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Russia Looking to Export Gas to China via Kazakhstan

Russia continues to try to reorient its natural gas exports from Europe to Asia and is planning a new pipeline route to China that would pass through Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan stands to benefit not only from transit fees, but could also import some Russia gas for regions in northeastern Kazakhstan that are desperately in need of more energy sources. The Russian plans are bad news for Turkmenistan as China is Turkmenistan’s main gas customer and Turkmen authorities were hoping to sell China even more gas. On November 15, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandr Novak mentioned the pipeline plan on the sidelines of a Chinese-Russian forum in Kazan, Russia. Novak said such a project is still only being discussed, but Russian media outlet Kommersant wrote on November 18 that there are already three options for the pipeline. All three possibilities pass though northeastern Kazakhstan, but Kazakhstan’s level of participation in the pipeline is different in each variation. One of the projects would require Kazakhstan to build a pipeline for gasification of the northeastern Pavlodar, Abai, and Karaganda provinces. A second proposal would include only the Abai and Zhetysu provinces. Russian gas giant Gazprom’s financial obligation also changes depending on the pipeline project selected. The most expensive option for Gazprom would cost more than $10 billion to construct and would not operate at full capacity until 2034. All versions foresee at least 35 billion cubic meters of Russian gas (bcm) shipped via the pipeline with Kazakhstan receiving some 10 bcm, which would greatly alleviate recent power shortages in northeastern Kazakhstan. Despite Novak saying the pipeline project was only being discussed, Kazakhstan and Russia appear well along in their planning. In early May, Kazakh Ambassador to Russia Duaren Abayev gave an interview to Russia’s TASS news agency and mentioned there was a “roadmap” for supplying 35 bcm of gas to China via Kazakhstan. Russia already exports gas to China via the “Sila Sibiri” (Power of Siberia) pipeline and expects that in 2024 the pipeline will for the first time reach its full capacity of 38 bcm. Construction of Sila Sibiri-2 with a planned capacity of some 50 bcm has been delayed due to China’s reluctance to loan Russia money for construction, differences over price, and China’s increasing purchases of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Novak commented on Sila Sibiri-2, saying the pipeline project involving Kazakhstan was separate and the Russian government will continue to negotiate with China about construction of Sila Sibiri-2. Russia is seeking to replace its former main customer, the European Union. Prior to the Kremlin launching its full-scale war on Ukraine in February 2022, the EU was buying between 150-160 bcm of Russian gas annually. The EU sharply cut back on Russian gas imports in response to the invasion of Ukraine and in 2023 imported less than 43 bcm. Russia’s pivot to Asia for gas exports targets the Chinese market, but Gazprom is looking to take any possible Asian customers and has found some in Central Asia. Russia’s surge into the Asian...

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One Person Killed, Five Wounded in Incident on the Tajik-Afghan Border

On the night of November 18, an attack occurred on the Tajik-Afghan border in Zarbuz Gorge, Shamsiddin Shokhin District, resulting in the death of a Chinese citizen and injuries to five others, including four Chinese nationals and a local resident. The incident was reported by Radio Ozodi, citing sources familiar with the situation. Tajik officials have not yet issued a statement on the matter. Details of the Attack According to sources, the attack originated from the Afghan side of the border, though it remains unclear whether the perpetrators were drug smugglers or militants. The injured were transported to the Shamsiddin Shokhin District Hospital, and law enforcement officials have launched an investigation at the scene. The presence of Chinese citizens in the area is connected to the operations of a gold mining enterprise located in the Dashti-Jum Nature Protection Zone, which adjoins the Zarbuz Gorge. The region is near the Sari Ghor border outpost, making it particularly susceptible to incursions from Afghan territory. A History of Tensions The Shamsiddin Shokhin section of the Tajik-Afghan border, stretching over 100 kilometers, has long been one of the most problematic areas. It has witnessed numerous incidents, including hostage-takings and attacks on Tajik citizens and military personnel. The region was also the site of the infamous 1993 attack on the Sari Gore border post, when Islamist militants targeted Russian border guards. This latest incident, however, marks the first time a Chinese citizen has fallen victim to violence at the border. Despite assurances from the Taliban that Afghan territories will not harbor terrorist groups, the Tajik authorities remain concerned about instability in the neighboring country. In 2023, there were multiple incidents involving drug smugglers and militants crossing into Tajikistan. On August 6, Tajikistan’s State Committee for National Security (SCNS) reported the killing of three members of the extremist group Ansarullah. The SCNS stated that the individuals had smuggled weapons, ammunition, explosives, and communications equipment into Tajikistan, which were later discovered in caches. Independent verification of the November 18 attack is difficult, but the incident highlights Tajikistan's ongoing vulnerability to threats from Afghanistan.

