, in recent years, the foreign policies of Central Asian countries have demonstrated more and more coordination and regional alignment, especially in their engagement with external partners. This shift is reflected in the emergence of multilateral dialogue formats between Central Asia and key global actors. Notably, the European Union–Central Asia Summit, most recently held in Samarkand in 2025, underlined a shared commitment to regional connectivity, sustainable development, and mutual security. Similar formats have been institutionalised with other global players, such as the C5+1 format with the United States, focusing on green transition, economic reforms, and regional security. Germany has also advanced a Central Asia–Germany high-level dialogue, including the “Berlin Initiative,” aimed at promoting green energy, vocational training, and the rule of law. Meanwhile, Italy has launched its Central Asia + Italy format as part of its strategy to diversify partnerships in Eurasia and promote economic diplomacy. These platforms reflect a common approach, where Central Asian countries are increasingly choosing to engage as a bloc, rather than solely through bilateral channels. This enhances their negotiating capacity, visibility, and strategic coherence on the global stage. While each country maintains its sovereignty and specific foreign policy priorities, there is a growing recognition that regional solidarity amplifies voices and leverage in an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape. This shift aligns with the broader regional identity-building efforts under the Consultative Meetings of Central Asian Leaders, and reflects a pragmatic understanding that shared challenges — such as water management, climate adaptation, and migration — are better addressed collectively and in concert with international partners. Common regional challenges also drive this growing convergence. Climate change, water scarcity, and labor migration are issues that transcend borders. One of the most pressing concerns is the region’s vulnerability due to...