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Tajik MMA Fighter Chorshanbiev, Imprisoned For Criticizing Authorities, Faces New Charges

In Tajikistan, the well known MMA fighter and prominent blogger Chorshanbe Chorshanbiev, already serving an 8.5-year prison sentence, has been handed an additional four years on new charges. Journalist Anora Sarkorova reported the development on November 18, which was later confirmed by sources at Radio Ozodi. Chorshanbiev, known for criticizing Tajik authorities in the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region while residing in Russia, was deported to Tajikistan in December 2021. By May 2022, he was convicted of “public calls for violent change of the constitutional order” and sentenced to 8.5 years in prison. Details of the additional sentence remain unclear, but it is speculated to be related to either violations of prison regulations or involvement in a fight. Recently, Chorshanbiev was transferred from a penal colony in Khujand to a pre-trial detention center in Dushanbe. Chorshanbiev’s legal troubles began in December 2021 when he was deported from Russia for traffic violations. Upon his arrival in Dushanbe, he was arrested, and the Tajik prosecutor's office initiated charges against him, alleging incitement of social and national discord and calls to overthrow the state system. However, during the investigation, the first charge was dropped. His trial garnered significant public attention. Prominent athletes in Russia voiced their support for him, and his defense team argued that the case rested on a single piece of evidence: a video recorded in November 2021. In the video, Chorshanbiev commented on violent clashes in Khorog, during which three people were killed and dozens injured. The prosecution claimed his statements amounted to incitement of protests against the government. A political scientist’s analysis, presented during the trial, characterized Chorshanbiev’s remarks as a call for rebellion. However, his lawyers contested this interpretation and requested a re-evaluation of the video. In court, Chorshanbiev maintained that he had no intention of destabilizing the country. Despite the divided expert opinion, Chorshanbiev was convicted, and his case continues to provoke debate.

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Fueling Growth: IFC Strategic Initiatives for Sustainable Development in Central Asia – An Interview With Hela Cheikhrouhou

With its headquarters in Washington, D.C. the International Finance Corporation (IFC) was established in 1956 as the private-sector arm of the World Bank. The institution offers advisory, and asset-management services to promote investment in developing countries. Recent ventures in Central Asia include solar power projects in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, and an entrepreneurship scheme for women and young people in Tajikistan. TCA spoke with Hela Cheikhrouhou, IFC Vice President for the Middle East, Central Asia, Türkiye, Afghanistan, and Pakistan about the IFC’s work in Central Asia. TCA: Can you please give us an overview of IFC's performance in Central Asia for fiscal year 2024 (July 1, 2023, to June 30, 2024)? IFC had a pivotal year in Central Asia, making strides in sustainable development and inclusive growth across the region. Our efforts concentrated on climate finance, infrastructure, agriculture, and supporting smaller businesses. By coupling investments with advisory support, we helped expand the role of the private sector, creating jobs, promoting financial inclusion, strengthening infrastructure, and supporting the region's green transition. In the fiscal year 2024, IFC committed over $1 billion to Central Asia. This includes about $400 million in long-term financing from our own account, $600 million in mobilization, and $35 million in short-term trade and supply-chain finance to facilitate trade flows. Alongside these financial commitments, we engaged in advisory projects focused on improving financial inclusion, developing innovative public-private partnerships (PPPs), and advancing climate initiatives and gender equality. Our results this year underscore our commitment to fostering sustainable, inclusive growth, and enhancing the resilience and sustainability of Central Asian economies. TCA: Can you highlight some of the IFC’s key achievements in Central Asia this year? In addition to the strong financial commitments mentioned earlier, IFC expanded its presence in various sectors, including finance, capital markets, renewable energy, agriculture, and infrastructure. Through our advisory services, we helped structure impactful PPPs at the sectoral level. A major focus this year has been strengthening local financial markets. IFC invested $228 million across ten financial institutions in Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Up to half this amount was dedicated to supporting women entrepreneurs and rural enterprises. We also helped these financial institutions expand portfolios related to their micro, small, and medium enterprise (MSME) businesses, advance climate finance, foster digital transformation, and issue the region’s first sustainability, social, and green bonds. Supporting MSMEs has enabled entrepreneurs to grow their businesses and generate employment. In the past fiscal year alone, IFC-supported projects created around 35,000 direct jobs, including opportunities for over 13,000 women across the region. These efforts have been further bolstered by targeted investments and projects in individual countries across the region. In Uzbekistan, IFC, together with the World Bank, financed a new solar plant equipped with the country’s first battery energy storage system. Once completed, the plant is expected to provide electricity access to around 75,000 households in the Bukhara region. As part of its broader support for the Uzbek government’s efforts to reform its chemical sector, IFC assisted the State Asset Management Agency in privatizing Ferganaazot,...

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ADB Launches ‘Glaciers to Farms’ Initiative to Combat Climate Change in Central Asia

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has unveiled a new regional initiative, Glaciers to Farms, aimed at promoting sustainable water management and food security in Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and Pakistan. The program addresses the severe effects of accelerated glacial melt caused by climate change. Backed by the Green Climate Fund (GCF), ADB will conduct risk assessments of glacial melt in Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan to establish a scientific and technical foundation for the program. Regional Cooperation for Glacier Preservation On November 14 in Baku, Azerbaijan, a declaration of support for glacier preservation was signed by several regional leaders: Azerbaijan’s Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources Mukhtar Babayev, Kazakhstan’s Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources Yerlan Nyssanbayev, Kyrgyzstan’s Minister of Natural Resources, Ecology and Technical Supervision Meder Mashiev, Tajikistan’s Committee on Environmental Protection Chairman Bahodur Sheralizoda, and Uzbekistan’s Minister of Ecology, Environmental Protection, and Climate Change Aziz Abdukhakimov. They were joined by ADB President Masatsugu Asakawa and GCF Chief Investment Officer Henry Gonzalez. “As melting glaciers change water flows, disrupt lives, and destroy ecosystems, we must act now,” said Asakawa. “As Asia and the Pacific’s climate bank, we are pleased to be joined by key partners to launch this program to drive international collaboration and deliver results where they matter most—on the ground, in communities at risk.” The Urgent Need for Action Temperatures in the region are expected to rise by up to 6 degrees Celsius by 2100. The resulting loss of glacial mass poses a dire threat to ecosystems, jeopardizing water supplies for agriculture and hydropower and endangering the livelihoods of over 380 million people. The Glaciers to Farms program aims to mobilize up to $3.5 billion in funding from ADB, GCF, governments, development partners, and the private sector. Beyond investments in water and agriculture, the program will prioritize vulnerable communities in fragile mountain regions that are most threatened by glacial melt. Global and Regional Efforts The United Nations General Assembly has declared 2025 the International Year of Glacier Preservation, with Tajikistan set to host the International Conference on Glaciers’ Preservation in Dushanbe next year. At a high-level event in Baku on November 12, Tajikistan's President Emomali Rahmon underscored the importance of preventing further glacier melt and preserving fragile ecosystems. Rahmon highlighted the establishment of the International Trust Fund for the Preservation of Glaciers under the United Nations’ auspices and noted the UN’s recent adoption of a resolution—initiated by Tajikistan and France—declaring 2025-2034 the Decade of Action for Cryospheric Sciences. This resolution calls for enhanced efforts to safeguard glaciers globally. Rahmon also proposed creating a Regional Coordination Center for Glaciology in Dushanbe under the World Meteorological Organization’s guidance. The center would study the impact of climate change on glaciers in collaboration with development partners.

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Human Rights Activists Urge Belgian Authorities to Halt Deportation of Tajik Citizens with Children

The human rights organization Freedom for Eurasia has called on Belgian authorities to halt the deportation of Sitoramo Ibrohimova and her four children to Tajikistan. Human rights activists argue that the 37-year-old, currently being held in a Belgian migration detention center, risks facing persecution in Tajikistan, where she is accused of ISIS affiliation and participation in the war in Syria. Her name is reportedly included on a list of individuals linked to extremism by the National Bank of Tajikistan. Ibrohimova is married to Murodali Halimov, who was sentenced to 23 years in prison in Tajikistan on terrorism and mercenary charges. Leyla Nazgul Seyitbek, head of Freedom for Eurasia, informed Radio Ozodi that while Belgium has not agreed to extradite Ibrohimova, they have decided on deportation. “She is depressed, and her 12-year-old son has stopped speaking due to stress,” Seyitbek said. In addition to her children, Ibrohimova cares for the two daughters of her sister, Nigora Saidova, who was deported from Poland and sentenced to seven years in Tajikistan for allegedly “supporting terrorism.” According to The Insider, Tajikistan has requested Ibrohimova's extradition, though activists insist the terrorism charges are fabricated. Since 2015, when the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan (IRPT) was banned, many IRPT supporters and other opposition members have fled, seeking asylum in Europe. However, reports from European media, including The Insider and Polityka, indicate that EU authorities frequently deport Tajik refugees without full consideration of their cases, despite concerns over their safety if returned to Tajikistan. The Times of Central Asia is covering the detention of Tajik opposition figure Dilmurod Ergashev, who was deported from Germany. In recent years, several political refugees have faced deportation from the EU and were subsequently sentenced to long prison terms in Tajikistan. Examples include Abdullo Shamsiddin, son of IRPT activist Shamsiddin Saidov, who received a seven-year sentence, and Bilol Kurbonaliev from Group 24, sentenced to ten years. Farrukh Ikromov, deported from Poland, received a 23-year sentence, and Hizbullo Shovalizoda, an IRPT member deported from Austria in 2020, was sentenced to 20 years in prison in Tajikistan.